WV-Sen: Rockefeller Retiring

[politicallefty]

Link.

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This one's pretty much out of play unless Capito is toppled in the primary.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well crap.  Who runs?  Goodwin?

[krazen1211]

Great news!

[Beet]

Really bad news. Now we really need that Kerry seat.

[Vosem]

The two big Democrats whose names come to mind immediately are former Senator and Joe Manchineel acolyte Carte Goodwin and state Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who came in second in the 2011 special gubernatorial primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Thanks!

[politicallefty]

The two big Democrats whose names come to mind immediately are former Senator and Joe Manchineel acolyte Carte Goodwin and state Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who came in second in the 2011 special gubernatorial primary.

It would be smart for Democrats to at least get some insurance in this race. Capito would practically be a lock in the general, but you can't rule out anything in the Republican primary. If anything, Rockefeller's retirement may actually increase the possibility of a strong Tea Party candidate. I won't be one to underestimate the Republicans' ability to blow what should be a safe pick-up.

[DrScholl]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

[Tender Branson]

Shelley Moore Capito vs. Natalie Tennant would be a nice race to watch.

[DrScholl]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

That didn't stop people from declaring the race Safe Republican. All I'm saying is don't count your chicken, especially after all the overestimation last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Nick Rahall is apparently interested. McKinley says he'll be watching Capito's votes but had nice things to say about her. Fun fact: she voted for the Ryan budget, he voted against. WV Dems don't mind primaries- even Tomblin, an incumbent, had one. Dunno what they'll do here.

[Maxwell]

This looks incredibly likely Republican pick-up, but I know Republicans have the magic ability to take defeat from the jaws of victory, so I'm cautiously optimistic about Capito's chances.

[minionofmidas]

Have there been any polls on this? I would think Capito's race (for the GE) just got harder, not easier. Not that she's not a very strong candidate etcpp, not saying that.

[RogueBeaver]

EDM: Two local polls showed her beating Rocky 48-44- and that was in 2011, before the coal speech.

[Keystone Phil]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

That didn't stop people from declaring the race Safe Republican. All I'm saying is don't count your chicken, especially after all the overestimation last year.

That's fine but I'm saying the dynamics on the GOP side in each race are totally different. It isn't exactly a sound comparison.

A better comparison would be with Wisconsin 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.

[Keystone Phil]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.

I wouldn't classify a U.S. Senate race as "local." It's going to be an election during the sixth year of Obama's Presidency. It will very much be a national race.

[Skill and Chance]

North Dakota redux possible. Republican candidate supposedly unstoppable, loses in the ended to credible Democrat.

Capito is established and popular. Berg was neither.

And West Virginia is much more Democratic in local level than North Dakota.
And Berg didn't have to fight against the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint.

I wouldn't classify a U.S. Senate race as "local." It's going to be an election during the sixth year of Obama's Presidency. It will very much be a national race.

Historically, when the president's party gets creamed in year 2, they tend to break even in year 6.  In other words, I wouldn't count on a sixth year itch to carry the GOP in 2014.  2010 was probably Obama's sixth year itch.  Obama hasn't managed to sink local Dems in WV in 2008 or 2012 when he was actually on the ballot.  Capito was probably better off with Rockefeller than Generic D after Rockefeller's "I hate coal" speech.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Goodwin is our best chance here. Capito seems unbeatable but some insurance would be good. And if we lose, a pro-choice Republican from West Virginia isn't all that bad either.

[Skill and Chance]

Goodwin is our best chance here. Capito seems unbeatable but some insurance would be good. And if we lose, a pro-choice Republican from West Virginia isn't all that bad either.

I prefer Tennant, who would negate the "first woman" advantage Capito has (does that matter locally?).  She also had an extremely strong 2012 performance running on the same ballot with Obama. 

Rahall, who has expressed interest, also has a lot of cred, but his weak 2012 performance isn't a good sign.  Tomblin would probably be the absolute best D option, but there's no way he runs.

 

[Miles]

Rahall is interested. Despite his tenure, he's actually the same age as Manchin. 'Kinda funny if Rahall and Markey both end up in the Senate after each arriving in the House in 1976.

Goodwin's name is also being floated, but he'd be better off going for Capito's House seat.

[retromike22]

Actually, this is probably worse for Capito, since those on the right who although they were upset about her being pro-choice, would support her anyway since she was the best candidate against Rockefeller. But now, since it's an open seat, the Republican may believe they have the advantage either way, and may not want a pro choice Republican to be their next Senator. I think it's really likely that Capito will lose to a more conservative Republican, and then that Republican will in turn lose to an acceptable Democrat. It's going to be Delaware 2010 again.

[Vosem]

Actually, this is probably worse for Capito, since those on the right who although they were upset about her being pro-choice, would support her anyway since she was the best candidate against Rockefeller. But now, since it's an open seat, the Republican may believe they have the advantage either way, and may not want a pro choice Republican to be their next Senator. I think it's really likely that Capito will lose to a more conservative Republican, and then that Republican will in turn lose to an acceptable Democrat. It's going to be Delaware 2010 again.

Let's face it, the likeliest conservative Republican to beat Capito, if that happens, is David McKinley. And McKinley's no pushover. North Dakota 2012 this could be, but Delaware 2010 almost certainly not -- it'll be more obvious earlier that McKinley's vulnerable than occurred for Castle. Also, considering WV's recent sharp turn to the right, they could totally just elect that more conservative person to the Senate. Just because Tea Party challenger Ted Cruz beat David Dewhurst didn't automatically lose him the general election (Mike Lee's another good example...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not exactly a surprise; if you're 75 and can't guarantee re-election, why bother running again?

Primaries should be fun.