Markey v. Gomez - What To Watch For Tonight

[JRP1994]

Massachusetts Senate Special Election
Ed Markey (D) v. Gabriel Gomez (R)

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT:

1. Ed Markey has been leading in the pre-election polls by around 10%. If the race is not called immediately in his favor, we could be in for an interesting night.

2. Pay attention to which areas begin reporting vote-totals first. If results from Boston come in first, Markey’s lead will be exaggerated. If the rural countryside comes in first, Gomez’s statewide numbers will be exaggerated.

3. If the race has not been called within a few minutes, watch the suburbs. Markey will dominate the urban areas, while Gomez will win the rural areas. If Markey leads in the suburbs, Gomez is finished. If Gomez leads in the suburbs, the night could run late.

[ElectionsGuy]

Massachusetts Senate Special Election
Ed Markey (D) v. Gabriel Gomez (R)

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT:

1. Ed Markey has been leading in the pre-election polls by around 10%. If the race is not called immediately in his favor, we could be in for an interesting night.

2. Pay attention to which areas begin reporting vote-totals first. If results from Boston come in first, Markey’s lead will be exaggerated. If the rural countryside comes in first, Gomez’s statewide numbers will be exaggerated.

3. If the race has not been called within a few minutes, watch the suburbs. Markey will dominate the urban areas, while Gomez will win the rural areas. If Markey leads in the suburbs, Gomez is finished. If Gomez leads in the suburbs, the night could run late.

By the rural countryside, you mean the Boston exurbs in Worcester, Plymouth and parts of Norfolk Counties right? The rural west is Very democratic, and will probably support Markey in the 70's. I'm expecting Gomez to win Worcester, Plymouth, and Barnstable Counties while being competitive in Essex, Norfolk, and Bristol Counties. As far as Middlesex County goes, Markey will dominate the immediate suburbs by Boston, but Gomez will do better in the more rural outer parts of the county besides Lowell. I'm expecting Markey to get around 56% in Middlesex. If the race doesn't get called, the best counties to watch are Middlesex, Worcester, and Norfolk and comparing what Gomez wins to what Brown won.

[minionofmidas]

To illustrate. That's Brown's 2012 defeat, or roughly Gomez' realistic ceiling.

[WalterMitty]

middlesex county.

markey is going to underperform in middlesex, the question is by how much.  he will do well in the inner suburbs (his districts)...but the outer suburbs and rural areas of middlesex look to be very unfriendly to him.

also watch turnout in suffolk county, boston in particular.  he needs to run up the score there, obviously.  chelsea's turnout will be absolutely horrible, plus gomez may do slightly better there than most republicans due to his being hispanic.

[WalterMitty]

To illustrate. That's Brown's 2012 defeat, or roughly Gomez' realistic ceiling.

i disagree.

gomez *can* certainly win bristol and hampden counties.  i expect gomez to do better in springfield than most republicans.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't agree that Markey will underperform in Middlesex, but I think his overperforming is less likely than I thought it was last night.

[WalterMitty]

I don't agree that Markey will underperform in Middlesex, but I think his overperforming is less likely than I thought it was last night.

there are going to be a lot of blue towns in middlesex, particularly north and west of 128,

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't agree that Markey will underperform in Middlesex, but I think his overperforming is less likely than I thought it was last night.

there are going to be a lot of blue towns in middlesex, particularly north and west of 128,

I suppose it depends on what you consider 'underperforming'. He's obviously going to win it, I would guess at around or a little above his statewide margin.