2014 Senate and House Predictions

[Talleyrand]

In Maine, do you anticipate Collins retiring? If she runs, I think she'll get 65+% of the vote.

[Talleyrand]

Senate- Republicans+6

Massachusetts, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, South Dakota, and West Virginia (However if Brown and Cotton don't run, those seats are ours and I could see Begich and Landrieu pulling out an upsets, though I wouldn't bet on them right now).

House- Republicans+2

Democratic Gains- Gary Miller, Mike Coffman, Tom Reed, and Bill Young (with retirement)
Republican Gains- Ann Kirkpatrick, Mike McIntyre, Nick Rahall, Collin Peterson (with retirement), Ron Barber, and Patrick Murphy

[Talleyrand]

Democratic Gains- Gary Miller, Mike Coffman, Tom Reed, and Bill Young (with retirement)

Never struck me as the kind of guy to retire (and I highly doubt the seat'd go Dem even if he did.

Who are potential candidates for the seat if he were actually to retire? I put it as a gain because I though Ehrlich did okay this year, considering who she was running against, and if/when he retired, it would be ripe for a pickup.

Didn't the NRCC have to dissuade Young from retiring, too?

[Talleyrand]

I would think Lee Terry is only vulnerable in Democratic wave years or presidential cycles. With the lower turnout, I think he'll be okay in 2014, but a heavy target in 2016.

State Senator Heath Mello would be a very attractive candidate. He's only 33 and was chosen to chair the Appropriations Committee in the Republican-controlled (technically nonpartisan) legislature. His district is in southern Omaha.