Matheson has a pretty prodigious machine, so either Love would need to run a better-funded race and have an equally good environment as in 2012 or Republicans would need a better candidate, like state Senator Aaron Osmond (who I believe I know about from reading your posts). I don't know how Kirkpatrick is safer than the others; Kirkpatrick is in a Romney >50% seat (Barber is in a Romney >40% seat and Synema should be the safest in a 51-47 Obama district).
True. Though I think Matheson's machine might not quite quite as well in a non-presidential year and in a district that was rendered even more conservative than his old one was. I do hope Matheson survives, then runs for Governor in 2016 though. We need another Dem Governor.
Oh, and as a side note, on another forum, I compiled a list of the possible 2014 GOP challengers to Matheson, and my (heavily biased) opinions on each one. Here it is:
Mia Love: Mia Love is currently still Mayor of Saratoga Springs (I think her term comes up this year, but it may be a five year term that ends in 2015), and seeing as how she lost by only about 700 votes last year, it's very likely she'll try again. And to be honest, I think she may just beat Matheson this time. If she doesn't though, I predict she'll try for a different seat. She's young and popular though, so she has a lot of options open. I think she might try for Governor in 2016.
Merrill Cook: Merrill Cook (no relation to gubernatorial candidate Peter Cooke) is one of those odd guys who held elective office a while back and can't seem to shake the desire to hold office again, even when it's absolutely certain that they'll never be an elected politician ever again. He's also a crazy guy who lost at convention to a Republican that lost badly to Matheson, who took Cook's seat in 2000. Every two years since then, Cook tries and fails to get elected to something (including Matheson's seat), and provides a good joke every time. This time he ran for Salt Lake County Mayor and lost to a guy with anger issues and a guy who literally published falsehoods under a false name. Cook hates Matheson, so he may try again for Matheson's new seat. He's the same age as Bill Clinton and Dubya though, so he may retire for good soon.
Morgan Philpot: Philpot is like Merrill Cook, in that he hates Matheson and really sucks at getting elected to anything. Philpot's difference is that he's younger, has never been elected to federal Congress, and hates Governor Herbert and Obama more than Matheson. I think he's likelier than Cook to run against Matheson, but will serve the same role.
Carl Wimmer: He's a former state Rep (resigned to run against Matheson this last year in fact), but lost to Mia Love at convention. He's also the guy who wanted to
effectively criminalize miscarriages. Yeah, seriously. He had some hilarity going on after his loss to Mia Love regarding his
false claim of being hired by the Nevada GOP to fix their state party, but he's young, and I think he'll be back.
Stephen Sandstrom: Like Wimmer, Sandstrom is a former state representative. He also lost to Mia Love and is (was) also kind of crazy, since he's the guy who wanted to bring the Arizona-style immigration laws to Utah even after the LDS Church and a large portion of the rest of the state went "no that's stupid". Since then he's
apparently met with several illegal immigrants and changed his tune. I'm thinking that tune-changing may be part of a future bid for Congress, but I doubt it. He's (now) hated by the influential enforcement-only crowd in the Utah GOP and his old buddies would love to campaign against him.
Aaron Osmond: Yes, we seriously have an Osmond as a state senator here in Utah. This is not a joke. He actually represents part of my home city of West Jordan (though he isn't my own state senator), and has a decent reputation. He's actually charismatic and fairly reform-minded (for a Utah Republican), wanting to ban "boxcar bills" (basically opening a bill file, giving it a generic title, then waiting until the end of the legislative session to give it bill language), so he could have a chance if he wanted to run on a "clean slate" campaign. Also young-ish and etc. Doesn't have any scandals besides wanting to gut sex education in schools.
I think he may try for Governor in 2016, or Senator in 2018.
Thomas Wright: He doesn't have a Wiki or other page (only a Twitter page), but he's the Utah GOP State Chairman. He's done a pretty good job (though in Utah, you only have to have a pulse to do a fine job as GOP party chair), and seems to be a good advocate for the GOP. He's young and noncontroversial. His Democratic counterpart Jim Dabakis has gotten elected office, so I think he may want to "one-up" now-State Senator Dabakis by knocking down the Utah Dem's last hope in Congress. My gut feeling is that he's going to try for Governor in 2016 (especially if Herbert retires) though.
Mike Winder: I didn't have Mike Winder in the original list, but he could very well be a contender for Matheson's seat. He's the current Mayor of West Valley City, Utah's second largest city and a growing multicultural hub (if I remember correctly, it's population of Hispanics and other minorities is the biggest in Utah. Winder is young, dynamic, moderate, has really helped his city.... And he published articles promoting his city under a false name (Richard Burwash). Winder lost the GOP primary for Salt Lake County Mayor this year partially because of the Burwash thing, but time will probably heal that wound and Winder might try for Matheson's seat, though I think he'll try again for County Mayor in 2016.
There's also rumors of
Josh Romney wanting to build a political future in Utah, and
he was approached to run against Matheson in 2010, but I don't think he'll go for it this time. He's even more of a political newbie than the rest of these weak candidates (apart from Mia Love, who I think is learning from her mistakes last year), and Matheson has faced every single one of them down.
Possibly, but he strikes me as the kind of politician that can be roped into a scandal easily.
