2014 Senate and House Predictions

[Donerail]

Senate: D 48+2, R 50 (ties broken in favor of the Democrats)

GOP+3
GOP+5: LA, MT, SD, WV, MA
Dem+2: GA, KY

Louisiana & Montana: GOP pickup from incumbent
South Dakota & West Virginia: GOP pickup from open
Massachusetts: GOP pickup (open, special)
Georgia: Dem pickup (incumbent defeated in primary)
Kentucky: Dem pickup from incumbent

House: Dem +3

[Donerail]

Democratic Gains- Gary Miller, Mike Coffman, Tom Reed, and Bill Young (with retirement)

Never struck me as the kind of guy to retire (and I highly doubt the seat'd go Dem even if he did.

[Donerail]

Democratic Gains- Gary Miller, Mike Coffman, Tom Reed, and Bill Young (with retirement)

Never struck me as the kind of guy to retire (and I highly doubt the seat'd go Dem even if he did.

Who are potential candidates for the seat if he were actually to retire? I put it as a gain because I though Ehrlich did okay this year, considering who she was running against, and if/when he retired, it would be ripe for a pickup.

Didn't the NRCC have to dissuade Young from retiring, too?

Didn't hear about the NRCC thing, but Bill Young strikes me as the kind of guy who'll stay in Congress (as chair of Defense Appropriations) well beyond the point where he should retire (namely, when he starts seeing things that aren't there), and the people will happily keep re-electing him (a local blogger compared him keeping his seat as Chair of the Defense subcommittee like Tampa Bay hosting a Super Bowl).

The thing about Ehrlich is, she did well electorally, but she ran a pretty nasty campaign. Her mailers were not the kind of thing you run against someone as well-respected and beloved as Bill Young. If the seat suddenly went vacant, the Democrats would probably run someone like former State Rep. and possible St. Petersburg Mayoral candidate Rick Kriseman or County Commissioner Charlie Justice. The Republicans could easily win the seat with State Sen. Jeff Brandes (Tea Party type, multimillionaire), State Sen. Jack Latvala (moderate Senate R leader) or former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker.

[Donerail]

Democratic Gains- Gary Miller, Mike Coffman, Tom Reed, and Bill Young (with retirement)

Never struck me as the kind of guy to retire (and I highly doubt the seat'd go Dem even if he did.

Who are potential candidates for the seat if he were actually to retire? I put it as a gain because I though Ehrlich did okay this year, considering who she was running against, and if/when he retired, it would be ripe for a pickup.

Didn't the NRCC have to dissuade Young from retiring, too?

Didn't hear about the NRCC thing, but Bill Young strikes me as the kind of guy who'll stay in Congress (as chair of Defense Appropriations) well beyond the point where he should retire (namely, when he starts seeing things that aren't there), and the people will happily keep re-electing him (a local blogger compared him keeping his seat as Chair of the Defense subcommittee like Tampa Bay hosting a Super Bowl).

The thing about Ehrlich is, she did well electorally, but she ran a pretty nasty campaign. Her mailers were not the kind of thing you run against someone as well-respected and beloved as Bill Young. If the seat suddenly went vacant, the Democrats would probably run someone like former State Rep. and possible St. Petersburg Mayoral candidate Rick Kriseman or County Commissioner Charlie Justice. The Republicans could easily win the seat with State Sen. Jeff Brandes (Tea Party type, multimillionaire), State Sen. Jack Latvala (moderate Senate R leader) or former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker.

I believe Lavalta lives in the Bilirakis seat, not this one. 

Latvala lives in Clearwater, which is in Young's seat. His current Senate district includes the Pinellas parts of Bilirakis and the northern half of Young's, but he's R-Clearwater.