The 2016 Election: A New Beginning

[bballrox4717]

Prominent Events Before the 2014 Midterms

-   Obama wins the debt ceiling fight: Obama, as promised, refused to negotiate with the Republicans over raising the debt ceiling, and the business community presses for a deal to be made to protect their interests. The sequestration does not occur either, and in a deal, Congress cuts $1.2 trillion dollars in spending over the next decade in return for $600 billion dollars raised in revenues through cutting loopholes, averting the first two of the mini fiscal cliffs. Democrats bemoan the raised Medicare eligibility (to 67) and the changes in CPI for Social Security, and Republicans promise that in the next budget fight, they will achieve further cuts with lower taxes. The Tea Party promises to primary legislators who voted for the debt ceiling increase.
-   The “nuclear option” in the Senate does not occur, and Mitch McConnell promises that the filibuster be used in “extraordinary circumstances.” Harry Reid promises that if the Republicans filibuster too much legislation, the nuclear option occurs after the midterms.
-   Throughout a series of smaller bills, Florida senator Marco Rubio sponsors immigration reform, though less ambitious than the DREAM Act. It is the most major piece of bipartisan legislation that has succeeded in passing Congress since Obama took office, and many political analysts believe that this mid -2014 accomplishment provides the first step for Congress to move forward.
-   An effort to ban assault style weapons fails to pass Congress, though an initiative to provide background checks to potential gun owners succeeds.
-   Temporary budget measures continue as the president and Congress cannot agree to a yearly budget. Rumors state that after the midterms President Obama will use the State of the Union to pressure Congress into passing a budget, as well as a new Jobs package.
-   GDP grows at a rate of 2.6 percent in 2013 and 3.5 percent in 2014. Economists credit higher economic confidence from moving past the fiscal cliffs, a housing market recovery and an upcoming economic boom from natural gas for the better state of the economy. Unemployment has fallen to 6.6 percent in Nov 2014.
-   Many environmentalists are growing more concerned about fracking and natural gas. However, the majority of the country approves of the push for natural gas since it is improving the economy.
-   All of the president’s nominees for the cabinet are approved, though former senator Chuck Hagel faces a difficult confirmation process, and narrowly passes.
-   Foreign Policy: The withdrawal from Afghanistan has begun, though there has been stagnation on the front of Iran. Intelligence reports that Iran still has the ability to make a bomb, but hasn’t taken any major steps forward. Many are arguing that the sanctions have worked and that they should be pulled. Egypt’s Morsi has taken excessive power and many fear he has become a second Mubarak but more religious. Syria has fallen to the rebels, but many fear Syria will become a terrorist state. Obama has not ruled out intervening to set up a new Democracy in the state.
-   Obama as of Nov 2014 has a 53 percent approval rating and a 40 percent disapproval rating.
-   Scott Brown did not run for the special election replace former Massachusetts senator John Kerry, and Ed Markey defeated Will Weld for the seat. Brown confirmed he would run for governor in 2014.

[Blackacre]

Color me interested!

[bballrox4717]

The 2014 Midterms

For the midterms, the most prominent issue for the voters was the improving Economy, though many Republicans felt that their party sold them out on issues such as the debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff deal. As a result, several primary attempts were made by the Tea Party. The division in the Republican party led many independent voters to favor the Democrats, who were increasingly being seen as the party more focused on accomplishing legislation. Still, many exit polls indicated that voters felt the deficit was still too high, and that the Democrats were still the party of excess spending.

Overall Results in the House of Representatives: An overall increase of 8 seats for the Democrats. Republicans hold 227 seats, Democrats hold 208.

Notable Results in the Senate

Alaska: Mead Treadwell 48.5 percent, Mark Begich 48.2 percent. R Pickup

Arkansas: Mark Pryor 52.3 percent, Steve Womack 46.9 percent. D Hold

Colorado: Mark Udall 51.1 percent, Jane Norton 47.5 percent D Hold

Georgia: Herman Cain primaries Saxby Chambliss, loses to John Barrow 49.2 percent to 48.9 percent. It is the biggest upset and news grabber of the 2014 election cycle. D Pickup

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell 54.8 percent, Ashley Judd, 44 percent. Democrats believed they could take this one, but Judd proved to be too far to the left for the state.  R Hold

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu leads the jungle primary, and wins the runoff against Bill Cassidy, 50.4 percent to 49.6 percent. D Hold

Maine: Susan Collins does not retire and wins reelection easily. R Hold

Massachusetts: Ed Markey 57.5 percent, Kerry Healey 38.1 percent D Hold

Michigan: Carl Levin does not retire and wins reelection easily.  D Hold

Minnesota: Al Franken 61.4 percent, Michelle Bachmann 36.2 percent D Hold

Montana: Max Baucus does not retire and wins reelection easily. D Hold

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg retires and Cory Booker wins election easily. D Hold

North Carolina: Kay Hagan 50.5 percent, Thom Tillis 48.8 percent D Hold

South Carolina: Tom Davis primaries Lindsey Graham and wins election easily.  R Hold

South Dakota: Tom Johnson retires, Mike Rounds 54.7 percent, Stephanie Sandlin 45.1
percent. R Pickup

West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller retires, Shelley Capito wins election easily. R Pickup

Overall Senate Numbers: 3 R Pickups, 1 D Pickup, 51 D, 47 R, 2 Independents Caucusing with Democrats.

[bballrox4717]

Initial Candidates

After the conclusion of the 2014 midterms, many hopefuls began to announce their candidacies for the Presidency of the United States. Curiously, more Republicans announced the start to their campaigns than Democrats, sparking conversation that former SoS Hillary Clinton was going to enter the race. Prominent Democrats such as Vice President Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Amy Klobuchar started to form exploratory committees but nothing more.

The field of Republican candidates wasn't done growing either; Republicans with national figures like Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Thune, Paul Ryan, and Susana Martinez had yet to deny interest in the Presidency. Initial polling showed a deep divide in the ideal candidate for Republicans, similar to past conflicts since the creation of the Tea Party in 2010 and the 2012 Republican primaries. Chris Christie was the champion of moderates who favored change within the party to fit a growing Democratic electorate, while a candidate who championed right-wing conservatism in the style of Reagan had yet to emerge.

Democrats

Martin O'Malley, Governor of Maryland



Jay Nixon, Governor of Missouri

Republicans

Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey



Bob McDonnell, former Governor of Virginia



Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana



Rick Santorum, former Pennsylvania Senator



Rick Perry, Governor of Texas



Sam Brownback, Governor of Kansas

[tmthforu94]

I feel like I keep bringing this up for different states in different threads...

Georgia requires a run-off if no candidate receives 50%. Otherwise, this is off to a great start!

[bballrox4717]

I feel like I keep bringing this up for different states in different threads...

Georgia requires a run-off if no candidate receives 50%. Otherwise, this is off to a great start!

Okay, if that's the case, Barrow defeats Cain 52.4 percent to 47.6 percent in the runoff. Thanks for the input!

[bballrox4717]

Shake-up in the House of Representatives!

January 5th, 2015: Earlier today, the Ohio Representative John Boehner was ousted from his position of Speaker of the House of Representatives. The vote to reconfirm Mr. Boehner failed to reach 218 votes as Republican representatives displeased with Mr. Boehner's attempts to deal with the Democrats voted for other candidates instead, including the new Speaker, Eric Cantor. After the first vote was held, Mr. Boehner removed himself from the voting to quickly coalesce behind a new candidate.

 Many who voted against Mr. Boehner were not pleased with Mr. Cantor either, viewing him as part of the Republican establishment. However, those who voted against Mr. Boehner wanted to send a message to the leadership that they were unhappy with the direction of the Republican party, and were content on using Boehner's ousting as that message. In his first speech as Speaker, Mr.Cantor outlined his reluctance to take the job over Mr. Boehner but defined his successful candidacy as a duty to the American people.

In the Congressional shuffle, former Republican Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan was named the new House Majority Leader, and officially announced his non-candidacy for the Republican nomination for President. Democrats criticized the coup of Boehner, with House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer calling the Republicans "a disgraceful and divided party more focused on party purity than governing the American people." In other news, Nancy Pelosi stepped down as House Minority Leader and Representative Chris Van Hollen, known for being the Joe Biden's debate stand in for Paul Ryan, was elected as the new Minority Leader.

Susana Martinez to run for President

February 6th, 2015: Susana Martinez, the Governor of New Mexico, has officially announced for her candidacy for the Republican nomination for President today. "These days, there is too much gridlock in Washington and not enough attention on governing. I announce my candidacy for President today to give the great people of America a new voice, a voice that doesn't make it's home in Washington a voice who will fight to help Americans keep their God-given rights that our nation's veterans have fought so hard for, a voice who will fight to keep America as the greatest country this world has ever seen!

Cuomo to pass on 2016 bid

February 11th, 2015: Andrew Cuomo, the Governor of New York, has announced that he will not run for the Democratic nomination for President. "I am focused on governing the great state of New York and will finish out my term instead of fighting Washington's battles." While many have predicted that this is an indicator of a Clinton run for president, Hillary's plans are still unclear, though the Democratic field of candidates has been slow to develop.

John Thune a non-candidate for President

February 14th, 2015: In a press conference in which many believed Thune would announce his candidacy for President, Thune clarified to the media that he will not run for president. "Though I am honored that many of you believe that I could be President of this great country, I cannot at this time accept your party's nomination for President due to familial obligations." Thune had the resources together to place a strong bid for President, and was believed to be a potential front-runner with establishment support, according to an unnamed source, and very abruptly pulled the pieces he had been setting in place in the past year for a potential run.

Rand Paul files for Senate Reelection, not President

February 19th, 2015:Kentucky Senator Rand Paul will be running for reelection, and will not carry his father's legacy - for now. Kentucky law states that a sitting senator cannot run for presidential election and reelection the same year. Instead, Paul will wait until 2020 or 2024 to run for president.

First National Polls of the Presidential Race Out From PPP

Democrats, February 21st, 2015

Other/Undecided: 53 percent
Martin O'Malley: 25 percent
Jay Nixon: 22 percent

Republicans, February 21st, 2015

Chris Christie: 30 percent
Bobby Jindal: 21 percent
Rick Santorum: 18 percent
Susana Martinez: 14 percent
Bob McDonnell: 6 percent
Sam Brownback: 5 percent
Rick Perry: 4 percent
Others: 2 percent

Sources: Clinton likely to enter, other candidates waiting

February 25th, 2015: Sources close to the Clintons state that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will soon announce her candidacy for president, and that potential candidates are hesitant to place together bids with that knowledge. However, the source acknowledges that while Clinton "wants the Presidency, and wants it badly," she is having second thoughts about running. "She's paranoid of another grassroots candidate like [President Barack] Obama," the source states. "The 2008 run damaged her ego and Hillary knows she isn't overly popular with the left wing of the party. Hillary is wondering if she would be better served letting [New York Senator Kirsten] Gillibrand run in her place with her organization." The source also stresses that if Hillary ran, she would have [President] Obama's full support.

[Blackacre]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

[Enderman]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

[Blackacre]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

[Enderman]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

[Blackacre]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

Yeah, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. ....waitaminute, I'm sorry, did you mean Ron Paul instead of Paul Ryan? Then nevermind. I kinda like him, but he is not very similar to the rest of his party and wouldn't make an effective speaker for that reason. If you do mean Paul Ryan, yeah, I hate him.

[Enderman]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

Yeah, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. ....waitaminute, I'm sorry, did you mean Ron Paul instead of Paul Ryan? Then nevermind. I kinda like him, but he is not very similar to the rest of his party and wouldn't make an effective speaker for that reason. If you do mean Paul Ryan, yeah, I hate him.

Do you like Ron Paul? Or do you enjoy he isn't all that like the Republican Party?

[Enderman]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

Yeah, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. ....waitaminute, I'm sorry, did you mean Ron Paul instead of Paul Ryan? Then nevermind. I kinda like him, but he is not very similar to the rest of his party and wouldn't make an effective speaker for that reason. If you do mean Paul Ryan, yeah, I hate him.

Just for your information, I'm not trying to be snooty or anything, I just like to post my ideas on forums, and such, that's why I joined into this entire website...

[Blackacre]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

Yeah, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. ....waitaminute, I'm sorry, did you mean Ron Paul instead of Paul Ryan? Then nevermind. I kinda like him, but he is not very similar to the rest of his party and wouldn't make an effective speaker for that reason. If you do mean Paul Ryan, yeah, I hate him.

Do you like Ron Paul? Or do you enjoy he isn't all that like the Republican Party?

I like Ron Paul. He's not afraid to speak his mind when he doesn't agree with the party's platform. I'd feel the same way if he was a Democrat. He's one-of-a-kind and I respect him for that.

[Enderman]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

Yeah, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. ....waitaminute, I'm sorry, did you mean Ron Paul instead of Paul Ryan? Then nevermind. I kinda like him, but he is not very similar to the rest of his party and wouldn't make an effective speaker for that reason. If you do mean Paul Ryan, yeah, I hate him.

Do you like Ron Paul? Or do you enjoy he isn't all that like the Republican Party?

I like Ron Paul. He's not afraid to speak his mind when he doesn't agree with the party's platform. I'd feel the same way if he was a Democrat. He's one-of-a-kind and I respect him for that.

Well, my other question is, do you like JFK?

[bballrox4717]

Biden To Run For President!

March 1st, 2015: Vice President Joe Biden has entered the race for the Democratic nomination, breaking the ice in which only two candidates, Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley and Missouri Governor Jay Nixon, have entered. Biden ran for President in 1988 and 2008 and carries a reputation for being gaffe-prone, but will enter the race as a favorite as a perceived successor to Obama. Biden currently has a 51/37 favorable/unfavorable rating, though it is unclear how that translate to polling.

No Bush the 3rd for 2016

March 3rd, 2015 Jeb Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush and son of former President George H.W. Bush, has announced that he won't seek the Republican nomination for President. "I've thought long and hard about this decision, and I've decided that the timing isn't right for a Jeb Bush presidency. However, this does not mean that my work for my country for the [Republican] party is done; we still need to work on including more people in the [Republican] party instead of focusing on purity contests. For this reason, I will do whatever it takes to get a Republican back in the White House for our children, so that the United States is a state of prosperity in the future, not a country burdened by trillions upon trillions of debt."

Warner Announces Candidacy



Rubio's In!

March 7th, 2015: Florida Senator Marco Rubio, the architect of the 2014 Immigration Reform, has announced that he will run for the Republican nomination for President. "Today, I announce that I will run for President for our nation's future. This country was good enough to me to offer the achievement of my dreams. Now, I wish to serve my country in a way to help our children achieve the American Dream, to keep that dream possible for as long as I am President."

National Democratic Poll, President

Vice President Joe Biden: 40 percent
Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley: 25 percent
Virginia Senator Mark Warner: 18 percent
Missouri Governor Jay Nixon: 11 percent
Other: 6 percent

National Republican Poll, President

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: 27 percent
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal: 20 percent
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum: 15 percent
Florida Senator Marco Rubio: 13 percent
New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez: 11 percent
Former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell: 5 percent
Texas Governor Rick Perry: 4 percent
Kansas Governor Sam Brownback: 3 percent
Other: > 1 percent

Breaking News: Clinton Makes Shermanesque Statement!

March 21st, 2015: In a press conference in which former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was widely expected to announce her candidacy for President, Mrs. Clinton instead informed the media that she would not accept the Democratic nomination. "If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve," stated Mrs. Clinton before leaving the podium. The announcement comes as a shock, especially since sources insisted that Mrs. Clinton was gathering resources together for a run. Speculation now falls onto New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a protege of Mrs. Clinton whom sources indicated "was very interested in a run if Hillary asked her to go in her place."

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! (VADER VOICE)

[Blackacre]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

Yeah, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. ....waitaminute, I'm sorry, did you mean Ron Paul instead of Paul Ryan? Then nevermind. I kinda like him, but he is not very similar to the rest of his party and wouldn't make an effective speaker for that reason. If you do mean Paul Ryan, yeah, I hate him.

Do you like Ron Paul? Or do you enjoy he isn't all that like the Republican Party?

I like Ron Paul. He's not afraid to speak his mind when he doesn't agree with the party's platform. I'd feel the same way if he was a Democrat. He's one-of-a-kind and I respect him for that.

Well, my other question is, do you like JFK?

Yeah JFK roxks.

OT: great update! Biden 2016!

[Enderman]

Oh no, Speaker Cantor?! NNNOOOOOOOO xD

I've been thinking if Paul would've been Speaker in 2014... :/ that would be interesting...

I hate both of them like the plague.

Wait, do you mean both Cantor, and Paul? Its okay, I respect other peoples thoughts a lot!

Yeah, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. ....waitaminute, I'm sorry, did you mean Ron Paul instead of Paul Ryan? Then nevermind. I kinda like him, but he is not very similar to the rest of his party and wouldn't make an effective speaker for that reason. If you do mean Paul Ryan, yeah, I hate him.

Do you like Ron Paul? Or do you enjoy he isn't all that like the Republican Party?

I like Ron Paul. He's not afraid to speak his mind when he doesn't agree with the party's platform. I'd feel the same way if he was a Democrat. He's one-of-a-kind and I respect him for that.

Well, my other question is, do you like JFK?

Yeah JFK roxks.

OT: great update! Biden 2016!

The main thing I like JFK for is that he revolutionized, and set big goals for NASA. One of my hopes for my future, (that is if politics doesn't work) is to be an astronaut. Do you like Rubio?

[bballrox4717]

Here comes the Democrats!

April 5th, 2015: Within about two weeks of Clinton's Shermanesque Statement,, 3 major Democrats, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, Minneosta Amy Klobuchar, and Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper all announced their candidacies for President. "It's going to be a rocky ride," said Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffle, also notable for chairing Hillary's 2008 run. "Hillary could ended the nomination fight by the end of January if she ran, but let's be realistic. I don't think we see a winner until April." New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is reportedly getting a potential campaign ready, is waiting for final clearance with her family, and hopes to declare by the beginning of May.

Tempers Flare in First Republican Debate

April 26th, 2015: The first Republican debate, hosted by Fox News' Chris Wallace, saw bickering between Governors Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal as the other candidates stood idly back in the background.

"There was no winning that argument between Christie and Jindal. I liked that Susana Martinez made her one moment count when she connected divisions in the Republican party between their losses and the downturn of the country." - Newt Gingrich

"How can we expect to win if we don't nominate a true conservative in this race? Our last two nominees have been a maverick and a moderate Northeasterner. It's time we need new change and fast, and unlike Obama, I'm not afraid of my record. - Bobby Jindal

"Governor, I want to see the part of your record that shows that you can unite Congress into a unified agenda, including Democrats. In New Jersey, we've successfully made our case again and again to the [New Jersey Democratic] party to get the votes to pass a thoroughly conservative agenda. I don't believe for a second that you think of Democrats as humans who can change their minds. You have a preconceived notion and that's not a way a President leads." - Chris Christie

Who do you think Won the debate?

1. Susana Martinez: 23 percent
2. Chris Christie: 20 percent
3. Bobby Jindal: 19 percent
4. Undecided: 19 percent
5. Marco Rubio: 8 percent
6. Rick Santorum: 5 percent
7. Bob McDonnell: 3 percent
8. Sam Brownback: 2 percent
9. Rick Perry: >1 percent

Gillibrand Announces Run For President

[bballrox4717]

Posts might be coming in slow for a little while: I just flew into in the UK and I'm jetlagged; I was  planning on making Iowa/New Hampshire polls for the Republicans and a pre-Gillibrand poll, so that'll be next; I'm really excited to write the Republican nomination fight, it's a going to be a good one.

[badgate]

Is Jindal thinking that Arizona is in the northeast supposed to be a gaffe?

[bballrox4717]

Is Jindal thinking that Arizona is in the northeast supposed to be a gaffe?

Nope, "a maverick and a moderate northeasterner," maverick describing McCain and moderate northeasterner describing Romney. It's not my best writing, and I didn't really intend for that to be a gaffe.

[badgate]

My bad, I read it as calling them both Northeasterners.