Real election results that would have seemed absurd as predictions
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  Real election results that would have seemed absurd as predictions
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Author Topic: Real election results that would have seemed absurd as predictions  (Read 7271 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: January 14, 2013, 05:47:52 PM »

List some election results that would have seemed absurd had you gone back in time and predicted them, and the time that would have maximised its absurdity.

Obama 08

I don't actually think "a black President will be elected in 2008" would ever have been all that absurd a prediction. A black President had been plausible for decades (Powell could have won in 1996) and if you go back far enough to the pre-Civil Rights era, it would be so far in the future it wouldn't seem any more absurd than a lot of things that ended up happening. The real absurd prediction I think would be predicting his 2008 victory in 2000, right after he lost the primary to Rush.

1964

Mississippi voting 87% for the Republican while Vermont voted 66% Democratic would have seemed absurd at pretty much any time, probably right up until Election Day. The most absurd? Maybe 1936, when Vermont was one of two states carried by Landon, while FDR won 97% in Mississippi.

West Virginia, 2012

"A losing Republican will win West Virginia 62-36 in 2012" likewise seemed implausible even up until Election Day, but I think in 1988, when it was one of the few states carried by Dukakis, it would have had the maximum impact.

Blanche Lincoln 2010

Not a Presidential prediction, but I think that predicting that she would lose by 21 points in 2010 despite not having any personal scandals would have seemed absurd for a long time, right until late 2009.


edit: 1000th post!
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2013, 02:37:53 AM »

From what I understand, if you went back to January 2006, and said that Carol Shea-Porter would win a Congressional race in November, people would have looked at you really funny.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2013, 10:59:42 PM »

West Virginia, 2012

"A losing Republican will win West Virginia 62-36 in 2012" likewise seemed implausible even up until Election Day, but I think in 1988, when it was one of the few states carried by Dukakis, it would have had the maximum impact.

I think that such a result has been within the realm of plausibility ever since the 2008 Democratic primaries.  But yeah, in 1988 it would not be so.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2013, 02:01:23 AM »

"In the future, Vermont will be one of the most Democratic states in the nation and Alabama will be one of the most Republican " (pre 1964)

"A black candidate will win North Carolina, Virginia and Florida"

"An openly gay woman will be elected to the senate in Wisconsin."






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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2013, 08:21:20 AM »

"An openly gay woman will be elected to the senate in Wisconsin."

Beating a former Governor, to boot.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2013, 12:08:36 AM »

"An openly gay woman will be elected to the senate in Wisconsin."

Beating a former Governor, to boot.

Considering that Wilma was not only the most sensible person on The Flintstones, but one of the most sensible characters on TV in the 1960s, why wouldn't the voters choose someone who knows how to have a gay old time?

Yabba Dabba Doo!
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2013, 01:01:45 AM »

"An openly gay woman will be elected to the senate in Wisconsin."

Or by name. "Tammy Baldwin will defeat Tommy Thompson for a Wisconsin Senate seat, trailing the Presidential ticket by only about a point" (circa 2000).
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2013, 01:43:35 AM »

How's about: "Claire McCaskill will win reelection in 2012 by 15 points."

That one would have been shocking just a few months ago!
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2013, 01:46:27 AM »

DuPage County will go for a democratic candidate for president back-to-back (albeit narrowly the second go round)
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2013, 01:52:46 AM »

A Democratic ticket will lose Orange County California by only 3 points in 2008.

Might have been mildly shocking during the Reagan years...

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freepcrusher
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2013, 02:05:05 AM »

- a hard core liberal can get elected in the Orlando area (10-15 years ago)
- same sex marriage is legal in some states (20 years ago)
- marijuana is defacto legal in some states (10-15 years ago)
- Michigan will be a RTWFL state (a few months ago)

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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2013, 03:07:53 AM »

- Republicans would sweep all the Class III Senate seats in the rust belt in 2010 (would seem far-fetched after 2008).
-NC-09 would only elect a Republican Congressman by 6 points in 2012, after years of Myrick landslides.


West Virginia, 2012

"A losing Republican will win West Virginia 62-36 in 2012" likewise seemed implausible even up until Election Day, but I think in 1988, when it was one of the few states carried by Dukakis, it would have had the maximum impact.

I remember watching a video of election night 2000 on Youtube with Larry King and Ann Richards discussing the returns. King was surprised that Bush won WV; he said it was a state that "no Democrat should lose."
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Franzl
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2013, 04:27:05 AM »

DuPage County will go for a democratic candidate for president back-to-back (albeit narrowly the second go round)


And Madison County will simultaneously go Republican the second time around...
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morgieb
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2013, 05:35:43 AM »

That the Republicans would've controlled Congress regularly (circa say the 1990's).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2013, 11:36:31 AM »

Gay marriage going 4:4 in 2012 was hard to imagine even a week before.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2013, 11:04:13 PM »

Campbell County being more Democratic than the Kentucky average. This was unthinkable until November 2012.

Seriously, I NEVER thought I'd see the day when this would happen!
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sg0508
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2013, 11:13:35 PM »

The results of 1980 seemed to surprise many considering how volatile a race it was and how tight the nat. vote was until the last debate.  Not many thought it would turn into a 44 state landslide (albeit many southern states were very close).
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2013, 08:44:42 PM »

Telling George Washington that a candidate with 266 electors would not be elected, while winning the popular vote to boot.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2013, 08:46:11 PM »

Another one - West Virginia being more Republican than Kentucky. Unthinkable before 2012.
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nclib
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« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2013, 09:23:49 PM »

John McCain would get through a Republican Presidential primary, and lose in a semi-landslide (around 2001).
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Blackacre
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« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2013, 04:47:03 PM »

Poppy Bush will get fewer terms than his son (after election day 1988)

The woman on the 2008 ticket will be a Republican (2007)

A black man will lead the Republican Primary Polls (I guess after the Civil Rights Act costs the Dems the South)

The first black President will be a Democrat (Reconstruction until Dixiecrats go Republican)

Ohio is a Swing state and New York is not (Gilded Age)

Dick Cheney will become Vice President (when Dick Cheney was the only congressman to defend Reagan's war)

Jimmy Carter's grandson will be essential to getting a Democrat re-elected (1980, up until the 47% comments were leaked)

Virginia votes for the first black president twice, West Virginia votes against him twice (Civil War when Virginia seceded and WV split off to stay in the union)
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soniquemd21921
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« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2013, 05:46:32 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2013, 06:00:05 PM by soniquemd21921 »

A few more:

Southern Illinois becoming more Republican than Northern Illinois (before 1992)

Southwest Pennsylvania becoming more Republican than the Philadelphia suburban counties (before 2004)

New Hampshire becoming more Republican than Vermont (before 1976)

Oregon west of the Cascades becoming more Republican than Oregon east of the Cascades (before 1980)
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Smash255
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« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2013, 06:27:43 PM »

A few more:

Southern Illinois becoming more Republican than Northern Illinois (before 1992)

Southwest Pennsylvania becoming more Republican than the Philadelphia suburban counties (before 2004)

New Hampshire becoming more Republican than Vermont (before 1976)

Oregon west of the Cascades becoming more Republican than Oregon east of the Cascades (before 1980)

[/quote

The suburban Philly, SW PA movement was evident a bit prior to that.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #23 on: January 22, 2013, 03:14:46 PM »

Another one - West Virginia being more Republican than Kentucky. Unthinkable before 2012.



Really unconceivable.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #24 on: January 22, 2013, 04:17:02 PM »

Another one - West Virginia being more Republican than Kentucky. Unthinkable before 2012.



Really unconceivable.

West Virginia didn't become consistently more Democratic than Kentucky until the 40's.
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