UK local by-elections 2013

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

August is, of course, holiday season, and what better way to take advantage of the good weather than to go to what the LNER always used to call "the Drier Side of Britain"?  We have four by-elections on the menu this week on the eastern side of the Pennines, starting with a marginal ward in the historic city of Lincoln, moving north into Yorkshire to visit a Victorian spa town overshadowed by the effects of a later industry; and finishing up, fittingly for the time of year, on the beach at Scarborough.  If you're feeling a little bit under the weather, there is plenty of opportunity to take the waters this week.


BRACEBRIDGE, Lincoln city council; caused by the disqualification of former Conservative councillor Darren Grice for failing to attend any meetings of the council in six months.  Grice, who had been leader of the council until the Conservatives lost control in 2011, had been sitting as an independent; I'm not sure why, but there had been an expenses-based scandal in the city council which may have been something to do with it.

Lincoln has a rather strange topography, being divided into "uphill" and "downhill" halves.  The cathedral, castle and public buildings are "uphill", while the city centre lies in the "downhill" part - a low-lying area next to the River Witham.  One way in which this divide is enforced is through local television, with northern "uphill" Lincoln being part of the Yorkshire TV region and southern "downhill" Lincoln covered by the Central TV region.

Bracebridge ward is the most southerly within the Lincoln city limits and therefore "downhill", although it does not mark the end of the built-up area which continues into the independent town of North Hykeham.  The ward is a rather strange one consisting of two completely independent residential areas on either side of the River Witham, along the Brant Road and the Hykeham Road.  It's a generally well-off area and becomes more well-off the further away from the centre you get.

Lincoln is Labour's bastion within the county of Lincolnshire, and as recently as 2003 Labour won a clean sweep of the city's eleven wards.  However, that year and 2012 are the only times in the last decade that Labour won Bracebridge ward which generally votes Conservative.  Boundary changes in 2007 lopped off part of the ward's grottiest census area, so you would assume that would strengthen the Conservative position in the ward.  The 2012 Labour gain was by just seven votes.  In May's county election this was only the Lincoln county division the Tories held, the Lincoln Bracebridge county division (which hasn't yet been updated to match the new ward boundaries) having a Conservative majority of 38 over Labour with UKIP in third place polling 24%.  (Hartsholme, traditionally the strongest Tory area in the city, went UKIP on a freak three-way split with just six votes separating the UKIP, Conservative and Labour candidates.)

The Tories want their old seat back, and they have nominated David Denman, a senior ecologist.  Geography teacher Katie Vause will try to make the Labour gain.  UKIP's candidate is Elaine Warde, who is retired after a career working at a Young Offenders Institute and being a drug and alcohol counsellor.  The Lib Dem candidate is optical assistant Ross Pepper, and the ballot paper is completed by the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition's Karen Williams, a mental health worker.

Parliamentary constituency: Lincoln
Lincolnshire county council division: Lincoln Bracebridge
ONS Travel to Work Area: Lincoln

David Denman (C)
Ross Pepper (LD)
Katie Vause (Lab)
Elaine Ward (UKIP)
Karen Williams (TUSC)

May 2012 result Lab 719 C 712 UKIP 183 LD 82 BNP 49
May 2011 result C 1134 Lab 932 UKIP 234
May 2010 result C 1632 Lab 1143 LD 775 BNP 206 UKIP 148
May 2008 result C 1126 Lab 517 BNP 230
May 2007 result C 1189/1185/1075 Lab 530/501/458 LD 325 BNP 306 UKIP 204


ASKERN SPA, Doncaster metropolitan borough council, South Yorkshire; caused by Labour councillor Ros Jones being elected as Mayor of Doncaster.

Spa towns in Yorkshire?  Yes, there's a few of them.  Harrogate is almost certainly the most famous, but one of the less well-known is Askern, a small town off the A19 Doncaster-Selby road about seven miles north of Doncaster.  The mineral waters here were first noted in the eighteenth century, and by the end of the nineteenth century there were at least five bathhouses in Askern.  The ward named after the Spa is a generally agricultural area to the north of Doncaster, with Askern and Skellow (a large village off the Great North Road) the main centres of population among tiny villages such as Burghwallis, Norton and Owston which contain a few Doncaster commuters.

You might have thought, given its semi-rural profile, this would be a strong Tory ward.  You'd be wrong: while the Conservatives came close to winning at several points during the later Blair and Brown years, this is now a very safe Labour ward and part of Ed Miliband's constituency.  Don't look at the map, look at what lies under it: coal, and lots of it.  Askern isn't just a spa town; it's a pit town as well, and a pit town of relatively recent vintage.  Askern Colliery opened in 1910 (scaring away the spa's custom, which was dealt the final blow by the Great War) and didn't close until 1993.  The effects of this (even given the dysfunctional nature of Doncaster council) give a high Labour base vote which drowns out the more rural element.  At the most recent election in 2012 Labour polled over 70% in a straight fight with the Conservatives, and in May this one of the ward councillors defeated the incumbent English Democrat Mayor, Peter Davies,
in Doncaster's fourth mayoral election.

The electors of Askern Spa have rather more choice on offer at this by-election than they had in 2012, with seven candidates successfully nominated.  The defending Labour candidate is Iris Beech, from Askern.  The Conservatives have re-selected their 2012 candidate Martin Greenhalgh, from Sprotbrough.  In alphabetical order, the remaining candidates are David Allen for the English Democrats; independent Martyn Bev from Askern; UKIP candidate Frank Calladine (a poster on the Vote UK forum, although he seems to think there is a ten-word limit on his postings), a former Tory Doncaster candidate who gives an address in Adwick-upon-Dearne; TUSC candidate Mary Jackson and the Lib Dems' Adrian McLeay.

Parliamentary constituency: Doncaster North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Doncaster

David Allen (EDP)
Iris Beech (Lab)
Martyn Bev (Ind)
Frank Calladine (UKIP)
Martin Greenhalgh (C)
Mary Jackson (TUSC)
Adrian McLeay (LD)

May 2012 result Lab 2269 C 954
May 2011 result Lab 2205 C 831 EDP 574 Ind 416
May 2010 result Lab 2756 C 1502 EDP 1415
May 2008 result Lab 1165 C 1099 Ind 603 Ind 450 Grn 309
May 2007 result Lab 1491 C 1153 Grn 708
May 2006 result Lab 1527 C 1160 Grn 349 Community Group 289
June 2004 result Lab 1488/1356/1323 Community Group 1217 C 1191/1170 Grn 836

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

NEWBY and RAMSHILL, Scarborough district council, North Yorkshire; caused respectively by the resignations of Independent councillor Mick Cooper and Conservative councillor Nick Brown.

Another town where a nascent spa industry has been completely overtaken, Scarborough started off as a tourist attraction in the 17th century not for its beach, but for the natural spring water bubbling out of the south cliff.  Drinking the waters became accepted as a medicine, and Regency and Victorian terraces sprang up on the top of the cliff, turning Scarborough into one of Britain's first seaside resort.  The coming of the railway from York ensured the resort's success, as did the Victorian Grand Hotel, which when it was built was one of the largest hotels in the world.  While the spa water is no longer fit for human consumption, its contribution to the town's economy continues with the Spa Centre, a large threatre and conference centre built around the original spring.

The Regency and Victorian terraces on the clifftop above the Spa now form the Ramshill ward of Scarborough, and could often be seen as a backdrop to the ITV drama series The Royal (a Heartbeat spinoff broadcast during the Noughties).  Away from the coast, Newby is a suburb of Scarborough on the Whitby road which has become part of the town's urban area although it is still part of a separate civil parish (Newby and Scalby).

The Newby district ward has the same boundaries as the North Yorkshire county council division of the same name, but despite this has very different voting patterns.  Since 2005 the county division has returned Conservative councillor Andrew Backhouse, the present Mayor of Scarborough, with steadily increasing majorities over Labour, but at district level Independent candidates usually top the poll.  Since 2007 the ward's three district seats have split two to Independents and one to the Conservatives.

The smaller Ramshill ward has only two district councillors, one of which has consistently been Conservative since 2003, although the only time in this millennium that the party has topped the poll in the ward is a 2005 by-election.  The other seat was won by Labour in 2003, the Lib Dems in 2007 (Labour not standing) and by an Independent in 2011.  At county level it is combined with Weaponness ward to the south (which covers the Olivers Mount area), in May Weaponness and Ramshill was won by the Conservatives with UKIP just taking second place from an independent.

The defending Independent candidate in the Newby by-election is Bonnie Purchon, who lost her district conucil seat in North Bay ward at the 2011 election.  She is a hotel proprietor from Staxton, on the road to York and was awarded an MBE in the 2001 New Year Honours for services to the hospitality industry in Yorkshire.  The Conservative candidate Sue Backhouse is county councillor Andrew Backhouse's wife and therefore the current Mayoress of Scarborough; she fought the ward in 2011.  Labour's candidate is Carl Maw who stood here in the May county elections, as did the Greens' Helen Kindness, a teacher.  Last on the ballot paper is UKIP's Andy Smith.

In Ramshill the defending candidate is the Tories' Peter Southward, who is a parish councillor in Osgodby, the next village down the coast.  Steve Siddons is the Labour candidate.  Lana Rogers, the Lib Dem councillor for this ward from 2007 to 2011, will try to get her seat back.  Mark Vesey is back on the campaign trail after his fifth place in the county division in May, while UKIP's Michael James will hope to go one better than his runner-up spot in May.

Newby
Parliamentary constituency: Scarborough and Whitby
North Yorkshire county council division: Newby
ONS Travel to Work Area: Scarborough

Sue Backhouse (C)
Helen Kindness (Grn)
Carl Maw (Lab)
Bonnie Purchon (Ind)
Andy Smith (UKIP)

May 2013 county council result C 605 Lab 370 Ind 355 LD 108 Grn 93
May 2011 result Ind 842/841/676 C 720/696/638 Lab 516 Grn 328 LD 288
June 2009 county council result C 685 Lab 406 LD 392 Ind 370 Grn 160
May 2007 result Ind 995/813/362 C 723/639 Lab 466 Grn 339
May 2005 county council result C 1143 Lab 940 LD 739 Ind 575 Grn 143
May 2003 result Ind 945/767/668 LD 615 C 455/406

Ramshill
Parliamentary constituency: Scarborough and Whitby
North Yorkshire county council division: Weaponness and Ramshill
ONS Travel to Work Area: Scarborough

Michael James (UKIP)
Lana Rodgers (LD)
Steve Siddons (Lab)
Peter Southward (C)
Mark Vesey (Grn)

May 2011 result Ind 368 C 350/323 Lab 301 LD 260 Grn 232
May 2007 result LD 322 C 294/275 Ind 285/134 Grn 242 North Yorks Coast Party 138
May 2006 by-election C 258 Ind 244 Lab 174 LD 71
May 2003 result Lab 408 C 378/320

[YL]

The electors of Askern Spa have rather more choice on offer at this by-election than they had in 2012, with seven candidates successfully nominated.  The defending Labour candidate is Iris Beech, from Askern.  The Conservatives have re-selected their 2012 candidate Martin Greenhalgh, from Sprotbrough.  In alphabetical order, the remaining candidates are David Allen for the English Democrats; independent Martyn Bev from Askern; UKIP candidate Frank Calladine (a poster on the Vote UK forum, although he seems to think there is a ten-word limit on his postings), a former Tory Doncaster candidate who gives an address in Adwick-upon-Dearne; TUSC candidate Mary Jackson and the Lib Dems' Adrian McLeay.

Parliamentary constituency: Doncaster North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Doncaster

David Allen (EDP)
Iris Beech (Lab)
Martyn Bev (Ind)
Frank Calladine (UKIP)
Martin Greenhalgh (C)
Mary Jackson (TUSC)
Adrian McLeay (LD)

Allen stood (and came a rather distant second) in the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner election and Jackson stood in the Doncaster mayoral election this year, getting 3.1% (not bad for TUSC...).

Oh, and a bit of silliness: the local football club was called "Askern Villa" for a time.

[ObserverIE]

Lincoln, Bracebridge

Lab 38.7 (-2.5)
Con 32.2 (-8.6)
UKIP 23.1 (+12.6)
Lib Dem 5.0 (+0.3)
TUSC 0.9 (+0.9)

Doncaster, Askern

Lab 54.0 (-16.4)
Lib Dem 12.1 (+12.1)
UKIP 10.7 (+10.7)
Con 10.4 (-19.2)
Ind 4.9
Eng Dem 4.5 (+4.5)
TUSC 3.3 (+3.3)

Scarborough, Ramshill

Lab 32.5 (+12.4)
UKIP 25.5 (+25.5)
Con 20.9 (-1.6)
Green 11.5 (-4.0)
Lib Dem 9.6 (-7.8)

Scarborough, Newby

Con 35.2 (+8.9)
UKIP 26.4 (+26.4)
Lab 18.2 (-1.6)
Ind 13.2 (-17.0)
Green 7.0 (-5.6)

Lab gain Bracebridge from Con/Ind
Lab gain Ramshill from Con
Con gain Newby from Ind

[doktorb]

Oh, TUSC

[YL]

I haven't seen the figures, but of the two Scarborough wards Ramshill was a Lab gain from Con and Newby was a Con gain from Independent.  UKIP were second in both.

[Leftbehind]

Oh, TUSC

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Doncaster#2013

Not sure why the left is going backwards in Newby with each election. 

[minionofmidas]

Lincoln has a rather strange topography, being divided into "uphill" and "downhill" halves.  The cathedral, castle and public buildings are "uphill", while the city centre lies in the "downhill" part - a low-lying area next to the River Witham.  One way in which this divide is enforced is through local television, with northern "uphill" Lincoln being part of the Yorkshire TV region and southern "downhill" Lincoln covered by the Central TV region.

Oh wow, lol.

[ObserverIE]

South Lakeland, Windermere Bowness North

Lib Dem 60.9 (-4.1)
Con 35.0 (+5.1)
Lab 4.1 (-0.9)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

With ten by-elections to cover this week, your columnist must apologise for not having sufficient time to cover all of these polls in the level of detail to which readers have become accustomed.  There is a very wide spread this week, with two polls in the West Country, two in East Anglia, four in the East Midlands, one in a Home Counties ward stuffed full of old money, and one in Carlisle.  There is a strong disability theme this week, and two amputees feature in this week's column.

WADEBRIDGE EAST, Cornwall council; caused by the resignation of controversial Independent councillor Colin Brewer, for reasons which will be outlined below.

This urban/rural division covers the eastern half of the town of Wadebridge together with the parish of Egloshayle and part of St Kew parish (the villages of St Kew, St Kew Highway and Chapel Amble) to the north and east of Wadebridge.

Wadebridge East was won at the first unitary Cornwall council election in 2009 by Colin Brewer, long-serving independent district councillor for Wadebridge ward on the former North Cornwall district council and also long-serving county councillor for Wadebridge and St Minver division on the old Cornwall county council.  Judging by the election results in Wadebridge from the Noughties, he had a significant personal vote, and was elected in 2009 fairly comfortably with 44% of the vote, to 33% for the Conservatives and 23% for another independent.

Unfortunately Brewer heaped ignominy on himself in March 2013 for reasons which went viral on the internet after the comedian Adam Hills ranted about it on the Channel 4 disability rights and comedy programme The Last Leg (this video is not safe for work due to swearing):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOcAIGFma5Q

Yes, he was the councillor who said that disabled children should be put down, and it prompted his resignation from Cornwall council.  With the scheduled May 2013 elections imminent no by-election was held to replace him, but there was enough time in between for Brewer to decide that, actually, he'd rather stand for election again and let the electorate decide.  The electors of Wadebridge East gave him just 25% of the vote, but that was enough to win on a freak vote split with all six candidates for the division polling between 11% and 25%.  Brewer beat the Lib Dem candidate by just four votes.

Having been restored to the council by his electors, Brewer promptly dug himself straight back into exactly the same hole by agreeing to do an interview with the Disability News Network.  It didn't end well, and Brewer found himself under investigation by the council's monitoring officer for further insensitive remarks in the same vein.  After being censured by the monitoring officer, who pretty much said he would have disqualified Brewer had he had the power to do so, Brewer resigned from Cornwall council for the second time in less than six months.

This time there will be a by-election to replace Brewer.  The new independent candidate is Tony Rush, the Mayor of Wadebridge.  Rush's predecessor as Mayor Steve Knightley, the Lib Dem candidate beaten by Brewer in May, tries his luck again, as do the UKIP candidate Rod Harrison, a former milkman and Methodist preacher, and Labour's Adrian Jones, a Wadebridge town councillor and chair of the local Chamber of Commerce, who was awarded an MBE for his work in New York City after 11th September 2001.  Completing the ballot paper is the Conservative candidate, Egloshayle resident Stephen Rushworth, a Cornwall cabinet member until losing his seat in Padstow in May.

Parliamentary constituency: North Cornwall
ONS Travel to Work Area: Wadebridge

May 2013 result Ind 335 LD 331 UKIP 208 Lab 161 C 150 Ind 146

Rod Harrison (UKIP)
Adrian Jones (Lab)
Steve Knightley (LD)
Tony Rush (Ind)
Stephen Rushworth (C)


BARDWELL, St Edmundsbury district council, Suffolk; caused by the death of Conservative councillor John Hale at the age of 68.   A retired financial services advisor specialising in pensions, Hale was first elected to the district council in 2003.

This is a big rural ward in the Blackbourn valley just south of Thetford, covering the parishes of Barnham on the Thetford-Bury St Edmunds road; Euston, Fakenham Magna and Honington on the Thetford-Stowmarket road; and Bardwell and Coney Weston to the east.

Bardwell ward elects one member of St Edmundsbury district council, and since 2003 that member has been the Conservatives' John Hale.  His three election results have all been very similar to each other, polling around 75% of the vote against only UKIP opposition.

The Tories have selected Paula Wade to defend the seat; she is from Bardwell.  Also from Bardwell is the UKIP candidate James Lumley, who is hoping it will be third time lucky after contesting the ward in 2003 and 2011.  This time there is a three-cornered contest with Labour having nominated Thomas Stebbing, an architect from Bury St Edmunds.

Parliamentary constituency: West Suffolk
Suffolk county council division: Blackbourn
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bury St Edmunds (Bardwell and Coney Weston parishes); Thetford and Mildenhall (rest of ward)

James Lumley (UKIP)
Thomas Stebbing (Lab)
Paula Wade (C)

May 2011 result C 737 UKIP 223
May 2007 result C 540 UKIP 179
May 2003 result C 485 UKIP 180

ELY EAST, East Cambridgeshire district council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Will Burton, the 2012/13 Mayor of Ely, who is relocating to Lincolnshire.

Self-explanatory ward name alert: this is the eastern quarter of the cathedral city of Ely, in the Fens.  This ward covers the city centre, the cathedral, the marina on the River Great Ouse and the city's railway station, a major junction where lines from Cambridge, Ipswich, Peterborough, Norwich and King's Lynn all meet.  Also included in the ward are the fen villages of Queen Adelaide (with its three adjacent level crossings) and Prickwillow, which lie within the city boundary.

Ely East split its two district council seats between the Conservatives and Lib Dems in 2003.  The Tories gained the Lib Dem seat in 2007 and held the two seats in 2011, but this remains a marginal ward at district council level.

The new Conservative candidate is Lis Every, a business teacher at Ely College.  The Lib Dems and Labour have both selected the less popular of their two candidates in the 2011 election, Dian Warman and Jane Frances respectively.  Independent candidate John Borland, who fought this ward all the way back in 2003, also stands, as does UKIP's Jeremy Tyrrell.

May 2011 result C 613/598 LD 541/522 Lab 306/258
May 2007 result C 582/527 LD 468/453 Ind 218/153
May 2003 result C 468/350 LD 452/414 Ind 166 Grn 116

John Borland (Ind)
Lis Every (C)
Jane Frances (Lab)
Jeremy Tyrrell (UKIP)
Dian Warman (LD)

FENSIDE, Boston borough council, Lincolnshire; caused by the disqualification of English Democrats Party councillor Elliott Fountain who did not attend any meetings of the council in six months.

This is effectively the north-western corner of the town of Boston, a triangular area of housing on the south bank of the River Witham.

Local politics in Boston has gone a bit weird, with lots of support for minor parties.  The fun began in 2007 when a group completely new to local politics surprisingly gained control of the council - the Boston Bypass Independents, who as the name suggests are calling for a bypass to built to solve the severe traffic problems experienced by Boston (which are exacerbated by the fact that all the bridges over the Witham are in the town centre).  The Boston Bypass Independents turned out to be as inept in running the council as might have been expected from a group of inexperienced first-time councillors, and were resoundingly defeated in the 2011 council elections at which the Conservatives took overall control.  In this May's elections to Lincolnshire county council UKIP had one of their best results in Boston, winning four of the district's six county council seats including the Boston North West division which includes Fenside ward.

Fenside ward has not been immune to the overall strangeness; safely Labour in 2003, it was gained by the Bypass Independents in 2007.  The Bypass Independents then went on to lose one of the ward's two seats to the BNP in a November 2008 by-election, before both seats in the ward were gained by the English Democrats, a minor federalist party.  Apart from the 2009 Doncaster mayoral election, this is the English Democrats' only success at principal authority level.  Fountain's disqualification has resulted in the number of English Democrat district councillors reducing from two to one.

There is no defending English Democrat candidate so the seat is up for grabs.  Taking the candidates in alphabetical order: Ben Cook, the Labour candidate, is 27, works at the local ASDA and is a GMB union officer; the Conservative candidate is independent financial advisor Dan Elkington; the UKIP candidate is Tiggs Keywood-Wainwright, who convincingly won the local county council division in May; and the Lib Dems have nominated Revd Alan Taylor.

Parliamentary constituency: Boston and Skegness
Lincolnshire county council division: Boston North West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Boston

May 2011 result EDP 231/195 Boston Bypass Ind 182/176 Lab 162/159 LD 68/51
Nov 2008 by-election BNP 279 Boston Bypass Ind 141 C 119 Lab 69 UKIP 24 LD 23
May 2007 result Boston Bypass Ind 317/315 Lab 174/116 C 134 UKIP 107
May 2003 result Lab 292/250 C 160

Ben Cook (Lab)
Dan Elkington (C)
Tiggs Keywood-Wainwright (UKIP)
Alan Taylor (LD)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

HAMBLEDEN VALLEY, Wycombe district council, Buckinghamshire; caused by the death of the Chairman of the Council, Conservative councillor Roger Emmett, at the age of 67.  Emmett had been a Wycombe district councillor since 2001.

Here we have some very rich and beautiful Chiltern countryside, with a particular specialisation in country houses.  Hambleden Valley is a large ward which covers most of the area south-west of High Wycombe down to the north bank of the Thames.  It consists of Hambleden, Fawley, Turville and Ibstone parishes together with most of Medmenham parish.

Medmenham is notorious for its association with Francis Dashwood's so-called "Hellfire Club" in the eighteenth century, many of whose activities took place in the ruins of Medmenham Abbey, but should probably be better known for RAF Medmenham, home of the Air Force's photographic reconaissance unit during the Second World War.  Inevitably, the RAF building - Danesfield House - is now a country house hotel.  Another country house in the ward is Fawley Court, a former school for Polish boys overlooking the Henley Regatta course, which has been a favourite subject of Private Eye magazine over the last few years thanks to its recent sale and resulting legal disputes.

At the north end of the ward, Turville is a favourite location for film and TV productions; among many other things, it has been invaded by German paratroopers (in the Ealing comedy Went the Day Well?) and endured Dawn French as its vicar (in The Vicar of Dibley) while Cobstone Windmill in Ibstone, overlooking Turville, was restored for the filming of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.  Finally, Hambleden itself has associations with the aristocracy; Lord Cardigan, of Charge of the Light Brigade fame, was born here, and the Viscounts Hambleden (the original owning family of the WH Smith chain) are the lords of the manor.

In his twelve years on Wycombe district council Roger Emmett only faced two contested elections: his first, a November 2001 by-election in which he polled a whisker under 50% against independent and Labour opposition, and his last re-election in 2011, in which he beat a single Lib Dem candidate by 80% to 20%.  (Ask yourself: what did you expect a ward as full of old money as this to vote like?)  The county council results don't hold much hope of an exciting election either, the Tories winning the local county division (Chiltern Villages) in May with a margin of 34 points over UKIP.

The new Conservative candidate is Roger Metcalfe, a former Royal Artillery officer from Fawley who runs a business consultancy firm.  Labour's nominee is Julian Grigg, from High Wycombe, the second amputee (after Adam Hills) to feature in this week's column, while UKIP are standing Brian Mapletoft, from Penn on the other side of High Wycombe.

Parliamentary constituency: Wycombe
Buckinghamshire county council division: Chiltern Villages
ONS Travel to Work Area: Wycombe and Slough

Julian Grigg (Lab)
Brian Mapletoft (UKIP)
Roger Metcalfe (C)

May 2011 result C 820 LD 204
May 2007 result C unopposed
May 2003 result C unopposed


LOUGHBOROUGH ASHBY, Charnwood borough council, Leicestershire; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Chris Carter.

This tract of Loughborough can be found either side of the main road going out of town west towards the M1 motorway, and includes a large part of the Loughborough University campus.

Luffbra has some strange local election results and Labour often overperform here.  This ward of the town was won by Labour unopposed in 2003, but in 2007 the party lost one of their two seats to a single Conservative candidate.  Labour restored their monopoly in the 2011 election, polling 62% in a straight fight with the Conservatives.  This bodes well for a Labour hold in the by-election, but Loughborough is a student town and this ward has part of the campus in it; although students are notorious for not voting in local elections anyway, Loughborough's new academic year hasn't started yet, and a by-election in the town's Southfields ward last September which also fell during the summer recess resulted in a surprise Conservative gain.  On the other hand, last May's county council polls saw the Tories finish third in Loughborough North West behind Labour and an Independent.

So there is the potential for something strange to happen.  The defending Labour candidate will obviously not be hoping for a repeat performance, as it's the same candidate who lost last year's Southfields by-election: Mary Draycott, a former Lord Mayor of Leicester with many years' service on Leicester City Council, now living in Shepshed.  Syston-based teacher Kirti Asmal is the Conservative candidate, and UKIP have selected Andy McWilliam, from Quorn.

Parliamentary constituency: Loughborough
Leicestershire county council division: Loughborough North West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Leicester

May 2011 result Lab 834/817 C 506/404
May 2007 result C 546 Lab 517/472 BNP 220
May 2003 result 2 Lab unopposed

Kirti Asmal (C)
Mary Draycott (Lab)
Andy McWilliam (UKIP)


MIDDLETON CHENEY, Northamptonshire county council; and RAVENSTHORPE, Daventry district council, Northamptonshire; both caused by the death of Conservative councillor Ken Melling.  The Chairman of Daventry council in 2003/4, Melling had served as a district councillor since 1998 (for Brampton ward, moving to Ravensthorpe in 2012 when the council was re-warded) and as a county councillor since 2005, and also sat on Harlestone parish council.

These are very different areas.  To take the district ward first, Ravensthorpe ward covers a series of villages off the Northampton-Rugby road: Ravensthorpe itself, Hollowell, Holdenby, East Haddon, Brington and Althorp, home of the Earls Spencer and final resting place of Diana, Princess of Wales.  Middleton Cheney, on the other hand, is the far south-west corner of Northamptonshire, occupying the space between Banbury and Brackley.

Ravensthorpe ward looks safe enough for the Tories, who polled 62% last year (the first election on its current boundaries) with the English Democrats beating the Lib Dems for second place.  The Tories have selected company director Bryn Aldridge who, like all the other candidates, gives an address in the Long Buckby area.  The Lib Dem candidate Neil Farmer is a company director and local Lib Dem agent, UKIP's Ruaraidh "Eric" MacAnndrais is a Daventry town councillor who runs a taxi firm, while qualified special needs teacher Sue Myers stands for Labour.

On paper, Middleton Cheney should be more interesting with UKIP coming a strong second in the division in May.  The defending Conservative candidate is Ron Sawbridge, who is retired after careers as an RAF navigator and as a director of a large logistics company; he sat on Northamptonshire county council from 2001 until May when he lost Brackley to UKIP.  Living in Aynho, Northamptonshire's most south-westerly village, this is his home division.  UKIP's candidate Barry Mahoney fought the 2010 general election for this constituency (South Northamptonshire) and will be on UKIP's East Midlands list for next year's European Parliament elections; in May he fought his home division of Towcester and Roade.  Labour's candidate is Daventry district councillor Christopher Lee, a freelance director and drama tutor, and the Lib Dems have nominated former Northampton borough councillor Scott Collins, who lives in Helmdon and runs a printing/social media company.

Middleton Cheney
Parliamentary constituency: South Northamptonshire
ONS Travel to Work Area: Banbury

Scott Collins (LD)
Christopher Lee (Lab)
Barry Mahoney (UKIP)
Ron Sawbridge (C)

May 2013 result C 1165 UKIP 963 Lab 357 LD 239

Ravensthorpe
Parliamentary constituency: Daventry
Northamptonshire county council division: Long Buckby
ONS Travel to Work Area: Northampton and Wellingborough

Bryn Aldridge (C)
Neil Farmer (LD)
Eric MacAnndrais (UKIP)
Sue Myers (Lab)

May 2012 result C 420 EDP 136 LD 124


TORRINGTON, Torridge district council; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Geoff Lee who is moving to Norfolk.

This ward has the same boundaries as the town of Great Torrington, the main town in the Torridge Valley but still a small market town.  Much of its economy is based on the town centre shops, many of which are still independently owned, tourism (the town was one of the main settings for Henry Williamson's book Tarka the Otter) and glass-making; Dartington Crystal's factory in Torrington is the last remaining crystal factory in the UK and the town's largest employer.

Torrington's district council results are rather idiosyncratic with much support for independents, notably Cllr Margaret Brown who has a large personal vote.  The ward elected two Independent councillors and  a Lib Dem in the 2003 election; the Conservatives gained one of the Independent seats in 2007 to split the ward's representation three ways, and the three ward councillors were re-elected in 2011.  The Conservative ward councillor Andy Boyd is also the county councillor for the wider Torrington Rural division, winning a second term in May with UKIP as runners-up.

So, with previous election results serving more to confuse than inform, who are the candidates?  There is no official Lib Dem candidate, so the seat is up for grabs, but, as in the nearby Shebbear and Langtree by-election two weeks back there is an unofficial Lib Dem candidate, independent Adrian Freeland who was the Lib Dem candidate in Torrington Rural in May.  The Conservatives have selected Bideford-based Phil Pester, who was a district councillor in Bideford South ward until losing his seat to Labour in 2011.  UKIP have gone for county councillor Robin Julian, who is based in Hartland, about twenty miles away from the ward; he gained the Bideford South and Hartland division from the Conservatives in May.  Independent David Cox rose from bottom of the poll in the 2007 district election here to runner-up in 2011, and will hope to finish first this time.  Completing the ballot paper is Cathrine Simmons, the regular Green Party candidate for the
town.

Parliamentary constituency: Torridge and West Devon
Devon county council division: Torrington Rural
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bideford

David Cox (Ind)
Adrian Freeland (Ind)
Robin Julian (UKIP)
Phil Pester (C)
Cathrine Simmons (Grn)

May 2011 result C 809 Ind 792/480 LD 641/209 Lab 312 UKIP 208
May 2007 result Ind 693/490/476/179 C 620 LD 495 Grn 352
May 2003 result Ind 645/424/254 LD 376/364/243 Grn 212

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

YEWDALE, Carlisle city council, Cumbria; caused by the death of the Leader of the Council, Labour councillor Prof Joe Hendry, at the age of 67.  A visiting professor at Strathclyde Business School, he had served as council leader since 2012.

Covering an area of outer south-western Carlisle either side of the Orton Road, this is one of the more prosperous of Carlisle's wards.  It turned into a key marginal during the last Labour government as Labour and the Conservatives vied for control of Carlisle, but during the Blair years Labour always had the edge here and the Tories had to wait until the 2008 election to finally break through, repeating the gain at the 2009 county council election (until this May the ward had the same boundaries as the Yewdale county division, and even now there is very little difference in the boundaries).  Majorities in this period were regularly tiny: 21 votes in 2002, 34 votes in 2004, 47 votes in 2006, 10 votes in 2007, 42 votes for the Conservatives in 2008, 89 votes for the Tories in 2009.  The Tory runner-up in '06 and '07 was former Vote UK forum poster Gareth Ellis.  Labour's fortunes in the ward have recovered since the formation of the coalition, and
they easily regained the Tory seats in 2012 and 2013.  Joe Hendry had been a councillor throughout this period, most recently re-elected in 2011.

Defending for Labour is Tom Dodd, the secretary of Carlisle constituency Labour Party.  Christine Finlayson is the Conservative candidate.  Also standing are Terence Jones for the Liberal Democrats, Charmian McCutcheon for the Greens and UKIP's Mike Owen.

Parliamentary constituency: Carlisle
Cumbria county council division: Yewdale
ONS Travel to Work Area: Carlisle

Tom Dodd (Lab)
Christine Finlayson (C)
Terence Jones (LD)
Charmian McCutcheon (Grn)
Mike Owen (UKIP)

May 2012 result Lab 1222 C 730 LD 57 Grn 55
May 2011 result Lab 1254 C 845
May 2010 result Lab 1653 C 1353 TUSC 176 Grn 173
June 2009 county council election C 802 Lab 713 LD 249 BNP 185 Grn 109
May 2008 result C 945 Lab 903 BNP 326
May 2007 result Lab 988 C 978
May 2006 result Lab 797 C 750 LD 327
May 2005 county council election Lab 1890 C 1202
June 2004 result Lab 1016 C 982
May 2003 result Lab 831 C 624 LD 167
May 2002 result Lab 729 C 708 LD 157

[ObserverIE]

Boston, Fenside

UKIP 39.4 (+39.4)
Lib Dem 21.2 (+11.5)
Con 21.2 (+21.2)
Lab 18.2 (-8.0)

Charnwood, Loughborough Ashby

Lab 71.8 (+7.3)
UKIP 22.6 (+22.6)
Con 5.6 (-29.9)

Wycombe, Hambleden Valley

Con 70.3 (-9.8)
UKIP 18.0 (+18.0)
Lab 11.7 (+11.7)

East Cambridgeshire, Ely East

Con 37.5 (-5.2)
Lib Dem 28.9 (-8.6)
UKIP 13.0 (+13.0)
Lab 12.4 (-7.5)
Ind 8.3

Carlisle, Yewdale

Lab 48.7 (-10.5)
Con 30.8 (-4.6)
UKIP 17.5 (+17.5)
Lib Dem 2.1 (-0.7)
Green 1.0 (-1.7)

St Edmundsbury, Bardwell

Con 66.1 (-10.7)
UKIP 23.7 (+0.5)
Lab 10.3 (+10.3)

Cornwall, Wadebridge East

Lib Dem 31.8 (+6.9)
Ind 31.1
Con 16.9 (+5.6)
UKIP 15.7 (+0.1)
Lab 4.5 (-7.6)

Torridge, Torrington

Green 35.3 (+35.3)
UKIP 21.9 (+14.4)
Ind Cox 19.3
Ind Freeland 12.8
Con 10.6 (-18.4)

Daventry, Ravensthorpe

Con 46.5 (-15.3)
UKIP 34.6 (+34.6)
Lab 15.2 (+15.2)
Lib Dem 3.8 (-14.4)

Northamptonshire, Middleton Cheney

Con 52.8 (+10.0)
UKIP 29.5 (-5.9)
Lab 10.8 (-2.3)
Lib Dem 6.9 (-1.9)

UKIP gain Fenside from English Democrat
Lib Dem gain Wadebridge East from Ind
Green gain Torrington from Lib Dem

[MaxQue]

Wierd. The Greens came up from nowhere in Great Torrington.

[minionofmidas]

Why was Fenside once a safe Labour ward - or else why have they run into the ground so? (oh, and lol at Loughborough).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, it's Boston.

[Leftbehind]

Yeah pretty terrible Boston result, and similar story in Northampton. Charnwood was a good result though, and Torridge is a pleasant surprise.

[joevsimp]

Wierd. The Greens came up from nowhere in Great Torrington.

impressive, she came a very distant fourth in the county elections in may (ahead of Labour though)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word here.

North Hertfordshire, Hitchin Oughton

Lab 48.0 (-12.8)
Con 23.9 (-0.7)
UKIP 19.7 (+19.7)
Green 4.3 (-5.5)
Lib Dem 4.1 (-0.7)

Charnwood, Wreake Villages

Con 82.0 (+3.9)
Lab 18.0 (-3.9)

Central Bedfordshire, Dunstable Northfields

Ind 33.4
Con 23.5 (-13.1)
Lab 22.9 (-6.5)
UKIP 17.5 (+17.5)
Lib Dem 2.7 (-4.2)

Hertfordshire, Hitchin North

Lab 47.8 (+1.8)
Con 25.7 (-7.0)
Lib Dem 9.4 (+2.8)
UKIP 9.0 (+9.0)
Green 8.1 (-6.6)

East Lindsey, Frithville

Con 57.6 (+23.7)
UKIP 42.4 (+42.4)

Ind gain Dunstable Northfields from Con
Con gain Frithville from Ind

[minionofmidas]

Dunstable to sue Andrew for libel for telling the truth ("suburb of Luton") in 3, 2, 1... Also, everyone who didn't stop that name "Central Bedfordshire" for the Southern 60% of the county from being adopted needs to be deported to Tiree for the remainder of their natural life.

[ObserverIE]

Woking, Maybury and Sheerwater

Con 44.1 (+22.6)
Lab 34.8 (+1.2)
UKIP 10.6 (-0.2)
Lib Dem 10.5 (-23.6)

Con gain Maybury and Sheerwater from Lib Dem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-23503210

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

For what it's worth, this would have been the Holy Word for Tuesday:

MAYBURY AND SHEERWATER, Woking borough council, Surrey; caused by the election of Liberal Democrat councillor Mohammed Bashir being declared void on petition.  The election court found that Bashir and his agents had engaged in corrupt and illegal practices at the May 2012 election: they were found to have won the election by entering false names into the electoral register and applying for and using postal votes from those non-existent electors.  Bashir is now disqualified from holding any elective office for five years and has also been struck off the electoral register.

This is a long thin ward in north-eastern Woking, sandwiched between the South Western railway line to the south and the Basingstoke Canal to the north, and also including an area of housing on the south side of the line north of College Road and East Hill.

It may surprise people who know Woking mainly for the HG Wells novel War of the Worlds that Woking has a long-standing Muslim connection: the Shah Jahan Mosque was the first mosque ever built in the UK, described in the election court's judgment [M/336/12, Ali v Bashir and another, https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/170955/response/417533/attach/4/Full%20Executive%20of%20the%20Judgment%2029%20July%202013.pdf] as "a charming small building in the Mughal style, a mini-Taj Mahal plonked down in the Surrey woodlands".  The result of this has been to produce a ward which shares many of the common features of electoral wards with a large Asian Muslim population: party labels within the Asian community start to become secondary to which candidate comes from whose extended family, whose extended family comes from which village in Pakistan or Kashmir, and so on.  Such family ties are not the only things which have been imported from the subcontinent: a senior Labour figure in Woking and former secretary of the Mosque, Sabir Hussain, was quoted in the judgment as saying that

You must be logged in to read this quote.

2012 was by no means the first time electoral fraud had been alleged in Maybury and Sheerwater ward.  The CPS had decided not to prosecute allegations on several previous occasions, and Woking council had invited the candidates to sign up to an "acceptable behaviour" protocol in advance of the 2012 election.  Clearly that didn't work.

Previous election results for the ward do bear quite a few of the above hallmarks.  The list below shows some wild gyrations, and it's important to bear in mind not just whch party is represented but which community their candidate is from.  The ward was safe Labour in 2002 and 2003 (it is the strongest Labour ward in Woking) with none of the candidates being from the Asian community.  In 2004 both the Conservatives and Labour nominated Muslim candidates; with a huge rise in turnout compared to 2003, the Conservatives won the seat by 147 votes.  The Tory majority increased to 461 votes in 2006 and the ward looked safe for them.  The final Labour seat in the ward went in 2007, their outgoing councillor Elizabeth Evans finishing a poor third behind Mohammed Bashir for the Liberal Democrats, who was 137 votes behind the winning Conservative candidate Muzaffar Ali.  Bashir came back for the 2008 election and won on a big swing, gaining the seat from the Conservatives. 

The years 2010-2012 saw the three ward councillors successively re-elected with narrow majorities: Tory by 163 votes over the Lib Dems in 2010; Tory by 45 votes over Labour in 2011 with the Lib Dems close behind, all three major parties fielding Muslim candidates for the first time; Lib Dem by 12 votes over Labour in the now-voided 2012 election, the Conservatives falling back badly.  In May this ward formed part of the Woking North county council division, which was narrowly won by the Conservatives over Labour.

Trying to pick up the shattered pieces for the defending Liberal Democrats is Norman Johns, a councillor between 2006 and 2010 for Mount Hermon East ward on the other side of the railway line.  Mohammad Ali, the successful petitioner, has decided not to stand for election again and Stephen Tudhope has taken over as the Labour candidate; he is a management consultant who fought the ward in 2010.  Fighting for the Conservatives is Mohammed Rashid, a former master baker who now runs a taxi firm.  Completing the ballot paper is UKIP candidate Neil Willetts.

Parliamentary constituency: Woking
Surrey county council division: Woking North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Guildford and Aldershot

Norman Johns (LD)
Rashid Mohammed (C)
Stephen Tudhope (Lab)
Neil Willetts (UKIP)

May 2012 void election LD 1088 Lab 1072 C 685 UKIP 345
May 2011 result C 1061 Lab 1016 LD 899 UKIP 434
May 2010 result C 2034 LD 1871 Lab 525 UKIP 305
May 2008 result LD 1551 C 1104 Lab 363 UKIP 139
May 2007 result C 1177 LD 1040 Lab 665 UKIP 92 UK Community Issues Party 63
May 2006 result C 1357 Lab 896 LD 389 UK Community Issues Party 150
June 2004 result C 1142 Lab 995 LD 661 Health and Community Issues Party 98
May 2003 result Lab 593 LD 397 C 289 Ind 174
May 2002 result Lab 950 C 293 LD 227 Ind 137

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

And tonight's previews:

COSELEY EAST, Dudley metropolitan borough council; caused by the death of Labour councillor George Davies at the age of 75.  One of the last surviving members of the first Dudley MBC elected in 1973, Davies had represented this ward from 1973 to 1976 and again since 1985, chaired the housing committee for ten years and was Mayor of Dudley in 2000/1.

Welcome to the Black Country and to the old village of Coseley, which didn't really get going as a town until the mid-1920s, when it became the site of a factory for Bean cars and car parts, and when the Birmingham New Road - a dual carriageway connecting Birmingham with Wolverhampton - was built through the area.  With that road link and a frequent rail service to the two cities from Coseley railway station, it's arguable that the area is better linked with Wolverhampton than with Dudley.

This ward has consistently returned Labour councillors over the last nine years, although during the tail-end of the last Labour government it came under threat at various points from both the Conservatives and the BNP, who finished just twenty votes short of Labour at the 2006 election.  The area has swung strongly to the left since the formation of the Coalition and this is now a very safe Labour ward.

Defending for Labour is Clem Baugh.  For the Conservatives, Julian Ryder is seeking to get back on the council after losing his seat in the neighbouring Upper Gornal and Woodsetton ward last year; he is one of three candidates who fought that ward last year to stand in this by-election, along with UKIP's Star Etheridge and the National Front's Kevin Inman.  Last year's Green candidate for this ward Becky Blatchford tries again, as does last year's NF candidate Ken Griffiths, who this time has the BNP nomination; he was the BNP candidate who came within twenty votes of winning in 2006.

Parliamentary constituency: Wolverhampton South East
ONS Travel to Work Area: Wolverhampton

Clem Baugh (Lab)
Becky Blatchford (Grn)
Star Etheridge (UKIP)
Ken Griffiths (BNP)
Kevin Inman (NF)
Julian Ryder (C)

May 2012 result Lab 1366 C 468 UKIP 430 NF 177 Grn 71
May 2011 result Lab 1705 C 954 UKIP 592
May 2010 result Lab 2055 C 1590 BNP 784 LD 640 UKIP 581
May 2008 result Lab 1245 C 1026 BNP 935 LD 252
May 2007 result Lab 1531 BNP 1090 C 882 UKIP 291
May 2006 result Lab 1258 BNP 1238 C 845 LD 292
June 2004 result Lab 1477/1298/1237 BNP 1183 C 1046/790/735 LD 444


FOUR MARKS AND MEDSTEAD, East Hampshire district council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Pat Seward.

High up in the Hampshire Downs, Four Marks lies about four miles south-east of Alton on the main road to Winchester.  It is connected to Alton by a station on the "Watercress Line" preserved railway.  The village is of fairly recent vintage, originally being settled in the mid-nineteenth century by Crimean War veterans.  To the north is the older-established village of Medstead.

When first created on its current boundaries in 2003 this ward was a close fight between the Conservatives and Lib Dems, with the two seats having Tory majorities of 61 and 10, but the Lib Dems have fallen back since then so far they aren't even contesting this by-election.  The county council division covering the area (Alton Rural) is also safely Conservative.

Ingrid Thomas leads the Conservative defence.  Janet Treacher, who fought Alton Eastbrooke ward at the last district council election in 2011 and the local county council division in May, is the Labour candidate, Ruth Duffin stands for UKIP and Majorie Pooley for the Green Party.

Parliamentary constituency: East Hampshire
Hampshire county council division: Alton Rural
ONS Travel to Work Area: Portsmouth

Ruth Duffin (UKIP)
Marjorie Pooley (Grn)
Ingrid Thomas (C)
Janice Treacher (Lab)

May 2011 result C 1729/1703 LD 682 Lab 228/184
May 2007 result C 1298/1287 LD 687/676
May 2003 result C 1013/962 LD 952/749 Lab 129


NORTH Ward, Oxford city council; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Alan Armitage.  Armitage had previously resigned as Lord Mayor of Oxford in March this year over inappropriate comments allegedly made to a schoolgirl, for which he was censured by the council's standards committee.

This is central North Oxford, starting at St Giles and moving north for about half a mile along the Banbury and Woodstock Roads.  The ward contains six of Oxford University's colleges: the former women's colleges of Lady Margaret Hall, St Anne's and Somerville; the postgrad Green Templeton and St Antony's; and the theological college of Wycliffe Hall, but also has a residential character: St John's College developed much of the land in the nineteenth century, allegedly for married dons, and many of the houses are noted examples of Victorian Gothic architecture, with some Regency buildings in Park Town.

The high turnover of Oxford's student population means that its wards can have very volatile results.  North ward in the Blair years was a Liberal Democrat ward with the Greens close behind; at the 2008 and 2010 elections the Lib Dems made the ward safe with the Tories as nearest challengers, but in 2012 Labour came from third place to win with the Greens second and the Lib Dems falling to third.  The ward is split between two county council divisions: the "gown" University Parks, which voted Green in May, and the "town" St Margaret's which was carried by the Lib Dems.  One point to bear in mind is that Oxford's new academic year hasn't started yet so turnout in the colleges will be minimal.

Defending for the Liberal Democrats is Tim Bearder, a former BBC journalist and son of the Lib Dems' South East MEP Catherine Bearder.  The Labour charge is led by Dr Louise Upton, an Oxford University research scientist who lectures at Christ Church.  The ward's regular Green Party candidate and former county councillor, psychotherapist Sushila Dhall, tries again, and the Conservative candidate is Oxford University Press accountant John Walsh.

Parliamentary constituency: Oxford West and Abingdon
Oxfordshire county council division: St Margaret's (Walton Manor area), University Parks (rest of ward)

Tim Bearder (LD)
Sushila Dhall (Grn)
Louise Upton (Lab)
John Walsh (C)

May 2012 result Lab 516 Grn 385 LD 353 C 291
May 2010 result LD 1303 C 715 Lab 489 Grn 413
May 2008 result LD 463 C 378 Grn 221 Lab 184
May 2006 result LD 663 Grn 299 C 235 Lab 157
June 2004 result LD 706 Grn 500 C 214 Lab 175 Local Government Reform 62
May 2002 result LD 602/586 Grn 474/422 Lab 209/126 Local Government Reform 138


SEASALTER, Canterbury city and district council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Mike Sharp, who had represented the ward since 1999.

Today the western end of the resort town of Whitstable, the name of Seasalter is unusual in that it refers directly to the area's ancient industry: salt production, which made Seasalter prosperous during the Iron Age and resulted in Viking raids.  Much of the land in the area which has not yet been developed is still marsh.

This normally safe Conservative ward is now holding its second by-election in just four months, the first being held on county election day in May after another of the ward's three councillors emigrated.  On that day the Conservatives were run close by UKIP in the wider Whitstable county division, and the same was true of Seasalter which had a Tory majority of just 83 votes; much closer than the ordinary May elections since the millennium which normally have Labour as the leading challengers.

The new Tory candidate is Annette Stein, a lesbian homeopath and alternative medicine expert - certainly not the sort of candidate you usually see standing for the Tories.  Mike Bull, the leading UKIP candidate in May's county election, stands for UKIP.  Rachel Goodwin, a supermarket union steward and football coach, is the Labour candidate, Keith Hooker tries for the Lib Dems and Sturry-based Russell Page is the Green nominee.

Mike Bull (UKIP)
Rachel Goodwin (Lab)
Keith Hooker (LD)
Russell Page (Grn)
Annette Stein (C)

Parliamentary constituency: Canterbury
Kent county council division: Whitstable
ONS Travel to Work Area: Canterbury

May 2013 by-election C 789 UKIP 706 Lab 427 LD 93 TUSC 41
May 2011 result C 1681/1610/1538 Lab 773/707/698 LD 353/292/275
May 2007 result C 1518/1489/1461 LD 493/377/339 Lab 455/402
May 2003 result C 1233/1209/1194 Lab 770/740/675 LD 308

[ObserverIE]

Oxford, North

Lab 35.5 (+2.1)
Lib Dem 31.9 (+9.1)
Green 22.8 (-2.1)
Con 9.7 (-9.1)

Dudley, Coseley East

Lab 55.7 (+1.1)
UKIP 25.3 (+8.5)
Con 10.1 (-8.6)
BNP 6.3 (+6.3)
Green 1.7 (-1.1)
NF 0.8 (-6.3)

Canterbury, Seasalter (changes in italics since May 2013 by-election)

UKIP 38.5 (+38.5) (+4.2)
Con 31.2 (-29.7) (-7.2)
Lab 18.3 (-9.2) (-2.5)
Lib Dem 8.8 (-2.8) (+4.3)
Green 3.2 (+3.2) (+3.2)

East Hampshire, Four Marks and Medstead

Con 58.1 (-7.8)
UKIP 27.0 (+27.0)
Lab 9.2 (+1.3)
Green 5.7 (+5.7)

Lab gain North from Lib Dem
UKIP gain Seasalter from Con

[Leftbehind]

Those changes are remarkably ideologically consistent.