UK local by-elections 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good result in Cowzloyyyyyy. Kind of hilarious to see Labour win in North Oxford.

[ObserverIE]

Those changes are remarkably ideologically consistent.

Coseley and Oxford are in lockstep.

The Tories have held the Hampshire seat with 749 votes on a turnout of 1270 but I don't have the other figures yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't think of many places that have less in common

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With that road link and a frequent rail service to the two cities from Coseley railway station, it's arguable that the area is better linked with Wolverhampton than with Dudley

It's certainly has more ties with Bilston (which, as you know, is in Wolves) than with Dudley.

[minionofmidas]

I had to look up the inappropriate comment. The schoolgirl in question was 13, which is... um.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Throw in a murder or two and it would work as the starting point for a Morse episode.

[Leftbehind]

Anyone else surprised about the amount of paedophilia cases you hear in local government?

[ObserverIE]

Mole Valley, Mickleham, Westhumble and Pixham

Lib Dem 55.7 (+4.3)
Con 31.1 (-10.5)
UKIP 13.3 (+6.4)

West Sussex, Storrington

Con 45.9 (-2.0)
UKIP 32.2 (-5.8)
Lib Dem 16.1 (+2.0)
Green 5.8 (+5.8)

Barnsley, Wombwell

Lab 66.8 (-6.5)
UKIP 24.6 (+24.6)
Con 4.4 (-0.7)
Eng Dem 4.2 (-3.8)

Tendring, St James

Con 49.8 (-4.9)
UKIP 21.9 (+21.9)
Lab 15.1 (-2.0)
Tendring First 9.2 (-8.0)
Lib Dem 3.9 (-0.6)

Blackpool, Highfield

Lab 36.4 (-1.6)
Con 27.2 (-13.1)
UKIP 22.8 (+22.8)
Ind Mottershead 6.3 (-10.6)
Lib Dem 4.1 (-0.7)
Green 2.6 (+2.6)
Ind Maher 0.6

(Lab hold in a divided ward)

Sevenoaks, Crockenhill and Well Hill (changes in italics since March 2012 by-election)

UKIP 35.7 (+28.0)
Lab 31.1 (-27.2)
Con 23.0 (-11.0)
Lib Dem 10.2 (+10.2)

(UKIP gain from Lab - Ind unopposed in 2011, his widow elected as Lab candidate in by-election)

Cherwell, Banbury Ruscote (changes in italics since November 2012 by-election)

Lab 58.9 (-2.6) (+2.2)
Con 25.1 (-7.0) (-7.3)
UKIP 16.0 (+16.0) (+5.1)

Mid Devon, Way

Con 48.0 (-25.9)
Lib Dem 33.0 (+33.0)
UKIP 15.2 (+15.2)
Ind 3.8

Forest of Dean, Coleford East

Lab 37.2 (+3.9)
UKIP 29.3 (+29.3)
Con 13.4 (-9.8)
Lib Dem 10.3 (-6.5)
Ind 9.8

Forest of Dean, Redmarley

Con 65.5 (-14.5)
UKIP 23.5 (+23.5)
Lab 11.0 (-9.0)

[doktorb]

"Mickleham, Westhumble and Pixham" is enough justification for why we don't go in for "District No. 4" or "5th Division" over here.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

This would have been the Holy Word, for what it's worth:

BANBURY RUSCOTE, Cherwell district council, Oxfordshire; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Pat Cartledge.

The main town of northern Oxfordshire, Banbury is an old town with a surprising amount of industry considering its size.  Its mediaeval economy was based on wool, the town being well-sited at the junction of two ancient roads.  The opening of the Oxford Canal in the late eighteenth century confirmed its prosperity, and Banbury's nineteenth and early-twentieth century economy was based on the railways and an enormous cattle market.  After the Second World War population growth and London/Birmingham overspill led to the development of the Hardwick and Ruscote estates on the west side of town, and two major factories were built; the Alcan aluminium factory closed down in the mid-Noughties, but Kraft Foods is still going strong and is the main Kraft manufacturing centre in Britain.

This profile creates a normally-Labour ward which turned into a key marginal during the later Blair and Brown years, although it took until 2007 and 2008 for the Conservatives to break through and they never held all of the ward's three seats.  The Tory vote has declined since they came into power nationally; they lost their last seat in May 2012 and the ward is now safe for Labour, a status confirmed by a previous by-election held in November 2012 on Police and Crime Commissioner election day.  Labour also hold the Banbury Ruscote county division (which includes part of the neighbouring Banbury Neithrop ward).

Defending for Labour is Mark Cherry, county councillor for the Banbury Calthorpe county division in the south of the town.  Conservative Pat Tompson wants her district council seat back after losing to Labour in 2012, but she was also the candidate in the by-election last November so the omens for doing that do not seem good.  Christiam Miller, for UKIP, completes the ballot paper.


COLEFORD EAST and REDMARLEY, Forest of Dean district council, Gloucestershire; caused by the deaths respectively of Labour councillor Frank Baynham and Conservative councillor Peter Ede.

One of the small industrial towns in which the Forest of Dean specialises, Coleford started off life as a centre for coal-mining (as the name might suggest) and ironworking; today Coleford's economy is based on tourism, administration (the Forest of Dean council offices are here) and a large factory which produces the UK's entire supply of Ribena and Lucozade.  One of the tourist centres is the Coleford Great Western Railway museum, located within the Coleford East ward which contains very little of Coleford itself but is instead based on the villages of Milkwall, Coalway and Broadwell to the east of Coleford, all of which lie within the Coleford parish boundary.

At the opposite end of the district on the Worcestershire border is Redmarley ward, named after the village of Redmarley d'Abitot at the southern end of the Malvern Hills  and also including the neighbouring parishes of Pauntley and Staunton.  The strange suffix "d'Abitot" honours Urse d'Abitot, the Domesday-era Sheriff of Worcestershire; much of the area was once within Worcestershire.  This is deeply Tory countryside: the 2011 election (in which the Tories beat Labour by 4 to 1) was the ward's first contested election this century, and the Tories easily held in the local county division (Newent) at a time when the Forest of Dean was one of UKIP's strongest areas.

Coleford East is a more confusing area politically; the 2003 election for the ward returning one Labour councillor, an Independent and a Conservative.  The Tories took the Labour and Independent seat in 2007, but Labour came back in 2011 to gain two of the three seats with a new Independent councillor coming in third.  In between was a very confusing November 2009 by-election which saw the Tories lose a seat to an Independent candidate in a close four-way result, with the Lib Dems coming through strongly to take a close second place, the Tories third and Labour fourth.  The wider Coleford county division was regained by Labour from the Conservatives in May.

The defending Labour candidate for Coleford East is Ruardean-based Tanya Palmer, who was apparently shortlisted for the Forest's Labour parliamentary selection; she describes herself on Twitter as a socialist, feminist trade unionist.  The new Independent candidate is Keith Aburrow, a former Conservative district councillor for Pillowell ward who tried to defend his seat in 2011 as an Independent and finished last.  This is Aburrow's home ward.  The official Conservative candidate is Harry Ives, from Lydney, who appears to have recently graduated in Chemistry from UCL.  The Lib Dems are standing former Coleford town councillor Heather Lusty, and UKIP's candidate is Alan Grant, from Lydney.

The Redmarley race should be more straightforward unless UKIP can get their act together more convincingly than they did in May.  In pole position is the Tory candidate, Redmarley parish councillor Clayton Williams, a former motorcycle and speedway racer who has turned his passion into a company which overhauls motorcycle engines for race performance.  Lining up on the grid with him are Labour candidate Andy Hewlett and UKIP's Alec Tritton, a marketing consultant.


CROCKENHILL AND WELL HILL, Sevenoaks district council, Kent; caused by the death of Labour councillor Jenny Dibsdall.

This ward covers one of the few areas of genuine countryside within the M25 London orbital motorway; in this case, west of junctions 3 and 4.  The ward's largest village, Crockenhill, is a dormitory village located just south of Swanley with some market gardening.  The Irish footballer Tony Cascarino started his career as a boy with Crockenhill football club, who sold him to his first League club Gillingham in 1981, allegedly in exchange for new tracksuits. 

The previous election results for Crockenhill and Well Hill don't give much of a pointer to this by-election.  The councillor for many years had been Colin Dibsdall, who won very large majorities as a Liberal Democrat candidate in 2003 and 2007; in 2011 he sought re-election as an Independent and was unopposed.  Colin Dibsdall died in early 2012 and the resulting by-election was won easily by his widow Jenny, who had the Labour nomination.  The ward is part of a safely Conservative county council division (Darent Valley).

Jenny's death means that this is the first ward election without a Dibsdall on the ballot for a very long time.  The defending Labour candidate is Rachel Waterton, a bookkeeper and Crockenhill parish councillor.  The Conservatives have selected Allrik Birch, a former treasurer of the youth wing of UKIP who has fallen out with the party.  UKIP's candidate is Sevenoaks resident Steve Lindsay, and the Lib Dems have re-selected their county council candidate from May Philip Hobson.


HIGHFIELD, Blackpool council, Lancashire; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Chris Maughan, the council's cabinet member for young people, who has a new job in the East Midlands.

Named after the Highfield Road, this is an entirely built-up area of terraces located opposite the Blackpool Airport terminal buildings.  The ward has a relatively old age profile (23% of the population are over the age of 65, compared with 16% for England as a whole) and that has produced a ward which is more Tory-inclined than Blackpool as a whole.  The Conservatives won both of the ward's seats relatively comfortably in 2003 and very comfortably in 2007, but the 2011 election produced a photo-finish in the ward and split representation between the Conservatives and Labour.  This makes this by-election a key marginal.

Defending for the Conservatives is Sue Ridyard, who lost her council seat in Layton at the 2011 election.  Labour's candidate is Peter Hunter, the president of Blackpool Trades Council.  There are two independent candidates: Rob Mottershead, who polled 17% in the ward last time around, tries again, while Chris Maher runs a hotel on the South Shore.  Bill Greene, a former Fylde district councillor, is the Liberal Democrat candidate, Stephen Flanigan has been selected by UKIP, and Green Party candidate Shereen Reedman uses the ballot paper to highlight her opposition to fracking.


MICKLEHAM, WESTHUMBLE AND PIXHAM, Mole Valley district council, Surrey; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Rebecca McCheyne who is relocating to Hampshire.

This ward essentially covers the space between Dorking and Leatherhead, in some beautiful countryside where the River Mole punches north through the North Downs.  Viewers of last year's London Olympics may remember the cycle race repeatedly climbing Box Hill, part of which is in this ward.  At the bottom of Box Hill are the Mole Valley villages of Mickleham, whose A24 bypass was one of the UK's first dual carriageway roads and a notorious accident blackspot [http://www.cbrd.co.uk/photo/mickleham-bends/].  Further up the valley is the village of Westhumble, the ward's largest centre of population with a rail link to London (from Box Hill and Westhumble station), while Pixham is effectively a suburb of Dorking around the town's main railway station.

The ward elects one member to Mole Valley district council, and it saw a gain at the 2011 election, Rebecca McCheyne gaining the ward from the Conservatives after their previous councillor retired.  The Lib Dems also hold the local county division (Dorking Hills), increasing their majority over the Conservatives in May.

Defending for the Liberal Democrats is Roger Hurst, from Pixham, a part-time environmental technician and former head of retail operations for a major high-street chain.  Westhumble-based Duncan Irvine, who works part-time in the City and runs a small gardening enterprise, will hope to regain the seat for the Conservatives.  Also standing is UKIP candidate Adrian Daniels, from Leatherhead.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

STORRINGTON, West Sussex county council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Frank Wilkinson at the age of 76.

If Mickleham is in the shadow of the North Downs, Storrington is in the shadow of the South Downs, lying on the northern slopes of the 700' Kithurst Hill.  The county division named after Storrington also includes the parishes of Parham and Amberley (home to the division's railway station) to the west, and Washington, Wiston and Ashington to the east.  Much of the division is within the South Downs National Park.

Safe Conservative in 2009, Wilkinson was run close by UKIP in May.  The ward's two constituent Horsham district wards (Chantry ward and part of Chanctonbury ward) haven't been to the polls since 2011, when they were both very safely Conservative.

The defending Conservative candidate for this by-election is Philip Circus, chairman of Horsham district council and one of the district councillors for Chanctonbury ward.  He gives an address in West Chiltington, just outside the division.  UKIP have selected John Wallace, a parish councillor in nearby Pulborough.  The Liberal Democrat standard-bearer is Nick Hopkinson from Steyning, a town a few miles to the east, while the Greens have selected James Doyle, a major contributor to the Vote UK forum and former Liberal Democrat county councillor in Worthing.


ST JAMES, Tendring district council, Essex; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Gill Downing at the age of 87.

This is the west end of the Clacton seafront, including the site of the old Butlins camp which has now been redeveloped into housing.

The ward has been safe Conservative since 2007 after the Tories saw off the Lib Dems who had split the ward's two seats in 2003.  At the 2011 election the runner-up spot was disputed by the localist Tendring First and Labour.  The ward is part of the Clacton West county division in which the Tories were run relatively close by UKIP in May.

Defending for the Tories is Andy Wood, county councillor for Clacton North division.  Mark Stephenson, who runs a business promotion business, is the Tendring First candidate, David Bolton stands for Labour, Amanda Peters for the Lib Dems and Susan Shearing, a former Lib Dem district councillor for Peter Bruff ward, is the UKIP candidate.


WAY, Mid Devon district council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Sarah Fox.

Up in the hills of central Devon a few miles south-west of Tiverton, this ward consists of a series of small villages around Way Village.  Despite the ward name, the main centre of population is Cheriton Fitzpaine (690 electors), with most of the other villages collected into the parishes of Poughill and Cruwys Morchard.  It says something about the isolation of this area that one of the three polling stations for this by-election is a pub: the Cruwys Arms in Pennymoor, catering for Cruwys Morchard parish's 400 electors.

Sarah Fox had been district councillor for the ward since 2007 after defeating the previous independent councillor, who had faced only Green opposition in 2003.  In 2011 Sarah Norman (as she then was) defeated the Labour candidate by 74-26.  The local county division (Willand and Uffculme) is safely Conservative with UKIP second.

Four candidates are standing in this district by-election.  Cathryn Heal, from Lapford, is the defending Conservative candidate and will face opposition from the Lib Dems' Judi Binks (from Kennerleigh), UKIP's Bob Edwards (from Crediton) and independent candidate John Jordan (from Tiverton).


WOMBWELL, Barnsley metropolitan borough council, South Yorkshire; caused by the death of Labour councillor Denise Wilde at the age of 69.

Our final by-election this week is in the South Yorkshire coalfield in the now-ex-colliery town of Wombwell.  As with much of Barnsley, this is a Labour stronghold and the main excitement in elections relates to who comes as runner-up, with the Barnsley Independent Group, the Tories and the BNP all having come second to Labour at some point over the last seven years.

Defending for Labour is Robert Frost, an ex-miner who became a maths teacher after the mines closed.  For the first time since 2004 there is no Barnsley Independent Group councillor on the ballot paper.  Kevin Riddiough stands for the English Democrats, Clive Watkinson for the Conservatives and retired ex-miner Neil Robinson for UKIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quietly satisfying hold in Coleford.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

By-elections on 3rd October 2013:

ABBEYGATE, St Edmundsbury district council, Suffolk; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Charlotte Howard at the age of 68.  Howard, who worked at an opticians in Bury St Edmunds, had served on the district council for less than three months.

This is central Bury St Edmunds, covering the city centre and most of the public buildings: the town hall, the cathedral and the Shirehall which once housed West Suffolk county council; however, despite the name, the Abbey lies just outside the ward boundary.

This is the ward's second by-election in five months, the first having come on county council election day in May after the resignation of one of the ward's Conservative councillors.  That by-election elected Charlotte Howard, whose death just a few months later has caused this by-election.  While the ward remained safe Conservative in May (the Tories have held the ward's two district council seats since taking the second seat off an Independent in 2007) there was a significant swing to the Green Party who have established themselves as a force in Suffolk politics.  On the same day the local county council division (Tower) re-elected Green county councillor Mark Ereira-Guyer for a second term in office, with the Conservatives losing the second seat in the county division to an independent.

Joanna Rayner hopes to take over as the second Conservative councillor for the ward; she is a manager at a housing association.  The new Green candidate is county councillor Mark Ereira-Guyer, hoping to get back on the district council after losing his seat in St Olaves ward in 2011.  Quentin Cornish stands for Labour, Chris Lale for the Liberal Democrats and Clive Reason is the ward's first UKIP candidate.

Parliamentary constituency: Bury St Edmunds
Suffolk county council division: Tower
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bury St Edmunds

Quentin Cornish (Lab)
Mark Ereira-Guyer (Grn)
Chris Lale (LD)
Joanna Rayner (C)
Clive Reason (UKIP)

May 2013 by-election C 562 Grn 399 Lab 154 LD 149
May 2011 result C 1007/744 Grn 448 LD 317 Lab 282/259
May 2007 result C 819/582 Ind 519 LD 348 Grn 309
May 2003 result C 982 Ind 666/386


CHAPEL ST LEONARDS, East Lindsey district council, Lincolnshire; caused by the resignation of Independent councillor Philip Leivers who has been charged with historic sex offences against a child.

Five miles north of Skegness, Chapel St Leonards is a coastal retirement village whose economy is based on caravan park holidays and its long, wide, sandy beach.  The ward named after the village also includes the parishes of Anderby to the north and inland Hogsthorpe.

East Lindsey is a rather isolated area and one of the last remaining strongholds of the rural Independent councillor.  At the 2003 election both of Chapel St Leonards' councillors were independents, Leivers topping the poll and only Labour providing party opposition.  The Conservatives contested the ward in 2007 and took one of the two seats from a retiring Independent councillor, but narrowly lost their seat to another independent in 2011, Leivers topping the poll again with a large personal vote.  The local county division (Ingoldmells Rural) is safely Conservative.

Two independent candidates are vying to replace Cllr Leivers.  Richard Enderby is the chairman of Hogsthorpe parish council, while Mel Turton-Leivers (no relation to the resigned councillor) is the finance officer of Chapel St Leonards parish council and formerly ran a pub in the village.  The Tory candidate Kevin Sharpe, a Chapel St Leonards parish councillor, lost his district council seat in 2011 and wants it back.  The Labour candidate is Fiona Brown, from Chapel St Leonards, while UKIP candidate Giles Crust, from Skendleby near Spilsby, fought Ingoldmells Rural in the county council elections in May as an independent, polling 18% and coming last of the three candidates.

Parliamentary constituency: Louth and Horncastle
Lincolnshire county council division: Ingoldmells Rural
ONS Travel to Work Area: Skegness

Fiona Brown (Lab)
Giles Crust (UKIP)
Richard Enderby (Ind)
Kevin Sharpe (C)
Mel Turton-Leivers (Ind)

May 2011 result Ind 801/557 C 501/457 EDP 266
May 2007 result East Lindsey Ind Group 541/289 C 494/423 Ind 456/252/222
May 2003 result Ind 993/776/283 Lab 302/225


OAKFIELD, Aylesbury Vale district council, Buckinghamshire; caused by the death of Liberal Democrat councillor Steve Patrick at the age of 59.  A district councillor since 1999, he was the serving Mayor of Aylesbury in his capacity as a town councillor.

This ward is eastern Aylesbury, bisected by the Grand Union Canal and running between the A41 road to London and the A418 road to Leighton-Linslade.  A Liberal Democrat stronghold at the 2003 election, it has since swung to the Conservatives; while the Lib Dems still held both seats after the 2011 election, the majorities were only 44 and 6 votes.  You might think that would make the Conservatives the clear challengers, but the May county elections have muddied the waters; most of the ward is in the Aylesbury East county division, which was won by UKIP in May with 35% with the Conservatives second on 30% and the Lib Dems (who had held the area in 2009) third with 20% and Steve Patrick as their candidate.  A smaller part of the ward is in Aylesbury North which the Lib Dems held.  All this tells us is pretty much anything could happen here. 

Defending for the Liberal Democrats is Allison Harrison, the remaining Aylesbury town councillor for this ward after Steve Patrick's death.  Edward Sims, the Tory candidate for Aylesbury North in May, fights the by-election in the Conservative interest.  Roy McNickle is the Labour candidate; he fought Aylesbury East in May.  Independent candidate Patrick Martin is having his third go at getting elected to the district council from this ward, after polling respectably in 2011 (when he was a close runner-up in the town council election) and 2007.  Finally, UKIP's new county councillor Phil Gomm hopes to make it two wins at the ballot box in five months by standing for the district council.

Parliamentary constituency: Aylesbury
Buckinghamshire county council division: Aylesbury East (part), Aylesbury North (part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Milton Keynes and Aylesbury

Phil Gomm (UKIP)
Allison Harrison (LD)
Patrick Martin (Ind)
Roy McNickle (Lab)
Edward Sims (C)

May 2011 result LD 475/437 C 431/419 Lab 336/246 Ind 288 UKIP 205/164
May 2007 result LD 626/581 C 418/412 Ind 301 UKIP 122
May 2003 result LD 711/675 C 229/222


TAUNTON HALCON, Taunton Deane district council, Somerset; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Steve Brooks, a former mayor of the district.

This generally residential ward covers the area running east from Taunton town centre to the M5 motorway at junction 25.  Halcon is a very deprived area with high unemployment and crime levels, although Avon and Somerset Police have managed to significantly cut crime on the estate in recent years, with former teenage tearaways becoming volunteers.

Interestingly Taunton Halcon doesn't vote strongly Labour in the way of many deprived areas; while Labour do have seats on the district council their stronghold is in Wellington, a radical town since before the Industrial Revolution.  Instead the ward's residents vote strongly for the three Liberal Democrat candidates, although their majorities were sharply reduced at the 2011 election in which Brooks topped the poll, with single Conservative and Labour candidates all polling strongly.  The ward last went to the polls in May 2013 in which the county elections were combined with another district by-election: both the district by-election and the local county council division (Taunton East) saw Lib Dem holds with UKIP running a strong second.  (A small part of the ward is in the Taunton South division, which had a similar result.)

For the second district by-election in this ward in five months, the Liberal Democrats have selected Federica Smith, who was runner-up in the Taunton Killams and Mountfield ward in 2011.  UKIP's candidate this time round is constituency party chairman Dorothy Baker.  The Tories have gone for Marcus Palmer, who worked for many years at Agusta Westland helicopters in Yeovil and fought Comeytrowe ward in 2011.  Finally, the Labour candidate is community nurse Anna Lynch.

Parliamentary constituency: Taunton Deane
Somerset county council division: Taunton East (most), Taunton South (part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Taunton

May 2013 by-election LD 457 UKIP 295 C 179 Lab 159 Grn 78
May 2011 result LD 694/539/529 C 475 Lab 420
May 2007 result LD 804/709/679 C 372/354/326 Lab 154

[ObserverIE]

St Edmundsbury, Abbeygate (figures in italics represent changes since May 2013 by-election)

Con 42.8 (-3.0) (-1.7)
Green 28.1 (+4.7) (-3.5)
UKIP 10.1 (+10.1) (+10.1)
Lib Dem 9.9 (-6.7) (-1.9)
Lab 9.1 (-5.1) (-3.1)

Taunton Deane, Taunton Halcon (figures in italics represent changes since May 2013 by-election)

Lib Dem 36.9 (-2.6) (-2.2)
UKIP 22.5 (+22.5) (-2.8)
Con 21.6 (-10.5) (+6.3)
Lab 19.1 (-9.3) (+5.5)

Aylesbury Vale, Oakfield

Lib Dem 34.8 (+7.1)
UKIP 27.8 (+16.6)
Con 14.8 (-11.0)
Lab 12.4 (-5.3)
Ind 10.1 (-7.4)

East Lindsey, Chapel St Leonards

Lab 33.5 (+33.5)
UKIP 20.0 (+20.0)
Ind Enderby 18.1
Ind Turton-Leivers 15.4
Con 13.1 (-20.5)

Lab gain Chapel St Leonards from Ind

[YL]

I was half-expecting a UKIP gain or two (Aylesbury and/or East Lindsey) from that lot.  Perhaps Godfrey put people off a bit

Chapel St Leonards doesn't exactly come across in Andrew's preview as the sort of place I'd expect Labour to be winning at the moment.

[minionofmidas]

I was half-expecting a UKIP gain or two (Aylesbury and/or East Lindsey) from that lot.  Perhaps Godfrey put people off a bit

Chapel St Leonards doesn't exactly come across in Andrew's preview as the sort of place I'd expect Labour to be winning at the moment.

They wouldn't have if the right wing independent vote hadn't split three ways, I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I think it's fair to call that one a fluke. Presumably the Labour candidate is well liked in the place as well. Can happen in random unexpected places in Lincs, every now and again.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I was half-expecting a UKIP gain or two (Aylesbury and/or East Lindsey) from that lot.  Perhaps Godfrey put people off a bit

Chapel St Leonards doesn't exactly come across in Andrew's preview as the sort of place I'd expect Labour to be winning at the moment.

They wouldn't have if the right wing independent vote hadn't split three ways, I think.

Chapel St Leonards is in one of the few parts of Lincolnshire where UKIP didn't stand in May, and their by-election candidate was from miles away.  Add that to the fact that the UKIP county council group has already split, and...

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

After four by-elections in the South of England last week, for the second week of October it's the turn of the North with eight by-elections, none of them further south than Staffordshire.  The Tories will try to hold that Staffordshire seat together with a North Yorkshire county council division and a seat in polarised West Lancashire.  In fact there is a distinct Lancashire bias this week with Labour having two seats up for election within the M60 Manchester orbital motorway, together with a seat on the wrong side of the Pennines in Barnsley.  The Tories and Labour also have a seat each to defend in Scotland, but due to time constraints there is no Holy Word for those polls.


ANCOATS AND CLAYTON, Manchester city council; caused by the resignation of the deputy leader of the council, Labour councillor Jim Battle, in order to become deputy police and crime commissioner for Greater Manchester.

Ancoats: one of the bywords for the Industrial Revolution.  Immediately to the north-east of Manchester city centre, Ancoats was the world's first industrial suburb.  The development of the Rochdale Canal and the area's proximity to Manchester led to the building of an enormous number of cotton mills and other industrial works (foundries, glass, aeroplanes).  All these required people to man them, and they came in their thousands, particularly from Ireland and Italy; the 1851 census found Ancoats having a greater population than Bury and Blackburn, and almost half of the area's men had been born in Ireland.  The last industry to move in here was newspaper printing in 1939, with the Daily Express opening a printing works in a building which still looks futuristic today.



But by 1939 Ancoats was already in decline as its industry started to die off, and from the 1960s onwards the terraces which dominated the area, and had turned into slums, were cleared.  The closure of the newspaper works in 1989 sparked the first attempts at regeneration, but these were initially frustrated by, of all things, Manchester's bids for the 1996 and 2000 Olympic Games which led to speculators buying property in the area and then, when the bids came to naught, leaving it to rot.  Nonetheless it wasn't all a failure: the Manchester Velodrome was built for the bids and was the UK's only Olympic-standard velodrome until London 2012, and the work behind those bids eventually came to fruition with the 2002 Commonwealth Games, which led to the development of the City of Manchester Stadium (now home to Manchester City football club) and the associated "Sportcity" development. 

Sportcity, the Velodrome and Philips Park (Manchester's first public park) effectively cut off Ancoats from the eastern suburb of Clayton on the Ashton New Road, another area being redeveloped; the new Metrolink line to Droylsden and (eventually) Ashton-under-Lyne runs along the Ashton New Road.

This is, of course, a strongly Labour ward and it's now more than three years since anybody other than Labour won a ward anywhere in the city of Manchester.  There was some Liberal Democrat activism around the turn of the century in the old Beswick and Clayton ward, and the Lib Dems came reasonably close to Labour in the 2004 and 2006 elections, but their vote has fallen away since then, first gradually, then off a cliff after the Coalition was formed.  At the most recent election in 2012 Labour polled 74% of the vote here, the Greens being best of the rest on just 9%.

So Labour candidate Donna Ludford shouldn't have too much to worry about; she is a GMB member from Moston who was prominent in the campaign to save Miles Platting swimming pool from closure.  Her opposition is Pete Birkinshaw, the regular Green Party candidate for the ward, from central Manchester; Tory candidate Nicholas Savage, who works in e-learning at the University of Manchester and fought his home Fallowfield ward last year; the Lib Dems' John Bridges, a former city councillor from Levenshulme; the Pirate Party UK leader Loz Kaye, standing in his home ward; the BNP's Gareth Black, from central Manchester; and UKIP's Adrienne Shaw, who gives an address all the way out in Denton.


WEASTE AND SEEDLEY, Salford city council; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Thomas Murphy.

Have we been here before?  Yes we have.  This is the second by-election in Weaste and Seedley since May.

When your columnist was nobbut a lad, his mum worked as a school secretary at Hope High School on Eccles Old Road, just up the hill from Hope Hospital, where many of Salford's residents begin and end their days.  Times have changed since then: Hope Hospital has been renamed Salford Royal Hospital and comprehensively redeveloped, while Hope High - always a challenging school to run because of the nature of the local kids - became an academy and moved last year to a new site behind the shiny new BBC buildings at MediaCityUK, on the banks of the Ship Canal. 

MediaCity is just outside the south-east corner of Weaste and Seedley ward, and beyond MediaCity is the point where there is still some industry on the banks of the Ship Canal.  Going north from the canal, we first meet the Eccles New Road with its tramline (Ladywell, Weaste and Langworthy stops are all within the ward boundary), then the roaring chasm that contains the Liverpool and Manchester railway and the M602 motorway.  Immediately to the north of the motorway the main residential part of the ward begins, still dominated by the sort of Coronation Street-like terraced housing that is becoming more and more scarce within the M60.  It can't be denied that this is the model of a deprived inner-city ward, but there are some relatively nice bits, particularly once you get north of Eccles Old Road.  There are far more deprived wards in Salford than this.

During the Blair and Brown years Weaste and Seedley ward was a consistently close fight between the Liberal Democrats and Labour, the Lib Dems finally breaking through with new ward boundaries in 2004 to take the ward's three seats off Labour.  Labour had to wait until 2010 to get the ward back, and since then it has been plain sailing for Labour as the formation of the Coalition led to the disintegration of the Lib Dem vote in Salford.  It won't have helped the Lib Dems that their former ward councillor Geoff Ainsworth ran for re-election in 2011 as an Independent, beating the official Lib Dem candidate into third place.  The last by-election, held on 20th June, introduced another twist into the tale with UKIP finishing a strong second to Labour.

Defending for Labour this time is Stephen Hesling, an advice worker who is Weaste born and bred.  Further education teacher Glyn Wright, the UKIP candidate, is one of five candidates reselected after fighting the June by-election, along with Adam Kennaugh (Conservative, hospital consultant), Kay Pollitt (BNP), Matt Simpson (independent) and Terry Simmons (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition).  The only party other than Labour to have changed their candidate is the Greens, who have selected local businessman Andrew Olsen.  After an appalling performance in the June by-election (finishing seventh out of nine candidates with just 3.3%) the Lib Dems have thrown in the towel.


PARBOLD, West Lancashire council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Barbara Kean, who had served on the council since 2010.

For the third Lancashire by-election this week we travel north-west to Parbold, the point where the River Douglas breaks out of the Lancashire hills onto the wide flat plain of West Lancashire.  Parbold itself lies at the foot of Parbold Hill, a well-known viewpoint with wide views over Liverpool and beyond to the Welsh mountains.  This geographical position meant that the village was a natural choice to build the Leeds and Liverpool Canal through on its way to Wigan; while the canal enabled local coal and sandstone to be exported, Parbold really started to grow with the coming of the railways; the village is a calling point on the line from Manchester and Wigan to Southport and as a result Parbold grew into a commuter village.

The modern Parbold ward also includes the parishes of Dalton to the south and Hilldale and Bispham to the north.  Its commuter profile means that it is definitely on the Conservative side of the hilariously polarised West Lancashire council, nearly all of whose wards are either incredibly Tory (in the rural areas) or incredibly Labour (in Skelmersdale) with very few marginal areas (chiefly in Ormskirk and Burscough).  The Conservative vote in Parbold peaked at 78% in 2007, in a straight fight with Labour, and the most recent district result in 2011 the Tories still beat Labour 68-32.  The local county council division (confusingly called West Lancashire East) has a similar elctoral profile.

So the new Conservative candidate should have little to worry about.  He is David Whittington, a Hilldale parish councillor from the village of Mawdesley to the north.  The Labour candidate is Parbold resident Clare Gillard, and UKIP are fighting the ward for the first time in the shape of Damon Noone, from Skem.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

ROYSTON, Barnsley metropolitan borough council, South Yorkshire; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Graham Kyte.

Over to the wrong side of the Pennines we go.  Royston, a few miles north of Barnsley, is one of the ex-pit villages that dominate the South Yorkshire coalfield.  Although the mine has gone, coal is still part of the village's economy, with a coke works here processing coal from elsewhere.  Obviously this is a very safe Labour ward and the party polled 67% at the most recent election in 2012.  Since 2011 UKIP have been best of the rest here; they polled 14% at the 2012 election.

Defending for Labour is Caroline Makinson, while UKIP have re-selected James Johnson who fought the 2012 election here.  Paul Buckley stands for the Conservatives, while English Democrat Justin Saxton and BNP candidate Mark Baker will dispute the nationalist vote.


SOUTH SELBY, North Yorkshire county council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Margaret Hulme at the age of 81, while on a family holiday in Crete.  Cllr Hulme had represented South Selby since 1997 and had previously won a 1991 by-election in the former Selby Rural division.

This is a seriously misnamed division, as it actually consists of two separate areas to the east and south-east of Selby, cut off from each other by the River Ouse which does not have a crossing point here.  North of the Ouse is the Hemingbrough ward of Selby district, covering a series of villages on the Selby-Howden road between the Ouse and Derwent rivers: the Cliffe and Hemingbrough parishes and part of the Barlby with Osgodby parish.  South of the Ouse, between the Ouse and Aire rivers is Selby district's Camblesforth ward, a sparsely populated area but one which is very important for the UK's economy: this division includes the coal-fired Drax Power Station, Britain's single biggest producer of both electricity and carbon dioxide and the second-largest coal-fired plant in Europe.  This area is divided into the parishes of Camblesforth, Carlton, Drax, Long Drax and Newland.

The presence of Drax power station turns this ward from safe Tory into a key marginal with a history of close results: the Tories beat Labour 53-47 at the 2005 election (held simultaneously with the general election) and 40-34 at the 2013 election.  The two district wards vote pretty much as you would expect them to.  Camblesforth has split representation Conservative/Labour, while Hemingbrough always returns Conservative councillors but not always safely: the second Tory seat came under pressure at the 2011 election from independent Hemingbrough parish councillor David McSherry - who, to add spice, is a former Tory councillor for the ward and ex-husband of Tory ward councillor Kay McSherry, the present leader of Selby district council.

So, an interesting fight is in prospect.  Defending for the Conservatives is Mike Jordan who is a district councillor for his home ward of Sherburn in Elmet, about 20km away at the other end of the district.  Labour may be regretting their selection of their Camblesforth ward councillor Rod Price, from Carlton, after he was forced to apologise for tweeting during the campaign that his opponents were "a fascist, a crypto-fascist and an independent".  David McSherry is having another go at getting elected to the county council after polling 18% as an independent in May, while UKIP have selected their local branch chairman, Selby-based Colin Heath.


BREWOOD AND COVEN, South Staffordshire district council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Ivor Clay.

For our final English by-election of the week we travel south to Brewood and Coven in Staffordshire.  Brewood (pronounced Brood) is a Wolverhampton commuter village, located about six miles north of the city on the Shropshire Union Canal and with a hilariously long Wikipedia entry.  This ward covers about three-quarters of the parish of Brewood and Coven (a small village off the A449 Wolverhampton-Stafford road), lying south of the A5 Watling Street, generally west of the A449 and generally north of the M54 Telford motorway, and includes the Georgian stately home of Chillington Hall.

Recent district council elections in the ward have been Conservative versus Independent battles: the Conservatives have always held two of the three seats, but independent candidate Andy Ball took the third seat from the Tories at the 2007 election, topping the poll, before being defeated in his turn in 2011.  The local county division (Brewood) was safe Conservative in May with UKIP second.

Defending for the Conservatives is Brewood-based Wendy Sutton, wife of county councillor Mark Sutton.  The new independent candidate is parish councillor Moira Alden-Court, from Coven.  Also from Coven is the Labour candidate Lorna Jones, top of the two Labour candidates in 2011 who also fought the county seat in 2013, as did UKIP's Christopher Lenton, from Cheslyn Hay.


GOVAN, Glasgow city council; caused by the death of SNP councillor Alison Hunter at the age of 71, from non-Hodgkins lymphoma.  A former leader of the SNP group on Glasgow council, Hunter had been a councillor since 2007 and before then was the SNP election agent at the 1988 Glasgow Govan parliamentary by-election, which resulted in an SNP gain.

Westminster constituency: Glasgow Central (eastern part), Glasgow South West (western part)
Holyrood constituency: Glasgow Southside (eastern part), Glasgow Pollok (western part)
ONS Travel to Work Area: Glasgow

Charles Baillie (Britannica)
Ryan Boyle (Comm)
John Cormack (Chr)
Moira Crawford (Scot Grn)
Joyce Drummond (Solidarity)
John Flanagan (No Bedroom Tax)
Ewan Hoyle (LD)
John Kane (Lab)
George Laird (Ind)
Janice MacKay (UKIP)
Thomas Rannachan (Ind)
Richard Sullivan (C)
James Trolland (Scot Democratic Alliance)
Helen Walker (SNP)

May 2012 result SNP 2259 (1 seat) Lab 2231 (2 seats) Glasgow First 1001 (1 seat) Ind 644 Grn 229 C 219 Scottish Unionist 143 LD 87 Solidarity 60 Pirate 51; 2-party preferred Lab 2914 SNP 2607
May 2007 result Lab 4618 (3 seats) SNP 2694 (1 seat) C 450 Solidarity 398 LD 394 Grn 377 Scottish Unionist 138 SSP 114; 2-party preferred SNP 3578 Lab 3557


TWEEDDALE WEST, Scottish Borders council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Nathaniel Buckingham, who found himself unable to balance being a councillor with his work and family commitments.

Parliamentary constituency: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Holyrood constituency: Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
ONS Travel to Work Areas: Edinburgh (West Linton), Galashiels and Peebles (rest of ward)

Keith Cockburn (C)
David Cox (Ind)
Mars Goodman (UKIP)
Morag Kerr (SNP)
Veronica McTernan (Lab)
Nancy Norman (LD)
David Pye (Borders Party)

May 2012 result LD 1253 (1 seat) C 885 (1 seat) SNP 780 (1 seat) Lab 336 Borders Party 333
May 2007 result Ind 1339 LD 1202 (1 seat) C 1091 (1 seat) SNP 784 (1 seat) Lab 356

[ObserverIE]

Salford, Weaste and Seedley (change since June 2013 by-election in italics)

Lab 53.1 (-1.6) (+8.7)
UKIP 18.5 (+18.5) (-4.2)
Con 15.9 (+3.2) (+1.2)
Ind Simpson 6.4 (+2.8)
Green 2.8 (+2.8) (-1.7)
BNP 1.9 (-6.8) (-2.3)
TUSC 1.4 (+1.4) (-0.3)

Barnsley, Royston

Lab 67.4 (-)
UKIP 23.2 (+9.4)
Con 5.9 (+0.9)
Eng Dem 1.9 (-1.2)
BNP 1.7 (+1.7)

West Lancashire, Parbold

Con 49.6 (-18.3)
Lab 41.2 (+9.1)
UKIP 9.2 (+9.2)

Manchester, Ancoats and Clayton

Lab 70.5 (-3.8)
UKIP 9.4 (+9.4)
Green 5.1 (-3.5)
Con 4.7 (-2.2)
Pirate 4.5 (+1.5)
BNP 3.3 (+3.3)
Lib Dem 2.5 (-1.5)

Glasgow, Govan

Lab 43.4 (+11.2)
SNP 30.1 (-2.5)
Ind Flanagan 9.4 (+0.1)
Con 4.5 (+1.3)
UKIP 2.4 (+2.4)
Green 2.4 (-0.9)
Ind Laird 2.2
Lib Dem 1.5 (+0.2)
Christian 1.3 (+1.3)
Ind Rannachan 1.1
Communist 0.7 (+0.7)
Solidarity 0.6 (-0.3)
Britannic 0.4 (+0.4)
SDA 0.1 (+0.1)

Lab	2055	2055	2056	2058	2062	2075	2082	2108	2137	2149	2180	2216	2417
SNP	1424	1425	1426	1431	1435	1449	1456	1466	1485	1497	1541	1575	1678
Ind F	446	446	449	455	466	479	483	487	503	517	541	564
Con	215	215	216	216	216	218	229	237	243	269	275
UKIP	113	113	116	116	116	116	119	120	126
Green	112	112	113	116	125	129	131	142	150	158
Ind L	103	103	103	105	105	106	114	118
Lib Dem	73	73	74	75	76	76	79
Chr	60	60	61	62	65	65
Ind R	52	52	52	52	53
Comm	35	35	35	37
Sol	28	28	29
Brit	19	19
SDA	1

South Staffordshire, Brewood and Coven

Con 40.8 (-2.5)
Lab 31.3 (+6.8)
UKIP 20.0 (+20.0)
Ind 7.9

North Yorkshire, South Selby

Con 37.0 (-3.2)
Lab 32.8 (-1.6)
UKIP 17.6 (+17.6)
Ind 12.6 (-5.7)

Scottish Borders, Tweeddale West

Con 42.7 (+18.0)
Lib Dem 25.0 (-9.9)
SNP 13.3 (-8.4)
Borders Party 8.4 (-0.9)
Lab 7.5 (-1.9)
UKIP 1.6 (+1.6)
Ind 1.6

Con	1155	1165	1176	1193	1255	1288
Lib Dem	677	682	690	759	858	1034
SNP	359	369	373	409	444
Borders	228	237	245	272
Lab	203	204	207
UKIP	43	44
Ind	43

Lab gain Govan from SNP (the Scottish Democratic Alliance candidate polled 1 vote).
Con hold Tweeddale West

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some solid results for the comrades there. To which we can add the gaining of the Govan seat.

[minionofmidas]

lol:

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WE HAVE THE FULL COUNT RESULTS BUT YOU DON'T GET THEM YET!

[minionofmidas]

Tweeddale will begin counting in seven minutes!

[Andrea]

Glasgow Govan transfers

SDA eliminated:
1 to SNP

Britannica eliminated:
3 to UKIP, 3 to No Bedroom Tax, 1 to Christians, 1 to Green, 1 to Solidarity, 1 to LD, 1 to Lab, 1 to Con, 1 to SNP
6 Non Transferable

Solidarity eliminated:
6 to No Bedroom Tax, 5 to SNP, 3 to Green, 2 to Lab, 2 to Communists, 2 to Ind L, 1 to Christians, 1 to LD
7 Non transferable

Communist eliminated:
11 to No Bedroom Tax, 9 to Greens,4 to Lab, 4 to SNP, 3 to Christians, 1 to LD, 1 to Ind R
4 No transferable

Ind Rannachan eliminated:
14 to SNP, 13 to No Bedroom Tax, 13 to Lab, 4 to Greens,2 to Con 1 to Ind L
6 Non transferable

Christians eliminated:
11 to Con, 8 to Ind L, 7 to SNP, 7 to Lab, 4 No Bedroom Tax, 3 to LD, 3 to UKIP, 2 to Greens
20 Non transferable

LD eliminated:
26 to Lab, 11 to Greens, 10 to SNP, 8 to Con, 4 to No Bedroom Tax, 4 to Ind L, 1 to UKIP
15 non transferable

Ind Laird eliminated:
29 to Lab, 19 to SNP, 16 to No Bedroom Tax, 8 to Greens, 6 to Con, 6 to UKIP.
34 non transferables

UKIP eliminated:
26 to Con, 14 to No Bedroom Tax, 12 to Lab, 12 to SNP, 8 to Greens
54 non transferable

Greens eliminated:
44 to SNP, 31 to Lab, 24 to No Bedroom Tax, 6 to Con
53 non transferable

Con eliminated:
36 to Lab, 34 to SNP, 23 to No Bedroom Tax
182 non transferable

No Bedroom Tax eliminated:
201 to Lab, 103 to SNP
260 non transferable