What about Pat Roberts?

[tmthforu94]

Milton Wolfe brags about getting a couple state legislators to endorse him. Pat Roberts has the endorsement of almost every statewide officer, quite a few big names from out-of-state, and most state legislators.

The only thing Wolfe has on Pat Roberts is that Pat Roberts has been in the Senate for a long time. Roberts has countered by providing countless examples over how his experience has benefited Kansans and the state as a whole. There is also the threat of Fort Leavenworth closing down. Senator Roberts has one of the most conservative voting records in the Senate - the only vote Wolfe is actively criticizing him on is voting to confirm Sebelius, even though Roberts has been saying for months that Sebelius should be fired.

Most folks aren't being shy about their support for Roberts - most Tea Partiers I know are even supporting him. I have no doubt he will win next August. If I were a guessing man, it would be by around a 70-30 margin.

[tmthforu94]

Oh Milton...

[tmthforu94]

Roberts' internals show him ahead of Wolf 69-15.

Looks about right.

Wolf tied Roberts at the State Convention, sponsored by the Young Republicans. It's worth noting that there were several errors in the voting process - the online votes couldn't be counted and when a revote was done, most of the Roberts people have left, so it was literally done in a room full of Wolf supporters (i.e. all his supporters). 

[tmthforu94]

It's hard to do your job well while maintaining a residence back in your state and being there often, especially when you live out West. I wish the American people would understand that better.

[tmthforu94]

No, no, no. There are quite a few differences between the two.

In terms of similarities, they have both been in for quite a while and both raise questions on residency. Roberts still has more of a presence around the state than Lugar did in Indiana.

Now, Roberts has a lot of statewide officials and big names supporting him, while a lot of big names in Indiana decided to sit it out. I believe the entire Kansas delegation has endorsed Roberts, as well as Governor Brownback. Most state representatives and senators are also coming to his side, while many sat out in Indiana.

Roberts has a conservative record - he was rated as one of the five most conservative senators recently by the Heritage Foundation, and has a long list of helping Kansans on specific issues that he can tout in ads. The only thing Wolf really has on Roberts is that he supported Sebelius' confirmation, though Roberts has repeatedly called on her to resign. I don't see outside money coming in for Wolf like it did for Mourdock - most of those organizations just care about getting the most conservative people elected, and while they may slightly prefer Wolf, in terms of voting the two would be almost identical, so it would make more sense to pour resources into states like South Carolina or Mississippi.

73% of Republicans believe Roberts is conservative enough for Kansas - that number probably needs to drop below 40% for Roberts to lose this, and I just don't see what Wolf has on Roberts to get there. People are going to quickly get tired of it if he just keeps attacking Roberts on residency concerns. Roberts currently leads 69-15% - that's not a lot of wiggle room for Wolf to work with. Additionally, Wolf doesn't have the advantage of winning two statewide races like Mourdock had - his name recognition pales and he's not going to get the donors like Mourdock had. His organization is also not nearly as organized and sizeable as Mourdock was - even in the summer of 2011, any political event or parade/county fair you went to had quite a handful of Mourdock supports to maybe just a few Lugar ones. Wolf doesn't have that here, and Roberts has an enthusiastic base of supporters ready to get him re-elected (myself included).

At this point, I would call this race Likely Roberts and give him about a 90% chance of winning.