TX: Mayor Castro not running

[Miles]

Article.

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[Kaine for Senate '18]

Smart move.  He couldn't win in 2014; better to wait at least four more years.

[Beet]

Smart move.  He couldn't win in 2014; better to wait at least four more years.

^^^

[Maxwell]

He would've been crushed embarassingly by Perry this year. 4 years later he still would be beat, but he would be beat by a margin that is fine for someone who is affiliated with the National Democrats.

[Niemeyerite]

If you don't risk, you don't win. Bad move, IMHO. Texas trended republican in 2012, why is people so sure it'll be more democrat 4 years from now? That's possible IF latinos keep voting democrat, but, what if Martinez is the Presidential candidate in 2016? Latinos are socially conservative, I don't think they'll be as loyal to the DP in 2018 as they are now.

[Talleyrand]

Excellent news. A Democrat can't win statewide in Texas anymore, and I didn't want Castro to face an embarrassing loss to Perry, or get steamrolled by Abbott. However, if Perry wins a fourth term and has eighteen years under his belt in 2018, with heavy voter fatigue, there's a (very) small chance Castro could eke it out then.

[BaldEagle1991]

Good job. I think he's just waiting for the perfect moment.

[Zioneer]

Castro is a very savvy politician and is rightfully not wasting his time this cycle; I think he's going to wait until the Cuban Castros are dead, not because he fears the name association, but because he can pull upon the symbolism of a "new Castro generation".

[Indy Texas]

State Sen. Wendy Davis of Fort Worth may be running.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/politics/State-Sen-Wendy-Davis-discusses-possible-run-for-governor-187388091.html

Obviously won't win, but she doesn't have to run for reelection to her seat in 2014 anyway so she doesn't have anything to lose and could at least get some broader name recognition if she wants to run for Congress in the future or something.

[Talleyrand]

Wendy Davis would be great, especially against Perry, but she can't win, as IndependentTX said. It would be a major victory to make it a single-digit race, but Abbott would prevent that if he wins the primary (likely if he chooses to run).

[wan]

Smart decison

[badgate]

I looooove Wendy Davis, so if she does run I can't wait to volunteer for her.

Personally I want Castro to kick Ted Cruz's ass in '18.

[BaldEagle1991]

Personally I want Castro to kick Ted Cruz's ass in '18.

Don't we all?

I think Abbott is somewhat of a gaffe prone person, so if he runs, expect a surprising toss-up.

[free my dawg]

Good move. Texas will only get bluer, best to run when he has a chance in at least 2022. As much as I'd like to see a Democrat in the governor's seat in Texas I don't think it will happen in 2018.

[Talleyrand]

I looooove Wendy Davis, so if she does run I can't wait to volunteer for her.

Personally I want Castro to kick Ted Cruz's ass in '18.

http://blog.chron.com/bakerblog/2013/01/who-was-adversely-affected-by-todays-texas-senate-lottery/

She drew the short end of the stick in today's lottery, so now she faces reelection in midterm years (in 2014 too). I think she's pretty unlikely to run for Governor now. Shame, but she probably would have lost, especially against Abbott.

[Indy Texas]

Bad news for Wendy. Her only saving grace is that in 2012 she ran quite strongly in some of the more affluent Romney precincts closer to Fort Worth. If she can keep those people in her corner again next year and raise a lot of money (because really, who else are the Democrats going to give money to in Texas?) she might pull off another squeaker.

[Talleyrand]

Bad news for Wendy. Her only saving grace is that in 2012 she ran quite strongly in some of the more affluent Romney precincts closer to Fort Worth. If she can keep those people in her corner again next year and raise a lot of money (because really, who else are the Democrats going to give money to in Texas?) she might pull off another squeaker.

Who is the strongest candidates Republicans can put against her? It's my understanding that last year, Mark Shelton was more or less Generic R, but I could be wrong.

[Indy Texas]

Bad news for Wendy. Her only saving grace is that in 2012 she ran quite strongly in some of the more affluent Romney precincts closer to Fort Worth. If she can keep those people in her corner again next year and raise a lot of money (because really, who else are the Democrats going to give money to in Texas?) she might pull off another squeaker.

Who is the strongest candidates Republicans can put against her? It's my understanding that last year, Mark Shelton was more or less Generic R, but I could be wrong.

Shelton was a second-term state house member who was kind of a nobody. Not a good or bad reputation, just kind of a forgettable guy. Kim Brimer, the guy Davis defeated in '08, was actually a pretty solid legislator. He'd be formidable if he tried to get his seat back, but he's probably not conservative enough for the current GOP primary climate.

[seanNJ9]

I'm not sure Castro has much of a future in Texas other than his current job, or some congressional seat. It's too bad he's not from New Mexico, would be a good challenger to Susan Martinez.

If he does have presidential ambitions his only avenue may be U.S House of Reps > Vice Presidency or Cabinet position > Presidency.