2009/10 UK Election with Blair as PM

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Do you think Labour would have done better or worse had Blair not resigned?

I personally think Labour would have done worse, and the Tories would have gained an overall majority.

[YL]

Hard to say, but I suspect it wouldn't have been much different.  Blair had become very unpopular towards the end, but Brown was too by the time of the election, so I doubt there are that many people who voted Labour with Brown who wouldn't have done with Blair (and they'd probably have mostly voted Lib Dem or other rather than Tory).

[You kip if you want to...]

Would've had an interesting effect in the debates....

[DC Al Fine]

Hard to say, but I suspect it wouldn't have been much different.  Blair had become very unpopular towards the end, but Brown was too by the time of the election, so I doubt there are that many people who voted Labour with Brown who wouldn't have done with Blair (and they'd probably have mostly voted Lib Dem or other rather than Tory).

I imagine moving 1-3% of the votes from Labour to Lib Dem would have some interesting affects for the Tories.

[You kip if you want to...]

Hard to say, but I suspect it wouldn't have been much different.  Blair had become very unpopular towards the end, but Brown was too by the time of the election, so I doubt there are that many people who voted Labour with Brown who wouldn't have done with Blair (and they'd probably have mostly voted Lib Dem or other rather than Tory).

I imagine moving 1-3% of the votes from Labour to Lib Dem would have some interesting affects for the Tories.

Yeah, a majority...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Hard to say, but I suspect it wouldn't have been much different.  Blair had become very unpopular towards the end, but Brown was too by the time of the election, so I doubt there are that many people who voted Labour with Brown who wouldn't have done with Blair (and they'd probably have mostly voted Lib Dem or other rather than Tory).

I imagine moving 1-3% of the votes from Labour to Lib Dem would have some interesting affects for the Tories.

Yeah, a majority...

Not necessarily, it depends on where the votes move, as swings are never uniform. If the swing was uniform, though, the result with a 3% swing from Labour to Lib Dem would look like this:

Conservative: 310
Labour: 238
Liberal Democrat: 73
Other: 28:

Figures calculated from here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swingometer-map

EDIT: Corrected spelling of Labour.

[YL]

I was also thinking that some voters who didn't vote Labour with Brown might have done so with Blair, so that the net effect on the Labour vote might have been pretty small either way.

Would've had an interesting effect in the debates....

There might not have been any.

[Peter the Lefty]

Lib Dems would've done much better.  That's for sure.