Are there any remaining GOP holdouts in western Massachusetts?

[soniquemd21921]

There's that cluster of towns in southwest Hampden County that, I believe, are still voting Republican (Blandford, Tolland, Southwick, Granville). Longmeadow might still have some GOP strength left; that Springfield suburb was 85-90% Republican back in the 50's.

I don't think there's any GOP strength left anywhere in Berkshire County; the last holdouts were Otis, Sheffield and New Marlborough.

Franklin County's GOP strength has also completely faded. I think Orange might have been the last holdout, along with a few sparsely-populated towns in western Franklin (Rowe, Hawley, Monroe). Aside from Dukes and Barnstable, has any other county in Massachusetts changed as dramatically in the past 30-40 years as Franklin has?

Hampshire County? Not sure. Maybe those formerly super-Republican towns in the far western part of the county (Worthington, Middlefield, Southampton, Westhampton).

I would imagine the almost complete collapse of the GOP in rural western Massachusetts would have seemed unthinkable just 25 years ago, just as the decline of GOP strength in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom would have been a decade or so ago too.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hampden County (west of Springfield) is still swingy/lean GOP.

[soniquemd21921]

GOP strength in Westfield (Westfield State University) and South Hadley (Mt. Holyoke College) hasn't eroded all that much (unlike Amherst and Northampton, where GOP strength collapsed decades ago), which is really surprising to me given that they're both college towns.

What caused the complete erosion of GOP strength in rural towns outside of Hampden? A generation ago, rural Franklin County was as Republican as it got. Nixon got more than 66% of the vote in the small towns, and even as late as 1988 most of those towns were still voting Republican (except for that cluster of those Amherst-bordering towns where Ralph Nader got more votes than Bush). Orange is now the lone GOP-leaning town in Franklin.

Perhaps this area saw a similar 'Vermont' effect, i.e. people from urban areas moving in.

[Benj]

Well, here's the 2008 map:



Since Hampden County swung to Obama, it's possible Blandford flipped to Obama in 2012. It was very close in 2008. East Longmeadow and Wilbraham in eastern Hampden County were the only other very close results in 2008; either or both might have flipped to Romney. Otherwise, the 2012 map should be basically the same in western Mass. as no other towns were particularly close, though random swings are always possible.

Ah, here we go: http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2012/general/mass-us-president-election-results-2012.html. East Longmeadow and Wilbraham did flip to Romney. Blandford did not flip to Obama.

As for South Hadley and Westfield, I doubt Westfield State has very many resident students (lots of commuters), and South Hadley is more of a suburb of Holyoke than a college town. Mount Holyoke is a very small college, and most of the population is clustered near Holyoke (in the South Hadley Falls village), not the college. It's also solidly Democratic anyway (61% Obama in 2012).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I've been trying to figure this out for a while but can't figure out the answer - why are the rural towns in western Hampden County the most Republican towns in the state (Granville, Tolland, Blandford, Chester etc.) and then the identically white/rural/small towns right over the county line are super blue (not just a little bit but like 70-30% D). I understand that Berkshire/Hampshire/Franklin counties got the rural Vermont effect of progressives moving in, but why did this not happen in those towns in Hampden County?

A similar divide can be seen south of the state line in Connecticut. You have identical rural towns that are super blue (Norfolk, Cornwall, Salisbury etc) and then immediately east there are heavily Republican ones (Colebrook, Goshen, Hartland). Any idea why this is the case?

[DPKdebator]

I've been trying to figure this out for a while but can't figure out the answer - why are the rural towns in western Hampden County the most Republican towns in the state (Granville, Tolland, Blandford, Chester etc.) and then the identically white/rural/small towns right over the county line are super blue (not just a little bit but like 70-30% D). I understand that Berkshire/Hampshire/Franklin counties got the rural Vermont effect of progressives moving in, but why did this not happen in those towns in Hampden County?

A similar divide can be seen south of the state line in Connecticut. You have identical rural towns that are super blue (Norfolk, Cornwall, Salisbury etc) and then immediately east there are heavily Republican ones (Colebrook, Goshen, Hartland). Any idea why this is the case?

As you pointed out, the three smaller western MA counties experienced a similar pattern of hippie migration as Vermont did, in addition to retirees from New York buying up property in the Berkshires and a plethora of colleges to attract more liberal-minded people. The towns that are closer to Springfield are more blue collar and white ethnic in population, as the area was once a manufacturing hub. It's a Rust Belt-like pocket, as many smaller secondary cities (and their environs) in New England are. For the small farming communities like Tolland, Granville, and Blandford that are closer to the Berkshires, my only real theory is that they just diverged due to differences in migration patterns (perhaps a lack of colleges being a factor).