The most pickable part of the Clinton-Obama Coalition for Republicans

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Forget the 270towin maps out there. I see a pattern where the Clinton-Obama coalition has replaced the Nixon-Reagan coalition as the dominant presidential political force but 2012 showed some signs of fracturing for the Democrats' coalition, similar to the GOPs dropoff from 1984 to 1988, albeit a smaller swing downward and with the same President. So which demographic groups could trend toward the GOP enough by 2016 to tip the 3.8% Democratic win this year to a slight or significant GOP win.

Theories:
Jews-Swung hard toward Romney. The GOP already has most of the far religious Jews and I don't expect committed Manhattan liberal Jews even to swing to Chris Christie. But I'm thinking suburban Jews will keep moving GOP.

Upper-Midwest Protestants/Ethnic Catholics: Always isolated into a fairly liberal region, nationalization and the decline of unions may improve GOP Presidential performance in these crucial states.

Hispanic Homeowners-Once Latinos move to even a first-ring suburb, they may become less progressive and lean less Democratic. We saw some evidence of it in 2004. I think that over the next four years as housing recovers more Latinos will leave urban areas and become homeowners.

Thoughts? This really is the central question as to whether the GOP can win in 2016.

[Chaddyr23]

Your best bet would be Jews. I know so many younger Jews that are Republican but parents are Democrats.

Hispanic Homeowners were hardest hit by the recession given that they had the shoddiest loans. Don't expect them to come back.

[Frodo]

The Jews.  In the meantime, the Hindus and Muslims will be taking their place. 

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Upper-Midwest Protestants/Ethnic Catholics: Always isolated into a fairly liberal region, nationalization and the decline of unions may improve GOP Presidential performance in these crucial states.

Certainly reachable, but only if the GOP can overcome the impression that a they want to be sock-puppets for bigots and the 1%.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Agreed so far on most counts. I also do think Asians could start swinging back in 16 with the right candidate.

[Blue3]

Agreed so far on most counts. I also do think Asians could start swinging back in 16 with the right candidate.

Most of the Asian-Americans are Muslim, so I doubt it.

Jews are most likely to swing to the Republicans, at least the younger generation.

[Beet]

Blacks. Simply the group the GOP has the most upside with, literally. If Republicans can go from 7% of the black vote with 55% turnout, to 17% with 50% turnout, that would be huge. And Obama not being on the ballot in the future would make it easier.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

I see African-Americans, especially in suburbia, going back to Bush #s once its an O'Malley or another generic white Dem running again.

[Blue3]

I don't think so. They'll remember how many Republicans treated the first African-American President, the dog whistles, the birthers, etc. Plus, Obama will probably be campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee will be. And once you vote in 2 elections, chances are that you'll keep voting for the rest of your life.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Jews.  In the meantime, the Hindus and Muslims will be taking their place. 

In fact, Obama got over 70% of the entire non-Christian vote.

[TNF]

Younger Jews might very well trend Republican and that's a distinct possible pickup for the GOP. Other than that, I'd say Latino voters would be the easiest pickoff for the Republicans, because George W. Bush did very well with the demographic, their social conservatism can be appealed to, and seriously, the Republicans could be the party of immigration reform if they really wanted.

[opebo]

In the near term only Jews are likely, but they're not numerous enough to swing any state except possibly Florida (though even there, countervailing trends with the increase of Hispanics/blacks and the decrease of non-Jewish whites will probably swamp any Jewish turn to the dark side).

The only real hope in the near term is to swing those Protestant and Catholic-ethnic whites in the Northern Midwest.  Which is a tough go but a lot more doable than any significant inroads with the burgeoning minorities.

[Reaganfan]

I don't think so. They'll remember how many Republicans treated the first African-American President, the dog whistles, the birthers, etc. Plus, Obama will probably be campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee will be. And once you vote in 2 elections, chances are that you'll keep voting for the rest of your life.

Ahh I disagree. Look at the Saxby Chambliss 2008 race. It's a three point race with the Democrat close behind on the day Obama is on the ballot. One month later, Obama is off the ballot, and the Democrat falls 14% behind. Not a coincidence.

[Blue3]

I don't think so. They'll remember how many Republicans treated the first African-American President, the dog whistles, the birthers, etc. Plus, Obama will probably be campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee will be. And once you vote in 2 elections, chances are that you'll keep voting for the rest of your life.

Ahh I disagree. Look at the Saxby Chambliss 2008 race. It's a three point race with the Democrat close behind on the day Obama is on the ballot. One month later, Obama is off the ballot, and the Democrat falls 14% behind. Not a coincidence.

But after 2008, then seeing the disasterour consequences of 2010, then voting for Obama again in 2012... I think if they voted in both 2008 and 2012 for the Democrat, they'll keep voting and keep voting for Democrats.

2014 will be a good test to see.

Younger Jews might very well trend Republican and that's a distinct possible pickup for the GOP. Other than that, I'd say Latino voters would be the easiest pickoff for the Republicans, because George W. Bush did very well with the demographic, their social conservatism can be appealed to, and seriously, the Republicans could be the party of immigration reform if they really wanted.

Latinos aren't that socially conservative. Of those that voted in 2012, 57% supported gay marriage, even more than white people (it could be because the overall Latino voter demographic is a lot younger too).

[Reaganfan]

I don't think so. They'll remember how many Republicans treated the first African-American President, the dog whistles, the birthers, etc. Plus, Obama will probably be campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee will be. And once you vote in 2 elections, chances are that you'll keep voting for the rest of your life.

Ahh I disagree. Look at the Saxby Chambliss 2008 race. It's a three point race with the Democrat close behind on the day Obama is on the ballot. One month later, Obama is off the ballot, and the Democrat falls 14% behind. Not a coincidence.

But after 2008, then seeing the disasterour consequences of 2010, then voting for Obama again in 2012... I think if they voted in both 2008 and 2012 for the Democrat, they'll keep voting and keep voting for Democrats.

2014 will be a good test to see.

Younger Jews might very well trend Republican and that's a distinct possible pickup for the GOP. Other than that, I'd say Latino voters would be the easiest pickoff for the Republicans, because George W. Bush did very well with the demographic, their social conservatism can be appealed to, and seriously, the Republicans could be the party of immigration reform if they really wanted.

Latinos aren't that socially conservative. Of those that voted in 2012, 57% supported gay marriage, even more than white people (it could be because the overall Latino voter demographic is a lot younger too).

Another positive for Republicans is that if a campaign as flawed and a candidate as plain as Mitt Romney could come that close to beating an incumbent Obama, then after eight years of a Democrat, a candidate like say...Marco Rubio...could begin 2016 with 206 electoral votes and then go up against someone who in all likelihood will not be a minority and go from there.

[Paul Kemp]

Another positive for Republicans is that if a campaign as flawed and a candidate as plain as Mitt Romney could come that close to beating an incumbent Obama, then after eight years of a Democrat, a candidate like say...Marco Rubio...could begin 2016 with 206 electoral votes and then go up against someone who in all likelihood will not be a minority and go from there.

Judging by this, you would think that Obama beat Romney by a margin as close as 2004...

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Another positive for Republicans is that if a campaign as flawed and a candidate as plain as Mitt Romney could come that close to beating an incumbent Obama, then after eight years of a Democrat, a candidate like say...Marco Rubio...could begin 2016 with 206 electoral votes and then go up against someone who in all likelihood will not be a minority and go from there.

How is there anything positive to take out of this last election as a Republican? The GOP lost to a weak incumbent with an approval rating scratching 50 and the unemployment rate at 8%. Romney's failure with Latinos was so devastating that the party was racing to the middle on immigration reform almost immediately after the election.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

The Latino "social conservative" thing seems to be a myth. I think they basically mirror whites on social issues. They may vote more Democratic as comparably social-valued whites based on economics. I think Latinos that buy in suburbia (even if its an older Dem-leaning first ring burb) are more likely to swing to the GOP but the GOP needs to reengage on homeownership and education issues. A few in the 2016 field could swing back to near Bush 04 numbers.

[Devils30]

I think someone like Christie would run very strong with upper midwest Catholics and possibly win WI,IA,OH and maybe even MI. Rubio on the other hand is probably a poor fit for this group and the GOP is probably more likely long term to win the midwest than retaking states like NV, CO, VA.

[Chaddyr23]

Agreed so far on most counts. I also do think Asians could start swinging back in 16 with the right candidate.

We're not coming back for quite a while. Too anti-immigrant plus we are way too cosmopolitan now

[Indy Texas]

It's not so much that Jews are trending Republican, but that they're ceasing to exist as a cohesive voting bloc. The Millennial generation of Jews vote like their Gentile counterparts more than like each other. That is, young Jews in the Atlanta suburbs will vote Republican; young Jews in Connecticut and LA will vote Democratic. The reasons they do so will have nothing to do with their being Jewish.