The 1,000 Districts Series
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traininthedistance
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« on: January 22, 2013, 03:25:13 PM »

I think Miles likely used total population for each state rather than the apportionment population, and then did a division and rounded down.


Yeah, I tried; I figured someone else would put something more accurate out though.

This would be a good topic for a series.

Why the heck not.

I'm not going to do all of the states, but I did (surprise surprise) New Jersey, so let's kick it off there.

300K is a really really reasonable number for the most part; I allowed a little more deviation than I usually do in the name of clean lines and keeping municipalities, counties, CoIs together; every district is no further than 1 percent away from the ideal (maximum allowed deviation 3.03K, maximum actual deviation 2.53K) and only four municipalities are split, all of them in or around VRA districts.  VAP is given for all races with over 10% in a district, if no numbers are given then it's supermajority white.  I'll do this in two posts b/c of word limits.

The entire state:



DISTRICT 1- CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC CITY.  Pop 303,357.  O(bama) 54.0%, D(em) 52.5%.  69W/12B/11H.  The southern Jersey Shore, all of Cape May and most of Atlantic County.  Toss-up.

DISTRICT 2- VINELAND-DELAWARE BAY.  Pop 302,907.  O 56.4%, D 54.3%.  66W/16B/16H.  All of Cumberland and Salem counties, and adjoining rural portions of Gloucester and Atlantic.  Probably the most agricultural district in the state.  Lean D.

Close up on south and central NJ:



DISTRICT 3- GLOUCESTER-WINSLOW.  Pop 301,535.  O 58.2%, D 56.9%.  80W/12B.  Most of Gloucester County, and the southernmost townships in Camden (mostly Winslow, hence the name).  Suburbs and exurbs mostly.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 4- MID-CAMDEN.  Pop 301,541.  O 63.4%, D 60.7%.  77W/11B.  Entirely within suburban areas of Camden, dominated by Cherry Hill, Gloucester, and the older small towns in between.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 5- CAMDEN-BURLINGTON RIVERBANK.  Pop 303,048.  O 73.2%, D 69.2.  49.6W/28B/17.2H.  A line of cities and towns along the Delaware River from Camden City to Burlington.  The first majority-minority district, and the only one possible in southern NJ.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 6- BURLINGTON COUNTY.  Pop 303,890.  O 55.1%, D 49.9%.  78W/10B.  Almost all of the rest of Burlington County, except for the very southern tip.  Ergo, a broad mix of suburbs, farms, and the Pines (which it mostly splits with 7).  Toss-up.

DISTRICT 7- LONG BEACH-BARNEGAT-PINES.  Pop 304,111.  O 42.3%, D 43.1%.  This district takes in the rest of Atlantic County (primarily the Piney hub of Hammonton), cuts off the bottom Piney tip of Burlington, and then takes up the bulk of Ocean County, sweeping in all of the less-dense southern and western portions.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 8- SUBURBAN OCEAN.  Pop 301,752. O 41.3%, D 41.7%.  The northeastern corner of Ocean County, which is much more densely populated and clearly within NYC's orbit.  Brick, Lakewood, Toms River, and several smaller towns.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 9- TRENTON-HAMILTON.  Pop 303,365.  O 63.9%, D 59.4%.  60W/21B/14H.  All of Mercer County is here except for Princeton and the two Windsors, and then it takes in much of southern Hunterdon.  I tried to avoid so much of Hunterdon going into the more urban Trenton district (having this take more of Mercer and 12 take more of Somerset instead), but I couldn't make the math work out to do that and not split towns.  Anyway, the part of Mercer in 12 is more NYC-oriented, whereas the part here still has more of a Trenton-focused separate identity.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 10- MONMOUTH INLAND.  Pop 301,125.  O 43.5%, D 42.8%.  Population math unfortunately didn't let me take 11 all the way down the coast, so it has Manalapan and Brielle.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 11- MONMOUTH SHORE.  Pop 302,235.  O 51.6%, D 49.9%.  Pretty self-explanatory.  Lean R.

DISTRICT 12- PRINCETON-FRANKLIN-SOUTH MIDDLESEX.  Pop 303,975.  O 64.3%, D 58.5% 59W/21A.  This one's a hard one to name, but it's also a cohesive district that epitomizes Central Jersey.  Princeton and the Windsors, and then the southernmost reaches of Middlesex and Somerset.  As mentioned before, I'd rather Hillsborough be here, and have it withdraw from Middlesex so 9 can take a Windsor or two, but the math doesn't quite work out.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 13- CENTRAL MIDDLESEX.  Pop 305,699.  O 58.4%, D 56.9%.  57W/20H/13A. Takes in Aberdeen/Matawan from Monmouth (to finish that county), but the rest is Middlesex, mostly south of the Raritan but with Perth Amboy rather than New Brunswick for population purposes.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 14- EDISON-WOODBRIDGE-NEW BRUNSWICK.   Pop 305,133.  O 63.2%, D 62.5%. 47W/18H/25A.  Mostly those three large towns, with a couple adjoining smaller ones (Metuchen, Carteret, Highland Park).  The only district entirely within Middlesex (though 13 is almost as well), the second minority-majority district, and the district with the highest Asian population in the state.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 15- HUNTERDON-SOMERSET.  Pop 301,781.  O 44.0%, D 38.6%.  The rest of Hunterdon (most of it), and almost all of the rest of Somerset (excluding only Green Brook, Watchung, and North Plainfield, which are on the wrong side of Watchung Mountain).  I don't know for sure, but likely the richest district in the state.  Safe R.

More to come in the next post!
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2013, 04:07:31 PM »

Closeup on the urban northeast:



DISTRICT 16- ELIZABETH-NEWARK NORTH AND MEADOWS.  Pop 301,352.  O 75.2%, D 75.2%.  26W/15B/53H.  The first VRA district, it takes all of Elizabeth and the portion of Hudson County west of the Hackensack River (Kearney, Harrison, E. Newark), and splits Newark to take in the Hispanic portions (Ironbound and most of the North Ward).  Safe D.

DISTRICT 17- NEWARK SOUTH AND CENTRAL-UNION EAST.  Pop 302,014.  O 81.9%, D 80.1%.  25W/52B/18H.  Our second VRA district, and first of two AA districts.  The rest of Newark, and then a string down the eastern third of Union County, taking in towns with sizable AA populations like Roselle, Rahway, and Linden.  Clark doesn't really fit but it needed to be added for population, and Union is mostly in 18 but a little bit is here for connection and population.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 18- ORANGE-IRVINGTON-UNION CENTRAL.  Pop 302,856.  O 79.3%, D 73.4%.  33W/53B/10H.  The second AA district, it is centered on the black, non-Newark areas of Essex County (Orange, East Orange, Irvington), including Essex towns with sizable AA minorities (Maplewood/S. Orange/southern half of Montclair), and then dips into Union to make room for District 20 and unpack things a bit.  Montclair and Union are split here.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 19- PLAINFIELD-PISCATAWAY-UNION WEST.  Pop 303,905. O 60.5%, D 55.8%.  55W/16B/16H/12A.  The rest of Union, Middlesex, and Somerset are all here, centered on the two named towns and a series of mostly-swingy, uniformly-affluent towns in Union.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 20- SUBURBAN ESSEX.  Pop 302,283.  O 56.7%, D 56.2%.  67W/13H.  The rest of Essex County, including super-liberal areas like Upper Montclair and West Orange, super-conservative areas like the Caldwells, and everything in between.   Lean D.

DISTRICT 21- HUDSON SOUTH.  Pop 300,855.  O 74.9%, D 74.8%.  40W/19B/20H/18A.  Bayonne, Hoboken, most of Jersey City.  Much like JC itself, very very diverse.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 22- HUDSON NORTH.  Pop 301,568.  O 71.0%, D 71.4%.  25W/60H/11A.  The rest of Hudson County, and two towns in Bergen.  Very heavily Hispanic, obviously our fourth VRA district.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 23- PALISADES.  Pop 305,143.  O 62.4%, D 63.4%.  50W/17H/24A.  Englewood and Teaneck are the largest of many many towns in this all-Bergen district that takes the Hackensack River as its western border.  It's minority-majority by total population, and has the second-highest Asian population.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 24- MEADOWLANDS-HACKENSACK-FAIR LAWN.  Pop 305,467.  O 56.1%, D 57.8%.  65W/19H.  Another all-Bergen district, this one in between the Hackensack and Passaic rivers.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 25- NORTH BERGEN-HALEDON-HAWTHORNE.  Pop 305,165.  O 45.6%, D 43.7%.  The rest of Bergen , and the aformentioned towns north of Paterson to fill out population.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 26- URBAN PASSAIC.  Pop 305,981.  O 76.5%, D 74.4%.  26W/17B/51H.  Paterson, Passaic, Clifton, Prospect Park, and our last VRA district. Safe D.

DISTRICT 27- POMPTON-MORRIS NORTH.  Pop 301,460.  O 43.5%, D 42.5%.  The rest of Passaic, and a large swath of northern Morris County.  The part of Passaic north of the wasp-waist was almost its own county called "Pompton", hence the name.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 28- MORRIS CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  Pop 303,885.  O 47.1%, D 43.0%.  72W/13H/10A.  Most of Morris County, including all the well-known towns of note (Madison, Boonton, Morristown, Dover).  Probably the least secure of all Safe R districts on this map, if only because they don't take too kindly to Palin-types here.

DISTRICT 29- SKYLANDS.  Pop 304,607.  O 40.8%, D 37.1%.  Sussex, Warren, and the western tip of Morris.  The most Republican district on the map, Safe R.

...

Final tally includes:
3 Hispanic VRA districts (16,22,26)
2 Black VRA districts (17,18)
3 more districts which are majority-minority by VAP (5,14,21) and one by total pop only (23)

12 Safe D
6 Lean D
2 Tossup
1 Lean R
8 Safe R
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2013, 04:10:36 PM »

I'm glad you took me up on that!

I may add in a few southern states if you don't mind Cheesy
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #3 on: January 22, 2013, 04:16:52 PM »

I'm glad you took me up on that!

I may add in a few southern states if you don't mind Cheesy

Oh, of course.  I don't have the time or inclination to do everything, so contributions are obviously welcome.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #4 on: January 22, 2013, 05:10:55 PM »

here is the state of Arkansas

and Wyoming
 
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2013, 05:29:57 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2013, 05:34:39 PM by traininthedistance »


I'm guessing district 9 is majority black?

Anyway, here's an easy little one.  Delaware!  Max deviation is only 746 this time.



DISTRICT 1- WILMINGTON AREA.  Pop 299,113. 70.5% Obama. 64W/23B.  Not much to say here, safe D.

DISTRICT 2- NEWARK-DOVER.  Pop 298,764. 67.5% O.  65W/23B.  The border between 2 and 3 tries to exactly mirror the city limits of Smyrna and Dover in Kent County, it's not possible to be exact with the lines we're given but this is pretty close.  Note that it is technically possible to do a Dover-Wilmington district and a Newark-suburbs district such that the former is below 50% white by total population, but this seems obviously better.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 3- SLOWER LOWER. Pop 300,057.  46.6% O.  78W/13B.  Safe R, of course.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2013, 12:27:53 AM »

I tried my hand at AR as well. My goals were:

- Draw a Republican map, since they'll probably be redistricting there in the future.
- Keep Jerry's majority-black seat, which I guess would be a helpful vote sink for the Republicans anyway.
- Keep the county splits relatively scarce.

Here's the product Cheesy



My model for this was more or less the TN map; the Republicans split the Nashville suburban counties among several districts so that they would outweigh whatever residual Democratic strength there was in the rural counties. I did a similar think in central AR with the counties around Pulaski.

CD2 is 50.5% black VAP.

The thing that I dislike the most about this map is CD3's arm up to Saline County. Its kinda awkward, but the non-Saline counties are pretty Democratic downballot and needed to be checked.

I'm also a bit lukewarm on the Washington County split, but all of Fayetteville proper is in CD9 and no municipality in that area is split.

Outside of CD2, all the districts are over 75% white.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2013, 07:58:20 PM »

Ok, here is arkansas redo with some of the same things miles has in his map

Vra district is 56% black
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2013, 10:04:43 AM »

Oh, btw, the apportionment for 1000 districts:

Actually it would be exactly this, with DC getting 4 EV's  (Green indicates where I have a state getting one more rep than Miles did.  These are mostly the states that have enough representatives that they have an average population per district below than the national average, but not all of them. I think Miles likely used total population for each state rather than the apportionment population, and then did a division and rounded down.

BTW, Georgia got the 1000th seat, with Ohio in line to get the 1001th seat.

Alabama   16
Alaska   2
Arizona   21
Arkansas   9
California   121
Colorado   16
Connecticut   12
Delaware   3
Florida   61
Georgia   32
Hawaii   4
Idaho   5
Illinois   42
Indiana   21
Iowa   10
Kansas   9
Kentucky   14
Louisiana   15
Maine   4
Maryland   19
Massachusetts   21
Michigan   32
Minnesota   17
Mississippi   10
Missouri   19
Montana   3
Nebraska   6
Nevada   9
New Hampshire   4
New Jersey   29
New Mexico   7

New York   63
North Carolina   31
North Dakota   2
Ohio   37
Oklahoma   12
Oregon   12
Pennsylvania   41
Rhode Island   3
South Carolina   15
South Dakota   3
Tennessee   21
Texas   82

Utah   9
Vermont   2
Virginia   26
Washington   22
West Virginia   6
Wisconsin   18
Wyoming   2
TOTAL   1000


Workin' on New York, which is going to take a nice long time (not just because it's a large state, but DRA is so sloooooow whenever I load NY).  In the meantime, let's get through New England.  Starting with Maine:



All districts are super-white, of course, and no towns are split.  DRA combines a lot of towns in Maine into single voting districts (especially in the sparsely populated North Woods); if I had finer control I'd  be able to clean up the boundary between 2 and 4. 

DISTRICT 1: PORTLAND-SOUTH PORTLAND-BIDDEFORD.  Pop 333,755.  63.9% Obama.  York County, the city of Portland, and a couple of urbanized towns to connect the two.  This being New England, I'd rather name things after towns than counties (though there will be a couple exceptions); I still try to keep counties together when possible though.  Anyway, Safe D.

DISTRICT 2: AUBURN-LEWISTON-CUMBERLAND NORTH.  Pop 330,512.  57.6% Obama.  Working up the coast, this district is centered on Auburn/Lewiston and the northern suburbs of Portland, and then shares Saghadoc with 3 and Oxford with 4.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 3: AUGUSTA-DOWN EAST.  Pop 331,765.  56.2% Obama.  Kennebec County and the rest of the coastal counties.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 4: BANGOR-AROOSTOOK-NORTH WOODS.   Pop 332,329. 52.7% Obama.  As mentioned in the intro, I don't really like the hook around Rumford in Oxford County, and finer gradations there (where there are a lot of uninhabited and nearly-uninhabited townships) would help clean it up.  This may very well be the least-densely populated district east of the Mississippi- a lot of those woods are empty.  Tossup.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2013, 05:55:37 PM »

My (very quick) attempt at what Republicans might draw in NC:



This would be 22-9.

Democratic sinks:
- 2 majority-black seats where Butterfield's district is currently located.
- 3 in the Triangle
- 2 in near Fayetteville; the Lumberton-Wilmington CD is less than 60% Obama, but is very heavily D downballot.
- 1 in Charlotte, which is 85% Obama. Black VAP majority.
- 1 in the Triad, which is also (barely) over 80% Obama. Black VAP majority.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2013, 06:03:35 PM »

Vermont!



These two districts are about as even as you can get.  District 1 (VERMONT EAST) is 312,867; District 2 (VERMONT WEST) is 312,874; both are 67.8% Obama and Safe D. 

While I'm sure perfect equality is possible (max deviation was 4 here, oh no!), I chose instead to get as close as I could while also hewing to the main division in the state- the Green Mountains, whose ridgeline conveniently tends to mirror county boundaries.  The western half is, while smaller in area, more populous due to Burlington, ergo I had to cross the mountains at some point.  From a topographic perspective crossing up by St. Albans might have been better than putting the bulk of Bennington County in the east district, but I also wanted to keep the relatively dense Burlington hinterlands together.





New Hampshire.

Trying to figure out the best lines for NH was surprisingly difficult for such a small and homogeneous state.  Something like District 4 was obvious, and even then, I toggled back and forth trying to hew closer to county lines or the state's official tourist regions (eventually settling on county lines).  But how to divide the Merrimack Valley and surroundings was a lot less clear.  Max deviation is 595, not great but it's going to be hard to get perfection if you want sensible districts, especially the large towns in the south of the state.

DISTRICT 1: MERRIMACK EAST (ROCKINGHAM).  Pop 328,995.  47.5% Obama. Eventually what I decided to do was to make District 2 an all-Hillsborough district and work out from there.  So, 1 is a thoroughly exurban district that is mostly Rockingham County, but takes in the rest of Hillsborough and excludes the older city of Portsmouth.  Lotsa Taxachusetts exiles in what is going to be the most Republican district in all of New England.  Lean R.

DISTRICT 2: MANCHESTER-NASHUA-HILLSBOROUGH.  Pop 329,592. 52.6% Obama.  The vast majority of Hillsborough is here, including the two main cities of Manchester and Nashua.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 3: PORTSMOUTH-CONCORD-LACONIA.  Pop 329,360.  57.5% Obama.  Less exurban and more small-town than District 1 and 2, it takes in all of Belknap and Strafford, the remainder of Rockingham (mostly Portsmouth), and most of Merrimack.  Early drafts tried to push it both further north and/or down the coast in concordance with the tourist regions, but that led to deviation problems when dividing 1 and 2 among the large exurban towns, and I'm not sure it was actually any better on the CoI front.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 4: WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTH AND WEST.  Pop 328,523.  60.0% Obama.  Splits Merrimack and takes the entirety of all five other counties.  Touristy, rural, basically an extension of Vermont.  Safe D.



Triple feature!  Li'l Rhody!  Rhode Island has three districts to apportion among 39 towns; if you make the following assumptions:

1) towns should not be split
2) deviation should be as low as possible
3) lines should be reasonably sensible, and not split obvious distinct CoIs like the urban Providence core, Newport County, or Washington (aka South County).

then I think this might in fact be the only possible map.



RI does not have partisan statistics.  Max deviation is fairly high (3,175), and while that might be improvable, it would only be at the expense of a much worse map.  Unlike VT and NH, there is one district with a sizable minority population.

DISTRICT 1: PROVIDENCE-PAWTUCKET.  Pop 347,681.  57W/10B/24H.  Providence, Pawtucket, Central Falls, N. Prov, E. Prov. So, yeah, the urban core.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 2: WOONSOCKET-CRANSTON-WARWICK.  Pop 351,329.  The rest of Providence County, minus Scituate, plus Warwick.  You could probably get a cleaner-looking map by giving Scituate to 2 and microchopping Warwick, but that's the coward's way out.  No partisan stats, but this is RI so I'll assume Safe D.

DISTRICT 3: NARRAGANSETT BAY.  Pop 353,557.  South County, Newport, Bristol, and as much of Kent and Scituate as is left.  All two townships that voted for Romney are here, but let's be serious.  Safe D.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2013, 06:06:36 PM »

My (very quick) attempt at what Republicans might draw in NC:



This would be 22-9.

Democratic sinks:
- 2 majority-black seats where Butterfield's district is currently located.
- 3 in the Triangle
- 2 in near Fayetteville; the Lumberton-Wilmington CD is less than 60% Obama, but is very heavily D downballot.
- 1 in Charlotte, which is 85% Obama. Black VAP majority.
- 1 in the Triad, which is also (barely) over 80% Obama. Black VAP majority.


Very nice; I wonder if the southern Charlotte district is one that would be in danger of flipping over the next decade.  I may try my hand at a neutral map at some point, but that won't be for quite awhile, if ever.
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Miles
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« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2013, 06:18:53 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2013, 06:24:50 PM by MilesC56 »


Very nice; I wonder if the southern Charlotte district is one that would be in danger of flipping over the next decade.  I may try my hand at a neutral map at some point, but that won't be for quite awhile, if ever.

That was one of the only districts where I felt like I was stretching the Republican votes a bit too thin. Its only 52/47 McCain, but its still 59/41 R average. The Republicans would probably be ok there if they got a relatively young candidate who would become entrenched over the decade.

The other three districts around Charlotte are 55/44-ish McCain.

The Republican districts in Guilford and Forsyth counties are both 56/43 McCain.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2013, 01:31:16 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2013, 01:33:59 PM by traininthedistance »

Next up, Massachusetts and its 21 districts.  Only Boston is split; there is one all-Boston district, one almost-all-Boston district, and one district with a tiny sliver of Bunker Hill.  County lines are split all over the place, which is OK because most MA counties have literally no function.  Max deviation is 2,776, which is a little higher than I'd like, but I've worked on this enough.  Also, it's worth noting that the "Dem Average" is hilariously R-skewed, seeing as it's basically the Brown v. Coakley race.  You'll be seeing a lot of Lean D districts with R averages here, but I'm not actually going to call something safe unless it has a D average- with one exception informed by the extraordinary circumstances of an actual 2012 race.



DISTRICT 1: BERKSHIRE-MOHAWK-QUABBIN NORTH.  Pop 313,619.  O(bama) 67.4%, D(em) 60.4%.  All of the Berkshires and Franklin County (whose Mohawk Trail gives the district part of its name), the northwestern rural portion of Worcester near Quabbin Reservoir, and some more rural towns in Hampden and Hampshire.  Basically the most rural Western MA district, and also the most Democratic outside of the inner Boston area; you could easily call this "Baja Vermont".  Safe D.

Closeup on Springfield and Worcester area:



DISTRICT 2: SPRINGFIELD METRO.  Pop 311,332.  O 64.1%, D 51.7%. 67W/10B/19H.  Pretty self-explanatory.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 3: PIONEER VALLEY-SOUTH QUABBIN.  Pop 313,391. O 64.5%, D 54.3%.  Intermediate between the urban District 2 and the rural 1, this district is centered on the very socially liberal "Five Colleges" area of Amherst, Northampton, Holyoke, etc., which has a somewhat distinct identity from Springfield but is within its orbit.  Then it sweeps up some rural areas to the south and east, because  Western Mass. is underpopulated.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 4: WORCESTER METRO.  Pop 310,497.  O 61.1%, D 49.2%.  74W/11H.  You could probably do slightly better on the CoI front by making this district more spherical, rather than extending east-west, but I couldn't really make the population math work out in the MetroWest area with that configuration, le sigh.  The first of many strong Obama districts with Republican averages.  Lean D on principle, though it's probably safe in practice.

DISTRICT 5: BLACKSTONE VALLEY.  Pop 312,163. O 51.0%, D 35.7%. A swath of exurban towns in southern Worcester and Norfolk counties, and the second-most Republican district in the state.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 6: FITCHBURG-LEOMINSTER AREA.  Pop 314,568.  O 55.2%, D 42.1%  The "North County" designation doesn't really work, because the western edge of North County has to be eaten up by 1, and this district takes in a fair amount of northwestern Middlesex as well.  Lean D, and unlike 4 this one actually could fall in a wave.

Greater Boston.



DISTRICT 7: METROWEST. Pop 312,192.  O 61.8%, D 49.3%.  Except for Wellesley, which I wanted to fit in 14 but couldn't do in the end, every one of these towns is actually part of some MetroWest organization or another.  Mostly Middlesex but a couple Worcester County towns as well; like 4 this is functionally safe but Lean D on principle.

DISTRICT 8: LAWRENCE- MERRIMACK VALLEY EAST.  Pop 309,763.  O 58.7%, D 43.9%. 73W/22H.  Entirely within Essex County.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 9: NORTH SHORE.  Pop 310,720. O 62.4%, D 48.9%. 81W/11H.  Lynn is the largest city here.  Despite the R average, I will in fact call this one Safe D, on the grounds that John freaking Tierney managed to beat Richard Tisei here despite giving up, because the national Republican brand is just so toxic here.

DISTRICT 10: LOWELL- MERRIMACK VALLEY WEST.  Pop 309,400. O 54.3%, D 39.9% 79W/10A.  Let's be generous to the Republicans and call this Tossup.

DISTRICT 11: WONDERLAND.  Pop 312,419.  O 60.5%, D 48.4%.  70W/15H.  It's a cohesive district- the near-north areas of Greater Boston centered on Revere and Malden, transitioning between the urban core and the North Shore, but damned if I have a good name for it.  Perhaps "Revere/Malden" would be better than what I chose, which is the northern terminus of the MBTA's Blue Line, but whatever.  This district does dip a tiny bit into Boston proper, splitting Bunker Hill with 15.  "Lean D on principle", yet again.

DISTRICT 12: GREATER HAHVAHD.  Pop 311,848.  O 78.3%, D 73.2%.  73W/10A.  Camberville, Medford, Arlington, Watertown.  More or less urban, and college-clogged.  Super-safe D.

DISTRICT 13: ROUTE 128 CORRIDOR.  Pop 314,065.  O 61.5%, D 51.0%.  More suburban than 12, but like it entirely within Middlesex, and generally high-tech and socially liberal.  Lexington and Concord are here.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 14: NEWTON-BROOKLINE AND SOUTH.  Pop 311,204.  O 67.0%, D 57.8%.  This is kind of the "leftovers" district, as it were, centered on Newton and Brookline and then taking in some of the near-southern suburbs of Boston, down to the heavily Jewish town of Sharon.  The most socially liberal of the "southern" districts, which is I guess its unifying factor.  Wellesley would be a better fit here than 14, but I couldn't get the population math to work out before giving up.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 15: BOSTON NORTH.  Pop 313,873. O 73.0%, D 62.3%.  68W/13H/12A.  Splits Bunker Hill with 11, and takes in Winthrop as well (an earlier draft split Winthrop instead, but this lowers the  deviations for 11, 15, and 16).  Confusingly, it contains Southie.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 16:  BOSTON SOUTH.  Pop 313,306.  O 83.7%, D 79.6%.  35W/37B/17H.  Roxbury, Dorchester, etc.  Black VAP majority, and I suspect the only district in all of New England where whites aren't the largest ethnic group (though I have yet to see what's possible around Hartford).  I don't know if it technically counts as a VRA district or not, but it seems sporting to make it anyway.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 17: QUINCY-BRAINTREE.  Pop 309,789.  O 56.9%, D 47.2%.  78W/10A.  The inner areas of the South Shore, mostly Norfolk but a couple towns in Plymouth.  Basically, Stephen Lynch territory.  Lean D.

And closeup on southern Massachusetts.



DISTRICT 18: SOUTH SHORE-PLYMOUTH.  Pop 311,213.  O 49.2%, D 36.0%.  I tried my damndest to create an honest-to-god McCain district here, and still fell just short- 49.2 to 49.1.  Mostly in Plymouth, but a couple towns in Bristol, since 17 and 21 have to take bites out of the county, and Brockton really belongs in 19.  A Republican will probably win here more often than not, but Tossup anyway.

DISTRICT 19: BROCKTON-TAUNTON-ATTLEBORO.  Pop 309,302.  O 58.2%, D 43.1%. 76W/10B.  This Bristol County-based district takes in Brockton (for CoI) and Plainville (for population) as well, to create a district centered on those older industrial towns.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 20: NEW BEDFORD-FALL RIVER.  Pop 312,393.  O 66.6%, D 56.7%.  Entirely within Bedford, the South Coast region.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 21: CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.  Pop 310,572.  O 57.0%, D 47.4%.  Barnstable, Nantucket, Dukes, and the towns of Plymouth and Carver to fill population.  An obvious district.  Lean D.

...

One district is black VAP plurality.

10 Safe D
8 Lean D (three of which are functionally safe, seeing as they're over 60% Obama)
3 Tossup
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2013, 03:05:24 PM »

I tried for a fairly clean Republican map and I think it came out pretty neatly:



It should normally be 12-3. The Republicans would need Alexander to be a team player and run in CD14 instead of CD12, otherwise, State Rep. Jim Fannin could win CD14.
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2013, 06:07:43 AM »

Idaho, with the Republican legislature being generous:



The blue (Boise and immediate suburbs) would have been won by Obama with 264 votes, but should be favorable to Idaho Democrats. They also could have an outside chance in the northern district (McCain 59.1%, Obama 38.3%). Incidentally, 5 districts is probably the minimum in Idaho where you can draw an Obama district without a hideous gerrymander.
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2013, 06:35:17 AM »

Idaho, with the Republican legislature being generous:



The blue (Boise and immediate suburbs) would have been won by Obama with 264 votes, but should be favorable to Idaho Democrats. They also could have an outside chance in the northern district (McCain 59.1%, Obama 38.3%). Incidentally, 5 districts is probably the minimum in Idaho where you can draw an Obama district without a hideous gerrymander.
Don't they have a commission?
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2013, 10:06:56 AM »

Yes, they do. In this case, probably the most reasonable map. Then again, one would think that not splitting the Boise Metro would be the more reasonable solution with two districts...
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Miles
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2013, 11:11:33 PM »

WV, only splitting one county:

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traininthedistance
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2013, 03:23:26 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2013, 03:23:15 AM by traininthedistance »

Given the shenanigans going on in Virginia, I decided to skip ahead and finish it next.  The goal, as in all of the maps I'm doing here, is a clean and fair map, but the techniques required to make one is very different here than in New England- first off, counties are much more important (as many areas are not part of incorporated towns), and second off there is the VRA to deal with.  While Virginia's 18% black population would theoretically be enough for 4 AA-majority seats, I was only able to make three of them without resorting to horrible gerrymandering.  Three of 26 is still better than one of 11, and a couple of the NoVA districts are under 50% white, as well.  A total of thirteen counties/independent cities are split, and the vast majority of those are unavoidable due to either being larger than a district, VRA concerns, or both.  Really, the splits of Spotsylvania and Roanoke are the only ones which aren't in these categories, and I'm not sure its possible to do better than that.

The whole state:



Closeup on Hampton Roads and the Richmond metro:



DISTRICT 1: EASTERN SHORE-VIRGINIA BEACH NORTH.  Pop 308,259.  O(bama) 51.5%, D(em) 47.6%.  67W/20B.  VA Beach is too large for a district, and the Eastern Shore only has a road connection to VA Beach.  Ergo, the best thing to do is split it north-south, with two districts mostly in Hampton Roads' largest (but not most central) city.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 2: PORTSMOUTH-INNER SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS.  Pop 308,744.  O 72.7%, D 67.3%.  39W/52B.  All of Portsmouth, and the blacker parts of Norfolk and Chesapeake = our first VRA district.  I'd talk about all the Naval stuff here, but it's just as true for all the surrounding districts.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 3: VIRGINIA BEACH-CHESAPEAKE SOUTH.  Pop 305,922. O 43.0%, D 41.3%.  70W/18B.  Self-explanatory.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 4: NORTH HAMPTON ROADS.  Pop 307,459.  O 57.8%, D 52.9%.  61W/27B.  The northern and whiter halves of Hampton and Norfolk, the middle of Newport News.  Basically, the more heavily urban areas that need to be outside of a VRA district.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 5: SOUTHSIDE EAST-INNER NORTH HAMPTON ROADS.  Pop 309,083.  O 64.3%, D 59.4%.  45W/50B.  Combining inner-city Newport News and Hampton with the Southside isn't great CoI, but it is by far the best way to get our second VRA district.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 6: TIDEWATER.  Pop 307,030.  O 44.0%, D 42.0%.  75W/17B.  The only split county here is Newport News, since it has to take the northern edge.  Takes in the northern reaches of Hampton Roads, Williamsburg, and the rural Tidewater.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: RICHMOND AND HENRICO EAST-PETERSBURG AREA.  Pop 305,963.  O 73.6%, D 67.5%.  36W/57B.  Richmond and Henrico are split with 8 to make our third and final black-majority district, and the Petersburg area is an obvious fit for this district.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 8: RICHMOND AND HENRICO WEST.  Pop 304,839.  O 57.3%, D 51.7%.  66W/21B.  The rest of Richmond, almost all of the rest of Henrico (a tiny bit is given to 10 for population, as much along community boundaries as I could).  This district has the highest deviation, at -2893; all the Richmond-area districts are underpopulated so that 7/8/9/10 can be a cohesive block of whole counties.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 9:  CHESTERFIELD/COLONIAL HEIGHTS.  Pop 306,669.  O 46.4%, D 41.8%.  67W/22B.  Almost all of Chesterfield, and Colonial Heights (it makes more sense IMO for the smaller indy cities to just be treated as part of the counties they're surrounded by).  Lean R.

DISTRICT 10: RICHMOND COUNTRYSIDE.  Pop 305,813.  O 37.1%, D 35.7%.  80W/15B.  Slivers of Henrico and Chesterfield, and then eight exurban and rural counties all of which are part of the Richmond metro area, Hanover being the largest.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 11: CHARLOTTESVILLE-LYNCHBURG.  Pop 308,223.  O 55.5%, D 52.7%.  74W/18B.  Charlottesville/Albemarle, the city of Lynchburg, and four counties in between.  Western VA was able to neatly subdivide into whole counties for the most part.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 12: DANVILLE-SOUTHSIDE WEST.  Pop 310,496.  O 44.0%, D 42.2%.  68W/29B.  Nine counties and Danville; largely rural, conservative, with a sizable black minority.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 13: SOUTHWEST-ALLEGHENY.  Pop 306,832.  O 36.6%, D 42.6%.  Eleven whole counties, Bristol, and Norton, not much to say here.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 14: SOUTHWEST-BLUE RIDGE.  Pop 306,832.  O 39.0%, D 41.7%.  Nine counties, Galax, and Martinsburg.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 15: ROANOKE-BLACKSBURG.  Pop 307,810.  O 50.0%, D 48.5%.  81W/11B.  Technically, you could avoid the split of Roanoke County here by giving Radford to 14 instead, but that would force multiple splits elsewhere, so better to do it here.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 16: SHENANDOAH SOUTH.  Pop 308,579.  O 36.9%, D 37.8%.  The rest of Roanoke, seven counties, Staunton and Waynsboro.  Bedford County is on the wrong side of the Blue Ridge Mountains, but even so I'm surprised I was able to get the Shenandoah Valley to work out as well as it did.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 17: SHENANDOAH NORTH.  Pop 309,805.  O 40.2%, D 36.4%.  Five counties, Winchester, Harrisonborg, blah blah blah.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 18: PIEDMONT.  Pop 309,012.  O 44.0%, D 40.9%.  81W/11B.  Rural and rural-ish areas north of Richmond/Charlottesville and south of Fake Virginia; seven whole counties and most of Spotsylvania.  Safe R.

And, finally, closeup on NoVA.  It's impossible to keep entirely to CDP boundaries, but as usual I tried to get close.



DISTRICT 19: FREDERICKSBURG-QUANTICO.  Pop 307,283.  O 50.3%, D 45.9%.  67W/19B.  Centered on Fredericksburg, Stafford, and the Quantico Marine Corps Reservation, it also take in a little bit of the Northern Neck (King George & Westmoreland), and parts of Spotsylvania and Prince William.  Most maps get stuck with an ugly duckling leftovers district, and this is that district.  Lean R.

DISTRICT 20: LOUDON. Pop 305,971.  O 53.9%, D 47.7%.  64W/12H/14A.  All of Loudon save the Dulles Airport district (for population).  The quintessential Tossup.

DISTRICT 21. MANASSAS-PRINCE WILLIAM. Pop 309,445.  O 60.6%, D 52.3%.  47W/20B/23H.  Manassas, Manassas Park, and most of Prince William, especially minority-heavy portions like Dale City.  One of two minority-majority districts I was able to make in NoVA.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 22: DULLES-CENTREVILLE-CHANTILLY.  Pop 306,706.  O 55.1%, D 48.9%.  59W/10H/21A.  The Dulles district of Loudon, and the further-out, more conservative portions of Fairfax and Prince William combine to create a district that still voted for Obama by over ten points.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 23: TYSON'S CORNERS-RESTON-FAIRFAX.  Pop 307,238.  O 60.5%, D 56.1%.  63W/12H/17A.  The City of Fairfax and surroundings, including the major employment center of Tyson's Corners.  This is probably what most people think of when they think of Fairfax County.   Safe D.

DISTRICT 24: ANNANDALE-SPRINGFIELD.  Pop 307,394. O 60.9%, D 56.1%.  49W/21H/19A.  There's probably a better name for this district, but I can't think of one.  It's the only one that's technically entirely within Fairfax County (though 23 functionally is as well), and the other minority-majority NoVA district.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 25: ALEXANDRIA-MOUNT VERNON.  Pop 309,405.  O 67.9%, D 63.7%.  55W/19B/16W.  Alexandria and Arlington are too big to be a district together, so I had to split them up.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 26: ARLINGTON-FALLS CHURCH-MCLEAN. Pop 306,883. O 67.8%, D 64.5%.  68W/12H/11A.  The one district here where CDP lines and voting districts lines up perfectly.  Safe D.

Final tally:  three AA-majority districts (2, 5, 7) and two more min-maj (21, 24).

Safe D: 8
Lean D: 3
Tossup: 4
Lean R: 2
Safe R: 9

Pretty perfect for one of our swingiest swing states, I think.
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« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2013, 11:12:38 PM »

Minnesota.




%
DISTRICT 1: NORTHWEST MINNESOTA: Lean D seat due to a strong D anchor in Bemidji. 50% Obama and 50.2% D average.
DISTRICT 2: NORTHEAST MINNESOTA-DULUTH: Safe D seat. This is the core of MN-08 and wouldn't have fallen even in 2008. 62.5% Obama/66.1% D.
DISTRICT 3: WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA: Pretty heavily leaning R seat, 53.7% both for McCain and R average.
DISTRICT 4: ST. CLOUD-ELK RIVER: Conservative areas around St. Cloud and the leadin to the exurbs creates a basically Safe R seat. 53.5% McCain/54.6% R.
DISTRICT 5: CHISAGO-ISANTI-ANOKA: Safe R exurban seat. 55.2% McCain/55.3% R. BTW this is the closest seat to where Bachmann lives that she could be elected in, though not guaranteed to win the primary. Cheesy
DISTRICT 6: SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA: Lean R seat, 51.9% McCain/53% R, but a surprisingly independent minded area.
DISTRICT 7: SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA-MANKATO: 51.5% Obama/52.9% D, definitely a Lean D seat due to a strong Dem anchor in my old home. Walz lives here and would be safe, he's popular in the whole district.
DISTRICT 8: SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA-ROCHESTER: Definitely Lean D now that Rochester has flipped, the surrounding areas are also D. 52.8% Obama/52.1% D
DISTRICT 9: WEST METRO-CARVER: Safe R exurban seat. 56.5% McCain/59.2% R
DISTRICT 10: DAKOTA SOUTH-GOODHUE: The county and direction at the beginning swapped to avoid confusion. 49.4% McCain/52.3% R. Pretty much safe R with the type of Republicans here though.
DISTRICT 11: DAKOTA NORTH-WASHINGTON SOUTH: 54.4% Obama/53% D, definitely a Lean D seat at worst.
DISTRICT 12: HENNEPIN WEST: Obama won this 49.4/49, but almost certainly would vote R, 53.2% R average. Paulsen doesn't live here, but this would be the best seat for him to run in.
DISTRICT 13: HENNEPIN SOUTH: Safe D seat thanks to the bit of south Minneapolis in it. That area is generally affluent and not too different from the surrounding areas, basically a dream latte liberal district. Paulsen lives here in Eden Prairie but would have no chance. 61.7% Obama/58.9% D
DISTRICT 14: MINNEAPOLIS: Duh. Safe D. 81.4% Obama by the way.
DISTRICT 15: HENNEPIN CENTRAL-NORTH: Strong D inner suburbs for the most part, 61.1% Obama/60.2% D, so safe D.
DISTRICT 16: RAMSEY NORTH: A not exactly hopeless district for the Republicans, but they shouldn't get their hopes up. 54% Obama/53.6% D.
DISTRICT 17: ST. PAUL: Also Duh. Contains the whole city, some inner suburbs and that sliver of Maplewood to the east. 74.4% Obama.

That means it's most likely 10D-7R.
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« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2013, 05:02:06 AM »

Iowa.



That turned out more difficult than I thought it would be, as I tried to keep the no county splitting rule except Polk (De Moines), which is considerably bigger than one district, while keeping deviation within 1%.

DISTRICT 1: NORTHEAST IOWA: 58% Obama, 40.4% McCain. Probably Lean D. Obama's margin in 2012 was considerably narrowe (11%)

DISTRICT 2: DAVENPORT-MUSCATINE: 56.7% Obama, 41.8% McCain. About as Safe D as the two current eastern districts. Unlike the first, didn't change much in 2012.

DISTRICT 3: SOUTHERN IOWA: 50.7% Obama, 47.2% McCain. Should be a toss-up district. Still won in 2012 by Obama, though only by a narrow plurality.

DISTRICT 4: NORTH CENTRAL IOWA: 56.3% Obama, 42.1 McCain. Lean D, considering how the 2012 Obama victory was only about 7%.

DISTRICT 5: CEDAR RAPIDS: Name is due to Linn county being about 70% of the district. 57.3% Obama, 41.2% McCain. Lean D, though probably safe in practice. Margin narrowed quite a bit (11%) in 2012.

DISTRICT 6: IOWA CITY-MARSHALLTOWN: 58.7% Obama, 39.5% McCain. The reduced 2012 margin is still higher than that of the two eastern districts. Safe D.

DISTRICT 7: DES MOINES: 60.5% Obama, 37.7% McCain . Also the least white district (only 80.4% of the VAP). Safe D.

DISTRICT 8: DES MOINES SUBURBS: 50.3% Obama, 47.8% McCain. May have gone for Romney in 2012. Should be Lean R for Iowa Republicans.

DISTRICT 9: SOUTHWEST IOWA: 47.6% Obama,  50.8% McCain. Lean R. 2012 Margin was about 7%.

DISTRICT 10: NORTHWEST IOWA: 42.2% Obama, 56.3% McCain. Safe R.

So it should be usually 6D-4R, with an occasional 7D-3R.



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Knives
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« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2013, 08:21:59 AM »

What programs do you use to make these?
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GMantis
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« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2013, 08:29:05 AM »

What programs do you use to make these?
This one:
http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx
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muon2
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« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2013, 08:57:30 AM »

Iowa.



That turned out more difficult than I thought it would be, as I tried to keep the no county splitting rule except Polk (De Moines), which is considerably bigger than one district, while keeping deviation within 1%.

DISTRICT 1: NORTHEAST IOWA: 58% Obama, 40.4% McCain. Probably Lean D. Obama's margin in 2012 was considerably narrowe (11%)

DISTRICT 2: DAVENPORT-MUSCATINE: 56.7% Obama, 41.8% McCain. About as Safe D as the two current eastern districts. Unlike the first, didn't change much in 2012.

DISTRICT 3: SOUTHERN IOWA: 50.7% Obama, 47.2% McCain. Should be a toss-up district. Still won in 2012 by Obama, though only by a narrow plurality.

DISTRICT 4: NORTH CENTRAL IOWA: 56.3% Obama, 42.1 McCain. Lean D, considering how the 2012 Obama victory was only about 7%.

DISTRICT 5: CEDAR RAPIDS: Name is due to Linn county being about 70% of the district. 57.3% Obama, 41.2% McCain. Lean D, though probably safe in practice. Margin narrowed quite a bit (11%) in 2012.

DISTRICT 6: IOWA CITY-MARSHALLTOWN: 58.7% Obama, 39.5% McCain. The reduced 2012 margin is still higher than that of the two eastern districts. Safe D.

DISTRICT 7: DES MOINES: 60.5% Obama, 37.7% McCain . Also the least white district (only 80.4% of the VAP). Safe D.

DISTRICT 8: DES MOINES SUBURBS: 50.3% Obama, 47.8% McCain. May have gone for Romney in 2012. Should be Lean R for Iowa Republicans.

DISTRICT 9: SOUTHWEST IOWA: 47.6% Obama,  50.8% McCain. Lean R. 2012 Margin was about 7%.

DISTRICT 10: NORTHWEST IOWA: 42.2% Obama, 56.3% McCain. Safe R.

So it should be usually 6D-4R, with an occasional 7D-3R.


IA would not like that map. One of their important rules involves minimizing the east-west to north-south differences in the districts. Your district 3 on the south, and to a lesser degree district 5 through Cedar Rapids would create large differences in dimensions. You could make a better district 3 by linking Keokuk to Iowa City.
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