The 1,000 Districts Series

[jimrtex]

Iowa.



That turned out more difficult than I thought it would be, as I tried to keep the no county splitting rule except Polk (De Moines), which is considerably bigger than one district, while keeping deviation within 1%.

IA would not like that map. One of their important rules involves minimizing the east-west to north-south differences in the districts. Your district 3 on the south, and to a lesser degree district 5 through Cedar Rapids would create large differences in dimensions. You could make a better district 3 by linking Keokuk to Iowa City.

Don't the original townships still exist in Des Moines?  Would they use that as (part of the split line in Polk)

[Benj]

I tried for a fairly clean Republican map and I think it came out pretty neatly:



It should normally be 12-3. The Republicans would need Alexander to be a team player and run in CD14 instead of CD12, otherwise, State Rep. Jim Fannin could win CD14.

3/15 is a pretty bad VRA ratio for a state that's about 1/3 black. I think they'd have to draw a Shreveport-to-Alexandria black majority seat, too, which is easy and neat (though not very respectful of county lines).

[GMantis]

IA would not like that map. One of their important rules involves minimizing the east-west to north-south differences in the districts. Your district 3 on the south, and to a lesser degree district 5 through Cedar Rapids would create large differences in dimensions. You could make a better district 3 by linking Keokuk to Iowa City.

I had heard about the rule but I was concentrating more about the rule about no county splits. As a result there is little flexibility in the east, where there are a few very large counties, which all have to be in separate districts (you can't place almost any significant county together with Linn or Scott with Johnson, for example) and this seems to lead these elongated districts. Your suggestion may avoid district 3, but there will probably still have to be a elongated Lynn based district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

South Dakota



DISTRICT 1: SIOUX FALLS-SOUTHEAST: 50.2% McCain, probably around 52-53% Romney. Swing district most likely.
DISTRICT 2: EAST-CENTRAL: 51.5% McCain, though the swing to Romney was no doubt bigger than in the first, probably around 55% Romney. Usually R, might be a bit more swingy for a more moderate Democrat than the first though.
DISTRICT 3: RAPID CITY-WEST: Safe R seat, 58% McCain, over 60% Romney no doubt, though 15.5% Native VAP.

[muon2]

IA would not like that map. One of their important rules involves minimizing the east-west to north-south differences in the districts. Your district 3 on the south, and to a lesser degree district 5 through Cedar Rapids would create large differences in dimensions. You could make a better district 3 by linking Keokuk to Iowa City.

I had heard about the rule but I was concentrating more about the rule about no county splits. As a result there is little flexibility in the east, where there are a few very large counties, which all have to be in separate districts (you can't place almost any significant county together with Linn or Scott with Johnson, for example) and this seems to lead these elongated districts. Your suggestion may avoid district 3, but there will probably still have to be a elongated Lynn based district.

Using a maximum 1% deviation and whole counties I would use this:



The SW dist 6 is still more elongated than I would like, but most of the others have reasonable N-S to E-W deviations.

[Miles]

3/15 is a pretty bad VRA ratio for a state that's about 1/3 black. I think they'd have to draw a Shreveport-to-Alexandria black majority seat, too, which is easy and neat (though not very respectful of county lines).

3/15 is still better than 1/6.

This is what a 4th seat would look like; I did a 52.5% BVAP Shreveport-Monroe district.

[Miles]

3/15 is a pretty bad VRA ratio for a state that's about 1/3 black. I think they'd have to draw a Shreveport-to-Alexandria black majority seat, too, which is easy and neat (though not very respectful of county lines).

3/15 is still better than 1/6.

This is what a 4th seat would look like; I did a 52.5% BVAP Shreveport-Monroe district.

Actually, I like Shreveport-Alexandria more.

[TJ in Oregon]

Ohio:


37 Seats, 4 VRA. Starting with areas I didn't do a close-up shot for:

Northwest:
DISTRICT 9 (Cyan): NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. Pop 311,748. O 50.7% This set of counties makes a community of interest nicely except for Wyandot County, but it needed more people from somewhere. As I’d like it to be, my hometown is in a pure tossup seat. Tossup.
DISTRICT 15 (Orange): TOLEDO. Pop 312,059. O 72.7% I was hoping to get all of Toledo in here but I had to leave out three precincts for population equity (or split off the east end of Lucas County). Safe D.
DISTRICT 16 (Lime Green): TOLEDO SUBURBS-BOWLING GREEN. Pop 311,496. O 49.8% Despite this narrowly being an Obama district, I think the GOP has a slight edge here. Lean R.
DISTRICT 27 (Dark Green): LIMA-FINDLAY-MARION. Pop 312,257. O 40.0% A collection of smaller cities that actually have some Democrats in them, but not nearly enough to be close. Safe R.
DISTRICT 29 (Gray): NORTHWEST OHIO. Pop 311,896. O 34.6% The rural parts of the northwest stretching down to the Upper Miami Valley. It’s only the second most Republican seat in the state overall due to some Democrats in the northern parts of the seat. Safe R.

Southeast Ohio:
DISTRICT 30 (Navy): STEUBENVILLE-ST. CLAIRSVILLE-NEW PHILADELPHIA. Pop 312,213. O 48.9% The eastern end of the Ohio valley, full of blue-collar, old school Democrats, the type of place Snowstalker dreams of. However, this is based on ’08 numbers and this part of the state is trending Republican. Tossup.
DISTRICT 31 (Butter Yellow): MARIETTA-ATHENS. Pop 312,235. O 46.3% The two cities in the name tell it all: each is the base of their respective party in the area. This one has more Republican rural areas than district 30 though. Lean R.
DISTRICT 32 (Red-Orange): PORTSMOUTH-CHILLICOTHE. Pop 311,635. O 41.6% Other than the two cities listed, this has the most blood-red territory in rural southern Ohio. Safe R.

Dayton:
DISTRICT 22 (Brown): XENIA-BEAVERCREEK. Pop 311,536. O 38.6% The collection of exurban counties east of Dayton. Safe R.
DISTRICT 23 (Aqua): SPRINGFIELD-TROY. Pop 311,927. O 40.0% Despite having the little Dem sink of Springfield, nothing else here is close to marginal. Safe R.
DISTRICT 24 (Purple): DAYTON. Pop 312,339. O 62.0% This is the one place where having smaller seats clearly benefits the Democrats in Ohio. You can only draw a Dayton without a Democratic seat with some heavy gerrymandering with districts this size. With larger seats you need to heavily gerrymander it to get a Democratic seat.
DISTRICT 25 (Red): KETTERING-CIRCLEVILLE. Pop 312,189. O 38.4% The heavily Republican Dayton suburbs and leftover rural areas to the west.

[TJ in Oregon]

Northeast Ohio:
DISTRICT 1 (Blue): CLEVELAND CENTRAL. Pop 312,496. O 86.5% 53.9% VAP Black. Stretches from the near west side along the lake to Euclid. All municipalities are kept whole except Cleveland itself. Safe D.
DISTRICT 2 (Green): CLEVELAND EAST. Pop 311,747. O 80.4% 50.1% VAP Black. The other part of the east side of Cleveland. The arrangement between this and district 1 are slightly less representative of communities of interest than I’d like but this is the best arrangement I’ve been able to find that allows both to be VRA seats. Only Cleveland and Mayfield Heights are split. Safe D.
DISTRICT 3 (Purple): CLEVELAND WEST. Pop 311,826. O 64.0% This ended up a nice and compact combination of the rest of the City of Cleveland and the west side’s more working class suburbs. This is the Dennis Kucinich comeback seat. Safe D.
DISTRICT 4 (Red): CLEVELAND WESTERN SUBURBS. Pop 311,574. O 49.1% The more upscale suburbs making up the western remnant of the county and the Cuyahoga Valley. McCain won this by about a thousand votes. Lean R.
DISTRICT 5 (Gold): MENTOR-CHARDON. Pop 312,074. O 48.1% Lake, the leftovers in Cuyahoga trapped by the VRA seats and northern Geauga. Here’s a seat that looks sort of close by the numbers but I’d have a hard time seeing the Democrats actually winning here. Lean R.
DISTRICT 6 (Teal): WARREN -ASHTABULA. Pop 311,809. O 58.8% These two counties actually came within 12 people of the right size for a seat so it’d be hard not to draw it. Plus Ashtabula doesn’t really fit anywhere. This one is the epitome of rust belt. Safe D.
DISTRICT 7 (Gray): RAVENNA -ALLIANCE. Pop 311,693. O 49.96% The leftovers from the surrounding metro areas. It has a few Democratic nodes and a few Republican nodes with moderate rural areas. Tossup.
DISTRICT 8 (Cornflower Blue): LORAIN. Pop 311,043. O 57.9% Here’s another one that basically draws itself: Lorain County plus the rest of Vermillion. Safe D.
DISTRICT 10 (Violet): CANTON. Pop 312, 743. O 52.3% Stark County was a little too large for one seat all to itself so I decided Alliance made the most sense to split off because it isn’t as close to the population center of Canton. The random patch of District 7 is a fluke the DRA. Tossup.
DISTRICT 11 (Yellow-Green): YOUNGSTOWN. Pop 312, 311. O 58.8% Most of Mahoning and all of Columbiana Counties with some of Mahoning split off for population reasons. Columbiana makes it somewhat less Democratic but not enough to be close. Safe D.
DISTRICT 12 (Dark Blue): AKRON. Pop 311,844. O 65.8% 19.4% VAP Black The city of Akron and its inner ring suburbs. Given the horrid borders some of these cities have, this actually turned out quite nicely. Safe D.
DISTRICT 13 (Maroon): AKRON SUBURBS. Pop 312,226. O 47.9% The rest of Summit County (other than the sliver in district 7) plus Wadsworth and Brunswick. Lean R.
DISTRICT 14 (Tan): MEDINA-MANSFIELD. Pop 311,699. O 43.4% I’m not thrilled with the arm into Mansfield but it needed more population and at least the city doesn’t end up split. Politically it would affect neither seat. Safe R.

[TJ in Oregon]

Central Ohio:
DISTRICT 17 (Navy): COLUMBUS EAST. Pop 311,504. O 79.1% 50.2% VAP Black. Columbus has a large enough black population for a compact VRA seat with districts of this size. Safe D.
DISTRICT 18 (Yellow): COLUMBUS WEST. Pop 311,240. O 64.5% The rest of the inner-city of Columbus including Ohio State. Safe D.
DISTRICT 19 (Brown): DUBLIN-UPPER ARLINGTON. Pop 311,466. O 47.1% Columbus western suburbs. This one is solidly Republican at the moment but trending toward the Democrats. Still, if Stivers managed to win what was basically a combination of this and district 18 3 years ago, this would probably not be close. Lean R.
DISTRICT 20 (Lime Green): DELAWARE. Pop 311,538. O 44.0% The very wealthy northern Columbus suburbs and Delaware County. Safe R.
DISTRICT 21 (Brown): LANCASTER-PICKERINGTON. Pop 310,823. O 43.4% The rest of the Columbus exurbs. Safe R.
DISTRICT 26 (Cadet Blue): ZANESVILLE-NEWARK. Pop 311,681. O 44.2% This is sort of ugly looking but the population numbers came out well for this arrangement. It dips into the rural Southeast some but not much into the ancestrally Democratic areas.
DISTRICT 28 (Crimson): MT. VERNON. Pop 311,111. O 37.5% Incredibly, I think Mt. Vernon may be the largest city in this sprawling rural area. This is about as Republican a seat you can draw outside of west-central Ohio or the Cincinnati suburbs. Safe R.

[TJ in Oregon]

Cincinnati:
DISTRICT 33 (Royal Blue): LEBANNON-BATAVIA. Pop 311,205. O 31.7% Exurban Cincinnati in Warren and Clermont Counties. This is the most heavily Republican seat in the state. Safe R.
DISTRICT 34 (Orange): CINCINNATI EAST. Pop 311,577. O 40.5% The suburban areas are overwhelmingly Republican but this does have some working-class white parts of Cincinnati that do vote for Democrats. Safe R.
DISTRICT 35 (Violet): HAMILTON-MIDDLETOWN. Pop 312,245. O 38.6% Exurban Cincinnati in Butler County. This is the home of John Boehner. Safe R.
DISTRICT 36 (Green): CINCINNATI WEST. Pop 312,043. O 34.9% Western Cincinnati suburbs and a few white pockets on the west side of the city itself. Of all the inner suburbs, the western ones are the most conservative. Safe R.
DISTRICT 37 (Black): CINCINNATI. Pop 311,825. O 79.5% 50.5% VAP Black. Cincinnati also has enough African Americans for a VRA seat. Unfortunately it does require that hideous arm into Forest Park to the north to make it to 50%. Safe D.

[traininthedistance]

Pennsylvania in 41 districts.  This will be in two parts.

PA, like NJ, is entirely made up of incorporated municipalities, but the counties also mean something.  However, also like NJ, you have quite a few large counties which necessitate splits, so county lines were something I had to take more as a suggestion than as an iron-clad rule.  There are three AA-majority districts, which may not be the theoretical maximum (I was not willing to get very ugly in my search to see what was possible) but is, again, better than 1 out of 18.  

Only two cities are split: Philly, obviously... and Bethlehem, which is itself split between two counties.  I ended up further subdividing the smaller portion of Bethlehem in Northampton.  I suppose there may be a couple other towns which straddle county lines that were broken along said county lines, but none come to mind immediately.  Within Philly, I tried to hew exactly to ward boundaries, but gave up and had to split one ward.

I'm not very happy with the northeastern quarter of the state, and may try different things up there at some point.

The state as a whole:  



DISTRICT 1: ERIE.  Pop 309,166.  O(bama) 58.0%, D(em) 53.7%.  All of Erie, and enough of Crawford for population.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 2: MAHONING VALLEY.  Pop 309,444.  O 47.3%, D 49.4%.  Centered on Lawrence (New Castle) and Mercer (Sharon) Counties, it also takes in most of Crawford and part of Beaver.  While on the fringe of both the Erie and Pittsburgh areas, the real center of gravity in this district is just across the state line- Youngstown, Ohio.  Lean R.

SWPA zoom:



DISTRICT 3: SOUTH MONOGAHELA.  Pop 310,042.  O 51.0%, D 58.2%.  The most SWPA of all SWPA districts, it's all of Fayette and Greene, most of Washington, and the old river town of Monessen in Westmoreland County.  Ancestrally super-Dem, but for how long?  Lean D.

DISTRICT 4: WESTMORELAND.  Pop 308,443. O 39.2%, D 45.0%.  Almost all of Westmoreland County; save the small bites taken out for 3 and 11.  By now, probably Safe R.

DISTRICT 5: NORTH MONOGAHELA-PENN HILLS.  Pop 310,881.  O 59.3%, D 62.9%.  78W/18B.  The westernmost slice of Allegheny County; centered on the Monogahela up to towns west of Pittsburgh and south of the Allegheny like Penn Hills and Plum.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 6:  METRO PITTSBURGH-EAST AND SOUTH HILLS.  Pop 309,558.  O 51.0%, D 54.2%.  Mostly the inner-ring Pittsburgh suburbs not in the Mon Valley; Ross and Bethel Park are the largest towns here, of which there are many.  I thought Lean D for a moment, but given trends in SWPA it's probably Tossup.

DISTRICT 7: PITTSBURGH CITY.  Pop 309,107.  O 75.5%, D 76.4%.  69W/23B.  Just Pittsburgh!  Well, and tiny Mt. Oliver, which is surrounded.  Along with 5 and 6, one of three districts entirely within Allegheny (FWIW, the county is too large for four).  A convenient Safe D pack for the natural Pub gerrymander that is PA.

DISTRICT 8: AIRPORT-BEAVER-NORTH WASHINGTON.  Pop 310,256.  O 44.6%, D 49.4%.  Most of Beaver, the rest of Washington, and the further out portions of the West and South Hills in Allegheny, including the airport.  Really, just the exurban counterpart to 6; splitting them south/west rather than inner/outer would have made for easier names, but either a much uglier Washington County tentacle or another county cut.  Probably still Lean R, for now.

DISTRICT 9: NORTH ALLEGHENY-SOUTH BEAVER.  Pop 310,213.  O 40.8%, D 42.5%.  Pretty self-explanatory.  These numbers probably ought to indicate a safe Republican seat, but this also was Jason Altmire's turf.  Eh, was.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 10: NORTH BUTLER-OIL-ALLEGHENY FOREST.  Pop 307,456.  O 38.0%, D 40.4%.  The rest of Butler, the northern two-thirds of Armstrong, and all of five rural counties  (Warren, Forest, Venango, Clarion, Jefferson).  Most of Allegheny National Forest is here, along with the birthplace of the petroleum industry and the Marcellus Shale.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 11: JOHNSTOWN-INDIANA-CONEMAUGH.  Pop 308,054.  O 48.0%, D 53.1%.  All of Cambria and Indiana, filling out the rest of Armstrong and Westmoreland along the Conemaugh and Allegheny, and a tiny bit of Somerset for population.  As is the case with the other Western PA districts dominated by smaller old Rust Belt towns (2, 3, 8 in particular) a lot of ancestral Dem strength, but may not be a Tossup for long.

DISTRICT 12: NITTANY.  Pop 311,901.  O 50.9%, D 50.8%.  Five whole counties (Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Cameron, Elk).  A nice rectangular shape.  State College and some forests.  Clearly the best-looking district around.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 13: ALTOONA-SOUTHERN ALLEGHENIES.  Pop 307,041.  O 34.1%, D 36.6%.  The rest of Somerset (most of it) and four whole counties (Somerset, Bedford, Blair, Huntingdon).  This very rural, very red district seals off the 12-district whole county group that is Western PA.  Also the highest deviation on the map, at -2,773 (which is a result of the whole-county grouping).  Safe R.

DISTRICT 14: WILLIAMSPORT-NORTHERN.  Pop 310,076.  O 37.5%, D 35.8%.  Another whole-county grouping (seven of them) in the deepest reaches of the T, so I had to make it, but a good deal uglier than 12.  Recombining this with 24 to have a northern and southern district, rather than eastern and western, might actually be worth it despite the additional county cut.  Safe R.

Closeup on South-Central PA.  I was able to get one more whole-county grouping out of districts 15 through 19.



DISTRICT 15: CARLISLE-WEST SUSQUEHANNA.  Pop 312,232. O 39.8%, D 36.7%.  Three rural ridge-and-valley counties (Juniata, Mifflin, and Perry), and the bulk of Cumberland, including Carlisle and Harrisburg suburbs along the Susquehanna.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 16: YORK COUNTRYSIDE.  Pop 311,580.  O 39.2%, D 35.7%.  The bulk of York County, with a notch given to 19 for population and the urban areas cut out for 17.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 17: URBAN LANCASTER-YORK.  Pop 311,568.  O 55.6%, D 48.5%.  76W/13H.  The cities of Lancaster and York, connected by their inner suburbs and the Lincoln Highway.  Yes, Virginia, that is a 55% Obama district mostly in Lancaster County, and yes it makes all the sense in the world to draw.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 18: LANCASTER COUNTRYSIDE.  Pop 312,297.  O 35.0%, D 29.2%.  The rest of Lancaster.  I half want to give this district the joking name of "Amish Paradise".  Safe R.

DISTRICT 19: FOUR SCORE-SEVEN YEARS AGO.  Pop 310,458.  O 36.0%, D 34.2%.  All of Franklin and Adams, and the leftover bits of Cumberland and York.  Chambersburg is the largest town here, but most people will recognize Gettysburg instead.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 20: HARRISBURG-LEBANON.  Pop 310,673.  O 53.3%, D 48.1%.  75W/14B.  All of Dauphin, and an arm out to Lebanon in its namesake county.  A little ugly, but I tried many iterations here and in the northeast and Lebanon seemed to be the best partner to a Harrisburg district.  Tossup.

[Miles]

Wouldn't 8 and 11 be pretty favorable to Altmire and Critz though? I'd put them in the D column.

[Miles]

MT:



There wasn't pre-loaded election data in DRA, so I crunched the numbers myself.

CD1:
P- 60.5/36.7 Romney
S- 48.2/45.0 Rehberg
G- 51.8/44.6 Hill

CD2
P- 48.8/48.1 Romney
S- 53.9/40.0 Tester
G- 53.7/42.5 Bullock

CD3
P- 57.5/39.7 Romney
S- 46.9/46.3 Rehberg
G- 48.3/47.9 Hill

Basically, CD1 would be Safe R, CD2 would be Likely/Safe D and CD3 would be swingy, but tilting more R than the state.

[Gass3268]

MT:



There wasn't pre-loaded election data in DRA, so I crunched the numbers myself.

CD1:
P- 60.5/36.7 Romney
S- 48.2/45.0 Rehberg
G- 51.8/44.6 Hill

CD2
P- 48.8/48.1 Romney
S- 53.9/40.0 Tester
G- 53.7/42.5 Bullock

CD3
P- 57.5/39.7 Romney
S- 46.9/46.3 Rehberg
G- 48.3/47.9 Hill

Basically, CD1 would be Safe R, CD2 would be Likely/Safe D and CD3 would be swingy, but tilting more R than the state.

The Democratic coalition in CD2 would be college students, miners and sikers, lol!

[traininthedistance]

Northeastern PA (Scranton-Wilkes Barre, Lehigh Valley, Poconos)



DISTRICT 21: SCRANTON-NORTHEAST.  Pop 310,019.  O 57.3%, D 54.9%.  All of Lackawanna (Scranton) and Wayne; parts of Susquehanna and Pike.  I'm not a huge fan of the two county splits, or how Scranton gets thrown in with a lot of rural area, but I also wanted a Poconos district and an all-Luzerne district, and this was what was left.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 22: POCONOS.  Pop 310,006.  O 54.1%, D 51.8%.  Centered on Monroe and Carbon, takes the rest of Pike and part of Schuylkill.  There used to be coal, now there's tourism.  Tossup; Monroe is trending D but the rest isn't.

DISTRICT 23: LUZERNE.  Pop 309,394.  O 54.2%, D 55.9%.  Luzerne is large enough for its own district, so it gets one.  The decision of "what to chop" for population was necessitated by 24 needing a bridge.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 24: ANTHRACITE-ENDLESS MOUNTAINS.  Pop 310,305.  O 43.0%, D 41.1%.  This is basically two distinct areas which are too small for their own district, strung together by the remainder of Luzerne.  To the south, there's the old coal counties of Northumberland, Montour, and Columbia.  To the north, you have the rest of the Northern Tier (most is in 14): Bradford, Wyoming, most of Susquehanna.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 25: SCHUYLKILLL-BLUE MOUNTAIN.  Pop 308,618.  O 41.9%, D 39.9%.  Roughly a rectangle around the Schuylkill River and Blue Mountain, this district is most of Schuylkill, the heavily agricultural and/or Appalachian portions of Lebanon and Berks, and a couple towns in Lehigh so that the Lehigh Valley can have two full districts otherwise.  Pottstown is the largest city here, for what that's worth.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 26: NORTHAMPTON.  Pop 307,754.  O 55.8%, D 55.2%.  All of Northampton, and a sliver of Bethlehem's Lehigh portion to fill population.  Lean D in a vacuum, though presumably this district would keep sending Charlie Dent to congress.

DISTRICT 27: LEHIGH.  Pop 310,263.  O 58.0%, D 55.2%.  75W/16H.  Entirely within Lehigh, Allentown is obviously the anchor.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 28: GREATER READING.  Pop 308,299.  O 57.2%, D 53.6%.  77W/17H.  Entirely within Berks.  Lean D.

And finally, closeup on the Delaware Valley.



DISTRICT 29: LOWER BUCKS.  Pop 312,067.  O 58.1%, D 57.6%.  Bucks almost perfectly fits into two districts, and upper/lower is the obvious way to divide.  Levittown is here, and it's still almost as white as Arthur Levitt dreamed it would stay forever.  Lean D pretty strongly.

DISTRICT 30: UPPER BUCKS.  Pop 310,975.  O 49.7%, D 46.8%.  Doylestown, Quakertown, rich exurbs, yadda yadda.  I think there might be a few farms left.  Obama did barely win this in '08 but it's a pretty strong Lean R anyway.

DISTRICT 31: MONTGOMERY EAST-ABINGTON-LANSDALE.  Pop 312,295.  O 61.3%, D 57.9%.  Abington is the largest town in the district (and second-largest in the county), Lansdale is the county seat.  Thoroughly suburban, and Safe D.

DISTRICT 32:  MONTGOMERY CENTRAL-NORRISTOWN-PERKIOMEN.  Pop 310,577.  O 56.7%, D 52.5%.  This one goes further into the exurbs, running from Conshy, Plymouth Meeting, and Norristown up the Schuylkill and Perkiomen Creek to hit MontCo's northernmost reaches.  It also takes a tiny sliver of Bucks, since those districts are overpopulated and Telford crosses the county line anyway.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 33: POTTSTOWN-CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY WEST.  Pop 310,351.  O 53.6%, D 48.9%.  A couple towns in Berks for population and the westernmost edge of Montgomery, but this is mostly a Chester County district that encapsulates the fringes of the metro.  Lean R, because we all know that Jim Gerlach has won here even in a bad year.

DISTRICT 34: MAIN LINE.  Pop 309,832.  O 58.5%, D 54.1%.  The Main Line is enough of its own thing that it's worth another county slice to have its own district.  The core is Lancaster Ave and the SEPTA line from Lower Merion in Montgomery to Downingtown in Chester, and then surrounding and intermediate towns (including a bit of Delaware) are taken in.  Famously old money, but also quite socially progressive these days.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 35: WEST CHESTER-KENNETT SQUARE-WEST DELCO.  Pop 308,746.  O 59.0%, D 54.6%.  77W/14B.  The rest of Chester (mostly the inner portions not part of the Main Line) and the western half of Delco, mostly to the west of Crum Creek but I had to add Swarthmore for population.  Should be Lean D but you never know with the GOP's historic downballot strength here.

DISTRICT 36: INNER DELCO.  Pop 308,346. O 59.3%, D 57.0%.  75W/16B.  Upper Darby is the largest town in this district which is mostly prewar suburbia (and that's not something you can make very often!).  Lean D much like the last one.

DISTRICT 37: WEST PHILLY.  Pop 309,050.  O 92.0%, D 90.7%.  23W/66B.  66 percent black is rather more packed than I'd like, but it's also hard to argue with a boundary that is almost perfect West Philly, with just a couple Delco towns (the AA-majority Yeadon and Colwyn, the airport-majority Tinicum) and one South Philly ward added on.  And it doesn't prevent me from making two more VRA districts.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 38: PHILLY RIVERFRONT AND NEAR NORTHEAST.  Pop 308,541.  O 78.6%, D 79.6%.  49.6W/15B/26H.  This district is more defined by what it is not- i.e. neither AA-majority nor Far Northeast.  It takes in the eastern,  whiter half of South Philly, and runs up the Delaware through Center City, NoLibs, up to Frankford.  It also tries to get as much of the Hispanic community in North Philly as it can.  (In fact, my desire to do this, and do it in a district separate from the black districts, was one of the main reasons I settled on only three AA districts rather than four.)  The one split ward is between this and 39- most of Ward 5 (Center City east) is here, but Chinatown is lopped off for population.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 39:  MID-PHILLY.  Pop 308,326.  O 93.4%, D 91.7%.  29W/54B.  Hard to name this one concisely.  It runs from Point Breeze through Center City West up to (most of) North Philly, and has some of the city's richest (Rittenhouse Square) and poorest neighborhoods.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 40:  NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH PHILLY.  Pop 308,495.  O 88.5%, D 86.7%. 31W/53B.  The Northwest (Manayunk/Roxborough, Chestnut Hill, Germantown); the middle-class black neighborhood of Oak Lane, and some of the more diverse Northeast neighborhoods north of Roosevelt Boulevard.  Our final VRA district.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 41: FAR NORTHEAST.  Pop 309,674.  O 58.5%, D 61.3%.  73W/12B.  Self-explanatory.  Safe D.

...

Three AA-majority districts (37, 39, 40) and one more min-maj (38), all in Philly of course.

Safe D  8
Lean D  12
Tossup  6
Lean R  4
Safe R  11

This basically ended up being an inadvertent "gerrymander for competitiveness".  Which I think I'm okay with.

[traininthedistance]

Wouldn't 8 and 11 be pretty favorable to Altmire and Critz though? I'd put them in the D column.

I've been trying to not take incumbents or specific candidates into account too much (otherwise one of those Lehigh Valley districts would be Lean R for Dent).  But I think 8 would be sufficiently fertile ground for Tim Bishop as well (it has his home), and Altmire is out of poltics now.  Critz might have a better chance in 11, but again that whole area is trending pretty hard R and he no longer has the benefit of incumbency.

[traininthedistance]

Don't you mean Westmoreland County for District 4, not Washington?

Thanks, corrected.

[traininthedistance]

And now for something completely different.



Deviations are 56, no partisan figures given. 

DISTRICT 1: LAST FRONTIER.  Pop 354,341. 66W/20N(ative).  Fairbanks, Juneau, the Aleutians, North Slope, the Bush, basically everything that isn't Anchorage or Mat-Su.  Unfortunately, that's still less than half the state's population, so it has to encroach on Mat-Su, taking much of Palmer and the empty areas of that borough.  This is Alaska, so it's obviously not contiguous by road.  Almost all of the state's heavily Dem areas (primarily Juneau and the Bush) are here, so it's definitely winnable by the right Dem in the right year.  But it also has Fairbanks and enough of Mat-Su to probably keep it Lean R at the moment.

DISTRICT 2: ANCHORAGE-MAT-SU.  Pop 354,229.  Only 70% white, but no other group breaks ten percent.  No, you can't see Russia from here.  Safe R.

[Hatman 🍁]

It would be neat to see a map of Alaska where you try to divide it evenly by land area as well. You'd have to divide up Anchorage of course.

[traininthedistance]

It would be neat to see a map of Alaska where you try to divide it evenly by land area as well. You'd have to divide up Anchorage of course.

I bet the splitline method gets you close, seeing as it'll likely give you a straight north-south chop.  (This would, of course, be yet another illustration of just how horrible splitline redistricting actually is.)

[traininthedistance]

I just did Alaska, why not Hawaii?



DISTRICT 1: MAUI-MOLOKAI-LANAI-BIG ISLAND.  Pop 340,003.  76.3% Obama.  36W/37A/18O (Other- presumably some native Pacific Islanders are choosing this, and/or there are a lot of people with multiple races).  Hawaii and Maui counties (and the leper colony of Kalawao, if that even still counts); the four named islands plus smaller Kahoolawe.  Almost perfect, with a deviation of only 72 (unfortunately, large precinct sizes in Oahu make it hard to get the others as close).  This is the whitest district in the state, by the way.  Safe D.

All of the other three districts are Oahu-based.



DISTRICT 2: HONOLULU CITY.  Pop 339,552.  72.4% Obama. 19W/63A/12O.  As close to the CDP boundaries as I could get (there are no actual government functions in Hawaii below the county level).  Probably the most Asian district in the country.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 3: PEARL HARBOR-CENTRAL OAHU.  Pop 341,423.  18W/56A/15O.  Given the heavy military presence here, no surprise this is the state's most Republican district at a blistering 68.1% Obama.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 4: OUTER OAHU-KAUAI.  Pop 339,323.  70.2% Obama.  30W/42A/20O.  Mostly the areas separated from the "town" side of Oahu by the Wainae and Koolau; also the North Shore and the area east of Honolulu.  Then Kauai (island and county), Nihau, and all the tiny outlying atolls that stretch deep into the Pacific.  Safe D.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, there are A LOT of mixed race people in Hawaii. Asian-Pacific Islander mixes (like Dan Akaka) being the largest single group among them.

Oh, and the pure Pacific Islanders are lumped in with the Asians in the DRA... lol.

Very nice that Mau'i and Hawai'i counties are exactly the size for one district!

[minionofmidas]

It would be neat to see a map of Alaska where you try to divide it evenly by land area as well. You'd have to divide up Anchorage of course.

I bet the splitline method gets you close, seeing as it'll likely give you a straight north-south chop.  (This would, of course, be yet another illustration of just how horrible splitline redistricting actually is.)

You'd get a line from Bristol Bay eastnortheast through Anchorage.

[Benj]

DISTRICT 37: WEST PHILLY.  Pop 309,050.  O 92.0%, D 90.7%.  23W/66B.  66 percent black is rather more packed than I'd like, but it's also hard to argue with a boundary that is almost perfect West Philly, with just a couple Delco towns (the AA-majority Yeadon and Colwyn, the airport-majority Tinicum) and one South Philly ward added on.  And it doesn't prevent me from making two more VRA districts.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 38: PHILLY RIVERFRONT AND NEAR NORTHEAST.  Pop 308,541.  O 78.6%, D 79.6%.  49.6W/15B/26H.  This district is more defined by what it is not- i.e. neither AA-majority nor Far Northeast.  It takes in the eastern,  whiter half of South Philly, and runs up the Delaware through Center City, NoLibs, up to Frankford.  It also tries to get as much of the Hispanic community in North Philly as it can.  (In fact, my desire to do this, and do it in a district separate from the black districts, was one of the main reasons I settled on only three AA districts rather than four.)  The one split ward is between this and 39- most of Ward 5 (Center City east) is here, but Chinatown is lopped off for population.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 39:  MID-PHILLY.  Pop 308,326.  O 93.4%, D 91.7%.  29W/54B.  Hard to name this one concisely.  It runs from Point Breeze through Center City West up to (most of) North Philly, and has some of the city's richest (Rittenhouse Square) and poorest neighborhoods.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 40:  NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH PHILLY.  Pop 308,495.  O 88.5%, D 86.7%. 31W/53B.  The Northwest (Manayunk/Roxborough, Chestnut Hill, Germantown); the middle-class black neighborhood of Oak Lane, and some of the more diverse Northeast neighborhoods north of Roosevelt Boulevard.  Our final VRA district.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 41: FAR NORTHEAST.  Pop 309,674.  O 58.5%, D 61.3%.  73W/12B.  Self-explanatory.  Safe D.

...

Three AA-majority districts (37, 39, 40) and one more min-maj (38), all in Philly of course.

Safe D  8
Lean D  12
Tossup  6
Lean R  4
Safe R  11

This basically ended up being an inadvertent "gerrymander for competitiveness".  Which I think I'm okay with.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I suspect the Hispanic community in Philly would prefer to be put in a black-dominated district than in a white-dominated district (and that would allow you to unite the urban white vote into a single seat rather than splitting it).