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| | |-+  2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  Bush's Late Strategy
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Author Topic: Bush's Late Strategy  (Read 5483 times)
Akno21
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« on: February 13, 2005, 03:42:25 pm »
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Can anyone tell me why Bush spent a few days in the last week of the campaign in California and New Jersey?
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Erc
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2005, 04:33:00 pm »
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From what I can gather...

Bush was ahead in the polls heading into the final stretch, and thought he might have a shot at those states as the momentum was swinging irrevocably his way in the final days...or, at the very least, force Gore to spend some time there.

Remember, in 1996, California was only better for Clinton than the national average by 2.5%--Bush figured that if he was heading for a 51% victory or so he might have a solid chance there.

As for New Jersey...well, it's in the Philly TV market...and it used to be a Republican state until 1996.  Hey, my guess is as good as anyone else's.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2005, 06:42:08 pm »
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Bush was trying to send a message that the race was in the bag and he did not need to spend time in the battleground states and could go after big prizes that he did not need.

It was a bluff to try and convince liberal voters they could safely send a message by voting Nader since Gore was defeated already.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2005, 08:16:01 am »
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ATFFL is spot on.

On a silly side-note: on President Forever, whenever I have the Republican candidate beat he makes a wild stab at California to try and squeak out victory. And it has actually worked several times... :S
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2005, 01:11:23 pm »
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Bush was trying to send a message that the race was in the bag and he did not need to spend time in the battleground states and could go after big prizes that he did not need.

It was a bluff to try and convince liberal voters they could safely send a message by voting Nader since Gore was defeated already.

That's sort of how Vorlon described it a while ago.

I agree with both you and him in terms of strategy.
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MAS117
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2005, 08:28:29 pm »
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As per NJ, basically what some of us beleive is that Bush tryed to put NJ in play so that Kerry would spend more time there even though he knows Kerry would have won NJ. Therefore it gives Kerry less time in OH and FL and other swing states.
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MAS117
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2005, 11:10:10 pm »
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As per NJ, basically what some of us beleive is that Bush tryed to put NJ in play so that Kerry would spend more time there even though he knows Kerry would have won NJ. Therefore it gives Kerry less time in OH and FL and other swing states.

We're talking 2000, boss.

my bad
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Bo
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2010, 07:45:39 pm »
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Because he felt that he already had enough support to win and he wanted to show his bipartisanship by showing Democratic voters that he is camapigning in states he can't win just to listen to the people in those states.
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Derek
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« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2010, 07:49:20 pm »
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That turned out not to be a good idea for him. Look prior to 1992 New Jersey and California were both important battleground states and Bill Clinton didn't win CA by any ridiculous amounts. He barely won New Jersey in 1992. Rove and Bush may have been thinking on those terms. I pointed out on another forum for this site that 1992 looks to have been a realignment with certain states.

Vermont
Maine
New Jersey
Connecticut
Delaware
California
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia
Montana
Colorado

All of these states changed that year and haven't been the same since.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2010, 10:16:48 pm »
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Bush went to those states because he promised to visit them, thats the only reason he went.
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« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2010, 10:20:22 pm »
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Bush was arrogant.

Gore, on the other hand pulled an all nighter campaigning in the only state where he outspent Bush, Florida. Gore said that Florida would come down to 1 vote per precinct. Of course, even that estimate was too high.
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Bo
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« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2010, 10:32:42 pm »
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Bush was arrogant.

Gore, on the other hand pulled an all nighter campaigning in the only state where he outspent Bush, Florida. Gore said that Florida would come down to 1 vote per precinct. Of course, even that estimate was too high.

If Gore had asked Clinton to campaign in FL for the last several days, attacked Bush Jr. on his DUI story much more severely, and consistenly asked people if they were better off than there were eight years ago right before the election, Gore would ahve probably won Florida by several thousand (not hundred) votes, if not more.
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2010, 10:36:46 pm »
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Bush was arrogant.

Gore, on the other hand pulled an all nighter campaigning in the only state where he outspent Bush, Florida. Gore said that Florida would come down to 1 vote per precinct. Of course, even that estimate was too high.

If Gore had asked Clinton to campaign in FL for the last several days, attacked Bush Jr. on his DUI story much more severely, and consistenly asked people if they were better off than there were eight years ago right before the election, Gore would ahve probably won Florida by several thousand (not hundred) votes, if not more.

I'm sure that some seemingly completely irrelevant things could have swung the necessary 0.004% people to vote differently (0.0015% for Gore to have led in the recount).
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Bo
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2010, 10:39:57 pm »
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Bush was arrogant.

Gore, on the other hand pulled an all nighter campaigning in the only state where he outspent Bush, Florida. Gore said that Florida would come down to 1 vote per precinct. Of course, even that estimate was too high.

If Gore had asked Clinton to campaign in FL for the last several days, attacked Bush Jr. on his DUI story much more severely, and consistenly asked people if they were better off than there were eight years ago right before the election, Gore would ahve probably won Florida by several thousand (not hundred) votes, if not more.

I'm sure that some seemingly completely irrelevant things could have swung the necessary 0.004% people to vote differently (0.0015% for Gore to have led in the recount).

Still, it's surprising that Bush led in the national polls by 4-10% before his DUI story was released, and then ended up losing the PV and winning the election itself by the narrowest of margins.
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Derek
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« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2010, 11:21:20 am »
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The polls showed him winning comfortably as they did in 2004 for 3 weeks following the GOP convention. Those would've been the next states in line. That's the same as Obama spending his last few days in Texas, Georgia, Arizona, the Dakotas, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Polls will change strategies whether they should or not.
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phk
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« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2010, 01:45:05 pm »
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The late strategy should have been abandoned once the DUI story broke imo. It was a good play if it hadn't.
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Bo
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« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2010, 07:04:13 pm »
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The late strategy should have been abandoned once the DUI story broke imo. It was a good play if it hadn't.

Agreed. After the DUI story broke out, Bush should have immediately went to Florida and campaign there for the final several days. That way, his victory there would have likely been undisputed and there would have been no recount battles and court battles. That would have also improved his reputation with Democrats, since many of them perceived the 2000 election as stolen due to the SC stopping the recount in the middle without ordering a new one.
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GPORTER
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« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2010, 07:45:02 pm »
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The late strategy should have been abandoned once the DUI story broke imo. It was a good play if it hadn't.

Agreed. After the DUI story broke out, Bush should have immediately went to Florida and campaign there for the final several days. That way, his victory there would have likely been undisputed and there would have been no recount battles and court battles. That would have also improved his reputation with Democrats, since many of them perceived the 2000 election as stolen due to the SC stopping the recount in the middle without ordering a new one.
Maybe he should have gone to Pennsylvania to strengthen support there. That way, he would let Florida do what it wanted to do and have a second lifeline to the oval office if Florida did not go his way.
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Just for the fun of it, summer 2014 reading: I am taking college courses both in July & did in May. I have read all of the material for those. Besides that I read Gifted Hands: The Ben Carson Story & the book on Kennedy & Nixon by Chris Matthews both cover to cover & before that One Last Kiss: The Chris Coleman Story. All very informative & entertaining books. I have started Rendevouz With Destiny By Craig Shirley.
Bo
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« Reply #18 on: June 04, 2010, 07:50:11 pm »
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The late strategy should have been abandoned once the DUI story broke imo. It was a good play if it hadn't.

Agreed. After the DUI story broke out, Bush should have immediately went to Florida and campaign there for the final several days. That way, his victory there would have likely been undisputed and there would have been no recount battles and court battles. That would have also improved his reputation with Democrats, since many of them perceived the 2000 election as stolen due to the SC stopping the recount in the middle without ordering a new one.
Maybe he should have gone to Pennsylvania to strengthen support there. That way, he would let Florida do what it wanted to do and have a second lifeline to the oval office if Florida did not go his way.

Bad move. FL was always must closer than PA, and Bush ended up losing PA by 4% while winning FL by less than 0.01%. I don't see Bush causing a 2% swing in PA by camapigning there for just several days before the election. FL was always a much safer bet.
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Derek
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« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2010, 02:38:18 am »
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FL was safer and it was worth more electoral votes. It's also more conservative than PA at the national level.
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