Was PA-13 an upset?
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  Was PA-13 an upset?		 « previous next »
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Question: Was PA-13 an upset?
#1
yes		  
#2
no		  
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Total Voters: 26

Author Topic: Was PA-13 an upset?  (Read 5077 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« on: February 13, 2005, 05:30:40 PM »
go.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2005, 05:31:34 PM »
Someone like yourself who doesn't know a thing about this district wouldn't think so but most thought this seat should have went Republican.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2005, 05:32:14 PM »
The outcome- NO. The margin- YES.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2005, 05:44:48 PM »

Now who was the idiot that said this...

Quote from: Flyers2005 on March 31, 2004, 12:38:28 AM
My prediction is if Torsella pulls it out it would be his to win marginally.  Otherwise, Melissa Brown if she can hide her truly economically right wing views and hit on Section 8 hard.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2005, 05:52:32 PM »
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on February 13, 2005, 05:44:48 PM

Now who was the idiot that said this...

Quote from: Flyers2005 on March 31, 2004, 12:38:28 AM
My prediction is if Torsella pulls it out it would be his to win marginally.  Otherwise, Melissa Brown if she can hide her truly economically right wing views and hit on Section 8 hard.

I wasn't enitrely wrong.  She defended Bush on most economic issues. Schwartz made her pay!  And yes I'll admit, Brown might have done better had she mentioned Section 8 more. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2005, 05:57:18 PM »
Quote from: Flyers2005 on February 13, 2005, 05:52:32 PM
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on February 13, 2005, 05:44:48 PM

Now who was the idiot that said this...

Quote from: Flyers2005 on March 31, 2004, 12:38:28 AM
My prediction is if Torsella pulls it out it would be his to win marginally.  Otherwise, Melissa Brown if she can hide her truly economically right wing views and hit on Section 8 hard.

I wasn't enitrely wrong.  She defended Bush on most economic issues. Schwartz made her pay!  And yes I'll admit, Brown might have done better had she mentioned Section 8 more. 

Let's say it's April 28th. Now what if someone would have predicted a Schwartz win. Wouldn't you have said that it would be an upset?
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2005, 05:59:15 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2005, 06:01:42 PM by SCJ Texasgurl »
I bet it was for the loser :/
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2005, 06:02:21 PM »

Uh..no. You're an Allyson Schwartz type. She was the winner.  Sad
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2005, 06:03:36 PM »
Once again my attempt at humor is DOA.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2005, 06:05:08 PM »

I misread your comment. I thought you said "I bet I was for the loser." meaning you supported the loser in the race.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2005, 06:10:31 PM »
Let's clear this up.  At April 28th, 2004, I think PA 13 was a pure tossup.  About 2-3 weeks after Labor Day, I think it was fairly obvious Schwartz was winning.  The Republicans on primary day had very high turnout.  Northeast Philadelphia for some reason had very low turnout in general that day.  Funny Al Taubenberger almost won the NE.  He actually won my ward and defintitely the 63rd which is his home.
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nclib
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2005, 09:08:07 PM »
I don't think it was an upset since this seat had been held by a Democrat and the district was won easily by Gore and presumably Kerry.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2005, 09:12:37 PM »
Quote from: nclib on February 13, 2005, 09:08:07 PM
I don't think it was an upset since this seat had been held by a Democrat and the district was won easily by Gore and presumably Kerry.

Thanks for showing you know nothing about this district.

This district went big for Ed Rendell in 2002 yet Brown (R) only lost by four points to an incumbent that many felt would have an easy re-election.
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nclib
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« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2005, 09:16:59 PM »
Hoeffel never did well in that district and Kerry's margin was too much for Brown to overcome.

Yes I realize that you know much more about the district than I do, but I consider an upset when a Republican wins in a reliably Democratic district.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2005, 09:19:59 PM »
Quote from: nclib on February 13, 2005, 09:16:59 PM
Hoeffel never did well in that district and Kerry's margin was too much for Brown to overcome.

Yes I realize that you know much more about the district than I do, but I consider an upset when a Republican wins in a reliably Democratic district.

Hoeffel won by about nine points in 2000. I think that counts as doing well.

If you knew the district, you would realize someone like Schwartz is clearly out of touch with this district.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #15 on: February 13, 2005, 09:20:14 PM »
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on February 13, 2005, 09:12:37 PM
Quote from: nclib on February 13, 2005, 09:08:07 PM
I don't think it was an upset since this seat had been held by a Democrat and the district was won easily by Gore and presumably Kerry.

Thanks for showing you know nothing about this district.

This district went big for Ed Rendell in 2002 yet Brown (R) only lost by four points to an incumbent that many felt would have an easy re-election.

nclib has a semi-point.  Brown in 2002, was a surprise she did so well.  She caught that race off guard with Section 8 housing fears.  No one prior to that used the issue or addressed it until then.  Melissa Brown used the "magic card" so to say and still couldn't win.  You and I both know it gave her 20 points in Northeast Philadelphia.  It can never be used again though and that's the beauty part.  
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2005, 09:26:56 PM »
Quote from: Flyers2005 on February 13, 2005, 09:20:14 PM
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on February 13, 2005, 09:12:37 PM
Quote from: nclib on February 13, 2005, 09:08:07 PM
I don't think it was an upset since this seat had been held by a Democrat and the district was won easily by Gore and presumably Kerry.

Thanks for showing you know nothing about this district.

This district went big for Ed Rendell in 2002 yet Brown (R) only lost by four points to an incumbent that many felt would have an easy re-election.

nclib has a semi-point.  Brown in 2002, was a surprise she did so well.  She caught that race off guard with Section 8 housing fears.  No one prior to that used the issue or addressed it until then.  Melissa Brown used the "magic card" so to say and still couldn't win.  You and I both know it gave her 20 points in Northeast Philadelphia.  It can never be used again though and that's the beauty part.  

Section 8 fears? Can't you get over the fact that people liked the Section 8 reform issue being addressed?

People want this issue addressed and she didn't hit it hard this time.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2005, 03:53:02 AM »
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on February 13, 2005, 09:19:59 PM
Quote from: nclib on February 13, 2005, 09:16:59 PM
Hoeffel never did well in that district and Kerry's margin was too much for Brown to overcome.

Yes I realize that you know much more about the district than I do, but I consider an upset when a Republican wins in a reliably Democratic district.

If you knew the district, you would realize someone like Schwartz is clearly out of touch with this district.

Says you.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2005, 03:06:31 PM »
Quote from: Flyers2005 on February 15, 2005, 03:53:02 AM
Quote from: Vice President Keystone Phil on February 13, 2005, 09:19:59 PM
Quote from: nclib on February 13, 2005, 09:16:59 PM
Hoeffel never did well in that district and Kerry's margin was too much for Brown to overcome.

Yes I realize that you know much more about the district than I do, but I consider an upset when a Republican wins in a reliably Democratic district.

If you knew the district, you would realize someone like Schwartz is clearly out of touch with this district.

Says you.

Chestnut Hill left of liberal Democratic candidate vs. center right Republican candidate. Unless the district had some radical change from 2002 to 2004, Brown was clearly more in touch.
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