Is northern Virginia alone, strong enough to carry the state for Democrats?

[sg0508]

Opinions on this? In addition, we know that southeast VA is also becoming less red with each cycle and VA Beach has been a virtual toss-up the last two cycles, which was unheard of just a decade ago.

[DC Al Fine]

Not yet. The GOP could still carry the state in a good year. Give the DC suburbs more time to expand and northern VA will be enough for the Dems though.

[memphis]

Fairfax+Loudon+Arlington+Alexandria+Prince William are only between a quarter and a third of the state. The Dems must do well in Hampton Roads and Metro Richmond also.

[Smash255]

The movement in other parts of the state such as VA Beach has helped.   Same with suburban Richmond, as Henrico has become Democratic and Chesterfield while still Republican, isn't nearly as Republican as it was once.  The Dems do have other strong pockets.

With that being said, I would consider it something similar to PA and how suburban Philly comes into play there.  The GOP doesn't have to win suburban Philly to win the state, however the margins any Democratic candidate (for President anyway) will likely run up in suburban Philly, makes the math almost impossible when you look at the rest of the state for the GOP to win.  Same thing with NOVA, the GOP doesn't have to win it to win the state, but the margins the Democrats will run up in NOVA make the math extremely difficult.

[opebo]

Well, given that even with a white Democrat, the blacks and other non-whites in all other parts of the state will vote (albeit with less turnout) heavily Democratic, we can't realistically view NOVA as the only source of important Democratic support, even in a year with a very strong GOP candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

For a Democrat to win Virginia, they need to get about 60% in Fairfax and 55% in Prince Willy and also carry Loudoun.  Then they have to carry Henrico and keep Virginia Beach to a low single digit Republican win.  That's pretty much what they need to win the state.