Breaking: Tom Harkin to retire

[Talleyrand]

I don't see Latham giving up ten terms of seniority in a relatively comfortable House seat at the age of sixty-six to run in an election which he would probably have an even shot of winning (then again Ed Markey is running despite being in a similar situation...). I'm also guessing Steve King is blowing hot air rather than actually being serious about a run.

I think Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds may run, or possibly Matt Shultz, the Secretary of State. He's only thirty-three and could have a long future in Iowa politics.

As for the Democrats, I think Braley will run and clear the field.

[Talleyrand]

The GOP nomination belongs to Steve King, the only real question is who will be the Democrat to face him.

I really don't think we should take for granted that this Tea Party phenomenon of nominating radical loudmouths over mainstream establishment types will continue. Otherwise, we'll get caught napping in the same situation Republicans were the last two cycles. 

[Talleyrand]

I think if it ended up being King v. Latham, Republicans would be pleasantly surprised by the results.

While King would likely start off with a huge lead, my gut feeling is that he'd make a number of gaffes and run an idiosyncratic campaign, something money and grassroots support could not make up for. Latham would steadily close in with a strong, establishment-funded campaign and his connections to most counties in the state would close the deal for him, giving him a comfortable win by the end of the campaign.

However, I only think one of these two gentlemen, if either, will run, and we'll see someone like Matt Schultz or Kim Reynolds enter.

[Talleyrand]

I forgot that. Thanks for pointing that out. I'd expect King to replicate Plaats' performance closely, but  he could still win, especially if Branstad couldn't take out Plaats by more than that. 

[Talleyrand]

Looking at the map, King has lots of room to improve on Vander Plaat's performance in the northwest.

Tom Harkin has been a great Senator and I wish him well in his retirement. Even if a Dem replaces him, he/she won't be as good as Harkin. If Steve King is nominated, Dems should be in good shape. Otherwise, I'd say lean Dem, but would depend on the campaign and the 2014 climate. As for King and Vander Plaats, wouldn't King be expected to run ahead of V.P. based on representing more of the state?

Doesn't Latham have lots of room to improve on Branstad elsewhere though? He's represented most of the state before, and he's fresher in voter's minds than Branstad was in 2010. You guys have a point that he's probably higher-profile than V.P. and could improve on him in one region, but I think there's some case to be made for Latham overpeforming as well.

[Talleyrand]

Good, Safe Dem hold.

I would go more with Tilt or Lean at this point, since we don't know what the climate will be like next year, but this is definitely an excellent development.