French legislative by-elections (14th Legislature)

[Hash]

The scale is a bit surprising, but, the fact than FN progressed much isn't.

The Republican Front is dead, since the 2012 Legislatives and today proved it again.
And, honestly, for some left-wingers, the economical/Europe project is more attracting than the UMP one.

And on immigration, now, Mancel (and a whole segment of UMP) and FN, that's almost the same thing.

We can just hope it follows an UKIP-like path instead of a BNP-like path, for the sake of French minorities.

Indeed, I was expecting that the victory could be quite narrow; for a number of reasons:

a) Mancel is a douchebag and a FN lite asshole to boot, the left has no reason to save him. The PS candidate said the choice was between the l'extrême droite et la droite extrême and that Mancel was not a "republican" candidate. If a more agreeable and moderate UMP guy had been in this situation, then he/she would have won by a larger margin because the left would have a reason to vote for him/her to block the FN. In this case, it was basically blanc bonnet and bonnet blanc.

b) the FN in its Panzergirl incarnation has shown a remarkable capacity to increase its vote share substantially in "duel" runoffs (left/FN or right/FN), in the 2011 cantonal elections (ex: Mancel held his CG seat against Italiani in 2011 with 51.7% in the runoff) and the 2012 legislative elections. The FN certainly has a wider theoretical electorate in duel runoffs and it is less toxic than it was under Daddy.

c) Low turnout can create weird situations. Turnout increased in the runoff, but it might be from Panzergirl/FN voters who stayed home last week.

d) The events of the past week have strengthened Panzergirl's message and appeal: Cahuzac affair and resignation/Sarkozy indictment (the 'tous pourris'/UMPS); Cyprus kerfuffle ('Europe sucks balls'/'European technocrats')

But we should still be careful before assuming that the FN's superb performance is from R1 PS voters voting for the FN. See: http://www.politiquemania.com/legislatives-2012-commune-alpes-maritimes-6132.html

[Hash]

Map:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you have the map of the 2012 regular election, to compare?

[Hash]

Hastily made:

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is clearly a big overlap between left and FN, though it's not perfect. Unsurprising, since FN votes have to come from somewhere...

[Zanas]

I would rather say that places that went left in 2012 had more people to boycott the runoff this time and that this lower turnout in these places helped the FN.

But sure in a place like Oise there can be a number of awful dumb left-to-FN voters... I lived in Moselle until a month ago after all...

[Hash]

Joel Gombin has estimated, based on an environmental analysis by precinct, that 43% of R1 PS voters voted for the FN in the runoff: http://www.joelgombin.fr/que-sest-il-passe-dans-la-2e-circonscription-de-loise/

[Zanas]

Arf...

We should burn this place. And so many others...

[Kitteh]

Is it bad that the first thing I thought of when looking at those maps is how phallic-shaped this district is?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it bad that the first thing I thought of when looking at those maps is how phallic-shaped this district is?

Yes. It means you're going to burn in Hell.

[Hash]

E-voting for the abroad by-elections start tomorrow, run for a week. The actual in-person voting for the first round is May 25 (1st) and May 26 (8th). I will probably be voting EELV, once again for lack of any better option. I'm trying to convince my anti-PS parents to vote any other right-winger than Fredo Lefebvre, either lilGiscard or *gasp* FN.

btw, the PS apparently did some research on the Oise-2 runoff by actually comparing the lists of votes cast and it would seem that there was actually major overhaul in the electorate from R1 to R2 (eg: lefties stayed home, FN turnout picked up), which would infirm the previous theory that a lot of left-wingers voted FN. If anyone is interested, I can try to hunt down the articles in question.

[MaxQue]

You think than Giscard can beat Lefebvre?

[Hash]

You think than Giscard can beat Lefebvre?

This race is utterly unpredictable because turnout will be so ridiculously low. Lefebvre has sent out more spam emails than Giscard has, but at the same time there are a few random DVD candidates out there and Fredo is still horrible.

I voted EELV. I convinced my dad to vote FN and my mom to vote UDI, tout sauf UMP.

[windjammer]

So Panzer girl is rising... A scandal in this xenophobic party would be appreciated...

[Antonio the Sixth]

When the best candidate with a chance to win is a random useless "son-of", you know this is gonna be horrible...

[Hash]

LH2 poll in Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 30%
Bernard Barral (PS) 23%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 21%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 5%

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 27%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 22%
Bernard Barral (PS) 19%
Swiss Bank Accounts 11%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 4%

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2013/05/17/1628504-sondages-legislative-partielle-villeneuve-lot-jerome-cahuzac-donne-perdant.html

[Hash]

I haven't followed the by-election in the other foreign constituency (8th, Israel/Italy/Greece/Turkey) all that much, but the right seems very much divided again between various super duper pro-Israeli candidates who all want to kill Arabs.

Netanyahu has openly endorsed the UDI candidate: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2013/05/20/97001-20130520FILWWW00320-partielleisrael-netanyahou-soutient-ludi.php

[windjammer]

LH2 poll in Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 30%
Bernard Barral (PS) 23%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 21%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 5%

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 27%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 22%
Bernard Barral (PS) 19%
Swiss Bank Accounts 11%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 4%

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2013/05/17/1628504-sondages-legislative-partielle-villeneuve-lot-jerome-cahuzac-donne-perdant.html

11%!!!!! I'm shocked!

[MaxQue]

LH2 poll in Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 30%
Bernard Barral (PS) 23%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 21%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 5%

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 27%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 22%
Bernard Barral (PS) 19%
Swiss Bank Accounts 11%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 4%

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2013/05/17/1628504-sondages-legislative-partielle-villeneuve-lot-jerome-cahuzac-donne-perdant.html

11%!!!!! I'm shocked!

Considering than people like Balkany got reelected despite being condemned for corruption, is that really surprising (Carignon, etc...)

[Antonio the Sixth]

The hilarious thing is that Cahuzac seems to take roughly the same amount of votes from each other candidate.

[Hash]

Internet turnout was 9% in the 1st and about 5% in the 8th, in both cases down from 2012 (14% and 7% respectively). So we should probably have turnout under 15% here and below 10% in the 8th.

[Hash]

Reports that turnout at the physical voting stations was below 5%, certainly below 10%, in a lot of places today. Early results from only those physical voting stations indicate that Fredo (UMP) is probably ahead, Scemama (PS) is doing poorly but not catastrophically, Regnard (DVD) is doing well in certain places in the US while lilGiscard (UDI) is generally mediocre. Way too early probably, but I would think it will be a normal UMP - PS runoff, favouring Fredo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh...

[Hash]

1st constituency full results (2012 results in brackets)
Turnout 14.54% (19.07)

Frédéric Lefebvre (UMP) 29.15% (22.08)
Franck Scemama (PS) 24.98% (PS-EELV 39.65)
Damien Regnard (DVD/RFE) 12.67%
Louis Giscard d'Estaing (UDI) 8.63%
Cyrille Giraud (EELV) 7.39%
Nicolas Druet (MoDem) 6.01% (4.94)
Céline Clement (FG) 4.15% (2.85)
Thierry-Franck Fautre (FN) 3.73% (4.29)
Véronique Vermorel (Pirate) 2.5% (1.29)
Pauline Czartoryska (Ind) 0.27%
Nicolas Rousseaux (DVD) 0.26%
Karel Vereycken (LaRouchite) 0.25%

http://www.franckscemama.com/resultats/

Congrats to lilGiscard!

[Hifly]

1st constituency full results (2012 results in brackets)
Turnout 14.54% (19.07)

Frédéric Lefebvre (UMP) 27.35% (22.08)
Franck Scemama (PS) 26.73% (PS-EELV 39.65)
Damien Regnard (DVD/RFE) 12.46%
Louis Giscard d'Estaing (UDI) 9.12%
Cyrille Giraud (EELV) 8.28%
Nicolas Druet (MoDem) 5.97% (4.94)
Céline Clement (FG) 5.1% (2.85)
Thierry-Franck Fautre (FN) 3.34% (4.29)
Véronique Vermorel (Pirate) 1.36% (1.29)
Nicolas Rousseaux (DVD) 0.21%
Karel Vereycken (LaRouchite) 0.07%
Pauline Czartoryska (Ind) 0 votes!

http://www.franckscemama.com/resultats/

Congrats to lilGiscard!

Does this mean a clean defeat for the PS in the second round?