French legislative by-elections (14th Legislature)

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8th constituency full results (2012 results in brackets)
turnout: 10.37% (13.37)

Valérie Hoffenberg (UMP) 21.85% (22.20)
Meyer Habib (Likud/Israeli government) 15.37%
Marie-Rose Koro (PS) 14.62% (30.50)
Alexandre Bezardin (DVD/UMP Italy) 7.79%
Michèle Parravicini (FG) 7.11% (6.32)
Jonathan-Simon Sellem (DVD/PLD) 6.65%
Athnase Contargyris (EELV) 5.87% (10.5)
Nathalie Mimoun (Ind) 5.28%
Shapira David (Ind) 4.22%
Fratty Albert (Ind) 3.38%
Huguette Levy (FN) 1.79% (3.76)
Bunch of useless others

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/Total_1er_tour_modalites_CC_CL8_cle45254e.pdf
turnout: 13.37%

[Antonio the Sixth]

1st constituency full results (2012 results in brackets)
Turnout 14.54% (19.07)

Frédéric Lefebvre (UMP) 27.35% (22.08)
Franck Scemama (PS) 26.73% (PS-EELV 39.65)
Damien Regnard (DVD/RFE) 12.46%
Louis Giscard d'Estaing (UDI) 9.12%
Cyrille Giraud (EELV) 8.28%
Nicolas Druet (MoDem) 5.97% (4.94)
Céline Clement (FG) 5.1% (2.85)
Thierry-Franck Fautre (FN) 3.34% (4.29)
Véronique Vermorel (Pirate) 1.36% (1.29)
Nicolas Rousseaux (DVD) 0.21%
Karel Vereycken (LaRouchite) 0.07%
Pauline Czartoryska (Ind) 0 votes!

http://www.franckscemama.com/resultats/

Congrats to lilGiscard!

Does this mean a clean defeat for the PS in the second round?

Yeah, I guess it's over. Say hello to Mr. Attention Whore.

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Random tidbit: the "UMP" deputy for Wallis-et-Futuna has joined the Socialist group.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Random tidbit: the "UMP" deputy for Wallis-et-Futuna has joined the Socialist group.

Haha, gotta love Outre Mer politics.

[windjammer]

8th constituency full results (2012 results in brackets)
turnout: 10.37% (13.37)

Valérie Hoffenberg (UMP) 21.85% (22.20)
Meyer Habib (Likud/Israeli government) 15.37%
Marie-Rose Koro (PS) 14.62% (30.50)
Alexandre Bezardin (DVD/UMP Italy) 7.79%
Michèle Parravicini (FG) 7.11% (6.32)
Jonathan-Simon Sellem (DVD/PLD) 6.65%
Athnase Contargyris (EELV) 5.87% (10.5)
Nathalie Mimoun (Ind) 5.28%
Shapira David (Ind) 4.22%
Fratty Albert (Ind) 3.38%
Huguette Levy (FN) 1.79% (3.76)
Bunch of useless others

http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/Total_1er_tour_modalites_CC_CL8_cle45254e.pdf
turnout: 13.37%

Likud?

[Leftbehind]

lol Likud: the ruling part in Israel - it's fairly easy to see what he's implying.

[MaxQue]

lol Likud: the ruling part in Israel - it's fairly easy to see what he's implying.

Netanhayu campaigned for that candidate.

[Leftbehind]

That I did not know.

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Fredo (UMP) has won about 53-47, not a shabby result for the PS considering everything but still... yuck. My representative is going to be this horrible sack of crap.

In the other constituency, apparently the Likud candidate has won.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Damn...

[Zanas]

And the stupid French media is all like "OMG PS is just about to lose their absolute majority ! :-O"  .......   -___-

Yeah, well... no. PS alone, or more precisely SRC group, is still at 292, and it's not like they have no PRG, DVG, not to speak about FG, or Green reinforcement anyway...

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Results by consular constituency, 8th constituency:

CYPRUS: 56.47% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.97%
Athens (Greece): 57.06% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.22%
Thessaloniki (Greece): 67.52% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 16.92%
GREECE: 58.93% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.97%
Haifa (Israel): 53.13% Habib (UDI), turnout 3.97%
Tel Aviv (Israel): 60.47% Habib (UDI), turnout 7.43%
ISRAEL: 59.56% Habib (UDI), turnout 6.4%
Milan (Italy): 64.44% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.46%
Naples (Italy): 71.35% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 9.48%
Rome (Italy): 64.57% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.53%
Turin (Italy): 65.52% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.33%
ITALY: 65.1% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.32%
JERUSALEM: 81.79% Habib (UDI), turnout 11.13%
MALTA: 61.54% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 10.89%
Ankara (Turkey): 51.52% Hoffenberg (UMP), turnout 11.76%
Istanbul (Turkey): 55.9% Habib (UDI), turnout 9.01%
TURKEY: 54.24% Habib (UDI), turnout 9.49%

In the first round, the EELV candidate (who is Greek) won 31% in Greece and nearly 40% in Thessaloniki. The FG also won 15.2% in Greece. Hoffenberg (UMP) placed behind the UMP dissident, in fourth place. Greece is awesome.
Habib won 25% in Israel and 46% in Jerusalem, but only 1-4% in the other countries.
The PS did best in Turkey (47%) and Italy (23%). She won less than 5% in Israel.
The UMP dissident from Italy won 13% in Italy.
The Jewish right-wing guy (Simon Sellem) took 15% in Israel and 9% in Jerusalem, but like 0-1% in the other countries.

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Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

Jean-Louis Costes (UMP) 28.71% (2012: 27%)
Etienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 26.04% (2012: 15.71%)
Bernard Barral (PS) 23.69% (2012: 46.86%)
Marie-Hélène Loiseau (FG) 5.08% (2012: 4.5%)
Anne Carpentier (Parti d'en rire) 3.28%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 2.78% (2012: 2.03%)
Yamina Kichi (MoDem) 2.33%
Benoît Frison-Roche (DVD) 2.32%
Hervé Lebreton (SE) 1.69%
Joffrey-Raphaël Leygues (DVC) 1.44%
Maria-Fé Garay (NPA) 1.11%
François Asselineau (UPR - Cogendist crypto-fascists) 0.58%
Nicolas 'tax fraud' Miguet / French Ron Paul (Paultard 'RCF') 0.42%
Cédric Levieux (Pirate) 0.19%
Stéphane Geyres (Libertarian) 0.17%
Michel Garcia-Luna (AR - monarchists) 0.16%
Rachid Nekkaz (perennial losers) 0.00%

abstention 54% btw

My dystopian timeline is looking more and more realistic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

[Zanas]

The most annoying part is that there is no inter-left wing vote transfer at all... But we have to assume that many many left-wing were just too disgusted by the whole thing to be bothered to vote, whereas jackasses that wanted to stir up the hornets' nest answered the blue marine call...

Still, terrible and terrifying...

[big bad fab]

Not so sure the UMP will win easily in the second round.
Many moderate leftists will think it's no use voting at all.
Many leftists will not want to make such a present to the abhorred right.

The UMP isn't exactly triumphant here.
With harkis, pieds-noirs, fruits and vegetables culture, small businesses, some seasonal immigration, this constituency is ideal for the FN in the SW.

Sure, Oise was even better for the FN, but I'm not really at ease with all that.

[Hash]

The buzz right now seems to be that the FN is going all-in in the runoff and that it is quite optimistic about its chances of winning. Their candidate is a 23-year old tool who regurgitates Panzergirl's Words of Wisdom incessantly and talks in the usual FN platitudes (but this is what Panzergirl wants: "young, dynamic" idiots who don't challenge her and are subservient to her, see Philippot), but the UMP candidate seems like a bit of a tool and he's very opportunist (fact: he's a supporter of the very right-wing MIL, which is like the FN circa 1984; but he's running a "front republicain" campaign and calling the FN fascist, pot meet kettle).

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Turnout is up 2-4% on the first round...

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The UMP is going to win, narrowly, but still.

[Antonio the Sixth]

54/46, apparently. LOL.

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UMP 53.76%
FN 46.24%

abstention 47.5% (54% last week) but 7.5% blancs et nuls.

[Hash]

If anybody cares, here's my blog post on the matter: http://welections.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/lot-et-garonne-3-by-election/

Complete with a profile, graphs, maps and incessant blabbering.

[Velasco]

The most depressing thing to me is what you say about the cordon sanitaire. It's not that I'm surprised, just the confirmation of a nightmare political scene. If there's not Republican Front anymore and Marine Le Pen passes to the next Presidential 2nd round...

[DC Al Fine]

If anybody cares, here's my blog post on the matter: http://welections.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/lot-et-garonne-3-by-election/

Complete with a profile, graphs, maps and incessant blabbering.

Just discovered your blog

*Spends all night reading election analysis*

[big bad fab]

Copé has immediately stated that the "droite décomplexée" is the best strategy.
What a mistake and how worrying for the years to come....
Well, either he will pave the way for a more efficient FN to swallow half of the UMP. Or he will make sure that all the moderates will flee to a moderate centre-left candidate.
Sarkozy will add his own mess, probably trying to create a new party, over the UMP (so as to avoid primary elections and to crush Fillon from the outside)... A new party which will be cleraly on the right of the right.

Today, there is no momentum for the UMP and that's a real problem.
Jean-Marie Le Pen was at between 10 and 15%, with only a peak once at 20%.
Panzergirl is at 15-20%, with an ability to reach 25%. She can make it to the second round in a presidential election. And then, with a growing hate between right and left, and despair among a large bunch of leftists, and disappointment among a good half of rightists, she might be able to create a surprise.
And then, if the FN is able to reach 25-30% in the legislative elections following the presidential election, well...

Sure, that's not a very likely scenario, but still... when limits are broken, everything can happen very quickly.

Too bad Fillon hasn't a stronger personality... to avoid this nightmare.


As for the by-election itself, it just reveals that the FN is clearly the party of "the people", now. It's strong among popular left (workers of course, but also small employees) and popular right (either small businesses, or rural voters).
What is more, the FN is stronger and stronger in areas where it has always been weak: Berry, Touraine, Charentes,... maybe all the SW and the inner NW now.
The problem is I meet more and more people from the "elite" or from bourgeois classes who are ready to vote for the FN.
When the FN is able to have better results in Ile-de-France, be ready for the worst scenario.