French legislative by-elections (14th Legislature)
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Umengus
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« Reply #100 on: February 03, 2015, 06:13:04 PM »
« edited: February 05, 2015, 01:51:10 PM by Umengus »

UMP's political bureau officially endorsed the "ni-ni" strategy (meaning that it won't endorse the PS nor the FN candidate), but the vote was surprisingly close, 22-19.

According to Le Monde, 22 backed the official ni-ni while 19 backed the idea of making no official endorsement but showing more willingness to fight the FN, a position backed by NKM and Sarko. Only Juppé seems to be publicly endorsing the PS here, although NKM implicitly said likewise.

so sarko in minority... in his party... lol
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Umengus
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« Reply #101 on: February 05, 2015, 01:51:59 PM »

ifop poll

Doubs

PS 53
FN 47

don't be suprised if fn wins sunday...
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Hashemite
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« Reply #102 on: February 08, 2015, 12:56:29 PM »

Very early numbers indicate the FN at 50.26%...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #103 on: February 08, 2015, 01:49:47 PM »

Pretty shocking that the Left Front along with NPA only managed 3% with a heavily industrial center like Sochaux being able to carry this region.

Wasn't one of the main hotspots for Mai 68 revolutionary remnants in the 70s and 80s.

http://rendezvousavecmrx.free.fr/page/detail_emission.php?cle_emission=694
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Hashemite
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« Reply #104 on: February 08, 2015, 01:56:40 PM »

The PS seems to have won very narrowly, by some like 700 votes.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #105 on: February 08, 2015, 02:21:03 PM »

The PS seems to have won very narrowly, by some like 700 votes.

This country is doomed.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #106 on: February 08, 2015, 02:25:38 PM »

The PS seems to have won very narrowly, by some like 700 votes.

This country is doomed.

All things considered, this result isn't that terrible. It strikes me as a pleasant surprise, I would have expected a UMP-FN runoff with a narrow UMP victory rather than a PS-FN runoff with a narrow PS victory. This is the kind of constituency where I'd expect a total PS implosion.
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Colbert
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« Reply #107 on: February 08, 2015, 03:07:31 PM »

the left-wing french parties never "implose" or die.


They just became slowy shorter and shorter, but still living. As the radical party.


Other element coming strongly to this theory : the law on financial of political parties (1994) made very difficult the birth of a new strong party.



So, even with the doomsday of march (departementales) and december (region elections), the PS, as the Grejoy, never die.


The end could happening with a coalition of the left front and the greens, becoming first party of the left.


But it is clear that, everywhere in Europe, time of classical social-democracy are over (the most evident proof of it is the rise of D66 and decline of dutch social-democratic party). Left, in the future, will be divided into podemos-left front- syriza likes, and social-liberal on the other side.

Classic liberalism and classic social-democracy are dying.
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swl
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« Reply #108 on: February 08, 2015, 03:47:21 PM »

It's not a very glorious win, but at least it's a win for the PS... Still better than their last string of defeats.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #109 on: February 08, 2015, 04:13:59 PM »


Suffering the same fate as *that one* Greyjoy is far worse than dying though. Tongue
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politicus
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« Reply #110 on: February 08, 2015, 04:16:50 PM »


Suffering the same fate as *that one* Greyjoy is far worse than dying though. Tongue

What is this a reference to?
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politicus
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« Reply #111 on: February 08, 2015, 04:30:27 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2015, 04:35:25 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »


But it is clear that, everywhere in Europe, time of classical social-democracy are over (the most evident proof of it is the rise of D66 and decline of dutch social-democratic party). Left, in the future, will be divided into podemos-left front- syriza likes, and social-liberal on the other side.

Classic liberalism and classic social-democracy are dying.

There is a third option of left wing populism - sometimes combined with/attached to nationalism as in Sinn Fein and SNP. This option will likely prevail in Eastern Europe.

If you only got Social Liberals and "movement leftism" (dunno if there is a proper term for it) you more or less abandon the working class/poor to right wing populists.

Also, classical SD parties will survive in one form or another in the Social Democratic core areas for a long time. The death of Labour or SDA are not around the corner.

Where does Green parties fit into your prognosis?
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #112 on: February 08, 2015, 04:35:28 PM »


Suffering the same fate as *that one* Greyjoy is far worse than dying though. Tongue

What is this a reference to?

I think it's a Game of Thrones reference.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #113 on: February 09, 2015, 05:35:05 AM »


Suffering the same fate as *that one* Greyjoy is far worse than dying though. Tongue

What is this a reference to?

I think it's a Game of Thrones reference.

Yup.
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Zanas
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« Reply #114 on: February 10, 2015, 07:01:33 PM »

Anyway, back on topic here. Probably we got pretty bad transfers from UMP to FN, pretty good ones from UMP to PS, and pretty good mobiization of new PS voters in the second round, with quite a bunch of new FN voters as well.

We have to assume that a good chunk of the UMP electorate has already switched to FN as soon as the first round, so the UMP vote in the first round had its gravity centre moved to the left, plus it was a candidate backed by UMP-UDI-Modem.

We cannot be sure, but the models I can see working for these results in various communes seem to indicate Demouge transfers as follows : 50 Abst, 25 FN, 25 PS. It may be one point or two more for the FN or the PS.

It's all quite interesting and will be tested on a large scale next March in the departmental elections...
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