PPP: Texans Done With Perry

[Likely Voter]

There are three reasons Rick Perry's 2016 prospects are not looking good. Firstly a new PPP poll shows 62% of Texans don't want him to run for reelection for governor in 2014 (including 47% of Republicans). Secondly the same poll shows him trailing Democrat Bill White by 3 points (with Attorney General Abbot leading White by 10 points). And, um the third thing was....wait, um....oh....79% of Texans don't think he should run for president in 2016.

This puts Perry in a tough spot. If he loses the TX governor primary challenge or loses the state general election, he can forget about running for prez again as he would have a big L tattoed on his forehead (even worse than Santorum as he lost in TX). If he doesn't run he can avoid looking like a loser but could end up with some of the taint of appearing to being pushed aside.

I would say if Perry wants to run for prez in 2016 he needs to turn this around and get renominated and win the general to show he is a winner.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Perry has been there forever; I don't think he has to prove anything record-wise. He's just old news at this point and a poor national candidate in a post-Dubya landscape.

[memphis]

Oops.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

He's been in power far too long, get him out!

[Maxwell]

I know times are different, but wasn't he also behind Kay Bailey Hutchinson? By a more significant margin?

Either way, if Greg Abbott wins the Republican Nomination, he wins.

[Talleyrand]

I know times are different, but wasn't he also behind Kay Bailey Hutchinson? By a more significant margin?

Either way, if Greg Abbott wins the Republican Nomination, he wins.

You're right. I caution against counting this guy out- in either the primary or general election. I don't think it will be a blowout either way, assuming Abbott pulls the trigger, but Perry will have a much tougher time than in any prior race.

[Indy Texas]

Perry's approval ratings have been consistently bad since the end of his first full term. He always wins through a combination of fracturing his opposition and convincing voters that if they vote him out of office, the state is going to be overrun by UN shock troops out to shut down the oil refineries and confiscate the guns. His reliance on personal graft and engendering fear of "meddling outsiders" is not unlike that of someone running an ex-Soviet petro-state in Central Asia.

[Talleyrand]

Perry's approval ratings have been consistently bad since the end of his first full term. He always wins through a combination of fracturing his opposition and convincing voters that if they vote him out of office, the state is going to be overrun by UN shock troops out to shut down the oil refineries and confiscate the guns. His reliance on personal graft and engendering fear of "meddling outsiders" is not unlike that of someone running an ex-Soviet petro-state in Central Asia.

He won't be able to portray Abbott as a "meddling outsider" in the way he was able to portray Kay Bailey Hutchison as someone who had gone "Washington". That's going to something tough to overcome, I think.

[RogueBeaver]

He also portrayed her, mostly accurately, as "moderate." Abbott would be challenging Perry from his right. I'm quite curious to see how the TP crowd reacts if Abbott does in fact pull the trigger.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

He's leading virtually every other Democrat in head to head polling, however.

[King]

Perry's approval ratings have been consistently bad since the end of his first full term. He always wins through a combination of fracturing his opposition and convincing voters that if they vote him out of office, the state is going to be overrun by UN shock troops out to shut down the oil refineries and confiscate the guns. His reliance on personal graft and engendering fear of "meddling outsiders" is not unlike that of someone running an ex-Soviet petro-state in Central Asia.

Cute story.  Actually, Perry has won re-election so much by:

(1) Eliminating primary opposition through cronyism
(2) Staying out of the public eye as much as possible so straight ticket Republicans don't know how stupid he really is
(3) Being blessed with a state that elects its governor during the midterms where minority turnout is low

A lot of politicians win this way, but most are smart enough to know not to run for President and blow their cover.

[Simfan34]

Perry's approval ratings have been consistently bad since the end of his first full term. He always wins through a combination of fracturing his opposition and convincing voters that if they vote him out of office, the state is going to be overrun by UN shock troops out to shut down the oil refineries and confiscate the guns. His reliance on personal graft and engendering fear of "meddling outsiders" is not unlike that of someone running an ex-Soviet petro-state in Central Asia.

I must say there's something oddly fascinating about this imagery. It's kind of fun to think about, because it sounds rather true.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP says they'll have more results from this poll tomorrow and the next day.  Looks like at least one of those days will feature GOP presidential primary numbers, since they had this tweet the other day:

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/296015944013189120

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[RogueBeaver]

LOL.

[Obamanation]

He would still easily win the general election.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm not even from Texas and I was done with him a long time ago.  He's been there long enough.  I have relatives in Texas who really seem to like him, but I don't, and I never have.

[Mr. Morden]

They didn't release the 2016 numbers today.  I guess they'll do so tomorrow.  They did offer this additional tease on Twitter:

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/296715302861946881

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[badgate]

Yeah, I advocated for Battleground Texas targeting the Dallas exurbs and even I don't think that's possible. Looking forward to the rest of the poll

[pbrower2a]

Perry's approval ratings have been consistently bad since the end of his first full term. He always wins through a combination of fracturing his opposition and convincing voters that if they vote him out of office, the state is going to be overrun by UN shock troops out to shut down the oil refineries and confiscate the guns. His reliance on personal graft and engendering fear of "meddling outsiders" is not unlike that of someone running an ex-Soviet petro-state in Central Asia.

Cute story.  Actually, Perry has won re-election so much by:

(1) Eliminating primary opposition through cronyism
(2) Staying out of the public eye as much as possible so straight ticket Republicans don't know how stupid he really is
(3) Being blessed with a state that elects its governor during the midterms where minority turnout is low

A lot of politicians win this way, but most are smart enough to know not to run for President and blow their cover.

Of course, Perry did make the inept run for the Presidency and exposed himself.

Cronyism tires voters of it. Scandals eventually break, and the obvious solution is to vote for the opponent in the general election. Texas isn't Mississippi.

Minority turnout might be depressed, but not as much as the white vote if white people get apathetic about an incumbent of which they tire. Texas is more urban than the national average, and a Democratic nominee who attracts suburban voters on a 'clean government' agenda with mass rallies similar to those of Barack Obama could win in some suburban areas in which Barack Obama did badly, even if the message is different.  Suburban, middle-class voters have little tolerance for corruption whatever their ethnicity.

PPP showed a poll in which President Obama had an approval rating of 47-51, the 47 being much higher than the percentage of the vote that he got in November. This is in a state in which he never campaigned after the 2008 primary election. Political attitudes may be changing in Texas. If Rick Perry can be linked to specific policies that may have been popular in Texas at one time (such as lax gun laws) but are no longer popular, then a Democrat might have a chance. Rick Perry has kept the statewide bench of Republican pols very weak, so he can't be defeated in the primary. He just might become a sitting duck in the general election.    

[publicunofficial]

Well he's passed one hurdle, as Perry is now stating that a deal has been made between Abbott and himself and that Abbott has agreed not to challenge him in a primary.

Helps Perry's chances of winning the primary, but lowers (albeit slightly) the GOP's chances of winning the general.

[hopper]

Perry's approval ratings have been consistently bad since the end of his first full term. He always wins through a combination of fracturing his opposition and convincing voters that if they vote him out of office, the state is going to be overrun by UN shock troops out to shut down the oil refineries and confiscate the guns. His reliance on personal graft and engendering fear of "meddling outsiders" is not unlike that of someone running an ex-Soviet petro-state in Central Asia.

I saw his approval's at 63% before his 2010 re-election from a Rassmussen poll. His approvals went way down after his failed presidential run.

[hopper]

I'm not even from Texas and I was done with him a long time ago.  He's been there long enough.  I have relatives in Texas who really seem to like him, but I don't, and I never have.

Yeah he has been Governor for 13 years I do think its time for someone new.

[Politico]

Since he has so many friends in high places, I would say he is going to win re-election if he wants it. I would certainly not bet against him. A few clever ads, a weak opponent, and he can probably get the approval rating back above 50% in no time.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Texans were done with Perry in 2006 and 2010. Wake me up when something actually happens.