There are three reasons Rick Perry's 2016 prospects are not looking good. Firstly a new
PPP poll shows 62% of Texans don't want him to run for reelection for governor in 2014 (including 47% of Republicans). Secondly the same poll shows him trailing Democrat Bill White by 3 points (with Attorney General Abbot leading White by 10 points). And, um the third thing was....wait, um....oh....79% of Texans don't think he should run for president in 2016.
This puts Perry in a tough spot. If he loses the TX governor primary challenge or loses the state general election, he can forget about running for prez again as he would have a big L tattoed on his forehead (even worse than Santorum as he lost in TX). If he doesn't run he can avoid looking like a loser but could end up with some of the taint of appearing to being pushed aside.
I would say if Perry wants to run for prez in 2016 he needs to turn this around and get renominated and win the general to show he is a winner.