Perry's approval ratings have been consistently bad since the end of his first full term. He always wins through a combination of fracturing his opposition and convincing voters that if they vote him out of office, the state is going to be overrun by UN shock troops out to shut down the oil refineries and confiscate the guns. His reliance on personal graft and engendering fear of "meddling outsiders" is not unlike that of someone running an ex-Soviet petro-state in Central Asia.
Cute story. Actually, Perry has won re-election so much by:
(1) Eliminating primary opposition through cronyism
(2) Staying out of the public eye as much as possible so straight ticket Republicans don't know how stupid he really is
(3) Being blessed with a state that elects its governor during the midterms where minority turnout is low
A lot of politicians win this way, but most are smart enough to know not to run for President and blow their cover.
Of course, Perry did make the inept run for the Presidency and exposed himself.
Cronyism tires voters of it. Scandals eventually break, and the obvious solution is to vote for the opponent in the general election. Texas isn't Mississippi.
Minority turnout might be depressed, but not as much as the white vote if white people get apathetic about an incumbent of which they tire. Texas is more urban than the national average, and a Democratic nominee who attracts suburban voters on a 'clean government' agenda with mass rallies similar to those of Barack Obama could win in some suburban areas in which Barack Obama did badly, even if the message is different. Suburban, middle-class voters have little tolerance for corruption whatever their ethnicity.
PPP showed a poll in which President Obama had an approval rating of 47-51, the 47 being much higher than the percentage of the vote that he got in November. This is in a state in which he never campaigned after the 2008 primary election. Political attitudes may be changing in Texas. If Rick Perry can be linked to specific policies that may have been popular in Texas at one time (such as lax gun laws) but are no longer popular, then a Democrat might have a chance. Rick Perry has kept the statewide bench of Republican pols very weak, so he can't be defeated in the primary. He just might become a sitting duck in the general election.
