Mali 2013

[Famous Mortimer]

Profiles of the main candidates:

Dramane Dembélé (Alliance for Democracy in Mali): Relatively young, unknown candidate of the country's largest, best organized political party, the Alliance for Democracy in Mali (ADEMA). ADEMA ruled the country in the 90s. Their platform is vaguely social democratic/neo-liberal. They came in second in 2002 and backed ATT in 2007. Their original candidate for this election was parliamentary speaker Dioncounda Traoré, who became the current acting president and agreed not to run as part of a peace deal.

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (Rally for Mali): PM during the 90s for the Alliance for Democracy in Mali (ADEMA) party. Formed his own party after ADEMA passed him over for presidential nomination. Came in third in 2002 and then backed ATT in parliament. Later switched to the opposition after ATT hooked up with ADEMA. He came in second in 2007.

Soumaila Cissé (Union for the Republic and Democracy): Finance Minister from the 90s. The ADEMA presidential candidate in 2002. Founded his own party when they wouldn't nominate him again.

Modibo Sidibé (Independent): PM under ATT from 2007 to 2011. ATT loyalist.

Cheick Modibo Diarra (Rally for Development in Mali): Former NASA engineer and head of Microsoft Africa. Was appointed PM after the most recent coup. The military apparently assumed he would be malleable as he's a technocrat with with no strong party behind him. They ended up having to oust him though after he encouraged the African Union to send troops to Northern Mai. The coup leaders opposed this because they are dumb.

Other candidates:

Haïdara Aïchata Cissé (Independent): The only woman running. Labor union official. Member of parliament for a part of Northern Mali recently under rebel control. No chance of winning but she's the type of candidate who would get fawning media coverage in the West if the Western media ever covered Malian politics in any detail.

Niankoro Yeah Samaké (Independent): Mayor of Ouéléssébougou. Notable for being Mormon and raising lots of money from Mormons in the United States. He has no chance because he's Mormon. Mormon.

Tiébilé Dramé (Independent): Former Foreign Minister under ATT's transitional military government in the early 90s. Came in 4th place in the 2002 election. Negotiated half assed peace treaty with northern rebels.

Soumana Sacko (Independent): PM under ATT's transitional military government in the early 90s. Ran for president in 1997 but withdrew as part of opposition boycott.

[Famous Mortimer]

Today.

BBC ran an article saying Modibo Sidibé, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, Cheick Modibo Diarra, and Soumaila Cissé were the main candidates.

Leaving out the ADEMA candidate seems a little odd.

Don't know what they're basing that on.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita came in first. Soumaila Cissé came in second. We're just waiting to see if there will be a run-off or not.

The media is saying that IBK was backed by the military. I wonder why they didn't report that before the election though.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So the military junta is ceding power? Good.

[Famous Mortimer]

Well, not necessarily.

They officially conceded power more than a year ago. They still exist behind the scenes, like I said, they removed a Prime Minister even though they don't actually have any legal authority.

Maybe they were recede even further into the shadows now, maybe they won't.

[Famous Mortimer]

Run-off between IBK and Cisse.

[Famous Mortimer]

Full results from Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malian_presidential_election,_2013

IBK (former ADEMA PM and founder of the Rally for Mali party) 39%
Soumaïla Cissé (former ADEMA finance minister and presidential nominee) 19%
Dramane Dembélé (ADEMA) 10%
Modibo Sidibé (PM under ATT) 5%
Housseini Amion Guindo (MP, former member of IBK's Rally for Mali, owner of a local football club) 5%
Oumar Mariko (left-wing MP who supported the coup) 2%
Choguel Kokalla Maiga (Candidate of the Patriotic Movement for Renewal, the re-named Democratic Union of the Malian People, which was the sole legal party under dictator Moussa Traoré. Also a Minister under ATT) 2%
Cheick Modibo Diarra (Former PM appointed and then removed by the coup leaders, was supposed to be a major candidate) 2%
Jamille Bittar (I know nothing) 2%
Mountaga Tall (MP, perennial candidate) 2%
Moussa Mara (Mayor of Bamako) 1.5%
Mamadou Bakary Sangare (Candidate of the Social Democratic Convention, ran in the last 2 elections and did about the same) 1%
Soumana Sacko (PM under ATT in the 90s) less than 1%
Oumar Ibrahim Touré (Former Agriculture Minister under ATT) less than 1%
Haïdara Aïchata Cissé (lady candidate) less than 1%
Hamed Sow (I know nothing) less than 1%
Yeah Samake (Mormon mayor) less than 1%
...
10 other candidates I don't know anything about
...
Tiebilé Drame (Former ATT Foreign Minister) dead last with only 5000 votes. He came in third in the last election but this time dropped out and called for a boycott.

[Famous Mortimer]

Apparently Cheick Modibo Diarra (again, that's the PM appointed and removed by the coup leaders, who worked for NASA and headed Microsoft Africa) is the son-in-law of former military dictator Moussa Traoré.

I thought I read Traoré had another son running too but maybe I was wrong. If I'm not, it's probably Ousmane Ben Traoré, who has the same last name, it's a common last name though (obviously, it's the current acting president's last name too)

[Sir John Johns]

I thought I read Traoré had another son running too but maybe I was wrong. If I'm not, it's probably Ousmane Ben Traoré, who has the same last name, it's a common last name though (obviously, it's the current acting president's last name too)

This is not Ousmane Ben Fana Traoré, as he is the son of a vice-president of the National Assembly imprisoned for ten years under Moussa Traoré's regime. Ousmane Ben Fana Traoré was also a student leader during the 1991 unrest against Moussa Traoré. He was the candidate of the Parti citoyen pour le Renouveau (Citizen's Party for Revival), which is an observer member of the Liberal International.

The only son of Moussa Traoré running is apparently Cheick Boucadry Traoré which was also a candidate for the 2012 annulled elections. At this time Moussa Traoré endorsed his son-in-law Cheick Modibo Diarra over his own son. Can't find which candidate he endorsed this time (if he endorsed one).

RFI had a webpage (in French) linking to the profiles of the 27 candidates. Only read a few so far, but I can make translations into English if requested.

Dramane Dembélé has announced he will endorse IBK for the run-off because he said "I'm a member of the Socialist International as IBK. We share the same values". At the same time, the ADEMA leadership continues to call to vote for Cissé as both the ADEMA and Cissé's party are part of the anti-coup Front du Refus (FDR). Other presidential candidates calling to vote for IBK are, so far, Mamadou Bakary "Blaise" Sangaré and Choguel Kokalla Maïga (respectively 1.1% and 2.3% in first round). For his part, Jamille Bittar (1.7%) endorsed Cissé. Apparently, all other candidates didn't have endorsed a candidate so far.

According to RFI, IBK won southern Mali (Bamako, Kayes, Kati, Ségou), while Cissé made his best results in northern Mali, especially in Mopti and Timbuktu (he is born in this later city).

[Sir John Johns]

Provisional results by cercles (2nd-level administrative unit) can be found on the retro-style website of the Ministry of Territorial Administration, Decentralization, and Regional Planning on which they are split into two pdf files, or on the more conveniently website aBamako

Map of results so far (I didn't include results in the region of Kidal as they seem to be very incomplete; most notably, only 5 votes are counted for the cercle of Tin-Essako)



IBK won Bamako with 71.38% of the valid votes, an impressive performance. He also won Menaka Cercle with 72.05% but many results are probably still missing here.

Soumaïla Cissé had his best result in the cercle of Niafunké (68.13%), where he was born according to the Francophone Wikipedia (English-language Wikipedia and RFI say he was born in Timbuktu). He is the son of a Songhai father and a Peul mother, which seems to explain why he performed better in the Northern Mali.

Dembélé barely won the Goundam cercle with 37.95% against 37.76% for Cissé. Of course, this could change with the final results.

Guindo is a native of Bandiagara and consequently won this cercle and the neighbouring cercle of Koro. He is apparently a Dogon and performed well in this two Dogon-populated cercles.

No clue about Sibidé and Mariko's respectives performances in Yanfolila and Kolondieba cercles. Sibidé is also, so far, ahead in Kidal (28.72%) and Abeibara (58.04%) but as the counting process is presumably far from being finished in Kidal region, no conclusion should be draw.

[Famous Mortimer]

The 2002 run-off between ATT and Cisse is the only other map I've seen.

That too was a stark divide between ATT in the south and Cisse in the north.

[Sir John Johns]

Oumar Mariko and Housseini Amion Guindo endorsed IBK for the run-off, while Modibo Sidibé called to vote for Cissé.

Oumar Mariko explained he endorsed IBK, as IBK didn't join the anti-coup Front du Refus. Mariko was himself a big supporter of the coup. He is currently on investigation as he is suspected to have ordered the failed attempt of assassination on 30th April 2012 of Hamadoun Traoré (two students died in the attempt), a student leader and opponent to the putschists.

There are allegations that Dembélé, Mariko and Guindo has been pushed by coup leader Captain Sanogo to endorse IBK. However, I don't know if it's a baseless accusation or not.

[Famous Mortimer]

More endorsements for IBK from Moussa Mara, Racine Seydou Thiam, Ousmane Ben Fana Traoré, Sibiry Coumare, Siaka Diarra, Alhousseini Maïga, and Choguel Kokalla Maïga.

http://www.journaldumali.com/article.php?aid=6828

[Famous Mortimer]

Somewhat surprising, Cheick Modibo Diarra has endorsed IBK. Surprising because it puts him on the same side as the military and because IBK is the more economically left-wing candidate.

Cisse did pick up the endorsement of Tiébilé Drame, the former foreign minister who boycotted the first round. Still, Cisse only has 3 endorsements from first round candidates so far. IBK has 21.

Also it looks like IBK is the national unity candidate and Cisse is the extreme levels of autonomy for peace candidate.

[Sir John Johns]

The Constitutional Court proclaimed the definitive results after having rejected the requests of various candidates. Can't find results by cercles so far.

Turnout: 48.98%

Null: 11.65%

IBK 39.79%
Souleïma Cissé 19.7%
Dramane Dembelé 9.71%
Modibo Sidibé 4.97%
Housseini Amion Guindo 4.75%
Oumar Mariko 2.57%
Choguel Kokalla Maïga 2.36%
Cheick Modibo Diarra 2.14%
Jeamille Bittar 1.77%
Mountaga Tall 1.54%
Moussa Mara 1.53%
Mamadou Bakary Sangaré 1.08%

all others under 1%

Ibrahim Ag Mohamed Assaleh, the chief negotiator of the separatist National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), called to a massive vote for IBK (don't pay attention to the exaggerated title). His call contradicts the official position of the MNLA that is it would tolerate the vote without being interested in it. The other leaders of the MNLA seem to be surprised of Assaleh's call despite the fact that Assaleh seems to be considered as a maverick by the Malian newspapers.

Anyway, Assaleh's call is probably useless for IBK as, according this article, the inhabitants of Azawad are indifferent to the vote and prefer protesting for the release of MNLA prisoners. Turnout was very low in the region (12.24% but I don't know if it's the provisional or final result) which could be partly explained by the fact that the vote took place during both the wintering and the Ramadan. Another explanation given by Jeune Afrique is that Tuaregs are reluctant to be searched and forced to take their turbans off by UN peacekeeping force at the entrance of the polling stations.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who is Bittar?

[Sir John Johns]

A businessman, son of an Arab father and a Malinke mother, who founded in 2011 his own movement, the "Union of movements and alliances for the Mali" (lol), after leaving the Party for Economic and Social Development (PDES) one year only after its foundation, to run for the failed 2012 presidential election. The PDES was founded by the supporters of President Amadou Toumani Touré but apparently quicly disintegrated due to personal squabbles (another presidential candidate, Hamed Sow, was a member of the PDES and left it to found his own party). Bittar is also president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, president of the Malian Athletics Federation and a member of the Malian Breeders Association. He had promised to "create 750,000 jobs for young persons and women, in both rural and urban areas, by funding 200,000 projects." And apparently all these jobs would have been created in only five years and in the private sector not in the public administration!

He is a member of the anti-coup Front du Refus and called to vote for Cissé.

[Sir John Johns]

IBK has rejected Cissé's proposal to participate in a TV debate with him.

Can't still find definitive results by circles. It's a shame because I really want to know which candidate won in the Kidal Region. Anyway, a RFI article underlines the quite massive bump of electoral turnout (48.98% against 36.24% in 2008 and 38.31 in 2002). The article also points out that this time the turnout was higher in the South than in the North, a complete reversal of the previous elections.

Based on the provisional results, here the turnout rate by region (2008 in bracket)
Kayes 46.47% (34.48%)
Koulikoro 51.91% (34.83%)
Sikasso 50.91% (36.94%)
Bamako 57.89% (24.50%)
Ségou 50.02% (36.27%)
Mopti 55.34% (47.69%)
Tombouctou 51.40% (55.56%)
Gao: 51.27% (53.82%)
Kidal: 13.85% (52.55%)

Highest participation rates are in the cercles of Bandiagara (63.6%), Tominian (63.36%), Koro (61.5%), and Bankass (60.42%), which roughly correspond to Dogon country.

So it looks like that turnout rise benefited mostly to IBK and Guindo.

[Famous Mortimer]

Run-off today.

Also, another rebel leader came out in support of IBK:

""I am supporting IBK because he has said that he will put together a national dialogue before making a decision on the crisis, while Soumaila Cisse has already declared that he will not give autonomy to northern Mali," said NMLA official Mohamed Ousmane Ag Medoune."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/08/10/mali-vote-keita.html?cmp=rss

I think these rebel leaders supporting IBK are just stupid though. IBK opposed ATT's peace deal with the rebels, he's from the south and has little northern support, and he has the backing of the coup leaders who are obviously anti-autonomy.

Cisse might have said he was against autonomy but if he did, it's pretty transparently him trying to appeal to swing voters. His core supporters know where he really stands.

[Sir John Johns]

Cissé conceaded defeat. He went himself to IBK's house to congratulate him on his electoral victory. Turnout is slightly lower (around 45%), possibly because of heavy rains last Sunday and also probably because there was no big suspense on the outcome.

Earlier in the day, Cissé's campaign manager had however denounced "massive fraud", but only minor incidents had been so far reported.

[Sir John Johns]

The Ministry of Territorial Administration, Decentralization, and Regional Planning has proclaimed the provisional results:

Turnout: 45.78%
Null 3.06%

Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta 77.61%
Soumaïla Cissé 22.39%

Map based on the provisional results by cercles (found here. Of course, results in the Kidal region are probably incomplete (only 4 voters in Tin-Essako). Hope I could made updated maps when the Malian authorities will publish definitive results by cercles.



IBK won 88.75% in Bamako, but his best results (apart of Tin-Essako, where he is credited with 100% of the 4 votes) are Kangaba (90.36%) and Menaka (90.13%).

Cissé only won four cercles, with his best result in Niafunke (74.34%), a small progression compared to first round where he won 68.13%.

In another news, putschist Sanogo has been promoted to the rank of général de corps d'armée (lieutenant general). The move has been criticized by Human Right Watch and suggested that the military will still play a role.

[Famous Mortimer]

IBK won't be sworn in until September 18th. That's quite a long way a way considering I know a lot of African countries swear people in as soon as the results are official.

I wonder who he'll pick as PM.

[Famous Mortimer]

Technocrat PM named Oumar Tatam Ly.

Former Arab (not Tuareg) rebel leader as Foreign Minister.

[Franknburger]

Former Arab (not Tuareg) rebel leader as Foreign Minister.

Diversifying the funding base..