Australia - 7 September 2013

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Vote Sex, get Pauline.



Ewww.

[Smid]

The simplest solution is probably requiring everyone to number all the boxes above the line, but it's still not exactly a simple solution.

The simplest solution I've heard discussed is to impose a threshold, probably 4% (since that's the public financing threshold, might as well be consistent). Any group not receiving this threshold is excluded from the count as the first step, and their preferences distributed to groups with greater than 4%, then declaring candidates elected, distributing preferences, etc. Although this would not stop micro-parties from sending their preferences to the "wrong" party (like the Sex Party preferencing Hanson, despite what most of their voters would probably want), but at least they wouldn't be electing candidates with 1% or 1.5% the way they have been doing in Victoria the past couple of elections.

The second simplest solution I've heard discussed is probably to have preferential voting Above-the-Line, where your "1" goes to the first candidate of that group, and continues through that ticket, before being transferred to the first candidate in the group receiving your "2" and continuing through that ticket, etc. Unlike the first option, a micro-party receiving less than 4% could still be elected this way, but only if voters actually preferenced them according to their own preferences, rather than through inter-party deals.

I guess you could also have a combination of the two methods above - where voters have to preference ATL, but also excluding candidates who fail to reach a threshold.

EDIT: Oh, I see that second point was your solution. I had misread your initial post as reverting back to BTL voting.

[morgieb]

Vote Sex, get Pauline.



Ewww.

At least she's a woman....lol.

[YL]

Why not abandon the compulsory full preferencing and the above the line option and use Irish-style STV?  I'm not aware of the sort of odd results the Australian senate has had (I presume the concern is caused by things like the DLP getting in because of preference deals on a low first preference vote) happening in Irish elections.

Why are the Sex Party preferencing Hanson?

[Smid]

I'm not aware of the sort of odd results the Australian senate has had (I presume the concern is caused by things like the DLP getting in because of preference deals on a low first preference vote) happening in Irish elections.

Yeah, 2004, Family First had a Senator elected, with about 1.5% of the vote. 2010, the DLP had a Senator elected with 1% or 1.5% of the vote. This discussion is because, with fairly realistic vote figures for the micro-parties, and Hanson receiving 2% of the vote, she could also realistically be elected. Likewise for the First Nations Party in the Northern Territory (so long as they poll more than a couple of percent less than they received in the Territorial election, if I remember correctly).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Hanson got about... 2.5% of the vote, but no one was really preferencing her, so she dropped off pretty quickly. But she's getting preferences (LITERALLY) left, right and centre.

[Platypus]

The LDP is also in the same situaion - even reducing their vote from 2010 by a fifth, they won that last spot in NSW, but it involved Pauline Hanson dropping out with about 12 to go. The LDP is in position A on the ballot, and Pauline Hanson is on the opposite side, so who knows what could happen?

The one state I haven't used the calculator on so far is QLD, cos I have no idea what kind of percentages to give Katter and Palmer. I'm thinking about 5% for Katter and 4% for Palmer, but it could easily be 9% and 1%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Frankly QLD is both the critical element and the one we have least ability to predict

[RogueBeaver]

More constituency polling: Coalition wave in Western Sydney, per Newspoll. We'll have to see what's right: constituency or national.

[RogueBeaver]

Coalition hints [url=http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/john-laws-questions-therese-rein-on-not-being-a-rudd-20130829-2st9q.html]they'll look favourably on Roy Hill and Laws asks Rein a moronic question.[/url]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More constituency polling: Coalition wave in Western Sydney, per Newspoll. We'll have to see what's right: constituency or national.

Is 'Western Sydney' just being just as a catch-all term for 'potentially endangered Labor seats in Sydney' these days? Though - and to take the pedantry in a different direction - that sort of poll is not constituency or national; it's called a marginals poll.

[RogueBeaver]

The Economist endorses Labor, if somewhat incoherently. ALP finger-pointing has begun.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

More constituency polling: Coalition wave in Western Sydney, per Newspoll. We'll have to see what's right: constituency or national.

One thing that is less reliable than constituency polling, it's clumping 5 radically different seats together and polling them as one entity.

[morgieb]

More constituency polling: Coalition wave in Western Sydney, per Newspoll. We'll have to see what's right: constituency or national.

Poor sample sizes and all the polls are jumbled together. I would call it what krazen likes to refer to as a 'junk poll'.

[Smid]

The biggest issue facing voters in Kennedy is not the live cattle export ban, not the carbon tax nor mining tax, not cost of living pressures or the economy. The biggest issue facing voters in Kennedy is the conversion of indigenous Australians to Islam, so believes the Rise Up Australia Party candidate.

[Platypus]

Forgot about Tassie. 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Family First just edging out Labor for the sixth spot. Doesn't seem right, but there you go

OK, QLD senate... eep.

LNP-Labor-LNP-Family First-Labor-Greens

One Nation boosted FF over Palmer United, which then boosted them to just a dash under Katter's Australian Party. Various small parties which had gone to the Sex Party split into Greens and FF, putting FF above Blundell for KAP. When Fishing and Lifestyle preferenced the LNP instead of Katter, there was no room left and Blundell was excluded, despite a reasonable whack of the votes that had been collected by Fishing and Lifestyle ending up on his side, quite a lot more went to FF, just enough to pop them over the LNP's third quota, although they actually got elected on the back of Katter's Australia Party being knocked off.

Labor sat just under a second quota for an age, and once FF was elected they only got around a quarter of the votes distributed by the collected preferences of FF, but it was enough to get them in. The greens also got about a quarter, and slipped in against the LNP for the final spot without the 0.7% surplus quota for Labor having to be distributed.

So all up, I think we ended up with:

WA:

3 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Green

NT:

1 CLP
1 ALP

SA:

2 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Independent
1 Green

TAS:

2 Labor
2 Liberal
1 Green
1 Family First

VIC:

2 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Motoring Enthusiast
1 Green

NSW:

2 Liberal
2 Labor
1 Green
1 Liberal Democrat

ACT:

1 Labor
1 Green

QLD:

2 LNP
2 Labor
1 Family First
1 Green

So,

14 Labor
13 Coalition
7 Green
2 Family First
1 Liberal Democrat
1 Motoring Enthusiast
1 Independent

There's no way that can be accurate, surely?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The biggest issue facing voters in Kennedy is not the live cattle export ban, not the carbon tax nor mining tax, not cost of living pressures or the economy. The biggest issue facing voters in Kennedy is the conversion of indigenous Australians to Islam, so believes the Rise Up Australia Party candidate.

RUA are just disgusting... they're One Nation 2.0...

And this costing debacle... my God... I said to a colleague that it reminds me of so much Labor has done over the last six years, great idea but executed terribly. While I agree with Rudd that the media actually missed the point and is focusing on this over the failure of the LNP to submit any policies by the PBO deadline... once you turn on the media as a whole... you're kind of done.

[RogueBeaver]

Richo has a similar take to yours, Polnut.  He blames Gillard but also suggests Rudd's leaks were to blame for the minority. I do agree with you on the media.

So, any bets on who'll run for Labor leader? Also, do any Laborites here think the switch was a bad idea?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Um... it really depends on the size of the loss. If it's 10-15 seats... that's certainly re-claimable - so you need a strong performer there from day one, like an Albanese, with Bowen as deputy.

Once you get beyond 16-20 (which I do see as kind of the upper limit) then that's a two-term strategy ... there will be blood-letting, it will probably get INTENSELY ugly. So... throw Shorten up there as the sacrifical lamb while they get their act in gear.

Under NO circumstances can Wong be moved from the Senate leadership...

[Smid]

The biggest issue facing voters in Kennedy is not the live cattle export ban, not the carbon tax nor mining tax, not cost of living pressures or the economy. The biggest issue facing voters in Kennedy is the conversion of indigenous Australians to Islam, so believes the Rise Up Australia Party candidate.

RUA are just disgusting... they're One Nation 2.0...

The article reminded me a bit of the Hobo Orgy Guy and Blondie story... particularly the bit about how if the first people on the land convert, the whole nation is automatically islamic or something...

[GAworth]

I was having way to much fun on the Senate Election Calculator, in NT, if AFNPP gets around 5% of the first preferences then they could surpass the ALP and Greens, it seems that everyone preferences AFNPP over the Greens, when Greens are eliminated, their preferences go to AFNPP so AFNPP will get elected. As long as Labor gets below 33.34%. Got to love how the Aussie Senate works.

[morgieb]

So, any bets on who'll run for Labor leader? Also, do any Laborites here think the switch was a bad idea?

Again, depends on the margin of defeat.

A close one, we should put up our best player. Should be someone like Albanese and Plibersek, but I think the Right will call for someone like Bowen or Shorten.

A larger one, it would be wise to put up a more experienced, stabilising figure....someone like Wayne Swan perhaps.

Should however the election look like a blow-out...who knows. Shorten perhaps.

[YL]

"Motoring Enthusiast"?

A double dissolution election would see 12 Senate seats contested in each state, right?  Who would get in then?

[morgieb]

"Motoring Enthusiast"?

A double dissolution election would see 12 Senate seats contested in each state, right?  Who would get in then?

Who knows. The quota is half the number of the general election, so there's a strong possibility of heaps of minor parties getting up.

But even in a half-Senate election it is possible that a lot of minor parties get up.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, the ABC has that infamous "Vote Compass" that the CBC keeps pushing on us here?

At least I'm used to it. I got the Greens. No surprise. Surprised it only has 3 parties, they usually have more listed in Canada.


Oh, and the Aussie Senate election is a joke. I didn't realize parties got to pick the preferences. If I were a voter, I would be one of the a$$holes who ranked all 90+ candidates below the line.