Australia - 7 September 2013

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

New England (IND 21.5% vs NAT)
Easy National gain.
 
Newcastle (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain, although a big swing could be on the cards.
 
North Sydney (LIB 14.1%)
Liberal retain.
 
O’Connor (WAN 3.6% vs LIB)
With Tony Crook bowing out after one term, the result here will depend on the quality of the National and Liberal candidates. My guess is a National hold.
 
Oxley (ALP 5.8%)
After Griffith, the seat Labor are most likely to hold in Queensland, and they should hold here.

Page (ALP 4.2%)
Key contest, if I had to choose, narrow National gain.
 
Parkes (NAT 18.9%)
National retain.
 
Parramatta (ALP 4.4%)
Key seat, and probably the hardest Sydney seat to predict. At the moment, Liberal gain, but with no confidence.
 
Paterson (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Pearce (LIB 8.9%)
Liberal retain.
 
Perth (ALP 5.9%)
With Allanah MacTiernan as the new Labor candidate, Labor retain.
 
Petrie (ALP 2.5%)
Pure toss-up, especially with Rudd’s return and its small swing in 2010.
 
Port Adelaide (ALP 21.0%)
Labor retain.

Rankin (ALP 5.4%)
Likely Labor hold.
 
Reid (ALP 2.7%)
Likely Liberal gain.
 
Richmond (ALP 7.0%)
Harder to win than Page, this could go National in 2013, although my guess is a narrow Labor retain.
 
Riverina (NAT 18.2%)
National retain.
 
Robertson (ALP 1.0%)
Likely Liberal gain.
 
Ryan (LNP 7.2%)
LNP retain.

Scullin (ALP 20.6%)
Labor retain.
 
Shortland (ALP 12.9%)
Labor retain, this would be Liberal held on state figures though.
 
Solomon (CLP 1.8%)
CLP retain.
 
Stirling (LIB 5.6%)
Liberal retain.
 
Sturt (LIB 3.6%)
Liberal retain, likely with a significantly increased majority.
 
Swan (LIB 2.5%)
Liberal retain.
 
Sydney (ALP 17.1%)
Labor retain.

Tangney (LIB 12.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Thorsby (ALP 12.1%)
Labor retain.

Wakefield (ALP 10.5%)
Like Makin and Kingston, the margin in Wakefield is quite inflated, and could swing back to the Liberals significantly in 2013. Hard to call at this stage, although Labor retain for now.
 
Wannon (LIB 5.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Warringah (LIB 13.1%)
Liberal retain.
 
Watson (ALP 9.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Wentworth (LIB 14.9%)
Liberal retain.
 
Werriwa (ALP 6.8%)
The fact that Werriwa is a possibility of a Liberal pickup highlights the problems Labor have had in New South Wales recently, although Werriwa should stay Labor barring an upset.

Wide Bay (LNP 15.6%)
LNP retain.
 
Wills (ALP 23.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Wright (LNP 10.2%)
LNP retain.
  
SUMMARY OF PREDICTIONS
Labor: 54
Coalition: 92
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 0
Tossup: 2

[Smid]

I've updated the blank map:

2013 Australian Commonwealth Electoral Boundaries


Obviously it's in the Gallery. The relevant changes are: inset maps updated to include parts of electorates surrounding Perth, Sydney/Newcastle/Illawarra, and South-East Queensland (this is something that I am doing on new inset maps, such as the redistributed Melbourne and Adelaide, but I had not yet included it for insets in states where there had been no redistribution). Posters will recall that the previous inset maps just included complete electorates, surrounding 'partial' electorates were not included in the insets.

I have also removed the WA Nationals as a separate colour tone. Despite not sitting in the Coalition Party Room/Caucus, I believe they are organisationally affiliated with the National Party, and it is probably more correct to categorise them thus. The LNP is affiliated with the federal Liberal Party, so I have also included the Qld LNP as the same colour scheme as the Liberal Party in other states, regardless of where individual members caucus.

Thoughts and comments?

I intend to have a new pre-2013 (ie. 2010, notionally adjusted for redistributions in Vic and SA) up shortly.

Edit:

2013 Pre-Election Map/2010 Federal Election Map with Notional Margins in Redistributed States


Obviously 2CP.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I've updated the blank map:

2013 Australian Commonwealth Electoral Boundaries


Obviously it's in the Gallery. The relevant changes are: inset maps updated to include parts of electorates surrounding Perth, Sydney/Newcastle/Illawarra, and South-East Queensland (this is something that I am doing on new inset maps, such as the redistributed Melbourne and Adelaide, but I had not yet included it for insets in states where there had been no redistribution). Posters will recall that the previous inset maps just included complete electorates, surrounding 'partial' electorates were not included in the insets.

I have also removed the WA Nationals as a separate colour tone. Despite not sitting in the Coalition Party Room/Caucus, I believe they are organisationally affiliated with the National Party, and it is probably more correct to categorise them thus. The LNP is affiliated with the federal Liberal Party, so I have also included the Qld LNP as the same colour scheme as the Liberal Party in other states, regardless of where individual members caucus.

Thoughts and comments?

I intend to have a new pre-2013 (ie. 2010, notionally adjusted for redistributions in Vic and SA) up shortly.

Edit:

2013 Pre-Election Map/2010 Federal Election Map with Notional Margins in Redistributed States


Obviously 2CP.

The maps look good Smid, and it does make sense to have one National Party colour tone, it could always be re-used for Palmer's party, should they win any seats tomorrow.

I also assume the CLP shares the same colour as the Liberals and LNP?

[Hifly]

Apparently Rudd was campaigning in Chifley earlier today! I kid you not.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Apparently Rudd was campaigning in Chifley earlier today! I kid you not.

Are you serious? I don't think Chifley will go blue, but still... you would think he would have gone to Greenway instead.

[Platypus]

No, Labor are staying out of Greenway and keeping schtum. They want the seat to be alllllll about Diaz.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PREDICTION

Current Parliament…
ALP: 71 LNP: 72 IND: 5 GRN: 1 KAP: 1

IND -> LNP
-   Lyne, NSW
-   New England, NSW
-   Fisher, QLD
-   Dobell, NSW

LNP -> IND
-   Indi, VIC

ALP -> LNP
-   Banks, NSW
-   Barton, NSW
-   Lindsay, NSW
-     Parramatta, NSW
-   Reid, NSW
-   Robertson, NSW
-   Greenway, NSW
-       Werriwa, NSW
-   Corrangamite, VIC
-   LaTrobe, VIC
-   Bass, TAS
-   Braddon, TAS
-       Blair, QLD
-       Petrie, QLD

LNP -> ALP
-   Solomon, NT

GRN -> ALP
-   Melbourne, VIC

New Parliament
ALP: 60 (net -11)
LNP: 87 (net +15)
KAP: 1 (nc)
GRN: 0 (buh bye)
IND: 2 (net -3)

[Hifly]

No, Labor are staying out of Greenway and keeping schtum. They want the seat to be alllllll about Diaz.

I think this is bullsh**t. Labor activists have been campaigning in this seat everyday.

[Platypus]

Well, obviously, but I mean in terms of the key labor figures.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So looks like there is no hope left?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So looks like there is no hope left?

For a win? Not a chance... well, a microscopic one. The chance to make is 'respectable' it's decent.

[Leftbehind]

Tony f**king Abbott.

[Platypus]

IKR?

[You kip if you want to...]

Tony f**king Abbott.

Tony Abbott though?

[RogueBeaver]

Hawke has faith in Rudd, but also says Labor's record is mixed and that the election should've been sooner.

Final Nielsen: 54/46. Guess the final Newspoll will be out in a couple of hours.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of said Newspoll, PVO previewed it on Twitter by saying "my oh my oh my." Since everyone else is saying 53 or 54 Coalition, presumably either showing a swing back to Lab or a double digit Coalition lead.

[Platypus]

Not particularly important, or reliable, but the Guardian Lonergan poll is 50.8-49.2.

Anyway, we're at the point that anyone who predicts the coalition with less than 80 or more than 90 is probably a hack

[morgieb]

Speaking of said Newspoll, PVO previewed it on Twitter by saying "my oh my oh my." Since everyone else is saying 53 or 54 Coalition, presumably either showing a swing back to Lab or a double digit Coalition lead.

I reckon he's probably trolling. But I reckon it's the latter.

[Smid]

Guardian poll excluded landlines, which is probably as inaccurate as excluding mobiles, like those ReachTel polls did...

Anyway, best and most creative thing in the campaign: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2rTJc36mlU&sns=em

[Platypus]

I thought this was pretty good too:

howfastisthenbn.com.au

[RogueBeaver]

Shorten is a near-lock for Oppo Leader. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PVO was being a smug prick as usual... it's completely unchanged from Monday 54-46

[RogueBeaver]

I'm more interested in seats (specifically MacKerras/Green's predictions) anyways, 2PP's just a number. Here's why PVO said what he did: The Oz is predicting a Coalition gain of 22-32 seats.

[lilTommy]

Guardian poll excluded landlines, which is probably as inaccurate as excluding mobiles, like those ReachTel polls did...

Anyway, best and most creative thing in the campaign: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2rTJc36mlU&sns=em

Its hilarious to me that the "conservative" party is using a song written as if it were sung by french republicans (overly left-wing) Oh the irony

Might have been mentioned earlier on but, this vid of Rudd eviscerating a pastor has gone viral up here (north america) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/03/australian-prime-minister-gay-marriage_n_3860113.html

 

[Keystone Phil]

Ok so what times do the polls close EDT (I think I read earlier in this thread that it's 4 AM my time)? When will real results start coming in? When are Tony Abbott's daughters expected to declare victory?