Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

4 AM EDT as you said. House results within 30 minutes, speeches within 2-3 hours. Senate could take longer.

[Platypus]

Very, very proud of my cousin. Went and waited in line for 80 minutes to vote for Cathy McGowan in Indi at the Australian High Commission in Singapore.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If things happen as they're expected to ... you'd expect to wait for the WA seats to start counting do I'd expect 9:30pm at the earliest for speeches (7:30am USEST) ... probably wont get indicative results from the eastern states until 7pm (5am USEST)

[Platypus]

As for Senate, expect to wait days, maybe weeks

[RogueBeaver]

How Rudd blew it. QLD seats to watch.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen did a stand-alone poll of QLD only 3 days ago and had them at 53-47 (2% swing from 2010) ... I'm still really really uneasy about the methodologies being used to deal with PUP/KAP...

There are going to be some WEIRD preference flows that I honestly don't think the polls are picking up ...

[Hatman 🍁]

Contemplating getting up early. Might not be wise; my daughter's birthday party is at 11AM.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So for us central Europeans polls will close at 10 am? Sweet! Looking forward to having something do watch while making my Saturday cleaning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time is that over here?

[Keystone Phil]

What sort of time is that over here?

You don't know what time it would be in the British Isles when it's 4 AM EDT? And this guy is constantly on an intellectual superiority kick...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time is that over here?

You don't know what time it would be in the British Isles when it's 4 AM EDT? And this guy is constantly on an intellectually superiority kick...

Am I? Besides, I've never pretended to be anything other than vaguely scared of numbers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, looks like a swing in the region of 2pts to 4pts, give or take the usual. Comparison is a good thing, so here bist the swings at government-changing elections:

2007 - 5.4
1996 - 5.1
1983 - 3.6
1975 - 7.4
1972 - 2.5
1949 - 5.1

So if the national polls are correct, this will be a fairly 'normal' government changing election, with a swing perhaps a little on the low side (but that's partly because the government is not defending a majority).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What sort of time is that over here?

9 am

[RogueBeaver]

Taiwanese animators are hilarious as usual.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time is that over here?

9 am

Most excellent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, just looking at things from a very basic point of view: there are fourteen Labor seats with 2PP margins under 4%. So it seems reasonable to take a loss of around about fourteen seats as 'par', presuming the polls are correct.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What sort of time is that over here?

9 am

So I'll be sleeping while the early results come in...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What sort of time is that over here?

9 am

So I'll be sleeping while the early results come in...

Or you could wake up specially. Australian election nights are always fun, even if they don't go your way.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What sort of time is that over here?

9 am

So I'll be sleeping while the early results come in...

Well France and the UK aren't in the same time zones. It's 10 am for the Central Europe time zone. Even a teenager should be able to be up by then.  

[lilTommy]

http://dontbeaingidiot.com/

seems about right

[minionofmidas]

Teddy's predicting a 97-50-3 result.

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It was 96 years ago, but a Labor shutout in WA has once happened before.
Also once a Labor clean sweep, in 1943.

Somewhat surprisingly, the same cannot be said of South Australia, which has never seen a clean sweep (nor have Vic, NSW and Qld).

[Oakvale]

Is anyone else unable to fathom that, barring some kind of catastrophic polling failure, Tony Abbott is actually going to become Prime Minister of Australia shortly? This is surreal.

I might take a look at some of the early results since for some inhumane reason I'll actually be up early enough tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Again, to give some indication of something... in 2007 the swing was 5.4%. Five seats had swings twice that or above (10.8%) and I think about a further five also had double digit swings. Against that, only five seats swung the wrong way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is anyone else unable to fathom that, barring some kind of catastrophic polling failure, Tony Abbott is actually going to become Prime Minister of Australia shortly? This is surreal.

It's a bit strange, but no stranger than Howard becoming such in 1996. We then just got used to his presence, but the very idea would have been (was) laughable a few years earlier.

[Hifly]

What's the chance that Fowler, NSW could swing towards Labor at this election?