Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Lab leadership is Shorten's if Albo doesn't run. The new Parliament won't convene till November, so plenty of time to sort this out.

[RogueBeaver]

Albo is leaning towards letting Shorten be acclaimed. Also, Gillard will give live interviews in a few weeks.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Shorten has announced his intention to seek the leadership - the expectation is that if Shorten is acclaimed, Plibersek will be made deputy.

[RogueBeaver]

I assume the Liberals will have their ads up soon enough. Predefinition and all that. At any rate, no surprise that Shorten's being acclaimed.

SMH editorializes for Rudd's departure from politics.

[Smid]

I assume the Liberals will have their ads up soon enough. Predefinition and all that. At any rate, no surprise that Shorten's being acclaimed.

SMH editorializes for Rudd's departure from politics.

We don't tend to run political ads in Australia, outside an election campaign (the exceptions being YouTube ads, and the Lawrence Springborg ad, the Nats ran in Queensland to try to get some positive momentum happening).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Australians would get pretty irritated with blatant political advertising in non-election periods.

[You kip if you want to...]

So, with Rudd out and Abbott in, will there be any sign of an uptick for Dan Andrews and Jay Weatherill in Victoria and South Australia?

[Knives]

Really, Victoria is the only election upcoming were Labor are looking good. Napthine is not very well liked and Ballieu was almost hated.

[Smid]

As a principle, I don't comment on Victorian state politics, but I disagree with your assessment of the Premier.

A few separate rumours reported on the tv news (citing rumours reported in papers):

1. Albanese apparently told Shorten he will challenge for the leadership;
2. Sen. Conroy says (interview last night, I think) that he has changed his mind about the backbench and would like another frontbench position;
3. Sen. Conroy also says the new Labor leadership rules would make the party a "laughing stock" for having no leader for a month, and that caucus should vote to change the rules back to just caucus voting on the leadership;
4. Unspecified sources say Shorten has the numbers in the caucus for the leadership, but Albanese has the numbers among rank and file members.

I guess from this, we can conclude that Sen. Conroy is backing Shorten, and sending a strong message that he is, and that he expects a portfolio as a thank you...

[Knives]

Well I live there so...

I'm not saying either side is popular though, I'm saying atm the election could go any way.

[You kip if you want to...]

A spill in Victorian Labour wouldn't be shocking, would it? Andrews seems like a dud.

[Platypus]

Andrews has very little media profile, but quite frankly the opposition in Victoria never does. There's about 5 minutes total airtime on TV available to state politicians every week, and unless there's been a major  up almost all of it will go to the Premier or the Lord Mayor or Melbourne.

-----------------

Conroy is basically a factional warlord who hates the idea of the party membership getting a say and him losing part of his ridiculous amount of power. Sometimes I admire Conroy, but on this issue he's being an absolute turd.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

So, with Rudd out and Abbott in, will there be any sign of an uptick for Dan Andrews and Jay Weatherill in Victoria and South Australia?

As Solopop said, Victorian Labor are in a position where they could win government come next November, for quite a while before the federal election. Still too close to call this far out, but Labor have a decent chance of winning.

South Australia is less likely, as it's difficult to win a third term of government there, let alone a fourth. The last government in SA to win a fourth term was Don Dunstan's Labor government in 1977, and the terms were only 3 years back then.

Tasmania, the other state with a state election next year, will, barring some massive blunder, go Liberal. As I like to say, if nothing else topples a government, fatigue does.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fatigue won't be the reason for the change of government in Tasmania.

[RogueBeaver]

PVO on the Senate.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Emerson's jumping the shark here.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think Emerson's jumping the shark here.

The shark was jumped a long time ago... Emerson and Ferguson are right, Rudd needs to be a quiet backbencher from now on, and I can see him retiring in 2016.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

[RogueBeaver]

Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

With caucus supporting one and grassroots supporting another, apparently.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I know who I'll be voting for

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

With caucus supporting one and grassroots supporting another, apparently.

If Shorten becomes leader, I can't see him leading Labor to the 2016 election. I see him more as a Brendan Nelson style leader, i.e. you would find him in the dictionary under "stopgap leader".

[morgieb]

I think Emerson's jumping the shark here.

I guess Craig Emerson thinks that Kevin Rudd's leadership was a horror movie. It shocked him right out of his brain.

[You kip if you want to...]

Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

With caucus supporting one and grassroots supporting another, apparently.

If Shorten becomes leader, I can't see him leading Labor to the 2016 election. I see him more as a Brendan Nelson style leader, i.e. you would find him in the dictionary under "stopgap leader".

The new rules mean that the new leader cant just be dumped though, right?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

With caucus supporting one and grassroots supporting another, apparently.

If Shorten becomes leader, I can't see him leading Labor to the 2016 election. I see him more as a Brendan Nelson style leader, i.e. you would find him in the dictionary under "stopgap leader".

The new rules mean that the new leader cant just be dumped though, right?

I'm not sure, one of the Laborites here might know though.

[Smid]

Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

With caucus supporting one and grassroots supporting another, apparently.

If Shorten becomes leader, I can't see him leading Labor to the 2016 election. I see him more as a Brendan Nelson style leader, i.e. you would find him in the dictionary under "stopgap leader".

Completely agree.

There was a time when he worried me, back in the days before he was elected... He seemed media savvy in those days and I could see him becoming a Hawke-esque leader and PM, popular, with the common touch. Since then, he has been quite the failure.