Australia - 7 September 2013

[Hifly]

At any rate, the momentum towards marriage equality across the western world is now so fast and so unstoppable - I give Australia 2 or 3 years at most and then Aussies won't want to feel like they are to gay-equality like what South Africa was to civil rights in the 1980s and it will quickly become a fait accompli...and 5 years from now, people will be embarrassed that it took them so long to get with the program.

Let's just make one thing clear, countries in which gay marriage isn't allowed are not akin to apartheid South Africa. Full stop.

You would not say that if you were Gay. In essence, Gays are lucky they cannot be pointed out with a physical difference you can count on like skin colour. 
But they are second class citizens if rights available to others are not provided to them based solely on that one criteria. If like in Russia, they have laws designed specifically to take rights away from them or like in many 1st world countires, can't have rights extended to them.

If the ALP were two parties, i think you'd see more politicians in favour of socially progressive movements. I believe the Greens are in favour of SSM, wasn't Bob Brown a big proponent?

 

The decision to have carnal knowledge of someone of the same gender as yourself is not equivalent to being born with a certain colour of skin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would strongly suggest that if participants wish to discuss the rights and wrongs of gay marriage (or gay rights generally), that they do it elsewhere. Thank you.

[lilTommy]

At any rate, the momentum towards marriage equality across the western world is now so fast and so unstoppable - I give Australia 2 or 3 years at most and then Aussies won't want to feel like they are to gay-equality like what South Africa was to civil rights in the 1980s and it will quickly become a fait accompli...and 5 years from now, people will be embarrassed that it took them so long to get with the program.

Let's just make one thing clear, countries in which gay marriage isn't allowed are not akin to apartheid South Africa. Full stop.

You would not say that if you were Gay. In essence, Gays are lucky they cannot be pointed out with a physical difference you can count on like skin colour. 
But they are second class citizens if rights available to others are not provided to them based solely on that one criteria. If like in Russia, they have laws designed specifically to take rights away from them or like in many 1st world countires, can't have rights extended to them.

If the ALP were two parties, i think you'd see more politicians in favour of socially progressive movements. I believe the Greens are in favour of SSM, wasn't Bob Brown a big proponent?

 

The decision to have carnal knowledge of someone of the same gender as yourself is not equivalent to being born with a certain colour of skin.

Both you are born with, both you cannot change and both you are judged by... they seem to equate to me.
THANK YOU... this began to degenerate

Has SSM become the primary question the electorate is focused on? (as much as we are) what have become the big issues?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Has SSM become the primary question the electorate is focused on?

Certainly not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To push things back on track, I'll just repeat meself...

To point out the obvious, though it's quite obvious that everyone is already thinking this: there is no way that the published national polls and these robo-seat polls can both be accurate. Past performance and the Antique Monk doth strongly suggest which of the two realities is the real one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At any rate, the momentum towards marriage equality across the western world is now so fast and so unstoppable - I give Australia 2 or 3 years at most and then Aussies won't want to feel like they are to gay-equality like what South Africa was to civil rights in the 1980s and it will quickly become a fait accompli...and 5 years from now, people will be embarrassed that it took them so long to get with the program.

Let's just make one thing clear, countries in which gay marriage isn't allowed are not akin to apartheid South Africa. Full stop.

You would not say that if you were Gay. In essence, Gays are lucky they cannot be pointed out with a physical difference you can count on like skin colour. 
But they are second class citizens if rights available to others are not provided to them based solely on that one criteria. If like in Russia, they have laws designed specifically to take rights away from them or like in many 1st world countires, can't have rights extended to them.

If the ALP were two parties, i think you'd see more politicians in favour of socially progressive movements. I believe the Greens are in favour of SSM, wasn't Bob Brown a big proponent?

 

The decision to have carnal knowledge of someone of the same gender as yourself is not equivalent to being born with a certain colour of skin.

You're a very angry little man, not the least bit being wrong.

As a whole, the Union Movement could give a toss about 'family values' - there are two or three powerful union leaders who basically think like you - closed-minded bigots, who command their membership to do their bidding.

This election is not about this issue and the outcome will have little to do with it. And I won't speak on the issue in here again.

[RogueBeaver]

Moving on, Rudd's throwing $500 million at the auto industry. Some discussion on the role that religion plays for the 2 leaders.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh crap... not religion... gah

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Thanks be to God... a real poll

Galaxy

Primary
ALP: 36% (-2)
LNP: 45% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 48% (-1)
LNP: 52% (+1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And while certainly not good, it has clearly not been taken in the same universe as those robodivisionalpolls.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I spoke to a couple of people who are pretty engaged on both sides. I mentioned the robo polls they ALL laughed and said they bear no resemblance to what they're seeing. But the ALPers are worried about them influencing the narrative too much. They know the campaign can't call out these polls.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 34% (-1)
LNP: 47%  (+1)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 46% (-2)
LNP: 54% (+2)

On these numbers, Abbott would have to be near level-pegging as preferred PM. 3-4 off the pace AT BEST. EDIT: it's 2% 43-41% - with Abbott at -10 approval and Rudd at -19.

The Greens PV is the most intersting to me... where did it go? Lol

Now we should get Essential and Morgan tomorrow ... It'll be intersting to see if they line up... but it seems the wheels are coming off the wagon... it's funny I wonder how Gillard would have fought this election.

[Hifly]

Have the other leaders debates been sorted out yet?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There's a forum, town-hall style on Wednesday night.

[RogueBeaver]

Doesn't surprise me. Fundamentals have now reasserted themselves, but Rudd was reinstalled to save furniture.

[You kip if you want to...]

Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 34% (-1)
LNP: 47%  (+1)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 46% (-2)
LNP: 54% (+2)

On these numbers, Abbott would have to be near level-pegging as preferred PM. 3-4 off the pace AT BEST. EDIT: it's 2% 43-41% - with Abbott at -10 approval and Rudd at -19.

The Greens PV is the most intersting to me... where did it go? Lol

Now we should get Essential and Morgan tomorrow ... It'll be intersting to see if they line up... but it seems the wheels are coming off the wagon... it's funny I wonder how Gillard would have fought this election.

Gillard probably could've got 45-46.

It seems the voters just want rid of Labor.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 34% (-1)
LNP: 47%  (+1)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 46% (-2)
LNP: 54% (+2)

On these numbers, Abbott would have to be near level-pegging as preferred PM. 3-4 off the pace AT BEST. EDIT: it's 2% 43-41% - with Abbott at -10 approval and Rudd at -19.

The Greens PV is the most intersting to me... where did it go? Lol

Now we should get Essential and Morgan tomorrow ... It'll be intersting to see if they line up... but it seems the wheels are coming off the wagon... it's funny I wonder how Gillard would have fought this election.

Gillard probably could've got 45-46.

It seems the voters just want rid of Labor.

Still 19 days to go, you don't know what will happen.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Newspoll

Primary
ALP: 34% (-1)
LNP: 47%  (+1)
Greens: 9% (-2)

TPP
ALP: 46% (-2)
LNP: 54% (+2)

On these numbers, Abbott would have to be near level-pegging as preferred PM. 3-4 off the pace AT BEST. EDIT: it's 2% 43-41% - with Abbott at -10 approval and Rudd at -19.

The Greens PV is the most intersting to me... where did it go? Lol

Now we should get Essential and Morgan tomorrow ... It'll be intersting to see if they line up... but it seems the wheels are coming off the wagon... it's funny I wonder how Gillard would have fought this election.

Gillard probably could've got 45-46.

It seems the voters just want rid of Labor.

Still 19 days to go, you don't know what will happen.

Keating did come back from a bigger gap during the campaign... but ...

Morgan is out too...

Primary
ALP: 36.5% (NC)
LNP: 44.5% (+1)
Greens: 9.5% (-1)

TPP (self-allocated)
ALP: 49% (-1)
LNP: 51% (+1)

TPP (based on 2010 flows)
ALP: 48% (-0.5)
LNP: 52% (+0.5)

...so Morgan is marrying up with Galaxy, and Newspoll seems to be out on it's own. Damn it!! I want a Nielsen Poll because if Newspoll and Morgan are in disagreement, Nielsen is where I look.

[morgieb]

It's interesting. Some polls we are seeing are saying Labor is down, but not in a horrible position, but others are saying that Labor will get flogged.

I have my questions over the robopollsters, but Newspoll doesn't sound too good.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's interesting. Some polls we are seeing are saying Labor is down, but not in a horrible position, but others are saying that Labor will get flogged.

I have my questions over the robopollsters, but Newspoll doesn't sound too good.

The issue, as my ALP friends noted over the weekend, the robopolls aren't being analysed or even questioned in the media, they're just being accepted because the "OMG Labor IZ in troublz!!!" storyline is too good. The other concerns is even IF Essential shows the same as Galaxy and Morgan at 52-48... Newspoll will get the attention.

Rudd can rescue the situation, but as David Marr and others said on Insiders yesterday, he has to look like he's fighting for it. Yesterday's speech in Sydney was first time I've really seen fire or passion from him during the campaign. If he hits the LNP on costings, on the parental-leave scheme etc etc and has the balls to run on Gonski AND the NDIS and not run from them as "too Gillardish"... he can get things back into some kind of order. Can he win? More than likely not, especially if Newspoll is to be believed, but if the others are closer to reality (as the party people on both sides tell me) then he can give Abbott a fight.

The increased focus on the Senate preferences is very, very interesting.

[Vosem]

So, what with a lot of new polling released, I'll be updating my useless foreigner predictions that are in large part small changes/elaborations made to/from Poll Bludger today.

New South Wales: Pretty strong swing to the Coalition here; especially in Sydney, but worth seats in the rural north and the Central Coast as well. The Coalition seems basically set to pick up Lyne and New England from the independents, but also likely to pick up 6 seats that elected an ALP member in 2010; Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, and Dobell. (Dobell, technically, is a gain from the independents, but, you know, still).

Victoria: Absolutely brutal swing towards the Coalition here seems likely going off polling, with Libs easily gaining 3 seats off the ALP; Corangamite, Deakin, laTrobe, but the rest of the swing not getting them much of a dividend. Otherwise,  I'm still of the opinion that Bandt will get a large enough personal vote/sophomore swing in Melbourne to survive.

Queensland: A small swing to the Coalition here would result in the Libs gain 2 seats off the ALP; Moreton and Petrie. In spite of the national swing (and divisional polling ), I do think Beattie has enough star power to flip Forde in the reverse direction. So, Coalition +1 here when all is said and done. Katter will hold on, but it won't matter. (And, yeah, since Fisher is technically independent-held that'll be a Lib pickup as well).

Western Australia: This state seems to still be stubbornly swinging to the ALP, although not by very much. I have a hunch that Swan is more vulnerable than Hasluck, considering Wyatt seems pretty strong and he'll get a sophomore bounce (factors that aren't there in Swan), but ultimately I don't see any change at all as likely in Western Australia (except maybe intra-Coalition shifts in the rural East).

South Australia: The swing to the Coalition here is going to be absolutely brutal – rivaling Victoria for the worst in the country – but it would take more than a 6% swing to flip the most marginal seat, Hindmarsh. And I think -- just barely -- this'll happen.

Tasmania: Pretty much what everyone else has been saying; Bass and Braddon flip, Wilkie survives. Coalition+2.

Territories: I do think the swing to the Coalition at this election the most recent polls have been showing, combined with local trends, will be enough to swing Lingiari to the Coalition.

Summary:
Coalition 89
ALP 58 -- dangerous territory for Rudd's Leadership...
KAP 1
Greens 1
Independent 1 (Wilkie)

Coalition pickups (compared to 2010, alphabetical order):
Division of Banks
Division of Bass
Division of Braddon
Division of Corangamite
Division of Deakin
Division of Dobell
Division of Greenway
Division of Hindmarsh
Division of LaTrobe
Division of Lindsay
Division of Lingiari
Division of Lyne
Division of Moreton
Division of New England
Division of Petrie
Division of Reid
Division of Robertson

Labor pickups (compared to 2010, alphabetical order):
Division of Forde

EDIT: Switched the Divisions of Chisholm and Hindmarsh.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Chisolm is safe... and the swing in SA is moderating significantly.

[Platypus]

If Labor loses with 68 seats, Rudd's gone, let alone 58.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At the moment, going by what I'm hearing, not relying on hysterical and variable polling...

From IND -> LNP
Fisher, QLD
Lyne, NSW
New England, NSW

FROM ALP -> LNP
Banks, NSW
Bass, TAS
Braddon, TAS
Corangamite, VIC
Deakin, VIC
Dobell, NSW
Lindsay, NSW

FROM LNP -> ALP
Brisbane, QLD
Forde, QLD
Hasluck, WA
Macquarie, NSW
Swan, WA

Parliament prediction
ALP: 70
LNP: 77
GRN: 1
IND: 2

The seats that I have DEEP reservations about at the moment
* Greenway
* Robertson
* Melbourne
* La Trobe
* Petrie
* Boothby (I'm not convinced it's as safe as it appears)  

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He's really trying to send this balloon up?