Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Essential

Primary
ALP: 40% (+1)
LNP: 44% (+1)
GRN: 8% (NC)

TPP
ALP: 50% (+1)
LNP: 50% (-1)

And Australian election polling continues to f'ck with us... or something for everyone

[morgieb]

Will do a proper prediction later, but I think the Coalition wins about 80 seats. However, I think that if Labor campaign properly, they are not without a hope.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Another automated robo poll with a plausible headline but weird internals... like implausibly weird.

Longergan

TPP
ALP: 48%
LNP: 52%

The internals I find the most odd... the LNP primary among 18-24 year olds (37%) is stronger than the ALP primary among 60+ (30%)... oh and the fact that the LNP leads the primary among 25-34 year olds?

[morgieb]

Another automated robo poll with a plausible headline but weird internals... like implausibly weird.

Longergan

TPP
ALP: 48%
LNP: 52%

Source?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Have a look at Poll Bludger...

[morgieb]

Updated predictions:

Adelaide - narrow Labor hold, Liberals finish first on primary votes.
Aston - Liberal hold. Likely to swing big.
Ballarat - Labor hold. May swing big.
Banks - key seat. Will probably go with whoever wins, right now I favour the Liberals to win. (Labor 70, LNP 73)
Barker - Liberal hold.
Barton - probable Labor hold, already a large swing here despite McClelland retiring.
Bass - Liberal gain (Labor 69, LNP 74)
Batman - Labor hold, though they may get under 50%.
Bendigo - probable Labor hold. Likely to swing big though, particularly with Gibbons retiring.
Bennelong - probable Liberal hold, but Rudd is a good fit for the division, and Labor made a smart candidate choice.
Berowra - Liberal hold.
Blair - probable Labor hold.
Blaxland - Labor hold, despite what the robopollsters say.
Bonner - key seat, though with Labor's vote softening in Queensland, the Liberals have the edge.
Boothby - probable Liberal hold, given the likely swing in South Australia.
Bowman - Liberal hold, though the current margin looks somewhat inflated.
Braddon - Liberal gain, despite Sidebottom being an established figure in Tasmania (Labor 68, LNP 75)
Bradfield - Liberal hold.
Brand - Labor hold.
Brisbane - key seat, think Labor gains this though it will be close (Labor 69, LNP 74)
Bruce - probable Labor hold.
Calare - National hold, possibly inflated margin.
Calwell - Labor hold.
Canberra - Labor hold.
Canning - margin 'deflated' by the McTiernan effect, who is running in Perth. Accordingly, Liberal hold.
Capricornia - probable Labor hold, though it depends on KAP preferences.
Casey - Liberal hold.
Charlton - Labor hold.
Chifley - Labor hold.
Chisholm - Labor hangs on, Burke's profile as the Speaker will help.
Cook - Liberal hold.
Corangamite - at this stage, a likely Liberal gain (Labor 68, LNP 75)
Corio - Labor hold, potential to swing big.
Cowan - Liberal hold.
Cowper - National hold, possible swing back to the ALP.
Cunningham - Labor hold.
Curtin - Liberal hold.
Dawson - IIRC the KAP is preferencing the ALP, which will help the ALP out. Tough to call given we can't really tell how the KAP will go, but at this stage I lean towards the ALP (Labor 69, LNP 74)
Deakin - Liberal gain (Labor 68, LNP 75)
Denison - Wilkie should retain this easily.
Dickson - probable Liberal hold.
Dobell - given what's happened to Thomson this term this should be an easy Liberal gain, but the margin isn't small and there has been some glimmer of hope in certain polls I've seen. Nevertheless, Liberals should gain this (Labor 68, LNP 76)
Dunkley - probable Liberal hold, despite the misadventures of the state MP.
Durack - with Haase retiring, I think the Nationals narrowly gain this seat.
Eden-Monaro - everyone's favourite bellwether, everything I've seen suggests the ALP will hang on here.
Fadden - Liberal hold.
Fairfax - Palmer should've ran in Fisher or one of the Gold Coast seats. He should poll OK but it won't be enough to win. Liberal hold.
Farrer - Liberal hold.
Fisher - Brough should pick this up, despite his many controversies (Labor 68, LNP 77)
Flinders - Liberal hold.
Flynn - another one of those regional seats where the KAP may be a factor, I think the LNP hangs on.
Forde - I think the Beattie factor allows the ALP to win (Labor 69, LNP 76)
Forrest - Liberal hold.
Fowler - Labor hold.
Franklin - probable Labor hold, the Tasmania swing seems stronger in the north of the state.
Fraser - Labor hold.
Fremantle - Labor hold.
Gellibrand - Labor hold.
Gilmore - probable Liberal hold, though with Gash retiring, this seat will be close.
Gippsland - National hold.
Goldstein - Liberal hold.
Gorton - Labor hold.
Grayndler - Labor hold, think the Liberals finish 2nd here.
Greenway - Tough to call. Liberals should've won easy but Diaz proved to be a dud candidate. Still I think they pinch it (Labor 68, LNP 77)
Grey - Liberal hold.
Griffith - Labor hold, despite what the robopollsters say.
Groom - Liberal hold.
Hasluck - think the Liberals hang on, the sophmore surge will help, as is the ethnicity of the candidate
Herbert - Tough to call. Likely to be the KAP's second best seat. Labor to pinch it (Labor 69, LNP 76)
Higgins - Liberal hold.
Hindmarsh - tough to call. Labor to barely hold, I feel, though this is the most fluid of my predictions.
Hinkler - probable LNP hold, though this should be a big swing with Neville retiring and the KAP factor.
Holt - Labor hold, big swing likely.
Hotham - Labor hold, despite Crean retiring.
Hughes - Liberal hold, despite a strong ALP candidate.
Hume - Liberal hold, despite Schultz retiring.

[morgieb]

Hunter - Labor hold.
Indi - probable Liberal hold, there has however been a lot of talk about an independent called Cathy McGowan (hehe, indie for Indi). She got an OK result with the robopollsters.
Isaacs - probable Labor hold.
Jagajaga - Labor hold.
Kennedy - KAP hold.
Kingsford Smith - a lot of talk about the
Kingston - Labor hold, though the margin here is extremely inflated.
Kooyong - Liberal hold.
La Trobe - Sophmore surge will help Smyth, but the LNP should be favoured here (Labor 68, LNP 77)
Lalor - Labor hold, big swing likely.
Leichhardt - probable Liberal hold.
Lilley - Swan's lower profile will make him less vulnerable. Labor should hang on.
Lindsay - easiest NSW marginal for the LNP to gain. (Labor 67, LNP 78)
Lingiari - one of the few groups where Abbott is popular is with Indigenous elders. Given what happened in the state election, the LNP should gain this. (Labor 66, LNP 79)
Longman - I think Liberals will hang on.
Lyne - with Oakeshott retiring, this seat will return to its traditional hands (Labor 66, LNP 80)
Lyons - the fact that Lyons is endangered shows a lot about Labor's hopes in Tasmania. I feel the margin is too big, however.
Macarthur - probable Liberal hold.
Mackellar - Liberal hold.
Macquarie - a lot of talk about this district being endangered, but I'm unconvinced, this seems like a Liberal-leaning district generally.
Makin - very inflated margin, but I think there's too much fat for the Liberals to cut off.
Mallee - depends on preferences. I think the Liberals gain this.
Maranoa - LNP hold.
Maribyrnong - Labor hold.
Mayo - Liberal hold.
McEwen - could be competitive in the right circumstances, but I think Labor holds.
McMahon - probable Labor hold, despite what the robopollsters say, the Liberal candidate has had quite a bit of controversy and the seat is very traditionally Labor.
McMillan - Liberal hold.
McPherson - Liberal hold.
Melbourne - key seat. Bandt won't get Liberal preferences, but how much leakage will there be? What sort of sophmore surge will he get? I think Labor narrowly pick this up (Labor 67, LNP 80)
Melbourne Ports - probable Labor hold.
Menzies - Liberal hold
Mitchell - Liberal hold
Moncrieff - Liberal hold
Moore - Liberal hold, despite Walsher retiring.
Moreton - At this stage, I think the Liberals pick this up, although Rudd should be a good fit here. (Labor 66, LNP 81)
Murray - Liberal hold.
New England - Windsor's retirement means Barnaby should easily win this (Labor 66, LNP 82)
Newcastle - Labor hold
North Sydney - Liberal hold
O’Connor - despite Crook retiring, I think the Nationals keep this.
Oxley - Labor hold, though quite a few Liberal people are hyping up their hopes here.
Page - Saffin is a pretty popular local MP IIRC, so I think Labor hang on.
Parkes - National hold.
Parramatta - key seat. Margin seems a little too large here though. Labor barely hang on.
Paterson - Liberal hold. They can thank Bob Baldwin for this.
Pearce - Liberal hold, despite Moylan retiring.
Perth - this would've been trouble if Labor nominated a random union hack, but with McTiernan, Labor should on.
Petrie - very small swing here last time, this time my gut says the LNP wins this (Labor 65, LNP 83)
Port Adelaide - Labor hold.
Rankin - probable Labor hold, Emerson's retirement will hurt.
Reid - enough of a core Labor vote here to see them hang on, will be very close though.
Richmond - probable Labor hold, but they do need to campaign here.
Riverina - National hold.
Robertson - despite a sophmore surge, this seat seems too marginal for Labor to hold. (Labor 64, LNP 84)
Ryan - Liberal hold.
Scullin - Labor hold.
Shortland - Labor hold
Solomon - given the misadventures of the sitting government in the Northern Territory, I reckon the Labor party might pinch it. (Labor 65, LNP 83)
Stirling - probable Liberal hold.
Sturt - Liberal hold.
Swan - with a swing to Labor in WA likely, I feel the ALP narrowly wins it. (Labor 66, LNP 82)
Sydney - Labor hold, the Liberal vote is strong enough to keep the Greens at bay.
Tangney - Liberal hold.
Throsby - Labor hold.
Wakefield - I think the margin is too much to overcome, although it will be very marginal.
Wannon - Liberal hold, though some people are talking up Labor's hopes here.
Warringah - Liberal hold
Watson - Labor hold
Wentworth - Liberal hold
Werriwa - probable Labor hold, though polling could be interesting.
Wide Bay - LNP hold.
Wills - Labor hold.
Wright - LNP hold.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

AMR Research - again look at poll bludger

TPP
ALP: 50%
LNP:  50%

[morgieb]

FMD there's been a lot of polls out today.

[Hifly]

When's Nielsen going to come out?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No idea... probably not 'till the end of the week.

[Platypus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H7BTKTOwLE&feature=youtu.be

Quite exceptional

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H7BTKTOwLE&feature=youtu.be

Quite exceptional

It's.... hypnotic.

[Leftbehind]

What in the f**k.

[RogueBeaver]

PVO's take: previously undecided voters are breaking heavily to the Coalition and against Rudd personally. Also quotes an unnamed Gillardite as saying some defectors now have doubts, implies the possibility of leaks later.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PVO's take: previously undecided voters are breaking heavily to the Coalition and against Rudd personally. Also quotes an unnamed Gillardite as saying some defectors now have doubts, implies the possibility of leaks later.

I think PVO has been reaching a bit... so far, only Newspoll is showing a pronounced movement in the last week. Everyone else is around the polling consensus of 52-48 or slightly better for the ALP. But of course, being a Murdoch paper, he needs to treat Newspoll as the be-all and end-all. In relation to leaks... Rudd's been recognised as getting more into the swing of things this week and is more on the attack, I think this week and next week will be THE crucial weeks. I only expect leaks if it's clear internally that he's going to lose, with the intention of finishing him off for good.

I honestly have no idea what is going to happen because the polling is actually far more chaotic than normal...

[You kip if you want to...]

PVO's take: previously undecided voters are breaking heavily to the Coalition and against Rudd personally. Also quotes an unnamed Gillardite as saying some defectors now have doubts, implies the possibility of leaks later.

The ALP are such a mess.

So this campaign is basically on the verge of descending into 2010 mark II for Labor.

[morgieb]

ITM: Newspoll being treated as the gold standard.

Whereas all the other national polls have suggested that it's still close.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

PVO's take: previously undecided voters are breaking heavily to the Coalition and against Rudd personally. Also quotes an unnamed Gillardite as saying some defectors now have doubts, implies the possibility of leaks later.

The ALP are such a mess.

So this campaign is basically on the verge of descending into 2010 mark II for Labor.

PVO has been wrong in the past, and unless extenuating circumstances emerge, I don't see this happening.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Murdoch has a well known preference for people who are about to get convictions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[Platypus]

About to go and vote now. Still working out the preferences between 1-2 for Sex Party and Stable Population Party, and 3-4-5 between the Greens, ALP and Palmer United Party (lol), but 6th is Libs, 7th is the DLP (ugh), 8th is Family First, and 9th is Rise Up Australia.

So many awful candidates. Best candidate is probs the Lib, but... Abbott.

As for the Senate, hot mess.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't get why people vote early if they don't need to. I enjoy the process of voting on the day and all the hooplah.

[Platypus]

I won't be in Victoria again til Sunday the 8th :/