Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Gillard knits for a women's magazine- gift for the royal baby. Married women, I'm guessing? Certainly a change of tack.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The Labor caucus have held its last meeting pre-election, and Gillard has survived, although former minister Graham Richardson thinks there might be a challenge on Thursday, although he cannot say if Rudd will challenge:

http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=882811

[minionofmidas]

Do any of you think that a defeat of the magnitude we are seeing for the Labor Party at the federal level will translate into continuing Liberal victories in future state elections after this September, like in South Australia for instance?   

Winning a huge victory without being actually popular is more likely to spell 'disaster' for the next few lesser-order elections. Though if the first such elections are in the remaining Labor-held states, maybe not.

[Smid]

Oakeshott announces his retirement. A pity, I was expecting that to be the largest seat swing and wondering just how large it might be... Now we'll never know...

[RogueBeaver]

Gillard expects a ballot petition but MPs could be forced to quite literally put their hands up for the motion to proceed. I'm still betting on Gillard being PM on Saturday. Rudd's conditions haven't been met.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Oakeshott announces his retirement. A pity, I was expecting that to be the largest seat swing and wondering just how large it might be... Now we'll never know...

Look on the bright side - it means the National Party can invest more effort into ousting Tony Windsor!

Gillard expects a ballot petition but MPs could be forced to quite literally put their hands up for the motion to proceed. I'm still betting on Gillard being PM on Saturday. Rudd's conditions haven't been met.

I agree, this should all come to no change.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Do any of you think that a defeat of the magnitude we are seeing for the Labor Party at the federal level will translate into continuing Liberal victories in future state elections after this September, like in South Australia for instance?  

Winning a huge victory without being actually popular is more likely to spell 'disaster' for the next few lesser-order elections. Though if the first such elections are in the remaining Labor-held states, maybe not.

As I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head said earlier, there is a good chance Victoria will elect a Labor government in November 2014, unless a motion-of-no-confidence is passed there earlier.

UPDATE: Tony Windsor has also announced his retirement, this means that both New England and Lyne should be easy National gains.

[Smid]

Both of them are cowards who betrayed their constituents and are fleeing the scene to avoid the swing against them from being presented as the proof of this betrayal. Regardless, I think that the National Party vote will be very similar, regardless of their disappearance on the ballot paper. I suspect very few people who vote for the Nationals candidate would have voted for either of the independents had they contested anyway.

[Talleyrand]

There will be a leadership ballot tomorrow at 9 A.M., if the Daily Telegraph is to be believed. Rudd supporters have gathered enough signatures to push for a spill, and apparently it has been confirmed that he plans to contest it.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/kevin-rudd-to-challenge-pm-julia-gillard-for-labor-leadership-tomorrow-morning/story-e6freuy9-1226670143790

...I'm still skeptical on this. If I had to make a bet, I'd say he stays out and she's elected unopposed, again.

[Dereich]

There will be a leadership ballot tomorrow at 9 A.M., if the Daily Telegraph is to be believed. Rudd supporters have gathered enough signatures to push for a spill, and apparently it has been confirmed that he plans to contest it.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/kevin-rudd-to-challenge-pm-julia-gillard-for-labor-leadership-tomorrow-morning/story-e6freuy9-1226670143790

...I'm still skeptical on this. If I had to make a bet, I'd say he stays out and she's elected unopposed, again.

[Mr. Morden]

Live blog on the unfolding developments for those who are interested:

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-pulse-live/politics-live-june-26-2013-20130626-2ovyx.html

[y4t7sds12]

7pm AEST.

[mattyman]

Gillard has called another leadership vote 7pm tonight!

[Mr. Morden]

For those wondering, 7pm AEST is ~2hr 10 min from now.  Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd will apparently hold a press conference at 5pm AEST, which is ~10 min from now.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/kevin-rudd-to-challenge-pm-julia-gillard-for-labor-leadership-tomorrow-morning/story-e6frg6n6-1226670143790

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[morgieb]

Apparently Gillard saying she'd retire if she loses, and is calling on the other loser to do so too.

Labor may be wiped out in Queensland if Gillard wins.

[Smid]

Apparently Gillard saying she'd retire if she loses, and is calling on the other loser to do so too.

Labor may be wiped out in Queensland if Gillard wins.

Labor won't lose Griffith simply because Rudd isn't the candidate. It's possible it could lose the seat, but that would only be if they picked a poor candidate who proceeded to make numerous campaign mistakes, and it coincided with a conservative "wave" election.

[y4t7sds12]

Rudd to run.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/rudd-to-take-on-pm-for-leadership/story-fnhqeu0x-1226670119125

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Other sources suggest that Rudd is accepting Gillard's challenge, to retire from politics if he loses.

Rudd is gaining on betting sites, and it looks like he's the betting favorite at the moment.

[Mr. Morden]

Rudd winning today won't automatically make him Prime Minister:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/independents-still-crucial-to-vote-20130626-2owyc.html

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I'm a bit confused about that final outcome.  If the Independents refuse to back Abbott and they refuse to back Rudd, the election happens early, but who is PM in the interim?

[morgieb]

Apparently Gillard saying she'd retire if she loses, and is calling on the other loser to do so too.

Labor may be wiped out in Queensland if Gillard wins.

Labor won't lose Griffith simply because Rudd isn't the candidate. It's possible it could lose the seat, but that would only be if they picked a poor candidate who proceeded to make numerous campaign mistakes, and it coincided with a conservative "wave" election.

tbf his personal vote is apparently massive. Though it's only measuring primary votes.

Rudd would hold Griffith, but his replacement may not.

[Smid]

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[Mr. Morden]

I'm a bit confused about that final outcome.  If the Independents refuse to back Abbott and they refuse to back Rudd, the election happens early, but who is PM in the interim?

To follow up on this, what is the exact procedure for what happens if Rudd deposes Gillard?  Rudd goes to Bryce and says "I'm the ALP Leader now, so please declare me PM"?  He has to demonstrate the support of the majority of the House, but how is this achieved if the Parliament isn't in session?  Does Gillard continue on as PM until the House affirmatively demonstrates its backing of Rudd (or someone else)?

EDIT: Forget the part I crossed out.  I forgot that they're still in session tomorrow.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-pulse-live/politics-live-june-26-2013-20130626-2ovyx.html

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[Platypus]

Gillard goes to the GG and resigns, she appoints Rudd as PM, Abbott passes a motion of no confidence in the house, and then either

a) Rudd has the support of the chamber and remains PM until an election at a time of his choosing.

b) Rudd loses the support of the chamber, and Abbott gains it, and he remains PM until an election at a time of his choosing.

c) Rudd loses the support of the chamber, and Abbott doesn't gain it, but someone else does and becomes PM until an election at the time of their choosing.

d) Rudd loses the support of the parliament, and nobody else gains it, and poarliament automatically goes into caretaker mode until an election is held at the earliest possible moment, and the GG has the opportunity to choose someone other than Rudd as caretaker PM, but would be very unlikely to choose anyone else than Abbott or Rudd.