Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rudd misses the boat for an August 24th election. He's not going to the GG today.

The 24th was never a starter... it's between 31 August and 21 September.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Rudd misses the boat for an August 24th election. He's not going to the GG today.

The 24th was never a starter... it's between 31 August and 21 September.

Will be interesting to see what day it is called for, an October poll is looking extremely unlikely now...

[Hifly]

The Labor government has brought itself to new lows. This is particularly disgusting.
http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/outrage-at-creepy-photos-of-distraught-asylum-seekers-20130722-2qe2z.html

[RogueBeaver]

PNG says they won't resettle those denied refugee status.

Reforms approved but will need final ratification by national conference next year.

Newspoll out: 52-48 Coalition, which translates to 83-65 on Green's app.

[You kip if you want to...]

Dealing with refugees
Lib/Nat 33 (-14)
ALP 26 (+6)

Bad morals, but good politics.

[morgieb]

As appalling as the asylum seekers thing is, that's good signs for Labor.

Morgan saying 51.5/48.5 (I think). Remember, the multi-node poll is nowhere near as ALP-leaning as the F2F.

52/48 could just be sampling, but it's good news for Abbott. Labor are still battling.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Australian election year polling... trust me, it'll get even weirder once the election is called.

[You kip if you want to...]

More from the Newspoll: Approvals

Kevin Rudd
42/41 (-1/+5)

Tony Abbott
35/56 (nc/nc)

PPM
Kevin 50 (-3)
Tony 34 (+3)

And primary vote
LNP 45 (+3)
ALP 37 (-1)
Greens 10 (+1)

[You kip if you want to...]

And Morgan has the ALP leading on 52.5-47.5, with the ALP also ahead on a primary vote of 41.5% (-0.5) to 41% (nc) for the Coalition.

[countydurhamboy]

 How significant is first term incumbency in australian elections? Strongest swings to ALP in QLD and to LIB in VIC I take it?

[Talleyrand]

How significant is first term incumbency in australian elections? Strongest swings to ALP in QLD and to LIB in VIC I take it?

I would anticipate a swing to the ALP in Queensland simply because they no longer have the burden of Gillard or the unpopular state Labor government which existed at the time of the 2010 election. The restoration of Rudd is pivotal to this, as Queenslanders are quite parochial and he still retains a fair bit of popularity in his home state. Campbell Newman's LNP government and its "austerity" program might be a wedge issue which could help Labor there, although I wouldn't expect to them win more than 2-4 additional seats if the election were held today (and these would be offset by losses elsewhere). If Labor does somehow win, it will be because they held the line around the rest of the country and made significant gains in Queensland.

As for Victoria, Labor is probably maxed out there after their huge win in 2010. Hughento mentioned that there's only one seat which Labor could conceivably win that they don't already hold (Dunkley IIRC). There will be a pretty significant swing against Labor here, and it'll cost them 2-4 seats most likely, if not more. It would have been worse, had the state ALP government held on in 2010.

[RogueBeaver]

Mike Kelly will shadow MOD.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Mike Kelly will shadow MOD.

Kelly is a great MP and I think would make a great Defence Minister... I'd personally love to see Penny Wong as Defence Minister.... but eh.

---

At the moment, I think the ALP will pick up 4-6 seats in QLD - losing maybe 2 or 3 in VIC, maybe one in TAS and a chance at a pick up in WA.

We've already hit a polling reset button on 26 June... we'll press another once the election is called. As everyone in NOW saying, this election will be decided by who campaigns the best.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/right-has-twigged-that-abbott-may-be-on-shaky-ground-20130723-2qhfc.html

Not necessarily accurate, but an interesting read.

[RogueBeaver]

A boat sank, 157 survivors, 3 dead.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A boat sank, 157 survivors, 3 dead.

As always, terrible.

[RogueBeaver]

Back to the future: Victorian infighting.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think people would have smelt more of a rat if there wasn't ALP in-fighting lol

[RogueBeaver]

TWU chooses indirect spending on its issues instead of a $250k direct donation to the ALP. Weird Oz headline- it'd be a snub if they stayed out entirely, which of course would never happen.

[You kip if you want to...]

Some new ads from the ALP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYcgM5H-uH4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2ocmNJUX70

[Peter the Lefty]

What a disgusting, political, inhumane, and vile piece of sh*t, Rudd.  Can't believe it's actually given him a boost. 
I know I've asked this before, but why is Australia so f--king xenophobic?  And inhumane about it, too?  Does being from another country (especially where people are brown zomg they look different!) automatically make one a horrible person in the eyes of the Australian public?

[RogueBeaver]

Gillard speaks from the political grave, mostly LOL-worthy IMO.

Anyone know whether there will be a dissolution on Saturday or Monday? Or will he wait for 9/21 as E-Day?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Australia certainly isn't xenophobic: few countries are quite so keen on essentially importing people, particularly not over such a long period of time. The man in my signature is a famous (and delightfully ironic) example. White Australia (to deal immediately with what would otherwise be a rather large elephant in the room) was a racist policy but not a xenophobic one: the policies that led to the massive wave of European immigrants to Australia after the Second World War were largely the work of Arthur Calwell, who was also a dogged and determined advocate of White Australia. And post Holt/Whitlam Australia has seen a considerable amount of nonwhite immigration, to which the backlash has been notably less ugly than that against comparable first waves of nonwhite immigration to (say) Britain or France.

The boats issue is an ugly one (no point in pretending otherwise), but there's nothing specifically Australian about it, other than the obvious: that Australia - one of the richest countries on the planet and also one of its first and most stable democracies - happens to be comparatively easy to reach from basically anywhere in South or East Asia.

[MaxQue]

What a disgusting, political, inhumane, and vile piece of sh*t, Rudd.  Can't believe it's actually given him a boost.  
I know I've asked this before, but why is Australia so f--king xenophobic?  And inhumane about it, too?  Does being from another country (especially where people are brown zomg they look different!) automatically make one a horrible person in the eyes of the Australian public?

Answer is simple. People are broke, they pay taxes and yet the government is saying them than yhey must pay more or they cut services. Obviously, those people doesn't want more poor people needing help, since the government will either cut more or raise taxes again.

Also, when you're unemployed, the last thing you want is more people seeking a work, since it's make wages lower and competition higher.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it's far far more complex than xenophobia - there certainly is an xenophobic element. But there is a perception, as Max says (paraphrasing) "we're struggling, but we're paying for ..." etc

I think there is something to say about the Australian belief in fairness - a lot of this for some people is that these people have 'broken the rules' and are getting in ahead of refugees who are doing it 'properly'

Not agreeing but just my observations - frankly the simplistic knee-jerk from the left and the increased bellicosity of the right is driving me nuts...

Tradition is that elections are called on Saturdays - so if he doesn't go tomorrow - it'll be 21 September.

And the I don't see what's so LOL- worthy in Gillard's interview... I agree with a lot of it. It would have been great to see more of the real Gillard, as opposed to her mechanical alter-ego