Australia - 7 September 2013

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liberal candidate for Charlton 'withdraws' under something of a cloud.

[Leftbehind]

I don't get why people vote early if they don't need to. I enjoy the process of voting on the day and all the hooplah.

There's your problem.

[RogueBeaver]

Leaks from ALP strategists that Rudd's "delusional" and needs to play seat-by-seat defence in NSW/VIC. Plus both sides see QLD as crucial and hope the debate will help them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Leaks from ALP strategists that Rudd's "delusional" and needs to play seat-by-seat defence in NSW/VIC. Plus both sides see QLD as crucial and hope the debate will help them.

The one thing you learn about Canberra, the press gallery know a lot more... they could be saying a lot more. But they're quoting it for a reason.


Both sides know this election is a lot closer than people are perceiving it...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I don't get why people vote early if they don't need to. I enjoy the process of voting on the day and all the hooplah.

So do I, Polnut and I may differ very greatly, but we agree on this! I also enjoy watching the returns on the night.

On a side note, it's been three years today since the last election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

For those not in Australia - I'd advise to look into this paid parental leave drama... 

[Smid]

The Palmer United Party press releases all refer to "when the party is successful at the September 7 election..." not "if the party..."

[RogueBeaver]

The egomania gets worse if the multimillionaire businessman leads a major party, or dare I say the government. But Oz hasn't had one of them as PM yet.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll state-by-state breakdown is out.



NSW- Coalition: 57 (57)
VIC- Labor: 54 (51)
QLD- Coalition: 53 (59)
SA- Coalition: 54 (54)
WA- Coalition: 59 (62)

So it looks like Newspoll corroborates the nasty internals released from NSW last week to some extent, and the claims that Labor will suffer a nasty swing (enough to deliver Hindmarsh and possibly up to a couple others) to the Coalition in SA. The news we've been hearing about a swing to Labor in WA seems misplaced, and potential gains in Swan and Hasluck seem dubious at best. Labor's vote in VIC seems to be holding up surprisingly well, and it's possible that the ALP could retain La Trobe on these figures. As for Queensland, it appears Rudd has NOT been a dud, and we're looking at a fairly decent 2 point swing (possibly enough to deliver seats such as Forde, Brisbane, and Herbert?).

That said, the polling seems to be all over the place and Newspoll's 54-46 figure doesn't match up with the 52-48 or 50-50 results we've been seeing from other pollsters lately, so these figures could be quite off the mark.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As for the forum 'or Town Hall debate' - remember I said I believed Abbott was a clear but not emphatic winner last time? Rudd won this emphatically. Rudd started positively but then eventually eyeballed Abbott demanding details of where the cuts will come from. There was another exchange in which Abbott said 'does this guy ever shut up?'

Rudd was passionate and fired up and Abbott looked incredibly uncomfortable and stiff, translated from the original Sky News 'Rudd was hyperactive and Abbott was calm' lol.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

57-43 in NSW?! Give me a break!

The more I look at the Newspoll, the more fail I see. Not even the most ardent LNP supporter can tell me that those numbers make sense...

[Hifly]

57-43 in NSW?! Give me a break!

It backs up the result of the electorate polls released a few days back.

[Smid]

And no way the Greens have improved on 2010 in Victoria, or for others to be poling only a smidgeon above last election, while running more candidates, thanks to Palmer and Katter parties forming. Greens have dropped everywhere else, collapsed in the youngest age group, but surged 4% in Victoria? That's also what if inflating Labor's 2PP there.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

57-43 in NSW?! Give me a break!

It backs up the result of the electorate polls released a few days back.

Considering it doesn't parallel any of the intelligence in the ground...  plus those poll were jokes.

And yes, there's no way the VIC number is right either ... 17% Greens? No.

The data is rubbish.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/can-we-believe-the-polls-robopollsters-are-showing-strange-results-20130822-2sep7.html?post_id=1939414_10102823082886080#_=_

Pretty much says everything I've been thinking about robo-polling

[Talleyrand]

The "poll" showing Rudd trailing 48-52 in Griffith was conducted by the same people who showed Beattie trailing 40-60 in Forde!? Well, that's heartening news since we can now be somewhat confident that that's garbage.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The "poll" showing Rudd trailing 48-52 in Griffith was conducted by the same people who showed Beattie trailing 40-60 in Forde!? Well, that's heartening news since we can now be somewhat confident that that's garbage.

And the 60% primary for the LNP in Lindsay

[RogueBeaver]

Here in Canada the robopollsters have been completely hit or miss (20pp the wrong way in one recent case) with constituencies, so I'd ignore them. Remember when they showed Werriwa and Blaxland flippant earlier this year, and even when Gillard hit 43% 2PP Griffith was the one immovable fixture in QLD? Garbage.

In non-polling news, Rudd's makeup artist accused him of unspecified rudeness, which the PM denies. Hawke likes Shorten's leadership chances.

[Talleyrand]

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Link

New polls from Galaxy (marginals in Sydney and Victoria) and Newspoll (Forde).

An more detailed graphic of the polling

[RogueBeaver]

More accusations of Ruddness, this time from a retired AVM. IMO not consequential in and of themselves, but feeds pre-existing impressions.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Galaxy are serious pollsters, so they have to be taken seriously, even if I don't exactly buy all of them.

[RogueBeaver]

There'll be a 3rd debate, another town hall, in Sydney next Wednesday. Presumably that's the final one?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, another 'people's forum' and that will be it.

[Hifly]

Nielsen is now out- and it's 53-47 to the Libs 2PP.

[Smid]

Watching Sky. "Jack the Insider" from the Australian expresses doubts about the robopolls but offers an explanation. He said they only work for landlines. I think nobody here needs the implication of this explained.

Yeah, Neilson seems to reflect Newspoll. I think the Labor primary vote is going to be down two to 35%, the Coalition up one to 47%, and the Greens steady on 10%.