Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Teddy is wrong ...

[RogueBeaver]

Abbott says he'll resign if he loses.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott says he'll resign if he loses.

Knowing that makes his victory more distressing

[You kip if you want to...]

I still can't get my head round the fact he's lasted nearly 4 years as party leader. In Australia.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

*INTERNAL POLLING CAVEAT*

Rumbles that Kate Ellis in Adelaide is on a knife-edge (which probably means 2-3%), suggesting that SA could be tricky, but expect the bigger swings in the safer ALP seats, like Adelaide. The other, which seems to reflect a lot of hesitation on the part of many on Greenway, internals are suggesting it is 50/50 - but the rest of Sydney is ugly ... as we know.

[BigSkyBob]

Teddy is wrong ...

Predictions are judged as predictions, not statements of fact. In general, possible outcomes are modeled on a bell curve. Mathematically, if 97-50-3 has some probability of occurring you simply cannot label his prediction "wrong."  All you can say is that 97-50-3 way to the Coalition side of the bell curve distribution by your analysis.  Maybe, 97-50-3 is a two-, three-, or four-sigma event by conventional analysis. Then again, the recent victory of the Liberal party in British Columbia was modeled as a three-, or possibly four-, sigma event.  For you to imply that a 97-50-3 is an infinite-sigma event is, I suspect, simply wrong.

A fortnight, or so, after the election night we shall all see whose predictions turned out to more prescient than the others.

I would end by asking who is to really know whether those that predicted a BC Liberal victory were particularly astute political analysts or partisan Grit hacks putting their hearts before their heads?  Every Sunday somebody wins the football pool. Someone is going to win this contest. In hindsight, it will be because they correctly called the tossups  and/or they predicted the right "upsets."  Whether that was a matter of skill or dumb luck we'll never know. Personally, I'm in the camp of recognizing that what we don't know what we don't know. One of the things we simply don't know is who is going to win a number of close contests on Saturday.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Alright then, the conclusion his analysis has reached, will end up being wrong, because there are so many more variables this year than 2010 as well as local circumstances which will lead to uneven application of swings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Teddy is wrong ...

Teddy's not usually very good at predicting our elections, leta lone a country on the other side of the world. Kudos to him though, I wouldn't know where to begin in making a prediction.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

*INTERNAL POLLING CAVEAT*

Rumbles that Kate Ellis in Adelaide is on a knife-edge (which probably means 2-3%), suggesting that SA could be tricky, but expect the bigger swings in the safer ALP seats, like Adelaide. The other, which seems to reflect a lot of hesitation on the part of many on Greenway, internals are suggesting it is 50/50 - but the rest of Sydney is ugly ... as we know.

I think Ellis will hold Adelaide narrowly, I can see bigger swings in outer Adelaide seats myself. Like I've said before, you'll all see my predictions tomorrow.

Abbott says he'll resign if he loses.

I can't access the article, did Abbott say he would resign from Parliament or just resign as leader?

[RogueBeaver]

He'd resign as leader.

[morgieb]

Was that the same Teddy that used to post here?

[Hatman 🍁]

Was that the same Teddy that used to post here?

yup

[Smid]

*INTERNAL POLLING CAVEAT*

Rumbles that Kate Ellis in Adelaide is on a knife-edge (which probably means 2-3%), suggesting that SA could be tricky, but expect the bigger swings in the safer ALP seats, like Adelaide. The other, which seems to reflect a lot of hesitation on the part of many on Greenway, internals are suggesting it is 50/50 - but the rest of Sydney is ugly ... as we know.

I think Ellis will hold Adelaide narrowly, I can see bigger swings in outer Adelaide seats myself. Like I've said before, you'll all see my predictions tomorrow.

For the past couple of weeks, the reports have been Liberals ahead in Hindmarsh and Wakefield, and close but behind in Adelaide. Holden workers voting to give themselves a pay cut to keep the factory open, following Rudd's changes to FBT which remove vehicle exemption type things is probably part of the reason why Labor isn't doing as well in some parts of Adelaide. Plus, the pendulum is pretty high there and in Victoria for Labor.

[morgieb]

I think Labor barely hang on to Hindmarsh (my predictions say it'll be the closest loss), keep Adelaide due to Greens preferences (seats like that don't swing that much) and hold on against a large swing in Wakefield.

As for La Trobe, I reckon Labor lose it, but it'll go to whoever wins the election. Ditto Greenway.

[Platypus]

I can see very large (6-8%) swings in Makin and Wakefield, probably not enough for the seats to fall though. Maybe Wakefield if it truly is a bloodbath.

For Port Adelaide, also a large swing is on the cards, 5-6%.

Adelaide, Hindmarsh, and Kingston are looking more like 3-5%. Hindmarsh could fall, the others are unlikely.

[Smid]

Teddy's predicting a 97-50-3 result.

Paul Murray says this is precisely Latham's prediction, actually.

[morgieb]

Teddy's predicting a 97-50-3 result.

Paul Murray says this is precisely Latham's prediction, actually.

Given what Teddy was banned for, it makes sense

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Teddy's predicting a 97-50-3 result.

Paul Murray says this is precisely Latham's prediction, actually.

I make it a rule to pay as little attention to either of these gentlemen

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy's predicting a 97-50-3 result.

Paul Murray says this is precisely Latham's prediction, actually.

I make it a rule to pay as little attention to either of these gentlemen

The Oz quotes Lab sources as expecting to lose 15-20. 50 would be 21, n'est ce pas?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm having trouble funding more than 15 I could confidently names as losses.

[morgieb]

I'm having trouble funding more than 15 I could confidently names as losses.

Funding?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gah - iPhone auto-correct!!!

[morgieb]

What I expect on election night:

* NSW to look ugly. I predicted a loss of 7 seats in the Sydney commuter belt, and there could be more. Nevertheless, the swing will be largely restricted to Sydney, and the worse fears of a wipeout will be dumbfounded.
* Victoria to depress Labor, but there are too many safe seats to really hurt them.
* Queensland to hold up wellish, although there'll be a further swing in Brisbane at least.
* South Australia to swing hard, but it ultimately won't cost them further seats.
* Not much change in Western Australia.
* Tasmania to look ugly, but at least Labor will sort of hang on.
* No-one to talk about territories, yet some further movement away from Labor.
* In general, 3rd parties to underachieve. Although I predicted that the LNP will lose Fairfax, I'll now say that the 3rd parties won't really dent the current pendulum. Personally, the KAP won't do much, the PUP will underperform and a lot of Senate bolters won't happen.

At the end of the day, it won't look that bad, but it'll make it hard to win government back. But it could still easily be Queensland 2.0.

As for the Senate (my HOR predictions are in another thread)

NSW: At this stage, I'll say 3 LNP, 2 Labor, 1 Green. One Nation not getting Liberal preferences will screw them given that the LNP will probably be around 3 quotas . Shooters & Fishers an outside shot of gaining the last seat off the Greens, though.

Victoria: Lean 3 LNP, 2 Labor, 1 Green. Think the LNP will be high enough to ward off FFP for the 3rd right spot.

Queensland: Not really sure how to call this. But given that the Greens have more infrastructure in the state than the Palmer United Party, I'll say they win the last seat with the PUP's preferences. 3 LNP, 2 Labor, 1 Green. I initially had Katter winning here, but his party seems to be slumping.

South Australia: 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Xenophon, 1 TCS. The Climate Skeptics, you may ask? Well, they've got a very good preference flow, and with Xenophon here, it makes it harder for the major parties to get near a 3rd quota. Plus the slogan "No Carbon Tax" may get them some votes, a negligible proportion too, but enough to snatch the last seat.

Western Australia: 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green. Though it will be close for the last seat between the Greens and the Nationals. NFI how the preference flows will go.

Tasmania: Undoubtedly the most boring election - I expect the Liberals to get around 3 quotas, Labor to get around 2, and the Greens to get around 1.

ACT: Hard to see Liberals doing worse here than in 2010, given this is probably one of the few locations in Australia where the Gillard-but-not-Rudd population is more than negligible, and a general swing towards the Coalition, despite the candidates for the Liberals and the Greens, so 1 Labor, 1 Liberal.

Northern Territory: 1 Labor, 1 Liberal. Doubt Labor gets under a quota, if they do, they may get swamped by the First Nations Party (basically a party for Indigenous rights, kinda like the Maori Party in New Zealand).


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Also, Palmer apparently opposes the carbon tax, yet supports an ETS. So even if he does win it'll be hard to get repeal through the Senate...virtually impossible if the Greens get the last seat in South Australia.

[Platypus]

Libs have released their uncosted costings, nothing savaged except foreign aid.

Not helpful to Seselja though, as along with the 12000 job cuts the Libs want a further efficiency dividend. Any public servants still undecided will jump into Labor and the Greens now I suspect.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think story of the costings is two fold - Hockey and Robb looked... terrible, Hockey in particular. The other is that while it does undermine the ALP's slash and burn angle - it completely knee-caps their own 'Budget emergency' angle... they end up $6bn a year better off... in 4 years... if things don't change... and the Senate passes everything.