Australia - 7 September 2013

[Knives]

Victoria's 6th I think will be either Family First or Sex Party.

[Lurker]

A question for you Aussies:

Have there been much complaints about media bias in this election? I looked at a list of newspapers endorsements and was surprised to see that every single newspaper has endorsed the Coalition (with Canberra Times being the lone exception). Seems like the press really despise mr. Rudd.

[Platypus]

There have been plenty of complaints, but not so much about the endorsements - that's all part of the process, and the papers can endorse whoever they want - but more about the ongoing coverage from certain papers. Particularly, and unsurprisingly, the Murdoch-owned ones, and particularly the Murdoch-owned tabloids, and particularly the Murdoch-owned tabloid in Sydney...

[Hatman 🍁]

A question for you Aussies:

Have there been much complaints about media bias in this election? I looked at a list of newspapers endorsements and was surprised to see that every single newspaper has endorsed the Coalition (with Canberra Times being the lone exception). Seems like the press really despise mr. Rudd.

It's the same in Canada. Every paper but one (the Toronto Star) always endorse the Conservatives. The Star normally endorses the Liberals, but endorsed the NDP in 2011.

[Platypus]

Here they certainly don't always go for the Coalition. But it's very rare for the Murdoch papers to evenly split their endorsements

[RogueBeaver]

Mackerras is predicting 94-54-2 in the House, 36-27-10-3 in the Senate. Other senators are Madigan, Xenophon and Blundell. Also adamant that Rudd will lose Griffith. I guess final Newspoll should be out soon, alongside Green's prediction.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Mackerras has been out of the loop for a while...

[Foucaulf]

Teddy is wrong ...

Predictions are judged as predictions, not statements of fact. In general, possible outcomes are modeled on a bell curve. Mathematically, if 97-50-3 has some probability of occurring you simply cannot label his prediction "wrong

Hate to interrupt the conversation, but lay off Polnut and recall that sampling bias is a thing. The rest of that post is skeptic claptrap I had thought Fivethirtyeight had quashed well...

[Platypus]

A not particularly political friend of mine's summary of the choice:

Red: spending, fast internet, trains, xenophobic-ish treatment of refugees, climate change exists. Narcissitic control freak, speaks Mandarin, trained diplomat, tries to understand younger demographics, has a way with and control over words.

Blue: spending not so much, much slower fast internet, roads (cause we really need more cars), even more xenophobic treatment of refugees, climate change kind of exists. Rigid conservative values, monoglot, might not like females on a subconscious level, been described as someone who “will do anything to be in government”, either too controlled or not controlled enough with what he says (has said many stupid things).

Bang on

[RogueBeaver]

Final Galaxy: 53/47, 45/35/9, 47/34 economic management.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

One thing I'll warn you about polling right now ... the pollsters have NO idea what to do with the PUP/KAP preferences - so they're operating on guess work... Only one pollster has specifically asked these voters what they were doing... and it was only in QLD, it showed heavy flows (sorry) to the ALP... but the other pollsters are assuming they will break for the LNP...

I'm not saying the polls are or will be wrong - what I am saying is you need to look at polls with that in mind.

[RogueBeaver]

Hockey will raise the debt ceiling. Rudd will stay on as Griffith's MP if he loses but refuses to commit to a full term.

Parties aren't releasing media policies, and both sides expect a loss of about 20 seats for Lab.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh RB - do you read anything besides tat?

[BigSkyBob]

Teddy is wrong ...

Predictions are judged as predictions, not statements of fact. In general, possible outcomes are modeled on a bell curve. Mathematically, if 97-50-3 has some probability of occurring you simply cannot label his prediction "wrong

Hate to interrupt the conversation, but lay off Polnut and recall that sampling bias is a thing. The rest of that post is skeptic claptrap I had thought Fivethirtyeight had quashed well...

First of all, I am not particularly impressed with your opinion of the merits or demerits of some unstated argument by some sports prognosticator. If you think his arguments actually have some merit by all means share them.

It is not "skeptic claptrap" that another mathematical model of the British Columbia election showed a BC Liberal popular vote and seat majorities being something on the order of three- and two-sigma events respectively with the actual comfortable margins being achieved even more highly improbable.  Is it really "skeptic claptrap" to point out this objective fact because a four-sigma event just happened by chance, or was it the underlying model itself that was the "claptrap?"

Blaming "sampling bias" makes no sense. It is akin to arguing, "My model wouldn't have garbage out if it didn't have garbage in."  It would seem immediately obvious that if you want to model the variability of an election result that projection would model the variability of the sampling. Obviously, some hand-waving occurred. Turns out that the simplifying assumptions resulted in the model being simplistic.  That is just the objective fact, unless you want to argue sometimes lightening stricks the same person twice in one year.  

Another assumption in such models is that what happens during the balance of the election doesn't matter. Apparently, prognosticators can't model last-minute doubts about the Labor defeating John Majors, or the BC NDP returning to power after their previous stint, so they assume such events don't occur. Again, their models are counter-factual.

The person who has to "lay off" someone is Polnut. His formulation has every indication of him speaking ex cathedra when he is simply in no position to do so whatsoever.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the AFR's predictable Coalition endorsement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Queensland - Labor seats

Basically Queensland is confusing the hell out of me. My general thinking is that the swing (no matter what direction) is probably better for Labor outside Greater Brisbane, but that's purely because that was the pattern in the Great Electoral Armageddon of 2012. Anyway...

Griffith - Rudd's electoral fief in south central Brisbane is, on paper at least, the safest Labor seat in Queensland. There have been a few ominous/dodgy local polls here, but Rudd ought to be more than fine provided that this isn't one of those random Queensland Wipeout Years that the ALP occasionally suffers from. In the absence of Rudd - who, somewhat remarkably given his personality, has a large personal vote - this seat would not be safe at all, though would still lean Labor.

Oxley - a rather odd division that includes a random assortment of southern Brisbane suburbs - including Inla, one of only two Brisbane seats to stay Labor in the Great Electoral Cataclysm of 2012 - and the eastern suburbs of Ipswich, and is a safe ALP seat by nature (it used to include all of Ipswich and was very safe, except for 1996 - and the less said about that the better). Ought to be a Labor hold, no matter what.

Rankin - another fairly safe Labor seat in the southern suburbs of Brisbane, with strong Labor support in Logan (part of which even stayed Labor in 2012) finding itself somewhat diluted by more wishy-washy territory inside Brisbane proper. This is an open seat (which may be less than great news), but ought to be held if statewide polling tells the truth.

Blair - an uneasy mix of strongly Labor Ipswich and a sizeable swathe of rural territory. This was a comfortable Labor hold in 2010 and ought to be held again if the polls are correct. Queensland, though, is Queensland, so, you know.

Capricornia - a big slice of regional Queensland that has tended to remain pretty loyal to Labor while other divisions in that part of the world have become (at best) patchy in recent decades; the reason for the difference being the fact that the Labor vote was (is) based around the coal industry. It is occasionally lost, however, and the chances of that happening are elevated this year by the retirement of Kirsten Livermore. All things considered I'll call a Labor hold here, but this is definitely one to keep an eye on.

Lilley - there is a very real prospect of Swan losing as he did in 1996 (though the boundaries are a tad better for Labor now than then, if I remember rightly. Which I might not) and whether he does or not mostly depends on what version of political reality in Queensland is the real one. Very much in Swan's favour is the fact that Lilley is (unusually for Queensland) a low-swinging seat, and my general suspicion is that Swan will hang on through sheer bile.

Petrie - the reality problem strikes even harder here: if Labor aren't doing so badly in Queensland (even if only because the swing happened in 2010), then there's a very good chance that this seat will be held (meaning that it will he held by an opposition member for the first time in a quarter of a century). If that is not the case, then Petrie is horribly vulnerable. Genuinely undecided.

Moreton - the same problem as with Petrie, but on a significantly narrower margin. As such, it logically follows that I should predict a Coalition gain, albeit with some vague hesitancy. Can see anything from another narrow Labor hold (if the optimistic scenario is correct) to a not-that-close-at-all-actually loss.

[Smid]

Lilley has significantly better boundaries for Labor, compared to 1996. It is possible Antony Green's electorate page shows previous boundaries (it does for at least some other seats in some other states, overlaid on google maps). If not, Lilley lost Ascot/Clayfield/Hamilton at the last redistribution (these were transferred to Brisbane). I think the area it gained from Petrie to compensate for this is vaguely Liberal, but certainly not to the same extent. The redistribution was prior to the 2010 election (prior to 2007, too, I think, but could be wrong).

This is part of the reason Brisbane is Liberal-held presently, but not in 1996. In 1996, Brisbane included South Brisbane, West End, and Highgate Hill, which, as posters will recall, is much of the reason South Brisbane is one of the few Labor-held state seats after 2012. These booths almost certainly are what saved Arch Bevis in 1996, and why Griffith is a safer seat today than it was then.

These two reasons combined have resulted in Brisbane becoming the current Liberal-held seat it is today. There has also been significant demographic change in some suburbs there, too (my opinion... Sometimes these things can seem bigger than reality assesses, I may do some Census mapping when time permits to ascertain the precise impact of this, will post results here if I do...).

EDIT: I should also add - the reason Lilley has been historically low-swinging, but lower margin, is because it was a fairly polarised electorate with strong votes for each party in different parts of the electorate, but relatively low numbers of actual swinging voters.

[TommyC1776]

What time do the polls close?

[morgieb]

What time do the polls close?

6pm.

[Smid]

Over 1.4 million pre-poll votes cast, and 1.3 million postal votes cast.

[Hatman 🍁]

What time do the polls close?

6pm.

Or 4AM Eastern.

[RogueBeaver]

The Age endorses Labor, unsurprisingly.

[TommyC1776]

Thanks. Not sure ill be up for the first results but will try and see the later results as they come in when I wake up Saturday.

What time do the polls close?

6pm.

Or 4AM Eastern.

[GAworth]

I am skeptical of polls. All over the world they have been off. I do expect Labor will loose but who knows how bad and the Senate will most likely be a hung parliament.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

As promised, here are my predictions:

Adelaide (ALP 7.5%)
Kate Ellis is a prominent member of the government, although she was one of only two incumbents in South Australia to have a swing against her last time. Will depend on both the overall performance of the Liberals in SA, and Ellis’ performance as a minister. I personally think Ellis will retain, narrowly.
 
Aston (LIB 0.7%)
Labor have done well in Victoria over the past two cycles, although I expect Aston to become safer for the Liberals.

Ballarat (ALP 11.7%)
Labor retain, unless there is a large swing in regional Victoria, which I can’t see happening here.
 
Banks (ALP 1.5%)
Although very marginal, Banks had a strong swing to the Liberals last time, which may be hard to top. Looking like a Liberal gain now.
 
Barker (LIB 13.0%)
Liberal retain.
 
Barton (ALP 6.9%)
Normally a Labor stronghold, sitting MP Robert McClelland is retiring, although Labor should hold this narrowly.
 
Bass (ALP 6.7%)
Given the strong movement away from Labor in Tasmania, Liberal gain.
 
Batman (ALP 24.8%)
Labor retain.
 
Bendigo (ALP 9.4%)
Like Ballarat, the Liberals should only pick this up in the event of a large swing back to them in regional Victoria.
 
Bennelong (LIB 3.1%)
The Liberals should strengthen their hold here, despite Labor’s choice of candidate.
 
Berowra (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Blair (ALP 4.2%)
ALP retain, as Labor’s situation has improved in Queensland since the last election with the return of Rudd.
 
Blaxland (ALP 12.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Bonner (LNP 2.8%)
Should become safer for the LNP.
 
Boothby (LIB 0.3%)
Although Andrew Southcott suffered a 2.2% swing against him last time, in addition to the last redistribution weakening his already slim hold on the seat, the last election was something of a high watermark for Labor in South Australia, so he should be returned here fairly easily.
 
Bowman (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.
 
Braddon (ALP 7.5%)
Liberal gain, even if Sid Sidebottom is popular.
 
Bradfield (LIB 18.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Brand (ALP 3.3%)
Labor have always held this seat since its creation in 1984, although they have come close to losing it before, most notably in 1996. One to watch, although this would be significantly safer for Labor on the figures of the last state election. On current polling, Labor hold.

Brisbane (LNP 1.1%)
Not a traditional conservative seat, an LNP member for this seat would normally be an anomaly. Given the anti-Labor climate in Queensland at the moment, I’d expect the LNP to hold on to this seat, although Rudd’s return may change things...
 
Bruce (ALP 7.7%)
Although held by Labor since 1996, 2013 has seen this seat become somewhat vulnerable for the first time in a long time. Still Labor in my book though.
 
Calare (NAT 10.7%)
National retain.
 
Calwell (ALP 20.0%)
Labor retain.
 
Canberra (ALP 9.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Canning (LIB 2.2%)
Liberal retain, probably with an increased majority.
 
Capricornia (ALP 3.7%)
One to watch, given the sitting member is retiring and the still-grim climate for Labor in Queensland. Now looking like a ALP hold, particularly with the Katter vote.
 
Casey (LIB 1.9%)
Liberal retain.
 
Charlton (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.
 
Chifley (ALP 12.3%)
Labor retain.
 
Chisholm (ALP 5.8%)
On current polling, Labor hold, Burke favouring from being Speaker and incumbency. Would be Liberal held on state figures.
 
Cook (LIB 12.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Corangamite (ALP 0.3%)
Should be an easy Liberal gain.
 
Corio (ALP 13.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Cowan (LIB 6.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Cowper (NAT 9.3%)
National retain.
 
Cunningham (ALP 13.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Curtin (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Dawson (LNP 2.4%)
Likely LNP retain.
 
Deakin (ALP 0.6%)
Liberal gain, particularly after the last redistribution added areas such as Ringwood to the seat.
 
Denison (IND 1.2% vs ALP)
Andrew Wilkie has been a strong member, and should be re-elected easily.
 
Dickson (LNP 5.1%)
LNP retain.
 
Dobell (ALP 5.1%)
Considering what has happened to the sitting member, Craig Thomson, over the past few years, this should be an easy Liberal gain.
 
Dunkley (LIB 1.1%)
Liberal retain, despite the small margin.
 
Durack (LIB 13.7%)
With Barry Haase retiring, this is a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals. National gain, but with no confidence.
 
Eden-Monaro (ALP 4.2%)
A bellwether seat since 1972, Mike Kelly is a strong member, although the seat’s bellwether tendencies should continue to remain true in 2013.
 
Fadden (LNP 14.2%)
LNP retain.
 
Fairfax (LNP 7.0%)
LNP retain, although Clive Palmer will likely come second.
 
Farrer (LIB 14.5%)
Liberal retain.
 
Fisher (LNP 4.1%)
Peter Slipper, like Craig Thomson, has made quite a mess of himself, and the LNP should win this one back.
 
Flinders (LIB 9.1%)
Liberal retain.
 
Flynn (LNP 3.6%)
LNP retain.
 
Forde (LNP 1.6%)
Peter Beattie’s sudden candidacy has made this a toss-up, I’d still favour the LNP here though.
 
Forrest (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Fowler (ALP 8.8%)
Likely Labor retain, although this could become quite marginal.
 
Franklin (ALP 10.8%)
One to watch, this could go either way, especially with current Tasmanian polling.
 
Fraser (ALP 14.2%)
Labor retain.
 
Fremantle (ALP 5.7%)
Labor retain.
 
Gellibrand (ALP 24.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Gilmore (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain, despite Joanna Gash’s retirement.
 
Gippsland (NAT 11.5%)
National retain.
 
Goldstein (LIB 6.0%)
Liberal retain.
 
Gorton (ALP 23.6%)
Labor retain.
 
Grayndler (ALP 20.6%)
This seat only has a 4.2% margin against the Greens, although Anthony Albanese is a strong member, and the Greens have gone down in polling over the past 3 years.
 
Grey (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Greenway (ALP 0.9%)
Likely Liberal gain, despite the horrible choice of Liberal candidate.
 
Griffith (ALP 8.5%)
Despite a couple of polls suggesting Rudd may lose here, he should be safe.
 
Groom (LNP 18.5%)
LNP retain.
 
Hasluck (LIB 0.7%)
Likely Liberal retain, although if Labor is to gain any seats in WA in 2013, this is the most likely gain.
 
Herbert (LNP 2.2%)
Likely LNP retain, although Katter’s party and the return of Rudd could pose a significant challenge.
 
Higgins (LIB 5.4%)
Liberal retain.
 
Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1%)
The seat most likely to be lost by Labor in South Australia, I’ll go with a Liberal gain, but with no confidence.
 
Hinkler (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.
 
Holt (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain, although I expect a large swing against them here.

Hotham (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain.
 
Hughes (LIB 5.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Hume (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Hunter (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Indi (LIB 9.0%)
Cathy McGowan is a strong independent, and this is now a seat to watch. If I had to choose, a narrow Liberal hold.
 
Isaacs (ALP 10.4%)
Labor retain, unless the swing in Victoria is large.
 
Jagajaga (ALP 11.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Kennedy (KAP 18.3% vs LNP)
Bob Katter should win easily, although with a swing against him.
 
Kingsford Smith (ALP 5.2%)
Normally an easy win for Labor, 2013 could see this seat go Liberal for the first time, although I’d still favour Labor here, narrowly.
 
Kingston (ALP 14.5%)
Hard to call, the Labor margin is VERY over-inflated, so there could be a large swing back to the Liberals this year. The swing will most likely not be enough for the Liberals to pick this up, though.   
 
Kooyong (LIB 7.5%)
Liberal retain.
 
La Trobe (ALP 1.7%)
Key contest, likely a Liberal gain.
 
Lalor (ALP 22.1%)
Labor retain.
 
Leichhardt (LNP 4.6%)
LNP retain, even with the KAP.
 
Lilley (ALP 3.2%)
A prize target for the LNP, Lilley will likely be a narrow Labor hold in 2013.
 
Lindsay (ALP 1.1%)
Liberal gain.
 
Lingiari (ALP 3.7%)
Normally a Labor seat, the significant swings to the CLP in last year’s NT election may be repeated here, in which case the CLP could easily win this. Current polling reflects this, and Lingiari is a CLP gain in my book.
 
Longman (LNP 1.9%)
LNP retain.
 
Lyne (IND 12.7% vs NAT)
National gain.
 
Lyons (ALP 12.3%)
Like Franklin, this is hard to pin down, it could go either way, although Labor have more of a chance here, thanks to Dick Adams’ personal vote and a higher margin.

Macarthur (LIB 3.0%)
Liberal retain.
 
Mackellar (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Macquarie (LIB 1.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
Makin (ALP 12.0%)
Hard to call, the margin is quite over-inflated, although Tony Zappia is quite popular. This is an outer-suburban swing area though, and very much in play. Still a Labor hold in my book.
 
Mallee (NAT 23.3%)
The first real contest here since 1993, both the Nationals and the Liberals have a good chance here, although I’m going with the Nationals.
 
Maranoa (LNP 22.9%)
LNP retain.
 
Maribyrnong (ALP 17.5%)
Labor retain.
 
Mayo (LIB 7.3%)
Liberal retain.
 
McEwen (ALP 9.2%)
Strengthened for Labor in the last redistribution, they should hold on here, I’d expect it to go back to more marginal territory though.
 
McMahon (ALP 7.8%)
Normally safe Labor, McMahon could surprise in 2013, although since the return of Rudd, this should stay red.
 
McMillan (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
McPherson (LNP 10.3%)
LNP retain.
 
Melbourne (GRN 6.0% vs ALP)
The Green tide has receded somewhat, and this could be enough to kick Adam Bandt out of office. Given Liberal preferences, Labor should narrowly regain this.
 
Melbourne Ports (ALP 7.9%)
Likely Labor retain, unless the Liberal swing is very strong.
 
Menzies (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
 
Mitchell (LIB 17.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Moncrieff (LNP 17.5%)
LNP retain.
 
Moore (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.
 
Moreton (ALP 1.1%)
Graham Perrett is fairly popular, although should lose his seat the way the ALP are going in Queensland. Rudd’s return has complicated things somewhat here. Probably the most likely LNP pick-up, if I had to go one way, I say narrow LNP gain.
 
Murray (LIB 19.6%)
Liberal retain.

Due to the character limit, my predictions will be continued in the next post.