Australia - 7 September 2013

[morgieb]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

Uh... yeah.

The polling is actually closer this year than this point before 1996 and 2007. I say anyone expecting a 1996-2007-like result is probably in for a disappointment.

I don't know about 1996, but didn't Labor only establish a convincing lead in 2007 when Rudd became the leader?

[morgieb]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

Uh... yeah.

The polling is actually closer this year than this point before 1996 and 2007. I say anyone expecting a 1996-2007-like result is probably in for a disappointment.

I don't know about 1996, but didn't Labor only establish a convincing lead in 2007 when Rudd became the leader?

Nope, Labor led consistently throughout 2006... the massive 10%+ leads came after Rudd yes, but Beazley had a lot of 53-47 polls (that actual 2007 election result)...  the issue was preferred PM, Howard was ahead 54-25.

Interesting poll I found from April 2001... the poll was "who do you think is likely to win the election"

ALP: 65%
Coalition: 23%...

In fact the Government was in deep trouble until August 2001... then it all turned around.

So going by the patterns....

* Both parties only get a technical majority after sweeping into power (1998 Libs lost the 2PP result, 2010 Labor were forced into supply + confidence agreements to keep the majority)
* Both parties are pretty unpopular, but then things start to go their way, and they eventually gain momentum and win.

It's unclear if that stays solid, but it's interesting. Particularly given the only party that failed to stay in power for 10+ years in recent times was Whitlam's government, and there isn't any scandals of a similar magnitude (or are there?)

[morgieb]

My current predictions:

Adelaide - Narrow Labor hold, Liberals beat Labor on primary votes.
Aston - Liberal hold, likely to swing big.
Ballarat - Labor hold, potential for a large swing.
Banks - Liberal gain (Labor 71, LNP 74)
Barker - Liberal hold
Barton - Hard to say, looks very tight. I lean towards a Liberal gain (Labor 70, LNP 75)
Bass - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 69, LNP 76)
Batman - Labor hold. Liberals finish 2nd on primary votes.
Bendigo - Hard to say. Narrow Labor hold, big swing due to a retiring member.
Bennelong - Liberal hold
Berowra - Liberal hold
Blair - Very hard to call. Labor hold...barely.
Blaxland - Labor hold
Bonner - Liberal hold
Bowman - Liberal hold
Boothby - Liberal hold, Southcott finally gets a swing towards him.
Braddon - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 68, LNP 77)
Bradfield - Liberal hold
Brand - Narrow Labor hold, swing in WA is smaller and ALP somewhat held their own here at the state election.
Brisbane - Narrow Liberal hold. One of the few seats Labor has a hope of regaining.
Bruce - Would be very vulnerable if Brumby won in  2010, but too much of a stretch to see the ALP lose here. Narrow Labor hold.
Calare - National hold.
Calwell - Labor hold
Canberra - Labor hold.
Canning - Liberal hold - if Labor couldn't win this with MacTerinan, they can't win it now.
Capricornia - Will come down to Katter preferences. Remember the ALP still won state seats here even in 2012.
Casey - Liberal hold, expect it to swing large.
Charlton - Labor hold
Chifley - Labor hold
Chisholm - If Burke wasn't Speaker it'd be vulnerable, but for now it's a narrow Labor hold.
Cook - Liberal hold
Corangamite - Liberal gain (Labor 67, LNP 78)
Corio - Labor hold
Cowan - Liberal hold
Cowper - National hold
Cunningham - Labor hold
Curtin - Liberal hold

I'll do the rest at a later date. Comments and critique is appreciated.

[morgieb]

Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

As Smid said, it's Maribyrnong. One of the few safe seats. But would he want a poisoned chalise?

Who will be the next leader post-Gillard? Swan makes sense but he's in a lot of strife for re-election IIRC. I can't see the party going Rudd, Bowen's also in danger, Combet's from the Left, and as I said it'd be bloody stupid for Shorten to run.

Smith or Crean maybe?

[morgieb]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

How did you handle Eden-Monaro? As a Canberra-suburb-ACT-small-swing, or as a NSW swing?

Queanbeyan will be driven more by ACT, so the swing will be lower there... but I know the coastal towns will be more coalition-friendly... I think E-M can be held on to, largely because Mike Kelly has established a strong presence as the local MP and the electoral shifts support increased ALP presence in the largest population area... I've given it to the Coalition... but it's going to very, very tight. Especially considering in 2010, Kelly was the only NSW ALP MP to get a swing TO him.

Craig Thomson and Janelle Saffin did too.

[morgieb]

I still have a hard time that Labor will go Rudd this late in the game, unfortunately.

[morgieb]

His impact is over-rated as well, although the election will be more like 2001 than say 1975.

[morgieb]

One MP, John Murphy, has publicly called on Gillard to resign. Dunno what his factional allegiance is. I assume he's a Ruddite since presumably they'd mention if he wasn't.

On the Right IIRC.

Few people in the NSW Labor party support Gillard IIRC.

[morgieb]

My spies are estimating that the Coalition will gain 13 in NSW, 6 in VIC, 2-4 in SA, 2 in TAS, 4 in QLD and WA will break even.

[morgieb]

In 1993, 2001 and 2004, all the incumbent governments got lucky.

* 1993 - Hewson's economic policies were seen as too dry, and he couldn't defend them well.
* 2001 - 9/11 and Tampa helped Howard reinforce a reputation of foreign security, Beazley played the campaign too safely.
* 2004 - Latham picked up a reputation as a thug due to the handshake and breaking taxi-drivers arms, and his key policies were too left-wing for middle Australia.

If Abbott was gonna do one of these circuit-breakers, it would've already happened.

[morgieb]

I just can't wait to see the looks on the LGBT rights activists faces if Louise Pratt is defeated while Joe Bullock is elected instead of her. It would be hilarious.

Pratt is #2 on the ticket, Labor would REALLY need to  up if only one of them won.

[morgieb]

What does everyone make of Rudd's chances of returning?

I'd say 50/50 at this stage. Gillard's main hope is the support of Cabinet.

[morgieb]

I know it's random and obtuse... but watch tomorrow.

So you think someone is gonna call a spill? Very interesting.

[morgieb]

I can't. News are major ****s.

[morgieb]

It's likely that SA and Tasmania lose anyway.

However, it'll probably mean that Labor has a chance in Victoria at least. With wall-to-wall Liberal governments, the baseball bats won't be out for long.

[morgieb]

Apparently Gillard saying she'd retire if she loses, and is calling on the other loser to do so too.

Labor may be wiped out in Queensland if Gillard wins.

[morgieb]

Apparently Gillard saying she'd retire if she loses, and is calling on the other loser to do so too.

Labor may be wiped out in Queensland if Gillard wins.

Labor won't lose Griffith simply because Rudd isn't the candidate. It's possible it could lose the seat, but that would only be if they picked a poor candidate who proceeded to make numerous campaign mistakes, and it coincided with a conservative "wave" election.

tbf his personal vote is apparently massive. Though it's only measuring primary votes.

Rudd would hold Griffith, but his replacement may not.

[morgieb]

A) Overnight poll B) Morgan C) Honeymoon. Rudd hasn't changed. 457s are still on the agenda, BTW.

While that might be relevant in theory, the SMS polls by Morgan are in fact quite accurate.

[morgieb]

Am I not properly reading? It's only a bump, I suppose?

That and Roy Morgan are pretty ALP-leaning.

[morgieb]

Good news for Kevin Rudd, though Morgan is very ALP-leaning (although this is multi-node rather than purely F2F....).

ER's results don't really change much as IIRC their sample stays consistent as it's a panel...so movement is less likely to be flaky.

[morgieb]

I'd still wait for more polls...but the signs are good that the bounce is sticking with the ALP largely.

[morgieb]

I wouldn't be happy with a September date because of the footy finals.

But if he goes October it could be seen as too late, whereas August is a little too early.

[morgieb]

So out of the current dates possible:

* August 31 - Pros: not a lot of issues on that date, seen as a good way of ramming home any advantage. Cons: Potentially too early to get any form of incumbency. A similar tactic fell flat for Gillard in 2010.
* September 7 - Cons: too soon to the G20 summit, where Australia is gaining prestige chairmanship. AFL finals.
* September 14 - Cons: clashes with Yom Kippur. AFL and NRL finals.
* September 21 - Pros: Early enough to eliminate uncertainty about election dates. Cons: AFL and NRL finals, though as these are at night it is probably less of a concern than another day.
* September 28 - Cons: AFL Grand Final day. Not going to fly.
* October 5 - Cons: Long weekend, school holidays in many states, NRL Grand Final weekend.
* October 12 - Cons: Bali Bombing anniversary, and would probably harm Rudd's chances of re-election if he put it on this day.
* October 19 - Pros: Gives Rudd time to garner a sense of incumbency, but probably as early as possible without being too late. Cons: Parliament would have to sit again, and it is possible that a constitutional crisis will emerge.
* October 26 - Pros: See October 19.
* November - Cons: Perceived at being too late, and potentially scared of the polls.

Anything I've missed? Anything you disagree with?

[morgieb]

And it's not like he's removing a carbon tax. He's just merely pushing the time Australia goes from a fixed price to a variable price forward.

Whether it'll pass the Senate though is another matter.

[morgieb]

Hmmm those seem like interesting preference flows.

The fact that the polls have only got to 50/50 isn't great news for Rudd, but if they hold, it gives Labor a big chance they didn't have.