Australia - 7 September 2013

[Talleyrand]

I stand by my prediction of a 54-46 coalition win in the 2PP... huge swings against the government in Tasmania and New South Wales, etc...

[Talleyrand]

There were more Laborites in 1996 and Liberals in 2007 available to quit than there are Laborites right now, but was there a similar sense of imminent doom at this point in those cycles?

[Talleyrand]

Meanwhile a Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun gives the Coalition a slightly less pungent lead of 54-46.
It would be interesting to see the state by state breakdown of these polls. Does Galaxy and Newspoll publish them?

I doubt the results of the Western Australian election next month (in which it is looking likely that Labor will get smashed), will provide any uplifting support for the government.

Newspoll publishes their state by state breakdown every three months- I don't know about Galaxy.

[Talleyrand]

The Western Australian Labor Party Executive has just decided to drop openly gay senator Louise Pratt from the top of the Senate ticket and replace her with an anti-gay social conservative in Joe Bullock. If current polling holds up, Labor may struggle to get more than one senator elected from WA.

Clown show.

I can't believe I missed it, but that's disgusting. Labor (including Gillard) need to stop their social conservative pandering; it's been nothing but a hindrance for the party and makes them look like complete tools (which some of them are, obviously). I hope Pratt is reinstated to the top position and not bounced for some union shill.

[Talleyrand]

PVO talks of 1975 redux (40-50 Lab seats, towards the lower end) as being "smart money": basically today's polls hold till E-Day. I trust him, but that seems a tad optimistic to me.

So the smart money is on around 45 Labor seats? I'm a pessimist, but even I doubt they'll fall that low. I expect the final margin to be around 54% for the coalition, a narrow tightening from what we're seeing now, but enough to allow Abbott to command a massive majority on the floor of the House.

[Talleyrand]

I think of the independents, Wilkie is the safest, Oakeshott has no chance, and Windsor if in between, but I expect him to lose.

How does Windsor have a chance at all when the most recent poll (albeit conducted last year, when Richard Torbay was the candidate, instead of Barnaby Joyce) had his primary vote at 25% and his TPP vote at 34%? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me, even though he's been there for ages.

[Talleyrand]

Looks like the polls have been pretty stable for three to four months? Are they likely to remain like this until election day, or could they be liable to significant tightening (like the 2007 election)? Still, I don't see a path to Labor victory at all under the current circumstances...

I suggest that the ALP do that the BC Liberals did when similarly unpopular - run a relentlessly negative campaign that is full of personal attacks and innuendo about Tony Abbott and make people scared sh**tless about what an Abbott-led government would actually mean for Australia. Wasn't it in 1993 that the ALP was supposed to lose and they unexpectedly won by making people scared of what John Howard would do...

I disagree with this, since Gillard needs to show firm leadership and stay above the fray. I think one of her biggest problems comes in the form of the feeling that she is not authoritative enough in her role, and has resorted to permanent pandering to hold onto her position at all costs, and that's something she needs to break out of. Personal attacks aren't going to work either; the success of the Liberal strategy in B.C. was fear of an NDP-led economy, not Adrian Dix's personality.

I'm not sure the '93 Keating-Hewson race serves as a good parallel to today's situation either. Keating, despite his unpopularity at the time, was still seen as a competent, powerful Prime Minister, and made the basis of his attack on the Coalition's proposed policies (e.g. the GST), which Abbott really hasn't given many of today.

[Talleyrand]

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http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/1511828/poll-shows-windsor-ahead/?src=rss

Some sort of internal poll (primary only) shows Tony Windsor leading Barnaby Joyce in New England, which corroborates what Smid and Polnut were suggesting earlier- that he may not in fact be a dead man walking. I'm not sure what the pollster's track record is or even if it has one, but if this has some credibility, it's welcome news.

[Talleyrand]

The story in May 2014:

Labor out of power everywhere except ACT!

Amazing how quickly things have changed in Australia the last few years; it's hard to believe Labor was in power in every state as recently as 2008 and had a (then) incredibly popular Prime Minister in Kevin Rudd. As much as I prefer them to the Coalition, they will be living with the aftermath of their poor decisions the last few years for another decade at the very least...

[Talleyrand]

It'll probably just end up being Gillard and Swan being re-elected unanimously in a Labor party ballot if it comes to anything, just like the last time. Nothing much to see here- Rudd won't challenge and no one else will run or be able to oust her.

[Talleyrand]

I'm not surprised Oakeshott is opposed to the Bill. I believe he quit the Nationals for personal reasons, but linked to the way in which an Australian who had immigrated here was being treated at branch functions.

I recall that it was racism towards his Aboriginal wife, although I could be incorrect on that. Either way, the bill strikes me as unacceptable, and Abbott for once is 100% correct on its implications.

It'll probably just end up being Gillard and Swan being re-elected unanimously in a Labor party ballot if it comes to anything, just like the last time. Nothing much to see here- Rudd won't challenge and no one else will run or be able to oust her.

Yeah if Rudd actually wants to be leader and PM again, it would make much more sense for him to let Gillard take all the fall and blame for the inevitable election defeat of doom, and sweep in an take over after that.

Well, considering how much caucus loathes him, this may be his last best opportunity to retake the Prime Minister's office. But what does he want to be remembered as; the man who led Labor to its worst defeat since 1975 or the wronged former leader who could have saved the party? 

[Talleyrand]

Under current numbers, the Coalition would hold over 100 seats after the election, assuming uniform swings in each state, and I don't see how Gillard, who has lost all credibility with most of the public at this point is going to make up much ground (I'm beginning to doubt whether she can ever keep the 2PP at 45% or 46% even). I don't expect Rudd to take the poisoned chalice (and there's doubt on whether he even has the numbers) and even if he did, I don't think he could dig Labor far out of this hole. Labor's likely headed for at least three terms of opposition, as a defeat of that magnitude will be quite difficult to recover from.

Another trend I'm seeing is that Abbott's numbers, while not good by any means, are steadily recovering and far outpacing Gillard. She'd probably kill to be at 43/54.

[Talleyrand]

There will be a leadership ballot tomorrow at 9 A.M., if the Daily Telegraph is to be believed. Rudd supporters have gathered enough signatures to push for a spill, and apparently it has been confirmed that he plans to contest it.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/kevin-rudd-to-challenge-pm-julia-gillard-for-labor-leadership-tomorrow-morning/story-e6freuy9-1226670143790

...I'm still skeptical on this. If I had to make a bet, I'd say he stays out and she's elected unopposed, again.

[Talleyrand]

What specifically does this mean for Labor in Queensland?

Current polling has Labor on 40.0% of the 2PP vote in the state, which would mean the party would lose half of its seats in the state (I suspect Petrie, Moreton, Blair, and Lilley/Blair), although the loss of Emerson's personal vote in Rankin could do some severe damage there. Rudd will perform better in the state than Gillard could have ever hoped to do so, but I don't he'll be able to prevent the loss of 3-4 seats.

[Talleyrand]

What specifically does this mean for Labor in Queensland?

Current polling has Labor on 40.0% of the 2PP vote in the state, which would mean the party would lose half of its seats in the state (I suspect Petrie, Moreton, Blair, and Lilley/Blair), although the loss of Emerson's personal vote in Rankin could do some severe damage there. Rudd will perform better in the state than Gillard could have ever hoped to do so, but I don't he'll be able to prevent the loss of 3-4 seats.

You mention Blair twice, did you mean Capricornia or Oxley when you said Lilley/Blair?

Capricornia, sorry. I don't think Oxley will fall.

[Talleyrand]

I'm obviously not in a place to be able to say, but this just doesn't seem like a change election, especially if the ALP can play on the buyer's remorse in Victoria and Queensland.

In Victoria, I think they are effectively maxed out in terms of seats, so Rudd's goal will probably be to maintain the marginals like La Trobe and Corangamite if at all possible. 2010 appears to have been a high-water mark in the state, although Labor's quite lucky that the Baillieu/Napthine government has been in power, rather than the Brumby government, as that will reduce the (likely) swing against them.

If the "swing" towards Labor in Queensland persists until election day, Rudd probably has a decent chance to pick up seats like Longman and Brisbane (there are 6-8 marginal LNP seats in the state), although I'm still skeptical that'll persist. However, it does look like Labor will probably be able maintain at least 8 seats in the state, while that looked close to impossible when Gillard was at the helm.

[Talleyrand]

Turnbull, unlike Abbott, seems like a credible Prime Ministerial candidate to many middle Australians, I would wager. He's seen as a reassuring, moderate figure while Abbott has been portrayed (somewhat truthfully) to be an extreme reactionary. That wasn't a huge problem for Abbott as Opposition Leader, as Gillard lost all her clout with the electorate some point in her Prime Ministership, but Rudd still has the voters' ears. Now they may start thinking more about what an Abbott PMship would be like, and I suspect many of them don't particularly fancy the idea. That's probably Rudd's biggest weapon right now and why the polls are close.

[Talleyrand]

Nielsen state by state

NSW - 50/50
VIC - 51/49 ALP
QLD - 51/49 Coalition
SA/NT - 52/48 ALP
WA - 52/48 Coaliton

... but not enough data for TAS

What I find incredible about this is how everything seems to have moved closer to the 50-50 line from the 2010 election (obviously I don't expect it to stay this way but it's fun for sure).

Here is 2010 with the Nielsen poll in parentheses.

NSW- 51/49 Coalition (50/50)
VIC- 55/45 ALP (51/49 ALP)
QLD- 55/45 Coalition (51/49 Coalition)
SA/NT- 53/47 ALP (52/48 ALP)
WA- 56/44 Coalition (52/48 Coalition)

(On a uniform swing this would result in a 79-68 Labor majority according to Antony Green's pendulum, with the ALP gaining 7 seats in QLD, while a gain of 3 in WA cancels out the Coalition gaining 3 in VIC.)

Tasmania went 61/39 ALP in 2010, but polling pre-Rudd installation showed massive swings against the government in the state, enough to cost all or all but one of its seats. The only poll I've seen post-Rudd was the Morgan snap poll which had ALP at 63/37 in the state, so we'll probably have to reserve judgement on what's going on there, although I anticipate a swing against the ALP, simply due to the extreme unpopularity of the state ALP government.

[Talleyrand]

I'm still not convinced an August election is the way to go, even though Polnut thinks that Rudd has already established his legitimacy as PM. Rudd can't hope to win this election based on his resurgent popularity alone, and he needs more gaffes from Abbott to have a chance. I think that's possible, but he'll need to risk drawing it out to October in that case. It's sort of like what Paul Keating said to John Hewson in 1992 when the latter challenged him to call a snap election; "I want to do you slowly".

That said, the longer he waits, the more unstable he might make Abbott's leadership, but as Peter Brent has pointed out, that paradoxically makes them more likely to bring back Turnbull, which would doom him.

[Talleyrand]

What a piece of s--t.  Never thought he'd sink this low.

What happened?

...This happened.

[Talleyrand]

How significant is first term incumbency in australian elections? Strongest swings to ALP in QLD and to LIB in VIC I take it?

I would anticipate a swing to the ALP in Queensland simply because they no longer have the burden of Gillard or the unpopular state Labor government which existed at the time of the 2010 election. The restoration of Rudd is pivotal to this, as Queenslanders are quite parochial and he still retains a fair bit of popularity in his home state. Campbell Newman's LNP government and its "austerity" program might be a wedge issue which could help Labor there, although I wouldn't expect to them win more than 2-4 additional seats if the election were held today (and these would be offset by losses elsewhere). If Labor does somehow win, it will be because they held the line around the rest of the country and made significant gains in Queensland.

As for Victoria, Labor is probably maxed out there after their huge win in 2010. Hughento mentioned that there's only one seat which Labor could conceivably win that they don't already hold (Dunkley IIRC). There will be a pretty significant swing against Labor here, and it'll cost them 2-4 seats most likely, if not more. It would have been worse, had the state ALP government held on in 2010.

[Talleyrand]

On a slightly unrelated note, is it just me or do others also think that both Julia Gillard's and Tony Abbott's accents of Australian English are stronger than Kevin Rudd's?

I've noticed this too. Abbott seems to have a generic Australian accent, while Gillard has been described by some sources as having a "bogan" or working-class accent. I've also read that Kevin Rudd, having worked as a diplomat for a number of years, has never completely learned how to "speak Australian". Obviously I don't know enough about Aussie accents to determine for sure.

Also, does anyone here think that any of Labor's seats in South Australia will fall? I know the state government is highly unpopular and the party's coming off a high-water mark in 2010, but the most marginal seat is held by 6.1%. It seems like there will almost certainly be a negative swing; the question is how big it'll be.

[Talleyrand]

FWIW.... my current prediction (which will definitely change) aligns with the Poll-Bludger tracker.

ALP: 70
Coalition: 77
Others: 3

TPP 51-49

Senate essentially stays as is.

This is definitely possible, but the Current Poll Bludger prediction seems a bit weird. He has Labor losing only 1 in Victoria, while gaining none in Queensland and gaining 3 in Western Australia (although he admitted his model does not account for the loss of Alannah MacTiernan's candidacy in Canning).

My current prediction is a little bit more pessimistic than yours, but not too far off.

ALP: 65
Coalition: 82
Others: 3

TPP 52-48

Not sure what'll happen in the Senate, but I'd guess a couple seats lost for the ALP/Green "coalition".

[Talleyrand]

Former O'Connor MP Wilson "Ironbar" Tuckey offers his thoughts on Kevin Rudd, Peter Beattie, and the upcoming federal election.

When is the debate between Rudd and Abbott scheduled?

[Talleyrand]

So, based roughly on Poll Bludger (looking at their prediction, feeding it into the pendulum, shifting a couple seats around to account for local factors), I got this prediction as of Sunday August 11:

New South Wales: The Coalition picks up Lyne and New England from the independents; Dobell falls to the Coalition as well due to fallout from Thomson, as well as two more marginal seats (Robertson and Lindsay). The most marginal seat, Greenway, stays with the ALP.

Victoria: The Liberals picks up 3 seats -- Deakin, Corangamite, and laTrobe.

Tasmania: The Liberals pick up 2 seats -- Bass and Braddon.

Queensland: The LNP retakes Slipper's seat. Other than that, the ALP and LNP 'trade' seats, with the ALP picking up Forde while the LNP, on a tiny statewide swing to them, flips Moreton.

Western Australia: The ALP picks up 2 seats -- Hasluck and Swan. Without MacTiernan, they'll be hard-pressed in Canning, so I think that'll be a Lib hold.

South Australia, Territories: Rather significant swings to the Coalition, but I don't think it'll be quite enough anywhere, although Snowdon and Georganas should be watching their backs.

Third parties: I do think Bandt will narrowly survive in Melbourne; polls have shown him in the mid-to-high-40s on first preferences, and I think that's high enough that if he can get even low twenties% of the Liberal voters to buck their how-to-vote cards and vote for him (which I think is reasonable), he can win. The ALP should be closer on 2PP, but Bandt will survive. In Denison, it seems likely that the ALP, the Libs, and the Greens will all have Wilkie as their second choice, and since he'll probably be in first place on first preferences I can't see him losing. Katter is safe. Palmer just wants attention, I don't think he'll break 20% on first preferences.

Summary: 81-66 Coalition majority. Bandt, Katter, and Wilkie sit on the crossbenches, which won't really matter in the House. The Senate is either a continued ALP/Greens majority or, if not, then ten degrees of fustercluck. In all likelihood without a larger Coalition victory the Senate will be so hostile Abbott will have to make the next election double dissolution.

NSW: I'm not convinced the regional seats (Dobell and Robertson) are going to fall, and I would wager the Western Sydney seats of Banks and Reid are actually a lot more vulnerable. I think Deb O'Neill's sophomore surge will pull her through, and while the ALP will suffer a nasty swing in Dobell, they'll hold it by the skin of their teeth on preferences. So I think the ALP loses Greenway, Lindsay (for sure), Reid, and Banks.

VIC: 100% in agreement. And Mallee will go to the Liberals.

TAS: 100% in agreement.

QLD: I'm going to go ahead and predict Brisbane falls to the ALP, while Beattie falls to pick up Forde and the boy wonder narrowly holds on in Longman. I don't think any of the ALP seats are in danger right now except Moreton, but I think that one will narrowly stay with them. I'll go ahead and put it as a draw though.

WA: Color me confused as to this sudden optimism about Western Australia Bowe has. The state government has been lackluster, but Barnett's still decently popular and it's not really a wedge issue. 5 seats would be a stronger performance here than Rudd achieved in 2007, and I think Ken Wyatt is strong enough to hold Hasluck. I don't see Swan moving either right now. The swing here won't be too large either way.

SA/NT/ACT: I think Hindmarsh is gone. The swings in South Australia will be immense, but luckily most of the ALP's six seats are on huge margins and come with a solid buffer. The aging, unpopular state government and Gillard effect from 2010 are fading away, and it'll be ugly. As for the Northern Territory, I think it'll be interesting. In the state election last year, Labor suffered huge swings to the CLP in the aboriginal regional areas, but did quite well in Darwin, and even received a large swing in a state seat byelection a few months ago. Both Snowdon and Griggs need to watch their backs, although I'd say Snowdon's a bit more vulnerable.

Third Parties: Denison and Kennedy are solid for the incumbents, and I tend to agree that Bandt's primary vote will (probably) save him in the end, although it'll be tighter than 2010. Not safe by any means though.

Senate: Labor will lose seats in Queensland (to KAP) and Tasmania (to the Liberals), I'm going to go ahead and wager. Possibly Western Australia (one of the ALP/Labor seats to the WA Nationals)too, which would mean that the ALP/Green coalition will lose its ability to block legislation since they'd only hold 37/76 seats. Predicting these is a bit more difficult though so I could be completely incorrect.

Summary: 85-62 Coalition Majority. ALP/Greens with 37 seats in the Senate. Coalition and allies with 36. Madigan, Xenophon, and Katter's guy holding the balance of power.

Admittedly, a lot of this is based on gut feeling, but it'll be interesting to see how close these predictions are.