Australia - 7 September 2013

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This will be an interesting campaign and election, that's for sure!

Way too early to make seat-by-seat predictions, but I predict a Coalition majority.

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It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.

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It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.

There are about 3 seats in VIC that could fall in a very small swing to the ALP... considering the polling in VIC has the ALP up 10% TPP... those seats would fall in a uniform swing.

That's from the latest poll for the state Labor party, not the federal one. The latest federal poll that included Victorian data, published a month ago yesterday, showed a small swing towards the Coalition.

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It'll be a close election, Labor Gains in Victoria/Qld, Liberal maybe everywhere else.

What makes you think Labor will gain seats in Victoria? They did very well there last time, and I can't see them doing too much better this time.

There are about 3 seats in VIC that could fall in a very small swing to the ALP... considering the polling in VIC has the ALP up 10% TPP... those seats would fall in a uniform swing.

That's from the latest poll for the state Labor party, not the federal one. The latest federal poll that included Victorian data, published a month ago yesterday, showed a small swing towards the Coalition.

Sorry the last poll had the ALP up 54-46 in VIC Federally, I didn't remember clearly.

That's alright, and the 54-46 figure is a 1.3% swing to the Coalition in VIC since the last federal election. If repeated uniformly, Corangamite and Deakin would go Liberal, and La Trobe would narrowly stay Labor.

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Candidate declaration from the London-Ecuador constituency

Useless attention-seeking twat...

For the Troll Party of Australia, perhaps?

Even if he does run, I can't see his chances of winning being too high.

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BREAKING NEWS: Craig Thomson, Labor-turned-Independent member for Dobell, has been arrested for 149 fraud charges.

Read more here: http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=841104

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Wow.

I didn't recognize him at first... how time files!

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True. Unless this becomes a stampede for the exits, which I doubt. How many Laborites quit in '96 or Liberals in '07?

16 Coalition members (total for both houses) retired in 2007, and 14 Labor members retired in 1996, 15 if you count Labor-turned Independent Senator John Devereux.

EDIT: Currently, 8 Labor members (total for both houses) are retiring at this year's poll.

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As some of you probably know, Clive Palmer, Australian billionaire, has resurrected the United Australia Party (UAP), previously Australia's main conservative party from 1931-1945, and two Queensland state MPs have already joined.

They plan on running candidates in most seats, and their core policies can be found here:
http://unitedaustralia.org/policies/

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As some of you probably know, Clive Palmer, Australian billionaire, has resurrected the United Australia Party (UAP), previously Australia's main conservative party from 1931-1945, and two Queensland state MPs have already joined.

They plan on running candidates in most seats, and their core policies can be found here:
http://unitedaustralia.org/policies/

Wow, that's absolutely useless. It's more than vague.

My guess is that they'll release more detailed and other policies closer to the date or over time, like Katter's Australian Party did, they started out with a few core policies as well.

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What exactly was Palmer asking for to begin with?

Quote from Professor Palmer himself on the day he founded his party:

He (Palmer) told Lateline that Australia needs a new party "to unite all Australians in a time of crisis to work together".

"I think we need to take away the game from professional politicians who say the same thing," he said.

"It doesn't matter whether it's Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard, they've got the same lobbyists influencing them, the same focus groups. We need to think about more what the people need."

Source:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-25/clive-palmer-to-go-ahead-with-political-party/4651998

In more recent news, rock singer Angry Anderson is contesting the seat of Thorsby for the Nationals. Shame he likely won't win though .

Source:
http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=869261

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My current predictions:

Adelaide - Narrow Labor hold, Liberals beat Labor on primary votes.
Aston - Liberal hold, likely to swing big.
Ballarat - Labor hold, potential for a large swing.
Banks - Liberal gain (Labor 71, LNP 74)
Barker - Liberal hold
Barton - Hard to say, looks very tight. I lean towards a Liberal gain (Labor 70, LNP 75)
Bass - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 69, LNP 76)
Batman - Labor hold. Liberals finish 2nd on primary votes.
Bendigo - Hard to say. Narrow Labor hold, big swing due to a retiring member.
Bennelong - Liberal hold
Berowra - Liberal hold
Blair - Very hard to call. Labor hold...barely.
Blaxland - Labor hold
Bonner - Liberal hold
Bowman - Liberal hold
Boothby - Liberal hold, Southcott finally gets a swing towards him.
Braddon - Narrow Liberal gain (Labor 68, LNP 77)
Bradfield - Liberal hold
Brand - Narrow Labor hold, swing in WA is smaller and ALP somewhat held their own here at the state election.
Brisbane - Narrow Liberal hold. One of the few seats Labor has a hope of regaining.
Bruce - Would be very vulnerable if Brumby won in  2010, but too much of a stretch to see the ALP lose here. Narrow Labor hold.
Calare - National hold.
Calwell - Labor hold
Canberra - Labor hold.
Canning - Liberal hold - if Labor couldn't win this with MacTerinan, they can't win it now.
Capricornia - Will come down to Katter preferences. Remember the ALP still won state seats here even in 2012.
Casey - Liberal hold, expect it to swing large.
Charlton - Labor hold
Chifley - Labor hold
Chisholm - If Burke wasn't Speaker it'd be vulnerable, but for now it's a narrow Labor hold.
Cook - Liberal hold
Corangamite - Liberal gain (Labor 67, LNP 78)
Corio - Labor hold
Cowan - Liberal hold
Cowper - National hold
Cunningham - Labor hold
Curtin - Liberal hold

I'll do the rest at a later date. Comments and critique is appreciated.

I agree with most of these, as you will see with my predictions, which I will post below. Looking forward to seeing the rest of your predictions!

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NOTE: These predictions are very preliminary, and will be updated at a later date, final predictions on the 7th of September.

Current parliament: 71 ALP, 72 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 5 IND

Adelaide (ALP 7.5%)
Kate Ellis is a prominent member of the government, although she was one of only two incumbents in South Australia to have a swing against her last time. Will depend on both the overall performance of the Liberals in SA, and Ellis’ performance as a minister.

Aston (LIB 0.7%)
Labor have done well in Victoria over the past two cycles, although I expect Aston to become safer for the Liberals.

Ballarat (ALP 11.7%)
Labor retain, unless there is a large swing in regional Victoria.

Banks (ALP 1.5%)
Although very marginal, Banks had a strong swing to the Liberals last time, which may be hard to top. Another key seat.

Barker (LIB 13.0%)
Liberal retain.

Barton (ALP 6.9%)
Normally a Labor stronghold, sitting MP Robert McClelland is retiring, possibly paving the way for an upset Liberal gain.

Bass (ALP 6.7%)
Given the strong movement away from Labor in Tasmania, Liberal gain.
Back to top

Batman (ALP 24.8%)
Labor retain.

Bendigo (ALP 9.4%)
Like Ballarat, the Liberals should only pick this up in the event of a large swing back to them in regional Victoria.

Bennelong (LIB 3.1%)
The Liberals should strengthen their hold here.

Berowra (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.

Blair (ALP 4.2%)
At this stage, LNP gain, as Labor’s situation has worsened in Queensland since the last election, and doesn’t appear to be getting better.

Blaxland (ALP 12.2%)
Labor retain.

Bonner (LNP 2.8%)
Should become safer for the LNP.

Boothby (LIB 0.3%)
Although Andrew Southcott suffered a 2.2% swing against him last time, in addition to the last redistribution weakening his already slim hold on the seat, the last election was something of a high watermark for Labor in South Australia, so he should be returned here fairly easily.

Bowman (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.

Braddon (ALP 7.5%)
Liberal gain at this stage, if Labor remain unpopular in Tasmania.

Bradfield (LIB 18.2%)
Liberal retain.

Brand (ALP 3.3%)
Labor have always held this seat since its creation in 1984, although they have come close to losing it before, most notably in 1996. One to watch, although this would be significantly safer for Labor on the figures of the last state election.

Brisbane (LNP 1.1%)
Not a traditional conservative seat, an LNP member for this seat would normally be an anomaly. Given the anti-Labor climate in Queensland at the moment, I’d expect the LNP hold on this seat to become more secure.

Bruce (ALP 7.7%)
Likely Labor retain, barring a large swing.

Calare (NAT 10.7%)
National retain.

Calwell (ALP 20.0%)
Labor retain.

Canberra (ALP 9.2%)
Labor retain.

Canning (LIB 2.2%)
Liberal retain, probably with an increased majority.

Capricornia (ALP 3.7%)
One to watch, given the sitting member is retiring and the still-grim climate for Labor in Queensland.

Casey (LIB 1.9%)
Liberal retain.

Charlton (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.

Chifley (ALP 12.3%)
Labor retain, although it may come very close.

Chisholm (ALP 5.8%)
Labor favoured, although better for the Liberals than neighbouring Bruce.

Cook (LIB 12.7%)
Liberal retain.

Corangamite (ALP 0.3%)
Should be an easy Liberal gain at this stage.

Corio (ALP 13.5%)
Labor retain.

Cowan (LIB 6.3%)
Liberal retain.

Cowper (NAT 9.3%)
National retain.

Cunningham (ALP 13.2%)
Labor retain.

Curtin (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.

Dawson (LNP 2.4%)
LNP retain.

Deakin (ALP 0.6%)
Liberal gain, particularly after the last redistribution added areas such as Ringwood to the seat.

Denison (IND 1.2% vs ALP)
Andrew Wilkie has been a strong member, and should be re-elected easily.

Dickson (LNP 5.1%)
LNP retain.

Dobell* (ALP 5.1%)
Considering what has happened to the sitting member, Craig Thomson, over the past few years, this should be an easy Liberal gain.

Dunkley (LIB 1.1%)
Liberal retain, despite the small margin.

Durack (LIB 13.7%)
Liberal retain, although the Nationals should poll well.

Eden-Monaro (ALP 4.2%)
A bellwether seat since 1972, Mike Kelly is a strong member, although if the swing is on, the seat should hold its bellwether status.

Fadden (LNP 14.2%)
LNP retain.

Fairfax (LNP 7.0%)
LNP retain.

Farrer (LIB 14.5%)
Liberal retain.

Fisher* (LNP 4.1%)
Peter Slipper, like Craig Thomson, has made quite a mess of himself, and the LNP should win this one back.

Flinders (LIB 9.1%)
Liberal retain.

Flynn (LNP 3.6%)
LNP retain.

Forde (LNP 1.6%)
LNP retain.

Forrest (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.

Fowler (ALP 8.8%)
Likely Labor retain, although this could become quite marginal.

Franklin (ALP 10.8%)
One to watch, this could go either way.

Fraser (ALP 14.2%)
Labor retain.

Fremantle (ALP 5.7%)
Likely Labor retain.

Gellibrand (ALP 24.1%)
Labor retain.

Gilmore (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain.

Gippsland (NAT 11.5%)
National retain.

Goldstein (LIB 6.0%)
Liberal retain.

Gorton (ALP 23.6%)
Labor retain.

Grayndler (ALP 20.6%)
This seat only has a 4.2% margin against the Greens, although Anthony Albanese is a strong member, and the Greens have gone down in polling over the past 3 years.

Grey (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Greenway (ALP 0.9%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Griffith (ALP 8.5%)
The seat in Queensland Labor are most likely to hold.

Groom (LNP 18.5%)
LNP retain.

Hasluck (LIB 0.7%)
Liberal retain, unless Labor’s standing improves in Western Australia over the next few months.

Herbert (LNP 2.2%)
LNP retain.

Higgins (LIB 5.4%)
Liberal retain.

Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1%)
The seat most likely to be lost by Labor in South Australia.

Hinkler (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.

Holt (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain, although I expect a large swing against them here.

Hotham (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain.

Hughes (LIB 5.2%)
Liberal retain.

Hume (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hunter (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain.

Due to the character limit, my predictions will be continued in the next post.

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Indi (LIB 9.0%)
Liberal retain.

Isaacs (ALP 10.4%)
Labor retain, unless the swing in Victoria is large.

Jagajaga (ALP 11.1%)
Labor retain.

Kennedy (KAP 18.3% vs LNP)
Bob Katter should win easily.

Kingsford Smith (ALP 5.2%)
Normally an easy win for Labor, 2013 could see this seat go Liberal for the first time.

Kingston (ALP 14.5%)
Hard to call, the Labor margin is VERY over-inflated, so there could be a large swing back to the Liberals this year.

Kooyong (LIB 7.5%)
Liberal retain.

La Trobe (ALP 1.7%)
Key contest, at this stage a Liberal gain.

Lalor (ALP 22.1%)
Labor retain.

Leichhardt (LNP 4.6%)
LNP retain.

Lilley (ALP 3.2%)
A prize target for the LNP, Lilley will be very difficult to hold in 2013.

Lindsay (ALP 1.1%)
Liberal gain.

Lingiari (ALP 3.7%)
Normally a Labor seat, the significant swings to the CLP in last year’s NT election may be repeated here, in which case the CLP could easily win this.

Longman (LNP 1.9%)
LNP retain.

Lyne (IND 12.7% vs NAT)
National gain.

Lyons (ALP 12.3%)
Like Franklin, this is hard to pin down, it could go either way.

Macarthur (LIB 3.0%)
Liberal retain.

Mackellar (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.

Macquarie (LIB 1.3%)
Liberal retain.

Makin (ALP 12.0%)
Hard to call, the margin is quite over-inflated, although Tony Zappia is quite popular. I’d expect Zappia to win again, with a significantly lower majority.

Mallee (NAT 23.3%)
National retain.

Maranoa (LNP 22.9%)
LNP retain.

Maribyrnong (ALP 17.5%)
Labor retain.

Mayo (LIB 7.3%)
Liberal retain.

McEwen (ALP 9.2%)
Strengthened for Labor in the last redistribution, they should hold on here, I’d expect it to go back to more marginal territory though.

McMahon (ALP 7.8%)
Normally safe Labor, McMahon could surprise in 2013.

McMillan (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain.

McPherson (LNP 10.3%)
LNP retain.

Melbourne (GRN 6.0% vs ALP)
The Green tide has receded somewhat, although Adam Bandt, as an incumbent MP, should hold on.

Melbourne Ports (ALP 7.9%)
Likely Labor retain, unless the Liberal swing is very strong.

Menzies (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.

Mitchell (LIB 17.2%)
Liberal retain.

Moncrieff (LNP 17.5%)
LNP retain.

Moore (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Moreton (ALP 1.1%)
Graham Perrett is fairly popular, although should lose his seat the way the ALP are going in Queensland.

Murray (LIB 19.6%)
Liberal retain.

New England (IND 21.5% vs NAT)
Tony Windsor will likely be harder to dislodge than Rob Oakeshott, but the Nationals should win here.

Newcastle (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain.

North Sydney (LIB 14.1%)
Liberal retain.

O’Connor (WAN 3.6% vs LIB)
With Tony Crook bowing out after one term, the result here will depend on the quality of the National and Liberal candidates.

Oxley (ALP 5.8%)
After Griffith, the seat Labor are most likely to hold in Queensland.

Page (ALP 4.2%)
Key contest, would go National at this point in time.

Parkes (NAT 18.9%)
National retain.

Parramatta (ALP 4.4%)
Liberal gain at this point in time.

Paterson (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain.

Pearce (LIB 8.9%)
Liberal retain.

Perth (ALP 5.9%)
Labor have a decent chance of holding on here, particularly if they invest most of their WA efforts into saving Stephen Smith.

Petrie (ALP 2.5%)
Likely LNP gain.

Port Adelaide (ALP 21.0%)
Labor retain.

Rankin (ALP 5.4%)
Possible LNP gain, could go either way.

Reid (ALP 2.7%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Richmond (ALP 7.0%)
Harder to win than Page, this could go National in 2013.

Riverina (NAT 18.2%)
National retain.

Robertson (ALP 1.0%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Ryan (LNP 7.2%)
LNP retain.

Scullin (ALP 20.6%)
Labor retain.

Shortland (ALP 12.9%)
Labor retain, this would be Liberal held on federal state figures though.

Solomon (CLP 1.8%)
CLP retain.

Stirling (LIB 5.6%)
Liberal retain.

Sturt (LIB 3.6%)
Liberal retain, likely with a significantly increased majority.

Swan (LIB 2.5%)
Liberal retain.

Sydney (ALP 17.1%)
Labor retain.

Tangney (LIB 12.3%)
Liberal retain.

Thorsby (ALP 12.1%)
Labor retain.

Wakefield (ALP 10.5%)
Like Makin and Kingston, the margin in Wakefield is quite inflated, and could swing back to the Liberals significantly in 2013. Hard to call at this stage.

Wannon (LIB 5.7%)
Liberal retain.

Warringah (LIB 13.1%)
Liberal retain.

Watson (ALP 9.1%)
Labor retain, although this could get quite marginal.

Wentworth (LIB 14.9%)
Liberal retain.

Werriwa (ALP 6.8%)
The fact that Werriwa is a possibility of a Liberal pickup highlights the problems Labor have had in New South Wales recently.

Wide Bay (LNP 15.6%)
LNP retain.

Wills (ALP 23.5%)
Labor retain.

Wright (LNP 10.2%)
LNP retain.

Parliament on these predictions: 38 ALP, 90 LNP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1 IND, 19 Toss-up

Feel free to use the blank map in the gallery to post a colourful picturesque map of your predictions.

Will do, Smid!

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I'm reasonably confident that the Greens will be toppled in Melbourne, unless the Liberals decide to preference them... which, from what I've heard, is unlikely.

That is unlikely, though Bandt should benefit from a sophomore surge, not to mention his electorate is very Green-friendly.

Wouldn't be surprised if he does lose though, and four months and a week is a LONG time in politics.

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I would actually think most of the independents (Katter has his own party now) and Bandt will probably lose. I still think Windsor can survive.

What about Andrew Wilkie? I can't see him losing, if anything, he should be returned with a significantly higher majority.

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I think of the independents, Wilkie is the safest, Oakeshott has no chance, and Windsor if in between, but I expect him to lose.

How does Windsor have a chance at all when the most recent poll (albeit conducted last year, when Richard Torbay was the candidate, instead of Barnaby Joyce) had his primary vote at 25% and his TPP vote at 34%? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me, even though he's been there for ages.

While I think and hope Joyce will win, the fact that he is being parachuted in from another state, coupled with Windsor's incumbency, means that Windsor may not be as easy to defeat as some may think.

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Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

As Smid said, it's Maribyrnong. One of the few safe seats. But would he want a poisoned chalise?

Who will be the next leader post-Gillard? Swan makes sense but he's in a lot of strife for re-election IIRC. I can't see the party going Rudd, Bowen's also in danger, Combet's from the Left, and as I said it'd be bloody stupid for Shorten to run.

Smith or Crean maybe?

Assuming he holds his seat (on state figures, Perth would still be Labor, but only by 0.6%), they might go with Smith, although Crean and Bowen seem possible too.

Combet they could always elect as a stop-gap leader, much like the Liberals did with Nelson after the 2007 election. And although our political views are quite different, I agree with you, Shorten won't be leader.

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As some of you would know by now, disgraced former Labor MP Craig Thomson is re-contesting his seat as an independent.

I think he'll finish fourth, behind the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.

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Happened in 1998: polls suggested a big Labor win. Voters said otherwise.

I'm going to pray that what happened in BC can happen here as well. Not putting much hope into it, but that's really needed.

Yes, I'm also hoping that the Liberals outperform expectations...

Former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer with some wise words:
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=872870

While a Liberal victory is very likely (and what I'm hoping for, like Smid, I hope the Liberals outperform expectations), you should never count chickens before they hatch.

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Ford is shutting down their last 2 plants. Dunno if outsourcing becomes an election issue, at least on the VIC front.

Governments and Ford are working together to make a transition package, although Ford's contribution is not yet known:
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=875024


In today's news, Martin Ferguson, Labor member for Batman and ex-Minister for Resources, will be quitting Parliament at the next election:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/martin-ferguson-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election/story-fn59niix-1226653063801

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In today's news, Martin Ferguson, Labor member for Batman and ex-Minister for Resources, will be quitting Parliament at the next election:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/martin-ferguson-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election/story-fn59niix-1226653063801

Are the Greens seriously contesting his seat? They didn't do badly last time if I remember correctly.

The Greens will do well here, but I don't think they'll win, largely because:

1. They most likely will not be getting Liberal preferences this time around.
2. The northern half of the seat is too old-school Labor, i.e. bad for the Greens.

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All I can say is what a week this has been! Personal attacks of this nature on the PM are bad, as are throwing sandwiches... With only three months to go from today, I've got a feeling it's going to be one big roller coaster ride leading up to the election.

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Everyone knew Tasmania was going to be dire for the ALP but evidently it may be worse:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/15/tasmanian-and-federal-leadership-polling/

Things are looking bad (from an ALP point of view) in Tasmania, that's for sure! I have my doubts about Lyons falling though, Dick Adams has a strong following, although he's got a real fight on his hands from the looks of things. In my opinion, Bass and Braddon are gone at this stage, and Franklin is looking like a possible Liberal pickup as well.

The Nielsen Poll out tomorrow will 'apparently' be in line with current polling conventions... looks like the 58-42 Newspoll isn't alone.

Will be interesting to see, looking forward to the next state-by-state breakdown as well.

Never count your chickens before they hatch though, 91 days is a long time in politics.

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2001 and 2004 external circumstances saved a near-doomed government... I think it would take a pretty big external factor to change this dynamic. Howard nor Keating were this far behind 3 months out.

Very true, how far behind was Keating anyway?