Australia - 7 September 2013

[Hifly]

Outlier is outlier.

That doesn't even make sense. And what makes you sure it is an outlier? The government has been receiving very bad press lately.

[Hifly]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

Which probably makes you pretty pissed since you're a Labor Left hack.

[Hifly]

Yeah it's been a sh**t week for them.

Which probably makes you pretty pissed since you're a Labor Left hack.

I have no clue who you are, but you should start being constructive and stop trolling like a 5-year old.

It was more constructive and more true than some of his previous comments.

[Hifly]

Meanwhile a Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun gives the Coalition a slightly less pungent lead of 54-46.
It would be interesting to see the state by state breakdown of these polls. Does Galaxy and Newspoll publish them?

I doubt the results of the Western Australian election next month (in which it is looking likely that Labor will get smashed), will provide any uplifting support for the government.

[Hifly]

The Western Australian Labor Party Executive has just decided to drop openly gay senator Louise Pratt from the top of the Senate ticket and replace her with an anti-gay social conservative in Joe Bullock. If current polling holds up, Labor may struggle to get more than one senator elected from WA.

[Hifly]

Private Liberal polls in Chisholm and Bruce have shown that both will fall to the Libs with a massive swing-and after the swing Labor received against them in Lyndhurst I wouldn't be surprised if other seats in South East Melbourne are also at risk-an article in The Australian suggests even Holt is under threat.
I think what we will see is larger swings being concentrated in safer Labor seats, especially in Western Sydney and Tasmania. Language used by Sam Dastyari suggests that even Newcastle is definitely in play.

[Hifly]

Of course very similar claims were made about many safe Coalition seats in 2007 and, for the most part...

I don't know about these but bear in mind that the difference in 2PP in 2007 is much less than the difference in 2PP expected at the election this year.

[Hifly]

I doubt that the polls can be wrong this time. We have already witnessed consistent Liberal victories of lopsided margins in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia during this parliament. Often the polls have actually slightly underestimated the size of Liberal victory. But all elections have favoured the right.
I think an extremely likely outcome is that the Libs win more seats in September than the polls show on face-value.
Also, last week Labor preselection was called for the seat of Throsby, held by left winger Stephen Jones (the one who introduced the massive fail of a gay marriage bill into parliament last year). He's being challenged by a right winger who has the apparent support of Noreen Hay.
I can't imagine anyone who would want to be the Labor candidate in Dobell; After all that's happened they're likely to be smashed in that seat.

[Hifly]

lol no bishop... those eyes

?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBgqHJSyovk

[Hifly]

In today's news, Martin Ferguson, Labor member for Batman and ex-Minister for Resources, will be quitting Parliament at the next election:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/martin-ferguson-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election/story-fn59niix-1226653063801

Are the Greens seriously contesting his seat? They didn't do badly last time if I remember correctly.

[Hifly]

but it is odd to see that kind of swing without any real cause.

Funding reform fail?

[Hifly]

a Coalition victory somewhere in the range of 90-115 seats... the idea of which makes me feel physically ill.

I think that it's more likely going to be in the upper half of that range.

[Hifly]

a Coalition victory somewhere in the range of 90-115 seats... the idea of which makes me feel physically ill.

I think that it's more likely going to be in the upper half of that range.

What makes you think that? The polls were showing a very similar story at this stage in 2007. Gillard isn't as strong or popular as Howard, granted, but Abbott also doesn't have the appeal and newness of Rudd.

If you follow Australian politics closely you will notice the attitude of Labor activists and politicians is that of an acknowledgment of a great impending defeat; many within the Labor party are themselves predicting that they could go as low as 30 seats. This notion is given further weight by the general consensus that the largest swings are concentrated in safe Labor seats in heartlands such as Western Sydney, Tasmania, Hunter, and various parts of Victoria. Labor does not even seem confident of holding seats such as Newcastle and Corio. The polling (both internal and public) that has been released to wider view has confirmed this. A poll from a couple of days ago of the safe seat of Isaacs in Victoria (held by a margin of 10%) shows a massive 15% swing away from Labor. Similarly, public polls from seats such as Blaxland and McMahon have also confirmed swings as high as this. Labor themselves suspended internal polling of Victoria's safe seats as the results were perceived to be too damaging for the party leadership.
More importantly however, the past 2 years have provided us with ample evidence of the hostile electoral attitude towards Labor. Both the Queensland and New South Wales elections have directly shown that the public have an appetite for giving Labor landslide defeats of proportions never previously experienced. The polls were not wrong here, and equivalent electoral defeats of epic proportions were not suffered by the Coalition in the run up to the 2007 election. The results of the NSW state election also highlight that it's perfectly reasonable to suggest that seats such as Newcastle, Shortland and Blaxland may fall. I think it's exceptionally naïve and hackish to try and reject the notion that the impending defeat for Labor will be great.

[Hifly]

I've worked up a state-by-state swing... with the biggest swings being in NSW, TAS and the NT.. but swings of 1.5-4% elsewhere (smallest in the ACT)...

That leaves roughly Coalition: 90 - ALP: 57 - Others: 3
Coalition + 17 (ALP -15)

And what average 2PP are you actually basing that on? Your prediction seems to be "the odd one out" so to speak.

[Hifly]

I don't think Labor would as low as 30 seats, I think they'll fall to 50-40, although it is 100 days away they may scrape a few more together or collapse completely. However, if this really is the end of Labor, it isn't the worst thing is it? For too long Australia has lacked an electable left-wing social/economical party and if Labor truely has such a dire future it paves the way for a new party to be formed.

Or in my case... hoping for an actual progressive party that can do both economic fairness and social liberalism. One of the things that made me REALLY angry at Gillard was her statement...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gillard's thrown progressives under the bus for the sake of old school labor.

Why don't you go join the Green Party; you'll be happier there.

[Hifly]

Why don't they poll Rudd's seat? Also if anyone can find the actual figures for each division can they post them here? It only seems to show Kingsford Smith and Blaxland in full.
There is a distinct possibility that the only two Labor MPs left in Western Sydney after September will be Chris Hayes and Tony Burke, the two most socially conservative MPs in the House ALP caucus, which won't bother me.

[Hifly]

There is still a significant rump of socially conservative Catholic retirees who form part of the ALP's base, although I do acknowledge that their power is too disproportionately great within the party.
Could David Feeney being preselected for Batman give the Greens a chance at gaining the division? Does Feeney even live in Batman?

[Hifly]

Everyone knew Tasmania was going to be dire for the ALP but evidently it may be worse:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/15/tasmanian-and-federal-leadership-polling/

[Hifly]

Everyone knew Tasmania was going to be dire for the ALP but evidently it may be worse:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/15/tasmanian-and-federal-leadership-polling/

I have my doubts about Lyons falling though, Dick Adams has a strong following, although he's got a real fight on his hands from the looks of things.

Obviously his following is not strong enough. A 59/41 lead for the Libs technically puts the seat in an uncompetitive position for Labor. The consensus from internal polling and analysis is that the Labor vote has held up stronger in Franklin than in Lyons, and this poll only confirms that. I'm confident that the Coalition will pick up at least 3 in Tasmania.

[Hifly]

Adam Bandt won't hold Melbourne, I'd say.

Well this seat really represents the one and only possibility of a gain for Labor-although I have my doubts especially after polls have shown hefty swings against them in and around Melbourne. I don't see Liberal voters preferencing Labor over Bandt.

[Hifly]

Go away, bigot.

If you have any complaints you should address them to the Western Australian Labor Party. You're also a bigot by default.

[Hifly]

I just can't wait to see the looks on the LGBT rights activists faces if Louise Pratt is defeated while Joe Bullock is elected instead of her. It would be hilarious.

Pratt is #2 on the ticket, Labor would REALLY need to  up if only one of them won.

I'm expecting 4 seats for the Right and 2 seats for the Left in the State. On the Right I expect 3 Liberals and 1 National. The Greens already hold a seat and I'm hoping that their vote does not completely collapse so that they can retain theirs, and Pratt loses, although I understand that 2 Labor and no Green seems a bit more likely at this stage.

[Hifly]

Do any of you think that a defeat of the magnitude we are seeing for the Labor Party at the federal level will translate into continuing Liberal victories in future state elections after this September, like in South Australia for instance?  

I think the Tasmanian Labor Party is doomed in 2014 no matter what.

[Hifly]

I think the truest success of the government has been the world-leading NDIS, and it will be Gillard's best legacy to Australia.

Hear hear!

[Hifly]

So would everyone agree that we are looking at another 2010 in which the ALP pulls out a narrow win? 

I certainly do not, but I wouldn't mind being surprised. Tony Abbott needs to go.