When will the next "Wave Year" be?

[Blackacre]

After three Wave Years (2006, 2008, 2010) in a row, 2012 seems to be a neutral, Dem-lean year. When's the next time we'll see a massive wave year like what we saw from '06 to '10? What are the odds that it may happen in 2014? How often do these wave years even happen?

[JerryArkansas]

Depends on the mood of the country.  If the people are made at obama in 2014 we could see a wave election

[Del Tachi]

In 2018 a Republican wave will hit during the middle of a Democrat's first term.

[old timey villain]

In 2018 a Republican wave will hit during the middle of a Democrat's first term.

recession? scandal?

[Blackacre]

In 2018 a Republican wave will hit during the middle of a Democrat's first term.

recession? scandal?

Likely repeat of '94 and '10, plus the 2018 midterms for the Senate being lopsided against the Dems

[Reaganfan]

I'm thinking 2014. Republicans may have national problems but at the state and local levels, they're booming.

[Skill and Chance]

There's maybe a 10% chance that 2014 ends up being an election about gun control, which would set up an R wave where all the remaining rural D's lose and they flip the senate.

I could also see a modest D wave that allows them to flip the House in 2016 if Hillary Clinton runs. 

To me, an R wave in 2018 (Clinton overreach v 2.0) or a D wave in 2022 (R incumbent 6th-year itch) are the most likely possibilities.

[TNF]

I'm thinking 2014. Republicans may have national problems but at the state and local levels, they're booming.

It's pretty easy to "boom" when you're rewriting the rules of the game in your favor. And yes, I would agree with you that 2014 will be another Republican wave year, especially if the economy contracts. I assume the Republicans will hold the House and probably gain the Senate in '14 or '16 before losing the Senate again in '18 and then finally losing the House in '20.

[Del Tachi]

In 2018 a Republican wave will hit during the middle of a Democrat's first term.

recession? scandal?

Likely repeat of '94 and '10, plus the 2018 midterms for the Senate being lopsided against the Dems

This is what I was thinking.  I think that Democrats make inroads into the House in 2014 and 2016, not sure if they take the majority, but it'll set them up for losses in 2018. 

[Mr.Phips]

There's maybe a 10% chance that 2014 ends up being an election about gun control, which would set up an R wave where all the remaining rural D's lose and they flip the senate.

I could also see a modest D wave that allows them to flip the House in 2016 if Hillary Clinton runs. 

To me, an R wave in 2018 (Clinton overreach v 2.0) or a D wave in 2022 (R incumbent 6th-year itch) are the most likely possibilities.

How many rural Dems are there left in the House in non-black majority districts, five?

[Sopranos Republican]

I'm thinking 2014. Republicans may have national problems but at the state and local levels, they're booming.

Yeah I 2014 definitely could be a Republican wave. Especially if the economy isn't good.

[Blackacre]

In 2018 a Republican wave will hit during the middle of a Democrat's first term.

recession? scandal?

Likely repeat of '94 and '10, plus the 2018 midterms for the Senate being lopsided against the Dems

This is what I was thinking.  I think that Democrats make inroads into the House in 2014 and 2016, not sure if they take the majority, but it'll set them up for losses in 2018. 

Dems NEED to take a majority in 2014/2016 for a 2018 Republican wave to follow. As long as we get an incompetent and horrendously unpopular house majority and Nancy Pelosi is co-speaker rather than outright speaker, the Republicans won't get much success.

2014 won't be a Republican wave for that very reason. The economy is slowly but surely improving, but if it does sour, John Boehner gets as much of the blame as Barack Obama does.

[Mr.Phips]

In 2018 a Republican wave will hit during the middle of a Democrat's first term.

recession? scandal?

Likely repeat of '94 and '10, plus the 2018 midterms for the Senate being lopsided against the Dems

This is what I was thinking.  I think that Democrats make inroads into the House in 2014 and 2016, not sure if they take the majority, but it'll set them up for losses in 2018. 

Dems NEED to take a majority in 2014/2016 for a 2018 Republican wave to follow. As long as we get an incompetent and horrendously unpopular house majority and Nancy Pelosi is co-speaker rather than outright speaker, the Republicans won't get much success.

2014 won't be a Republican wave for that very reason. The economy is slowly but surely improving, but if it does sour, John Boehner gets as much of the blame as Barack Obama does.

My thoughts generally.  Waves dont usually happen when there is divided government. 

[traininthedistance]

There's maybe a 10% chance that 2014 ends up being an election about gun control, which would set up an R wave where all the remaining rural D's lose and they flip the senate.

I could also see a modest D wave that allows them to flip the House in 2016 if Hillary Clinton runs. 

To me, an R wave in 2018 (Clinton overreach v 2.0) or a D wave in 2022 (R incumbent 6th-year itch) are the most likely possibilities.

How many rural Dems are there left in the House in non-black majority districts, five?

Depends what you count as "rural", seeing as virtually every single district in the nation has some territory within a metro area.  Do the Iowa seats count as rural, for instance?  NY-21?  ME-2?  OR-4? (Despite its large size, I'd say NV-4 pretty clearly does not count.)

[Asian Nazi]

Depends on what you count as a "wave".  Thanks to redistricting the GOP may be able to win as many as 250 seats in the House next election if they just tie the Democrats in the popular vote.  Winning the popular vote by a few more percentage points than that could get them as many as 20 more seats than that.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

In 2018 a Republican wave will hit during the middle of a Democrat's first term.

GOP will hold all three by 2016. Tea Party that is.

[Mr.Phips]

Depends on what you count as a "wave".  Thanks to redistricting the GOP may be able to win as many as 250 seats in the House next election if they just tie the Democrats in the popular vote.  Winning the popular vote by a few more percentage points than that could get them as many as 20 more seats than that.

No way the GOP would ever get above 250 absent a huge wave.  They've essentially drew the maps so that there are about 190 safe Dem seats and around 210 safe GOP seats and very little in the middle. 

[Asian Nazi]

Depends on what you count as a "wave".  Thanks to redistricting the GOP may be able to win as many as 250 seats in the House next election if they just tie the Democrats in the popular vote.  Winning the popular vote by a few more percentage points than that could get them as many as 20 more seats than that.

No way the GOP would ever get above 250 absent a huge wave.  They've essentially drew the maps so that there are about 190 safe Dem seats and around 210 safe GOP seats and very little in the middle. 

Link?  I was basing my # off something I read the other day that could have been very wrong.

[Mr.Phips]

Depends on what you count as a "wave".  Thanks to redistricting the GOP may be able to win as many as 250 seats in the House next election if they just tie the Democrats in the popular vote.  Winning the popular vote by a few more percentage points than that could get them as many as 20 more seats than that.

No way the GOP would ever get above 250 absent a huge wave.  They've essentially drew the maps so that there are about 190 safe Dem seats and around 210 safe GOP seats and very little in the middle. 

Link?  I was basing my # off something I read the other day that could have been very wrong.

Just look at the districts.  Democrats hold something like 10 Republican leaning seats now.  Even in the Republican wave of the centucy in 2010, they could only get to 242.  It was calculated that redistricting only gave them six more seats than they otherwise would have won.  Their ceiling is probably something like 248. 

Anyway, I highly doubt Republicans will do better than tie Democrats in the House popular vote and even doing so probably wouldnt gain them very many seats. 

You cant look at the House popular vote as linear.  For instance, Democrats got the same % in 2006 and 2008, yet won 25 more seats in 2008. 

[bballrox4717]

The next time the president passes or does something that really pisses off the other party. I don't think 2014 will be that year unless Obama succeeds in passing dramatic gun control legislation like another assault weapons ban. The Republicans are too divided for that right now. My guess would be 2018 or 2022 under a new Republican president.

[Frodo]

I'm thinking 2014. Republicans may have national problems but at the state and local levels, they're booming.

At least in the South and the border states of Kentucky and West Virginia. 

[Mr.Phips]

The next time the president passes or does something that really pisses off the other party. I don't think 2014 will be that year unless Obama succeeds in passing dramatic gun control legislation like another assault weapons ban. The Republicans are too divided for that right now. My guess would be 2018 or 2022 under a new Republican president.

If Obama does pass gun control, it will be a Republican House that passes it, so they will be undercut in their own argument.

[DS0816]

Wave elections since the 1970s:

1972 - Richard Nixon's re-election. He won his first, over Hubert Humphrey, by R+0.70 as a party pickup. With re-election, he had an increase nationally of more than 22 percentage points. Uncommon. But a wave. Went from 32 states to the same ones plus an additional 17 to carry 49.

1974 - Democratic wave for both houses of Congress (due to Nixon)

1976 - Democratic wave for flipping presidency to Jimmy Carter (as he unseated Gerald Ford)

1980 - Republican wave for Ronald Reagan unseating Carter (and the GOP won over majority control of the Senate)

1982 - Democratic wave in midterms congressional elections

1986 - Democratic wave to win over majority control of Senate

1992 - Democratic wave for presidency as Bill Clinton unseated George Bush

1994 - Republican wave for both house of Congress (flipping the Senate and likewise winning over majority control of the House for the first time since Dwight Eisenhower was the Republican pickup winner of 1952)

2006 - Democratic wave as the party won over both houses of Congress off George W. Bush's was in Iraq (and corruption within the ranks of the GOP)

2008 - Democratic wave as the party flipped the presidency, with Barack Obama elected over John McCain, and took a total of 51 Senate seats and shot the total up to 59. Along with that they gained at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives

2010 - Republican wave as the party flipped the House, much for it attributable to the ongoing healthcare bill, and it was to the tune of 60-plus pickup seats


When will the next "Wave Year" be?
Based on past performance, there is a good chance that we will experience at least one more 'wave' at some point while still in this decade.

[pbrower2a]

For the Senate, 2016 is likely to be a wave election as a reverse of the 2010 election. There are just so many Hard Right winners of 2010 who might not fit in liberal-to-moderate states.  For the House it is all timing. When do Americans tire enough of Tea Party pols enough to vote D+4 or so for House elections?

[Asian Nazi]

I'd also label 2018 as a potential big year for Senate Republicans if a Democrat gets elected President in 2016.