When will the next "Wave Year" be?

[auburntiger]

If a Democrat gets elected in 2016, a 1992-style Republican "landslide" victory could happen in 2020. Everything goes in cycles. By then, the Republicans will have re-invented themselves as they must for survival.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Hopefully 2014 will be the next one.  I get the feeling that a lot of the Senate Republicans who won in 2010 will probably be reelected in 2016, however, because the GOP will hopefully have started to rebrand itself, and if they do, 2016 may very well be a good year for them (helping incumbents who might be vulnerable win reelection).

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully 2014 will be the next one.  I get the feeling that a lot of the Senate Republicans who won in 2010 will probably be reelected in 2016, however, because the GOP will hopefully have started to rebrand itself, and if they do, 2016 may very well be a good year for them (helping incumbents who might be vulnerable win reelection).

Waves rarely happen during times of divided government. 

[Blackacre]

Hopefully 2014 will be the next one.  I get the feeling that a lot of the Senate Republicans who won in 2010 will probably be reelected in 2016, however, because the GOP will hopefully have started to rebrand itself, and if they do, 2016 may very well be a good year for them (helping incumbents who might be vulnerable win reelection).

Waves rarely happen during times of divided government. 

It'd have to happen to allow for another wave to follow, though. Plus, 2008 was technically divided government and look how that turned out

[Obamanation]

If a Democrat gets elected in 2016, a 1992-style Republican "landslide" victory could happen in 2020. Everything goes in cycles. By then, the Republicans will have re-invented themselves as they must for survival.

I wouldn't be so sure...

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully 2014 will be the next one.  I get the feeling that a lot of the Senate Republicans who won in 2010 will probably be reelected in 2016, however, because the GOP will hopefully have started to rebrand itself, and if they do, 2016 may very well be a good year for them (helping incumbents who might be vulnerable win reelection).

Waves rarely happen during times of divided government. 

It'd have to happen to allow for another wave to follow, though. Plus, 2008 was technically divided government and look how that turned out

Bush was simply so toxic by 2008(his approval was in the 20's) that it was a special situation. 

It wouldnt really have to happen for a wave.  The best chance for a wave that I see is 2018 if Republicans take everything in 2016.  In times of divided government, people usually are not sure who to blame, so they just vote for incumbents. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The vulnerable GOP are from either purple states or very blue states like Rob Johnson, Mark Kirk, Pat Toomey and Kelly Ayotte. Lisa Madigan or Dan Hynes can take out Mark Kirk.  And at the very least the targeted purple states which are the tipping point states are CO, NV, IA, NH, and PA.  I see the dems losing four seats this election in 2014, and winning the four seats back in 2016. But Illinois is a given since Obama is from the state.

[Mr.Phips]

The vulnerable GOP are from either purple states or very blue states like Rob Johnson, Mark Kirk, Pat Toomey and Kelly Ayotte. Lisa Madigan or Dan Hynes can take out Mark Kirk.  And at the very least the targeted purple states which are the tipping point states are CO, NV, IA, NH, and PA.  I see the dems losing four seats this election in 2014, and winning the four seats back in 2016. But Illinois is a given since Obama is from the state.

I see Johnson and Kirk losing for sure.  Kirk because he cant possibly survive the increase in Chicago turnout and Johnson because he is essentially a Joe McCarthy in a blue leaning state.  I dont think Democrats have anyone as out of step with their states as Johnson is. 

Toomey could survive, but I doubt he can survive the increased Dem turnout in Philly. 

[auburntiger]

If a Democrat gets elected in 2016, a 1992-style Republican "landslide" victory could happen in 2020. Everything goes in cycles. By then, the Republicans will have re-invented themselves as they must for survival.

I wouldn't be so sure...

If 2016 is a bad enough loss for the GOP, (and in a weird sort of way, I hope it is), there will be a huge movement to moderate and/or shift the focus from social issues as a dominant force. I want to be able to call myself a Republican again without embarassment.

[Vosem]

2014 and 2016 seem unlikely. If a Democrat is elected in 2016, 2018 could be brutal. If it's a Republican, it seems like it'll be a muted year, but that there can be a nasty six-year itch in 2022. 2020 is also far enough into the future that nothing can be ruled out. If I had to bet, I'd say America's going to take a lengthy break from wave years now (after '94, the next one was '06!), with them reappearing around the turn of the decade, 1-2 (but not all 3) of the 2018-2020-2022 trio being wave years for somebody.

But this is no more than idle speculation, in truth. A few months before each election is when realistic prognoses will begin to appear.

[Mr.Phips]

2014 and 2016 seem unlikely. If a Democrat is elected in 2016, 2018 could be brutal. If it's a Republican, it seems like it'll be a muted year, but that there can be a nasty six-year itch in 2022. 2020 is also far enough into the future that nothing can be ruled out. If I had to bet, I'd say America's going to take a lengthy break from wave years now (after '94, the next one was '06!), with them reappearing around the turn of the decade, 1-2 (but not all 3) of the 2018-2020-2022 trio being wave years for somebody.

But this is no more than idle speculation, in truth. A few months before each election is when realistic prognoses will begin to appear.

2018 would depend on who controls the House.  If Democrats control everything, it will likely be a GOP wave.  If Republicans control everything, it will be a Dem wave. 

Waves seem to occur in a midterm only during unified government. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully by 2020 if there is a Cuomo/Warner or Kaine prez the economy isnt dependent on fossil fuels. Dependent on solar wind panels like china when we take back the house in 2016 and increase the minimum wage.