Hillary.

[Liberalrocks]

I would support Clinton if she was the only option for keeping the White House in Democratic hands, which doesn't seem likely, supposing that we still have a good field to choose from in 2016 and she doesn't scare away some of the more progressive possibilities.

That said, I basically agree with Snowstalker's reading of Clinton. There's a reason I was for John Edwards and then for Barack Obama in 2008. Clinton is certainly a winning candidate, but I would prefer one that is to her left.

Of course, I'll vote for whomever the D nominee is because the Republicans are insufferable and cannot be trusted in government. But a Hillary nomination would certainly be a roadblock to the evolution of the Democratic Party into a fully progressive party.

I am a progressive and I strongly disagree, Hillary and Obama were almost carbon copies on many of the issues in 2008. With the exception of the Iraq War vote which Obama used to rally the Move on Crowd, much of the race was fought over style, media appeal, slogans "change" and "experience"..."ready to lead" bs.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Obama did not campaign as a liberal messiah. He campaigned as a pragmatist. One that fully advocated for increased drone usage I might add.

[Liberalrocks]

Obama did not campaign as a liberal messiah. He campaigned as a pragmatist. One that fully advocated for increased drone usage I might add.

LOL I must have been watching another heated democratic primary then?!!! Move on.org was singing his praises over his Iraq war opposition. The liberal lion Ted Kennedy himself campaigned for him.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Obama did not campaign as a liberal messiah. He campaigned as a pragmatist. One that fully advocated for increased drone usage I might add.

LOL I must have been watching another heated democratic primary then?!!! Move on.org was singing his praises over his Iraq war opposition. The liberal lion Ted Kennedy himself campaigned for him.

I said he himself. Just because liberals flocked around him does not make his campaign ultra-liberal. We were watching the same primary, you just had the Hillary goggles superglued to your face. I seem to recall you refusing to support or vote for Obama in 2012, and blamed Obama for Prop 8 passing in California.

[Liberalrocks]

Obama did not campaign as a liberal messiah. He campaigned as a pragmatist. One that fully advocated for increased drone usage I might add.

LOL I must have been watching another heated democratic primary then?!!! Move on.org was singing his praises over his Iraq war opposition. The liberal lion Ted Kennedy himself campaigned for him.

I said he himself. Just because liberals flocked around him does not make his campaign ultra-liberal. We were watching the same primary, you just had the Hillary goggles superglued to your face. I seem to recall you refusing to support or vote for Obama in 2012, and blamed Obama for Prop 8 passing in California.

I did not vote for Obama in 2008 that is correct, I did vote for him in 2012, I will ignore your insult and not return it. I blamed Obama for not speaking out against Prop 8 in fervor yes, and I still do, while I commend his "evolution" on the issue he simply was not there in 2008.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Obama did not campaign as a liberal messiah. He campaigned as a pragmatist. One that fully advocated for increased drone usage I might add.

LOL I must have been watching another heated democratic primary then?!!! Move on.org was singing his praises over his Iraq war opposition. The liberal lion Ted Kennedy himself campaigned for him.

I said he himself. Just because liberals flocked around him does not make his campaign ultra-liberal. We were watching the same primary, you just had the Hillary goggles superglued to your face. I seem to recall you refusing to support or vote for Obama in 2012, and blamed Obama for Prop 8 passing in California.

I did not vote for Obama in 2008 that is correct, I did vote for him in 2012, I will ignore your insult and not return it. I blamed Obama for not speaking out against Prop 8 in fervor yes, and I still do, while I commend his "evolution" on the issue he simply was not there in 2008.

You are correct, he did not campaign against Prop 8 or for gay marriage in 2008. Which further goes to show: he did not campaign as a liberal messiah. Others may have viewed him in that way, but that was not his intention.

[Liberalrocks]

Obama did not campaign as a liberal messiah. He campaigned as a pragmatist. One that fully advocated for increased drone usage I might add.

LOL I must have been watching another heated democratic primary then?!!! Move on.org was singing his praises over his Iraq war opposition. The liberal lion Ted Kennedy himself campaigned for him.

I said he himself. Just because liberals flocked around him does not make his campaign ultra-liberal. We were watching the same primary, you just had the Hillary goggles superglued to your face. I seem to recall you refusing to support or vote for Obama in 2012, and blamed Obama for Prop 8 passing in California.

I did not vote for Obama in 2008 that is correct, I did vote for him in 2012, I will ignore your insult and not return it. I blamed Obama for not speaking out against Prop 8 in fervor yes, and I still do, while I commend his "evolution" on the issue he simply was not there in 2008.

You are correct, he did not campaign against Prop 8 or for gay marriage in 2008. Which further goes to show: he did not campaign as a liberal messiah. Others may have viewed him in that way, but that was not his intention.

That is but one issue, while a big one now, there were many other liberal causes that the left seem to favor him on over Hillary. I believe he did purposely run to the left of her to gain traction...whatever it is to be called "liberal messiah" or what have you.

[Beet]

I will concede that Hillary Clinton would not really be different from Obama in terms of her policy as hypothetical president. If she's the nominee, I'd probably vote for her, and she'd probably be at least an okay president. So what really got me mad? Her supporters. In the forum, in the media (I could make a second rant about how all the liberal talking heads, even the so-called "progressives", are shilling her as much as possible and failing to talk to any Democrat who isn't also on board), and with most of the Democrats I meet. Every other new topic in the 2016 boards is about her.

Snowstalker,

I appreciate you being fairly even handed here and admitting that she'd not be that different from Obama on the left-right spectrum.

Let me just say, if as a Clinton supporter I come off as a bit enthusiastic, it's partially because in 2007 I was really coy about my support for Clinton. I was a bit overconfident. I thought she had it in the bag. It was lazy. And it was emblematic of one of the mistakes of Clinton 08.

You say that when people say negative things about Clinton, her supporters rush to her defense. Would you think we should say nothing instead, and allow the criticism to stand? I can't tell you how many times I used to think 'This is obviously dumb, but the truth will come out in time, I just have to wait', only to be proved wrong.

My lesson from 2008 is this: You can't ignore criticisms of your candidate and brush them off, and you can't coast on high name recognition or positive favorabilities.

In 2008, Clinton ran on being hardworking and Obama ran on hope, but behind the scenes, Clinton's people were hoping for a Super-Tuesday knockout while the Obama people were working hard to count the delegates and build the organizations.

Any candidate that succeeds in 2016 on either side of the aisle will have to take that message to heart.

[Sbane]

Obama did not campaign as a liberal messiah. He campaigned as a pragmatist. One that fully advocated for increased drone usage I might add.

LOL I must have been watching another heated democratic primary then?!!! Move on.org was singing his praises over his Iraq war opposition. The liberal lion Ted Kennedy himself campaigned for him.

I said he himself. Just because liberals flocked around him does not make his campaign ultra-liberal. We were watching the same primary, you just had the Hillary goggles superglued to your face. I seem to recall you refusing to support or vote for Obama in 2012, and blamed Obama for Prop 8 passing in California.

I did not vote for Obama in 2008 that is correct, I did vote for him in 2012, I will ignore your insult and not return it. I blamed Obama for not speaking out against Prop 8 in fervor yes, and I still do, while I commend his "evolution" on the issue he simply was not there in 2008.

You are correct, he did not campaign against Prop 8 or for gay marriage in 2008. Which further goes to show: he did not campaign as a liberal messiah. Others may have viewed him in that way, but that was not his intention.

That is but one issue, while a big one now, there were many other liberal causes that the left seem to favor him on over Hillary. I believe he did purposely run to the left of her to gain traction...whatever it is to be called "liberal messiah" or what have you.

He only ran to her left on the war and that was it.

[DolphMcCrungus]

There's a reason Hillary didn't win the '08 nomination everybody. It's because she's very unlikable. If you disagree with this concept then you are blind/ignoring history. Now she's an even less attractive candidate.

[Blue3]

I recall her having HUGE favorability ratings now... I like her, and so do most Americans.

[DolphMcCrungus]

I recall her having HUGE favorability ratings now... I like her, and so do most Americans.

And you're a fool if you think she can sustain those ratings if she runs.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I recall her having HUGE favorability ratings now... I like her, and so do most Americans.

And you're a fool if you think she can sustain those ratings if she runs.

They'll fall with independents and Republicans, but will remain high with Democrats. Christie will face the same thing if he runs, and he faces the problem of having a lower ceiling with Republicans in the primary.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I recall her having HUGE favorability ratings now... I like her, and so do most Americans.

And you're a fool if you think she can sustain those ratings if she runs.

Anyone who took the time to find and post on this website understands how SoS affects one's favorability ratings. It's just that we also understand that favorability isn't going to go down at all with Democrats... you know, the people who will put her in the general.

[Beet]

I disagree that Hillary lost in '08 because of un-likability. As I recall, when Obama condescendingly told Hillary that she was "likable enough" this backfired on him. Hillary's personality and character has always been one of her strengths, if not her main strength.

I also disagree that Hillary can win a campaign solely on the basis of her likability. Of course, anything can happen, and candidates have won solely on likability before. But as I said in the other thread, where Hillary went wrong in 08 and could go wrong again is failing to articulate a political vision / emotionally resonant campaign theme. A campaign needs something inspirational around it, something that goes beyond just the candidate to how she's going to help the people. That's ultimately what politics is about, in the end.

[Mr. Morden]

I recall her having HUGE favorability ratings now... I like her, and so do most Americans.

Latest PPP poll on HRC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169084.msg3618192#msg3618192

favorable: 49%
unfavorable 42%

So net of +7%.  Down from +15% from just last month.  IMHO, all the talk of her running in 2016 that's circulated in the media during her retirement as SoS has already "re-partisanized" her a bit.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I disagree that Hillary lost in '08 because of un-likability. As I recall, when Obama condescendingly told Hillary that she was "likable enough" this backfired on him. Hillary's personality and character has always been one of her strengths, if not her main strength.

I also disagree that Hillary can win a campaign solely on the basis of her likability. Of course, anything can happen, and candidates have won solely on likability before. But as I said in the other thread, where Hillary went wrong in 08 and could go wrong again is failing to articulate a political vision / emotionally resonant campaign theme. A campaign needs something inspirational around it, something that goes beyond just the candidate to how she's going to help the people. That's ultimately what politics is about, in the end.

I'd argue that it happened in the end, though. By the time of her exit, she was really embracing the feminist angle. But I guess it always happens in the end. Hell, the energy around Romney in the final week was absolutely incredible... "Real change on day one" should've been his message from the beginning. But I digress.

[bballrox4717]

I recall her having HUGE favorability ratings now... I like her, and so do most Americans.

Latest PPP poll on HRC:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169084.msg3618192#msg3618192

favorable: 49%
unfavorable 42%

So net of +7%.  Down from +15% from just last month.  IMHO, all the talk of her running in 2016 that's circulated in the media during her retirement as SoS has already "re-partisanized" her a bit.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Benghazi hearings had a part in it, she got really fired up against the Republicans. Having Lindsey Graham saying "she got away with murder" and Rand Paul"saying she should be fired is really strong rhetoric that probably resonates with Republicans who might have been approving of her hob as SoS.

[Blue3]

According to a new national survey from Quinnipiac University, 61% of registered voters say they have a favorable impression of Clinton, who stepped down last week after serving four years as secretary of state. Thirty-four percent of voters questioned in the poll, which was released Friday, say they had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.
 
That 61% favorable rating is slightly lower than one in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, and also slightly lower than her approval rating in a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey.
 
Both of those polls were conducted last month, prior to Clinton's testimony over the deaths last September of the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other Americans in a terrorist attack in Benghazi. Clinton won generally favorable reviews for the testimony in front of both Senate and House committees. At times angry and choked with emotion, the secretary of state once again took responsibility for the deaths of the four Americans, but repeatedly distanced herself from a direct role in specific situations.
 
In an opened-ended question in the Quinnipiac poll, where respondents were able to provide any answer, a total of 45% with a favorable opinion of Clinton say the main reason is her job performance, experience and competence.
 
"Among those with an unfavorable opinion, 21% cite the Benghazi controversy," according to a release from Quinnipiac University.
 
While Clinton's new numbers remain high, there are two caveats. As with the prior polls, the new Quinnipiac survey indicates a partisan divide, with more than nine in ten Democrats and nearly six in ten independents but just 27% of Republicans having a favorable impression of Clinton.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/08/how-popular-is-hillary-clinton/



It seems that PPP poll may be an outlier.

[pbrower2a]

Blank map:

Hillary Clinton ahead of all prospective major Republican nominees (Christie, Rubio)
Hillary Clinton ahead of some, tied or behind with others
Hillary Clinton behind or tied with all prospective major nominees.

Start with Alaska this time:

For Alaska, Sarah Palin is not considered a "prospective major Republican nominee"

Favorability:

Positive and over 60%
Positive and between 55% and 59%
Positive and between 50% and 54%
Positive but under 50%
Tied at 49% or less
Negative and between 45% and 49%
Negative between 40 and 44%
Negative and under 40%

[pbrower2a]

Iowa (PPP, as with Alaska)


Hillary Clinton ahead of all prospective major Republican nominees (Christie, Rubio)
Hillary Clinton ahead of some, tied or behind with others
Hillary Clinton behind or tied with all prospective major nominees.

 Iowa checks in with Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, and Rand Paul -- none of whom do well.  Not every potential GOP nominee will be mentioned.

Favorability:

Positive and over 60%
Positive and between 55% and 59%
Positive and between 50% and 54%
Positive but under 50%
Tied at 49% or less
Negative and between 45% and 49%
Negative between 40 and 44%
Negative and under 40%
[/quote]

I am going back to January 1. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Guys, this was my thread venting about Hillary Clinton. How in God's name did this turn into pbrower posting Hillary vs. Republican maps?

[Blue3]

Guys, this was my thread venting about Hillary Clinton. How in God's name did this turn into pbrower posting Hillary vs. Republican maps?

Well, you never really answered any of the points people (like me) made to you...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

1. Most people have already done their homework, and know she's the strongest in the field. The Democrats have a weak field in 2016, excluding her. Biden? Cuomo? O'Malley? Warren?

2. Many want history to be made in 2016, and Hillary is ready for it.

3. Hillary Clinton has really redeemed herself in the last 4 years, at least for me. No drama from her, selflessly standing with and serving Obama, hard work as Secretary of State, etc.

4. I also have to say, she seemed too uncomfortable in the 2008 cycle, she didn't seem genuine. Too prepared. Now she seems really comfortable, genuine, confident in herself, saying what she wants, etc.

1. Strongest in an election? Sure. But as I said, my concern is ideological. And good job if you really have done your research.

2. Elizabeth Warren or Kirsten Gillibrand wouldn't make history? Even so, I'll support the candidate who will make the best president, no matter their sex or race.

3. I'll give you this.

4. We'll see how the campaign goes if she does choose to run.

Yes I did.

[Obamanation]

It seems that PPP poll may be an outlier.

It certainly seems like it. Especially with the state level polls pointing to a completely different national map.