Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair by-election results:

Lib: 1141
NDP: 703
PC: 287

Really good showing for the NDP!

[Hatman 🍁]

Exact same number of votes as 2011

Lib: 53% (-18%)
NDP: 33% (+31%)
PC: 13% (-13%)

[Hatman 🍁]

The polls had closed at 6:30, not 9 like I said on my blog :S

Anyways, great stuff for the NDP.

Swing is 24.26% from the Liberals to NDP

[RogueBeaver]

More OLP casualties: Margaret Best is resigning as MPP for Scarborough-Guildwood. Something must be up here, this is by-election #5.

[Hatman 🍁]

All Liberal ridings too, so no threat of a majority govt.

[lilTommy]

I also think Best has been around for the least amount of time, she was only elected in 2007...

Scarborough-Guildwood is probably going to stay Liberal too; its a battle between the PCs and OLP. Best won with 48% in 11, but federally John MacKay (a blue liberal if i'm not mistaken) just barely held onto the riding with 36% to 34% for the CONs; the NDP did rather well at 26%. Provincially the NDP never held this area, and managed 19% in 11 by a solid 21% in 07 with Neethan Shan who was a school board trustee at the time (now provincial party president, and performed much better in Scar.Rouge River in 11 with 36% a 22% increase).

The Guildwood area (in the south) is rather wealthy, about 40% make more then 100K a year, largest ethnic group is black but they make up only about 6%; 5% being South Asian
West Hill (south east) is slightly more mixed with about 20% in the 100K+ but about 55% visible minority, 20% being Black.
Woburn (north) is much more low-middle income 35%+ are in the 20-50K range, only 17% in the 100K (still pretty high); the big difference is that 70% are visible minorities, 35% being south asian
Morningside (north east) again a low-middle class area, 30+ in the 20-50K and 20% in the 100K income, the biggest growth is among the wealthier about a 5% increase between 2000-05. Similar to Woburn, about 70% are visible minority, 30% south asian and a large part being Tamil.

Based on the poll map on 506; its a mixed bag with the Cons/Libs/NDP winning polls in all of the neighbourhoods. The biggest grouping for the NDP was around Scarborough Village; The Liberals along Lawrence Ave; CONS off in West Hill.
But in the prov. election, looks like the PCs won only a few while the OLP won most of the polls http://globalnews.ca/map/519732/

[RogueBeaver]

Does anyone think Wynne calls a fall election, or we wait for another round of budget chicken next year?

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone think Wynne calls a fall election, or we wait for another round of budget chicken next year?

I could see her calling an election while Trudeau love is still in the air. However, the more likely scenario is Wynne daring the NDP to force an election.

[adma]

I also think Best has been around for the least amount of time, she was only elected in 2007...

Scarborough-Guildwood is probably going to stay Liberal too; its a battle between the PCs and OLP. Best won with 48% in 11, but federally John MacKay (a blue liberal if i'm not mistaken) just barely held onto the riding with 36% to 34% for the CONs; the NDP did rather well at 26%. Provincially the NDP never held this area, and managed 19% in 11 by a solid 21% in 07 with Neethan Shan who was a school board trustee at the time (now provincial party president, and performed much better in Scar.Rouge River in 11 with 36% a 22% increase).

Actually, the NDP *did* hold this area in whole or in part at various intervals up to and including the Rae landslide.  And as it presently stands, it'd be a more likely target than Etobicoke-Lakeshore (though like E-L, they suffered from an awkward provincial parachute in 2011)

[DL]

The average household income in Guildwood is actually quite low and there are a lot of cheap high rise apartments and burgeoning black and Tamil populations. In the 2011 federal election the NDP got 26% there with just a name on the ballot and no active campaign whatsoever...demographically Guildwood is more winnable than E-Lakeshore or even London West for that matter.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, every Scarborough seat save Agincourt or the Pickering hybrid is winnable for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Guildwood went NDP in 1990 and also CCF in 1943 and 1948 (with Agnes Macphail no less)

[DL]

Guildwood went NDP in 1990 and also CCF in 1943 and 1948 (with Agnes Macphail no less)

I'm not sure if Guildwood even existed in the 1940s or if it was all farmers fields! In those days there was one riding called York East that was ALL of what is now Scarborough plus East York plus parts of North York!

[Hatman 🍁]

Guildwood went NDP in 1990 and also CCF in 1943 and 1948 (with Agnes Macphail no less)

I'm not sure if Guildwood even existed in the 1940s or if it was all farmers fields! In those days there was one riding called York East that was ALL of what is now Scarborough plus East York plus parts of North York!

Yes, I know. Obviously they are different demographics, but it's in the same geographic territory (obviously York East is much bigger, but it contained what is now Scarborough-Guildwood). And I like to trace ridings back to 1867 if I can to show how things change over the years.

[lilTommy]

Guildwood went NDP in 1990 and also CCF in 1943 and 1948 (with Agnes Macphail no less)

I stand corrected; BUT we have to remember the ridings were different back then. The current Scar. Guildwood looks to have been made up of the old Scar.Ellesmere, Scar. Centre and Scar. East(biggest portion 94% of it). In the cases of Ellesmere & Centre more favourable NDP areas to the west were included, Remember Scar.Southwest was a longtime stronghold for the NDP, long time seat of Stephen Lewis. Scar.East was won by a slim margin of 35-30-30 (while the others were won by 40%+)... all those ridings were lost to Harris in 95, and then to McGuinty in 03.

About Guildwood. The average 1st person income is about 50K, thats not low thats about average so i need to be corrected there, but its not a low income area. Its seen a huge decrease in the level of low income dropping from 34% in 2000 to 22% in 2005. The also saw a large increase in the 100K+ bracket growing from 29% to 37% (family income not individual).
DL -  i think you might be thinking of Morningside and Woburn when you speak of Tamils and high rises. One only has to look at the Guildwood VIA/GO station to see the area is very suburban, single family homes kinda neighbourhood.

If we compare E-L to Scar.Guildwood, might be right in that the areas is demographically changing more here to be favourable to the NDP, especially if they ran someone like Neethan Shan again. While E-L is seeing a huge condo boom in the south and a hollowing out of the older middle-working class areas, those neighbourhoods of Mimico, New Toronto, Long Branch and Alderwood have seen the middle income brackets shrink while 100K+ explode, although average 1st person incomes are still between 30-50K. E-L is generally very European too, with only New Toronto having a single group being over 10% (Black).

In regards to Agnes Macphail, it might have helped that she was a Progressive then United Farmer first before running in York East as a CCF'r

[MaxQue]

Didn't Macphail was elected in Gray area?

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne to call them all for Aug. 1?

[Hatman 🍁]

Only riding they didnt mention? Ottawa South

[adma]

Guildwood went NDP in 1990 and also CCF in 1943 and 1948 (with Agnes Macphail no less)

I stand corrected; BUT we have to remember the ridings were different back then. The current Scar. Guildwood looks to have been made up of the old Scar.Ellesmere, Scar. Centre and Scar. East(biggest portion 94% of it). In the cases of Ellesmere & Centre more favourable NDP areas to the west were included, Remember Scar.Southwest was a longtime stronghold for the NDP, long time seat of Stephen Lewis. Scar.East was won by a slim margin of 35-30-30 (while the others were won by 40%+)... all those ridings were lost to Harris in 95, and then to McGuinty in 03.

About Guildwood. The average 1st person income is about 50K, thats not low thats about average so i need to be corrected there, but its not a low income area. Its seen a huge decrease in the level of low income dropping from 34% in 2000 to 22% in 2005. The also saw a large increase in the 100K+ bracket growing from 29% to 37% (family income not individual).
DL -  i think you might be thinking of Morningside and Woburn when you speak of Tamils and high rises. One only has to look at the Guildwood VIA/GO station to see the area is very suburban, single family homes kinda neighbourhood.

If we compare E-L to Scar.Guildwood, might be right in that the areas is demographically changing more here to be favourable to the NDP, especially if they ran someone like Neethan Shan again. While E-L is seeing a huge condo boom in the south and a hollowing out of the older middle-working class areas, those neighbourhoods of Mimico, New Toronto, Long Branch and Alderwood have seen the middle income brackets shrink while 100K+ explode, although average 1st person incomes are still between 30-50K. E-L is generally very European too, with only New Toronto having a single group being over 10% (Black).

In regards to Agnes Macphail, it might have helped that she was a Progressive then United Farmer first before running in York East as a CCF'r

I agree that the ridings were different, and the present Scarb-Guildwood is a patchwork of previous incarnations; but one has to be cautious in "reading" said previous incarnations, too, since things could easily be skewed by incumbency or other countervailing riding-configuration factors--for instance, Scarborough East might have been 35-30-30 NDP in '90, but if it were just the "Scarborough-Guildwood" part the NDP share skews much higher.

And just as we should be careful about reading too much into "Tamils and high-rises", we also should be careful in reading too much into what one sees from Guildwood GO station; in fact, the kind of affluent/genteel bluffside suburbia that defines Guildwood Village is itself more of an "isolated" factor within the riding than it might appear.  Indeed, I suspect that the repeated failed targeting of this seat by the Tories is founded upon a misreading of "Scarborough-Guildwood" as something for more defined by Guildwood Village than it actually is--plus, an overconfidence in past Tory-favourable results in places like the former Scarborough East.

In fact, when it comes to "the mean", Scarborough-Guildwood isn't really much different from Scarborough Centre; it's just that SC is more homogeneous middle/lower-middle 50s60s sprawlsville, while SG is more a place of polarities: the affluence of Guildwood, but also its Scarboro Village/Mornelle/Tuxedo/Galloway/Morningside antithesis (not to mention Danzig Drive, the scene of last summer's headline-hogging shootings)

And while John McKay held on in '11, closer inspection of polling results reveal that it had something to do with some surprising, trend-defying "Hail Mary" Liberal strength particularly in the zone SE of Markham and Lawrence--otherwise, he would have fallen like Cannis, Simson, etc; it was all in that one node, plus various apartment towers here and there...

[lilTommy]

I think you makes some good points adma; thats reflected in the how close all three parties were, particularly last federal in Centre, Southwest, Guildwood and Rouge River. Scarborough is very much a hodgepodge of mixed communities, some with greater polarizations then others.
The NDP should start to realize that committing resources into these ridings (money, good candidates, etc) could produce results if the wider trend is positive for the NDP. The party did very well in both the ridings they hold federally last provincial (Southwest & Rouge River), but as you can see the Liberals held there vote and soft Liberals were not convinced to switch to the NDP (or conversely move to the PCs) for whatever reasons as they did federally. If you look at the difference, federally the NDP votes in RR & SW were only 5% higher. 

Oh, looks like the Liberals have nominated Ken Coran as their candidate in London West, he was the OSSTF president that led the charge against the Liberals only a few months ago. He looks to have been "anointed" with some in the executive not happy about it (not in this article but in another one i can no longer find). Yup, same guy who took credit for helping to stop the Liberals from getting a majority with their defeat in Kitchener-Waterloo. Make your own judgements
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberals-eye-teachers-federation-head-as-star-candidate-in-london-by-election/article12883499/

[DL]

Watch the news report here from the local CTV news affiliate on Ken Coran running for the Liberals in London West. It is BRUTALLY negative!

http://london.ctvnews.ca/osstf-head-ken-coran-to-run-as-liberal-candidate-in-london-byelection-1.1345832

I think this could really backfire on them. London West is the most "bourgeois" of the three London seats and the Liberals win by attracting a lot of right of centre "Paul Martin liberals". How will those people react to the OLP running a militant public sector union leader who was manning barricades attacking the party he's now running for and who led very unpopular job actions this past year that ended all extra curricular activities in high schools? Meanwhile the NDP is running Peggy Sattler a very sweet maternal school trustee and former school board chair! This could also open the door to a PC win.

[lilTommy]

Watch the news report here from the local CTV news affiliate on Ken Coran running for the Liberals in London West. It is BRUTALLY negative!

http://london.ctvnews.ca/osstf-head-ken-coran-to-run-as-liberal-candidate-in-london-byelection-1.1345832

I think this could really backfire on them. London West is the most "bourgeois" of the three London seats and the Liberals win by attracting a lot of right of centre "Paul Martin liberals". How will those people react to the OLP running a militant public sector union leader who was manning barricades attacking the party he's now running for and who led very unpopular job actions this past year that ended all extra curricular activities in high schools? Meanwhile the NDP is running Peggy Sattler a very sweet maternal school trustee and former school board chair! This could also open the door to a PC win.

Coran would have been a perfect candidate... for the NDP. In fact it looks as though the Liberals would much rather have the PCs win London West, and choosing a candidate who will directly appeal to traditional NDP voters is a clear attack on the NDP and a subtle endorsement of the PCs. Sattler is clearly the superior candidate in this field (based on experience, i have no idea is she is charismatic, or eloquent etc) and with a candidate like Coran their clear goal is to pull votes away from the NDP. The OLP knows they will almost certainly lose Windsor-Tecumseh to the NDP, "possibly" Scar.Guilwood; Ottawa South and E-L are not sure bets either.   
On a broader sense, the OLP is clearly trying to claim the Centre-LEFT with the election of Wynne, the Budget which was NDP-lite (basically bending over to the NDP, even if the details were not what the NDP wanted) a PC win in London West will help them try and marginalize the NDP more and make this, as they always try to, a two party fight with the PCs.
My hope is that this will backfire... with the Budget being mostly built by the NDP, together with not being stained with a decades worth of scandals, soft Liberal voters will find it easier to vote NDP (or stay home) rather then stick with the OLP (and many not being able to stomach the PCs). We see this to some degree in SWON and in the North were the OLP are in third place in the last poll from May.

[DL]

Except that if Coran loses and the PCs win - the message will be that the OLP  made a mistake by trying too hard to win back support from the NDP was ceding the middle to the PCs...I'm also sceptical about whether traditional NDP voters in London will be attracted to Coran at all when the NDP has such a solid candidate in place.

[adma]

Exactly--we could even be looking at a repeat of the K-W third place finish (though that might have been more likely pre-Wynne than now).

Oh, and while I wouldn't rule out defeat, I wouldn't jump the gun on calling Scarb-Guildwood any more of a "possible" loss than Etobicoke-Lakeshore or Ottawa South, either--the fact that the Wynne honeymoon (such as it is, and providing it endures) is most marked in the 416, plus the pattern of supposed Tory target campaigns stumbling and the wild-cardishness of the NDP (which, from all indications, has suffered the most WynneGrit share-poaching within the 416), ensures it.  On top of all that, if we go by what's transpired so far w/Etobicoke-Lakeshore, all the 416-zone provincial-star-candidate buzz seems to accrue around the Liberals (then again, it seems that both E-L and S-G already had Tory candidates in place for the anticipated budget election that didn't come)

[mileslunn]

Scarborough-Guildwood seems pretty safe.  If the Liberals could win it federally under the worst possible conditions I would be a huge upset if either the PCs or NDP won it.  As for choosing Coran in London, this might help unite the left, but it could also push some centrist to the PCs.  Most people don't hate unions like the right does, but they don't want them pulling the strings either.  I've heard the BCTF ads in the last BC election might have actually helped the BC Liberals as some were worried unions would have too much control over the NDP government.