Canadian by-elections, 2013

[adma]

Scarborough-Guildwood seems pretty safe.  If the Liberals could win it federally under the worst possible conditions I would be a huge upset if either the PCs or NDP won it. 

Though as I suggested, it was really a Hail-Mary spot polling circumstance that cinched it for the federal Grits--more of a fluke hold, as opposed to, say, Scarborough-Agincourt.

And the winning Grit share in Guildwood was lower than the losing Grit share in its two successive neighbours to the east (Pickering-Scarb E, Ajax-Pickering)

[mileslunn]

Scarborough-Guildwood seems pretty safe.  If the Liberals could win it federally under the worst possible conditions I would be a huge upset if either the PCs or NDP won it. 

Though as I suggested, it was really a Hail-Mary spot polling circumstance that cinched it for the federal Grits--more of a fluke hold, as opposed to, say, Scarborough-Agincourt.

And the winning Grit share in Guildwood was lower than the losing Grit share in its two successive neighbours to the east (Pickering-Scarb E, Ajax-Pickering)

2011 federal election maybe a fluke but right now all polls show the provincial Liberals polling better than the 25% the federal Liberals got and likewise no poll shows the PCs anywhere near the 44% the federal Conservatives got in Ontario.  The NDP is fairly close but they lost this by 10% last federal election while the Tories by only 2% so unless the NDP do significantly better than they did federally or the PCs get around 45% provincewide or higher, this should stay Liberal.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum pegs EL at 50-25 Grit.

[DL]

According to that poll with the PCs at 25% and the ONDP at 21% - its not inconceivable that the Ontario PCs could be pushed to 3rd place in Etobicoke-Lakeshore - which could be really catastrophic for Hudak's leadership.

[lilTommy]

The star poll said candidates didn't matter... yet used a number of different candidates for the Liberals only. The PCs have a candidate in place but the NDP and the Liberals do not. It could be none of those listed Liberals as a candidate.
I think candidates will play a big part, its a by-election which means more media attention to said candidates and more resources (in most cases). I agree with DL; if the NDP can put up a strong candidate they could very well challenge for second spot.

[DL]

The Ontario Liberals have apparently decided to dispense with any pretence to local democracy and instead Wynne has simply handpicked friends of hers as candidates. Pro-Ford city councillor Peter Milczyn will run in Etobicoke-Lakeshore while CivicAction chair Mitzie Hunter will run in Scarborough-Guildwood and the byelections will all apparently take place on Aug. 1 just before the long weekend - so make sure turnout is as low as possible.

I suspect that whoever the NDP runs in Lakeshore may be someone who might undersatnd that its a longshot but a good way to build some name recognition before running for one of the vacant council seats in  that area next year.

[DC Al Fine]

The Ontario Liberals have apparently decided to dispense with any pretence to local democracy and instead Wynne has simply handpicked friends of hers as candidates. Pro-Ford city councillor Peter Milczyn will run in Etobicoke-Lakeshore while CivicAction chair Mitzie Hunter will run in Scarborough-Guildwood and the byelections will all apparently take place on Aug. 1 just before the long weekend - so make sure turnout is as low as possible.

Why is anyone a Liberal anymore?

[RogueBeaver]

The Ontario Liberals have apparently decided to dispense with any pretence to local democracy and instead Wynne has simply handpicked friends of hers as candidates. Pro-Ford city councillor Peter Milczyn will run in Etobicoke-Lakeshore while CivicAction chair Mitzie Hunter will run in Scarborough-Guildwood and the byelections will all apparently take place on Aug. 1 just before the long weekend - so make sure turnout is as low as possible.

Why is anyone a Liberal anymore?

The OLP is pretty resilient given what they've done over the past decade, but they've also been lucky at election time.

[Hash]

The OLP government since 2011, hell even 2007, has been pretty horrible for sure, but Tim Hudak shouldn't be dog catcher, let alone Premier, so I keep voting Liberal.

[DC Al Fine]

The OLP government since 2011, hell even 2007, has been pretty horrible for sure, but Tim Hudak shouldn't be dog catcher, let alone Premier, so I keep voting Liberal.

Why are you a Liberal federally though?

[lilTommy]

The OLP government since 2011, hell even 2007, has been pretty horrible for sure, but Tim Hudak shouldn't be dog catcher, let alone Premier, so I keep voting Liberal.

Why are you a Liberal federally though?

... Why are you a Liberal at all then!

With Peter Milczyn, a pro-Ford Blue-Liberal, again its a strategic decision that i hope will backfire like with their choice in London West. He will pull votes that might have gone to the PCs, the last thing the Liberals want are the PCs to win any TO riding. This will only help the NDP into a second spot... BUT this also gives a tactical advantage to the NDP to play the Ford card to non-ford supporting Liberals. If this were the old PCs (Davis, pre-Harris) Milczyn would be a PC candidate.
Not having any local democracy in the electoral associations is a Liberal trend, has been for ages now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Crafty Wynne calling the by-elections in the middle of the summer.

[DL]

The OLP government since 2011, hell even 2007, has been pretty horrible for sure, but Tim Hudak shouldn't be dog catcher, let alone Premier, so I keep voting Liberal.

If you think the OLP is "horrible" and you hate Hudak and think he's too rightwing - the ONDP under Horwath beckons!

[Hatman 🍁]

The OLP government since 2011, hell even 2007, has been pretty horrible for sure, but Tim Hudak shouldn't be dog catcher, let alone Premier, so I keep voting Liberal.

If you think the OLP is "horrible" and you hate Hudak and think he's too rightwing - the ONDP under Horwath beckons!

Forget it; Pigs will sooner fly.

Anyways, I hate how short campaigns are in Ontario. Isn't it 36 days, federally?

Luckily my vacation begins on Aug 3, so I wont miss the by-election. It's actually the best possible date for me (except for something in late September/Early October)

[DL]

Aug. 1 I will be eating steamed lobster at a resort in Maine...I will check twitter for updates on the vote count!!

[mileslunn]

I doubt the NDP will come in second in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, but considering Tory support is quite soft here, a poor showing could be a bad sign for them.  Mulroney in 1984 and 1988, Harris in both 1995 and 1999 and Harper in 2011 won here.  Also Hudak in 2011 did worse than John Tory did in this riding.  Realistically London West is probably the only one they have a decent shot at and even that is far from certain.  I think the problem with Hudak is he comes across as too much of Harris II and there are lots of people who think Harris was worse than McGuinty.  Yes he didn't spend as much, but I've generally found its much easier to expand than cut the size of government.  Also Ontario has a long history of going opposites federally so I think if the Liberals or NDP win next federal election, that will be well for the provincial Tories and likewise as long as the Tories are in power in Ottawa, the provincial Liberals should remain competitive.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories may have a better shot in Ottawa South, actually... if polls are to be believed.

[RogueBeaver]

OLP candidate in London West can't remember when he stopped being a Dipper. Shades of Lise St-Denis.

[adma]

If this were the old PCs (Davis, pre-Harris) Milczyn would be a PC candidate.

Given how the Davis-era Ontario Liberals were to the right of the PCs, I'm not so sure.  

But I agree that Milczyn gives the NDP an apening--at least, if they take advantage of it.  And given how Milczyn may be tarred by association w/Ford, and barely won municipal re-election last time out--well, there's *potential* vulnerabilities there...

[RogueBeaver]

Radwanski notes that the Tories are setting low expectations in part because they don't want more media discussion about leadership. Not that it'd be more than idle chatter, but an unhelpful distraction regardless.

[Hatman 🍁]

Facebook says an "interesting contender" will seek the NDP nomination in Ottawa South and will announce tomorrow. That will probably be Bronwyn Funiciello.

[DL]

The PCs nominated weak candidates in both Scarborough-Guildwood and Etobicoke-Lakeshore back in the winter when they thought an election was imminent. i just read that they are getting both of them to quit and make way for stronger candidates and in EL - Ford's number one ally (apart from his brother) Doug Holyday - might run. We could have two Ford loyal city councillors duking it out - Milczyn for the Liberals and Holyday for the PCs and the NDP left as the only alternative for anyone who disapproves of Ford!

[adma]

Though Holyday seems a bit long in the tooth and "settled in" municipally to make such a jump.

In any event, Milczyn jumping the gun marks another blow to the Ford exec ctee...

[mileslunn]

The PCs nominated weak candidates in both Scarborough-Guildwood and Etobicoke-Lakeshore back in the winter when they thought an election was imminent. i just read that they are getting both of them to quit and make way for stronger candidates and in EL - Ford's number one ally (apart from his brother) Doug Holyday - might run. We could have two Ford loyal city councillors duking it out - Milczyn for the Liberals and Holyday for the PCs and the NDP left as the only alternative for anyone who disapproves of Ford!

Rob Ford is fairly popular in Etobicoke so I doubt the NDP could win off the anti-Ford vote.  North York and Etobicoke are the two former municipalities where his approval rating is still positive.

[Hatman 🍁]

The PCs nominated weak candidates in both Scarborough-Guildwood and Etobicoke-Lakeshore back in the winter when they thought an election was imminent. i just read that they are getting both of them to quit and make way for stronger candidates and in EL - Ford's number one ally (apart from his brother) Doug Holyday - might run. We could have two Ford loyal city councillors duking it out - Milczyn for the Liberals and Holyday for the PCs and the NDP left as the only alternative for anyone who disapproves of Ford!

Rob Ford is fairly popular in Etobicoke so I doubt the NDP could win off the anti-Ford vote.  North York and Etobicoke are the two former municipalities where his approval rating is still positive.

How much of those favourables are in Lakeshore, though? Ford's base is in the north end of the borough.