Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Trudeau mentioned something about the NDP not being the party of Jack Layton's hope and optimism?

Indeed, and he said the Grits are now that party.

McGuire ahead by 38 votes. Recount threshold is 27, apparently.

[MaxQue]

49-31 Lib-NDP in Bourassa
48-37 Lib-NDP in Toronto
43-43 Cons-Lib in Brandon (lead of 38 votes)
58-30 Cons-Lib in Provencher

Conservatives takes the lead in Brandon

[Hatman 🍁]

No matter how much of a disgruntled New Democrat I am, it's comments like those [Trudeau's comments] (and it's not the first time the Liberals have done this) that totally alienate me from ever supporting the Liberals.

[Citizen Hats]

No matter how much of a disgruntled New Democrat I am, it's comments like those [Trudeau's comments] (and it's not the first time the Liberals have done this) that totally alienate me from ever supporting the Liberals.

Why pray tell? 

[RogueBeaver]

Tory lead up to 116 in Brandon.

[Hatman 🍁]

No matter how much of a disgruntled New Democrat I am, it's comments like those [Trudeau's comments] (and it's not the first time the Liberals have done this) that totally alienate me from ever supporting the Liberals.

Why pray tell? 

I'm more interested in olive branches than burned bridges.

[Citizen Hats]

No matter how much of a disgruntled New Democrat I am, it's comments like those [Trudeau's comments] (and it's not the first time the Liberals have done this) that totally alienate me from ever supporting the Liberals.

Why pray tell? 

I'm more interested in olive branches than burned bridges.

And in what way does the NDP meet that standard?

[RogueBeaver]

Hatman: Trudeau's sniping aside, I'd have thought you'd never be Grit for ideological reasons.

[Citizen Hats]

I have trouble believing that Thomas Mulcair or Jack Layton would not themselves be twisting that knife if it was in their hands

[Hatman 🍁]

No matter how much of a disgruntled New Democrat I am, it's comments like those [Trudeau's comments] (and it's not the first time the Liberals have done this) that totally alienate me from ever supporting the Liberals.

Why pray tell? 

I'm more interested in olive branches than burned bridges.

And in what way does the NDP meet that standard?

Well, if I were a Liberal, I'd be concerned about the NDP olive branch capabilities, but I'm not. The Liberals are alienating me as a New Democrat.  

Anyways, NDPers may not be perfect, but I don't think anything we've said has made ol' Pierre roll in his grave tonight.  Personally, I'm a fan of Pierre Trudeau. I even have a picture of him on my wall next to a picture of Tommy Douglas. But Justin is no Pierre. He's more like his mother.

Hatman: Trudeau's sniping aside, I'd have thought you'd never be Grit for ideological reasons.

 

Correct, but you never know if a situation came up where I could consider voting for a Liberal.

I have trouble believing that Thomas Mulcair or Jack Layton would not themselves be twisting that knife if it was in their hands

Uh, no. Not even Mulcair is that vindictive.

[RogueBeaver]

McGuire's lead at 350-odd.

[MaxQue]

Hatman: Trudeau's sniping aside, I'd have thought you'd never be Grit for ideological reasons.

If you search a former liberal supporter, there is one here, but it's not like I liked them. It's just than they were the only alternative to Bloc until the mid 00's.

[Citizen Hats]

Jack would definitely be more likely to be twisting. He was good at that, part of the reason why I disliked him was that he was good at putting in the knife with a smile.

And frankly, it's only a burned bridge if your a partisan. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Maguire leads by 343 with 9 polls to go. Steep hill to climb, but if they're all large Brandon polls, it's not over yet.

[Citizen Hats]

Is it possible to know what polls are out? or do they not do that?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it possible to know what polls are out? or do they not do that?

Only the privileged know this, I'm afraid.

It's all over pretty much 350 vote lead now with 4 polls to go.

RB was right! Congratulations, RougeBeaver! And here I thought if FR was wrong in any riding it would be Toronto Centre

[RogueBeaver]

Fundamentals, then polls. Their BS pattern was well, BS, and reminded me of Ottawa South. Media hype and local controversies of Calgary Centre. By Xmas this will probably be forgotten like CC was.

Two people I'd thank for the BS hold: McGuire himself, and Jenni Byrne.

All polls reported: McGuire by 391, or 44.1-42.7. Dinsdale is about to concede.

[Smid]

Brandon - Souris is all in now:

Conservative      12,205    (44.1%)
Liberal                11,814    (42.7%)
NDP                      2,037    (7.4%)
Greens                 1,354    (4.9%)
Libertarian              271    (1.0%)

[Hatman 🍁]

One has to wonder, was FR just calling the city of Brandon maybe? Maybe the farmer folk are off-put by getting robocalled.

You have to admit (and everyone seems to be jumping on the anti-FR bandwagon tonight) that FR did well in the other three races. Even in Toronto Centre, they're looking pretty good, and that was the one race I thought they wouldn't be.

[RogueBeaver]

True, but the other numbers were plausible. Ideally we wouldn't have constituency polls at all, for the reasons Frank Graves has mentioned in the past.

[Citizen Hats]

One has to wonder, was FR just calling the city of Brandon maybe? Maybe the farmer folk are off-put by getting robocalled.

You have to admit (and everyone seems to be jumping on the anti-FR bandwagon tonight) that FR did well in the other three races. Even in Toronto Centre, they're looking pretty good, and that was the one race I thought they wouldn't be.

I can see no reason why they'd be catastrophically wrong in BS without the same effects being in play in Provencher, perhaps more so

[trebor204]

Voter Turnout

Brandon - Souris - 44.7%
Provencher - 33.6%
Bourassa - 26.2%
Toronto Centre - 36.%

[DL]

I can see no reason why they'd be catastrophically wrong in BS without the same effects being in play in Provencher, perhaps more so

Forum was also spectacularly wrong in Provencher. They had the Conservatives ahead by 10% in their final poll and they ended up winning by 28%!

[Hatman 🍁]

True, but the other numbers were plausible. Ideally we wouldn't have constituency polls at all, for the reasons Frank Graves has mentioned in the past.

I must disagree with my boss here. But, it's better for our reputation to avoid it , I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting set of results, but I don't know if they really portend much. Liberals can be pleased at the vote increases (of course), NDP can be pleased at the solidity of their vote in Montreal and Toronto (of course), Tories can be pleased at not actually losing anything (of course), but, meh. We who watch elections for fun need to remember (at all times, but particularly after by-elections) that people know when a swing is on, and tend to even know when a squeeze is on - and often vote accordingly.