Canadian by-elections, 2013

[DL]

I think that if Zinck runs as an independent a: He will get very very very few votes (ie: 100-200 at most)  and b: what few votes he gets will be contrarian "none of the above" types who otherwise wouldn't vote at all or would spread their votes evenly.

Who is the NDP running in Dartmouth North given that under normal circumstances it should be relatively strong seat for them?

[DC Al Fine]

I think that if Zinck runs as an independent a: He will get very very very few votes (ie: 100-200 at most)  and b: what few votes he gets will be contrarian "none of the above" types who otherwise wouldn't vote at all or would spread their votes evenly.

Who is the NDP running in Dartmouth North given that under normal circumstances it should be relatively strong seat for them?

They don't have a candidate yet. I have no idea who might be seeking the nomination either.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum pegs a generic TO Centre race as 49% Liberal, 25% Dipper and 20% Tory.

[lilTommy]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

I like the sounds of Jenn, she could be a very good fit for this young, relatively-yuppieish riding (i say that due to the St.Lawrence/Waterfront condo goers who are much less party oriented and more candidate swayed i feel. As well as the bourgeois Cabbagetown, she's a modern feeling social democrat/social justice candidate)
The Liberals should not be so quick to nominate Smitherman; he lost the mayoralty and his (and Kyle Rae's) hand picked council candidate was defeated by Wong-Tam, he rubs many people very badly.

I'm still sold on the idea that this by-election is a building block for the NDP, the candidate who runs now should also stick around till 2015 when the boundaries will be more favourable (spend the time getting more intrenched into the local communities like St.Jamestown, Regent Park, Cabbagetown and the waterfront/St.Lawrence)

Dartmouth North, demographically, feels pretty safe for the NDP. Any regional breakdowns for NS? I remember hearing/reading that the NDP were still quite strong in the Halifax region compared to the province wide numbers? Its always been (recently since the 90s, their strongest area)

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum pegs a generic TO Centre race as 49% Liberal, 25% Dipper and 20% Tory.

They certainly did that poll up pretty quick.

[DC Al Fine]

There are stories that Jennifer Hollett of MuchMusic fame may run for the NDP nomination. Her bio sounds great!

http://www.jenniferhollett.com/

I remember her. She looks so different with out her hair done up.

Anyways in other news, Dartmouth North has now been vacated, but I guess it doesn't matter due to a provincial election expected.

I like the sounds of Jenn, she could be a very good fit for this young, relatively-yuppieish riding (i say that due to the St.Lawrence/Waterfront condo goers who are much less party oriented and more candidate swayed i feel. As well as the bourgeois Cabbagetown, she's a modern feeling social democrat/social justice candidate)
The Liberals should not be so quick to nominate Smitherman; he lost the mayoralty and his (and Kyle Rae's) hand picked council candidate was defeated by Wong-Tam, he rubs many people very badly.

I'm still sold on the idea that this by-election is a building block for the NDP, the candidate who runs now should also stick around till 2015 when the boundaries will be more favourable (spend the time getting more intrenched into the local communities like St.Jamestown, Regent Park, Cabbagetown and the waterfront/St.Lawrence)

Dartmouth North, demographically, feels pretty safe for the NDP. Any regional breakdowns for NS? I remember hearing/reading that the NDP were still quite strong in the Halifax region compared to the province wide numbers? Its always been (recently since the 90s, their strongest area)

Nothing in the polls. Looking at past election results, the NDP have averaged about 10 points better in Halifax than their provincial numbers. Actually, I take back my comment about the Liberals picking up Dartmouth North. I just noticed that their candidate in 2009 was a popular city councilor. He polled way above the norm for the Liberals in the seat but won't be running again.

You are right abut Dartmouth North demographics. A large part of the riding is NDP friendly in the sense that Vancouver East is NDP friendly.

[DL]

Forum pegs a generic TO Centre race as 49% Liberal, 25% Dipper and 20% Tory.

They certainly did that poll up pretty quick.

I don't know how they manage to do 950 interviews all in one night...every single phone in that riding must have been ringing off the hook...one thing to bear in mind about IVR polls is that they cannot include any cell phones in riding polls since cell numbers cannot be traced to an individual riding...so any riding poll is landline only - and in a riding like Toronto Centre there would be a huge number of people with only cell phones.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum pegs a generic TO Centre race as 49% Liberal, 25% Dipper and 20% Tory.

They certainly did that poll up pretty quick.

I don't know how they manage to do 950 interviews all in one night...every single phone in that riding must have been ringing off the hook...one thing to bear in mind about IVR polls is that they cannot include any cell phones in riding polls since cell numbers cannot be traced to an individual riding...so any riding poll is landline only - and in a riding like Toronto Centre there would be a huge number of people with only cell phones.

Yep, exactly. That seems like a high number for one night of IVR in one riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blog post about Tuesday's by-election in Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/06/cartwright-lanse-au-clair-by-election.html

[RogueBeaver]

Laurel Broten resigning as MPP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore effective July 2. Should be an easy Grit hold, she won it by 21 last time.

[adma]

Should be an easy Grit hold, she won it by 21 last time.

In the present 416 Wynne-honeymoon/Ford-Hudak-backlash state of affairs, true enough--though the seat does have a bit of an NDP history, albeit atrophied since the Ruth Grier days.  (It'd be interesting to see if they try making an effort--though in light of the vanished old industrial base, it may be more as an incipient westward satellite of Parkdale-High Park.  The condos don't make it easy, though.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Isn't the riding vastly different now? Far more wealthier, etc?

I think if the NDP targets any Etobicoke riding, it's the north- even if it is the heart of Ford nation.

I'm hoping anyways that the NDP focus more on Ottawa South than in Lakeshore. Especially if Bronwyn wins the nomination.

[adma]

Isn't the riding vastly different now? Far more wealthier, etc?

Sort of, w/its expansion north into the Kingsway, etc, + the Humber Bay condos and all--not to mention deindustrialization in the south, though the ghost of past favourable polling numbers remains.  That is, it'd be "winnable" more in the event of an overall HamiltonLondonWindsor-esque shift in mood, and a favourable candidate a la Fife (or Bronwyn).  But it beats me who the NDP could pinpoint as a candidate, given the eclipse of the Griers, Irene Jones, etc.

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True, but that isn't where the byelection is--and at least E-L has a history *at all*, unlike Etobicoke Centre..n.
[/quote]

[lilTommy]

New Democrats managed 20% and 15% Federally/Provincially last time around, not terrible numbers but not high profile targeted riding numbers. But London West the NDP received about 21% provincially and the tides have seemed to turn in SWON to some degree.
Lets not forget the the Tories hold Etobicoke-Lakeshore federally, i'm sure the PCs would love to have any foothold in the city, although i doubt they could win it with the current PC leadership/policies.

I wonder if Irene Jones would run again? 10yrs away from municipal politics isn't that long away from public life? i'm sure that many still remember her/her work in the area. This isn't 2003 and the climate is much better for the NDP, although the OLP has regained its strength in the city. I just can't think of anyone else who could run for them... Any one know if the School board trustee Pamela Gough is a Dipper? they seem to be on a roll there LOL

Also... anyone else feel that the OLP is just going to hold 50 by-elections in order to avoid an actual election, then run with a new crop? Seems like their all jumping the ship.

[DL]

How old is Irene Jones? Does anyone know what she's doing these days?

[lilTommy]

How old is Irene Jones? Does anyone know what she's doing these days?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irene_Jones
No idea on her age, but looks like she still might be co-chair of the Etobicoke-Mimico Watersheds Coalition. If i had to guess, i'd say 50s-60s

[mileslunn]

I would say Etobicoke-Lakeshore would go Tory long before it would go NDP although I agree at the moment the Liberals would probably hold it, but it did go Tory provincially and also has in the past such as the federal elections of 1984 and 1988 as well as provincially in both 1995 and 1999.  Also Rob Ford solidly won this area too.  The main problem at the moment is Tim Hudak's personal numbers are horrible and as much as people want government to control spending, I am not so sure people are keen to return to the Common Sense Revolution of the 90s.  In addition Kathleen Wynne is far more liked than McGuinty.  Still I would say in order of winneability here is how I would rank them.

Liberals

1.  Ottawa South (highly likely)
2.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (likely)
3.  London West (slight edge)
4.  Windsor-Tecumseh (uphill battle)

PCs
1.  London West (slight disadvantage but definitely winneable especially if the NDP splits the left)
2.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (a longshot, but possible with a strong candidate and strong campaign)
3.  Ottawa South (A win is highly unlikely, but the PCs have a strong base as they will almost certainly get over 30%, but unlikely to crack the 40% mark and not much splitting on the left).
4.  Windsor-Tecumseh (irrelevant, will likely come in third)

NDP
1.  Windsor-Tecumseh (likely and a must win)
2.  London West (Possible, but a long shot)
3.  Etobicoke-Lakeshore (extremely unlikely, will likely come in third again).
4.  Ottawa South (completely irrelevant, will be lucky if they can get over 15%).

[Hatman 🍁]

Bronwyn would probably get us over 15%.

[adma]

New Democrats managed 20% and 15% Federally/Provincially last time around, not terrible numbers but not high profile targeted riding numbers.

Well, they had a weak parachute provincially.  And a *strong* parachute federally...but that was vs Iggy, remember...

[lilTommy]

I also think someone like Jones or another high profile candidate for the NDP could put the party over 20%

for London West looks like the PCs have nominated Ali Chahbar, lawyer a director with boys&girls club and Crime stoppers. Not sure he has the same caliber of experience as Sattler though, based on bios i would assume that Sattler is the higher profile candidate.
PCs (based on the last poll) are a head but only slightly in Southwestern ON vs the NDP, with the Liberals trailing.
London West i would say is more of a toss-up between the NDP and the PCs with advantage PCs. But again we would have given the advantage to the PCs in Kitchener-Waterloo also. Now this isn't the same highly charged, volatile, Dalton-still-in-charge atmosphere.

[Хahar 🤔]

Provincial by-election in Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair in Labrador today. My friend who lives in the riding tells me that the PCs are seen as having no chance to the extent that many Tory supporters are saying that they'll tactically vote NDP. (!!!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Provincial by-election in Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair in Labrador today. My friend who lives in the riding tells me that the PCs are seen as having no chance to the extent that many Tory supporters are saying that they'll tactically vote NDP. (!!!)

A) You have a friend in the riding

B) So, what... the NDP will lose by 50% instead of 65%?

[RogueBeaver]

Vic Toews will announce his retirement soon. Thereby opening up Provencher...

[Hatman 🍁]

Vic Toews will announce his retirement soon. Thereby opening up Provencher...

Wonder if he was worried about getting "primaried".

[Хahar 🤔]

Provincial by-election in Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair in Labrador today. My friend who lives in the riding tells me that the PCs are seen as having no chance to the extent that many Tory supporters are saying that they'll tactically vote NDP. (!!!)

A) You have a friend in the riding

B) So, what... the NDP will lose by 50% instead of 65%?

Yeah, one of the 3,000-odd voters in the riding is someone I know. The Internet is really something, isn't it?

Obviously the Liberals will win no matter what, but it would be interesting if the NDP finished second place here in a region where they've never ever had any strength whatsoever.