Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Another snoozer, but perhaps the NDP will make a run for it?

[lilTommy]

These are going to be by-elections where the opposition (NDP & Liberals) fight it out, while the tories will likely coast to hold Brandon-Souris and Provencher (I'm sure the NDP will put up a fight in each but are unlikely to win).

[MaxQue]

Disgusting.

That is proving than the government and railway companies are in the same bed and than Harper government is fully responsible for Lac-Mégantic accident.

They are cozy with the railway industry.

[mileslunn]

Disgusting.

That is proving than the government and railway companies are in the same bed and than Harper government is fully responsible for Lac-Mégantic accident.

They are cozy with the railway industry.

Not all railway companies are run by greedy CEOs.  The one who ran MMA has a bad track record and you will find those type in any industry.  Likewise even under state ownership cannot prevent accidents, after all the railway in Spain was state owned.  Essentially, like any industry you get a mix of CEOs and both state and private ownership have their advantages and disadvantages.

[mileslunn]

In terms of each one here are my thoughts

Bourassa - Solid Liberal

The Trudeau honeymoon is wearing off but not fully so while the NDP may very well take this in 2015 at the moment I suspect the Liberals should hold this fairly easily.  The BQ only won this once in 1993 and it was a lot more Francophone than today.  The Tories will likely get in single digits here.  It did however go PC in 1988, but off course most of Quebec did so not a relevant comparison.

Toronto Centre - Solid Liberal

The Liberals will win this by being competitive throughout the riding.  The Tories do well in Rosedale but will get clobbered in Cabbagetown and Regent Park, while the NDP should win those two, but get clobbered in Rosedale.  Why this is attractive for the NDP is under the new boundaries this riding may be far more favourable, especially if Rosedale is lopped off so getting a list of identified supporters can give the candidate a leg up in 2015.  The Tories aren't relative here although they probably will get over 10%.  Interestingly enough this went PC in the 70s and 80s but that was when they were far more Red Tory than today.  I somehow doubt David Crombie would be too comfortable with today's Tories.

Provencher - Solidly Tory

This was one of 18 ridings where the Tories cracked the 70% mark, so enough said.

Brandon-Souris - Solidly Tory

The NDP could do quite well in Brandon, but the problem is half the riding's population lives in the rural areas and the Tories tend to pile up massive majorities in those areas whereas even if the NDP wins the Brandon polls it won't be by a big margin.  Also with the Justin Trudeau honeymoon still winding down, I suspect the Liberals will do better than in 2011 although still come in third nonetheless.

[mileslunn]

Interestingly enough, I should add Provencher did go Liberal as recently as 1997, but considering they got in single digits last time around, I don't see this swinging back to them anytime soon.  Brandon-Souris went Liberal in 1993, but that was more due to the implosion of the PCs and the fact the Reform Party at that time was only really strong in BC and Alberta.  It did however go PC in 1997 and 2000 rather than the Reform/Alliance but that was mostly due to the fact the candidate was Rick Borotsik a former mayor of Brandon.  Essentially he got many of the moderate Reformers as well as many Liberals strategically voted for him to keep the Reform/Alliance out.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals won Provencher thanks to the Franco-Manitoban vote. They're all Tory voters now. The riding is more German though, and they are very conservative.

[adma]

Barring further candidate evidence, I'd hold off on "solid" for either Bourassa or TC.  Not ruling out "likely"; but, "solid" is pushing it...

[MaxQue]

Let's not forget than Coderre was very popular and well-known, so he had a significant personnal vote.

[lilTommy]

Let's not forget than Coderre was very popular and well-known, so he had a significant personnal vote.

Also, if Dubourg wins, he's not a local guy. He represents Viau which Hatman has already stated is in St.Michel-St.Leonard federal riding.
I'm waiting to see whom the NDP nominates before i pass judgment; the Liberals are still on honeymoon yes but the NDP has been recovering in some recent polls, and we can't forget the greens tend to perform well in by-elections are have a strong candidate who will pull mostly from the Liberals.

TC - again, not solid but leaning Liberal... the NDP has two strong potential candidates and the riding has been trending NDP. But the borders hurt the NDP; 30%+ maybe 40% i would say is the parties plateau with Rosedale in the mix

BS/Provencher - The NDP really need to focus on rural/west issues; the party has been doing a lot of work with the Lethbridge declaration which was is a targeted focus on western/rural issues and grassroots work. This is the time to put that work to test.

[RogueBeaver]

PSAC executive will seek the Dipper nomination in Bourassa.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just saw that. Turnouts Rousseau is also of Haitian ancestry, although judging by his appearance, only partial. (Lighter skin, but with obvious African features).

Anyways, three Haitians running is very interesting indeed.

[RogueBeaver]

Alec Castonguay has heard that there may be as many as 5 candidates, including an even bigger star from outside of Bourassa. Mulcair should be careful with the expectations game there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brian Topp?

It would be funny...

[DL]

Maybe the NDP will run Michaelle Jean!

[Hatman 🍁]

lol...

not like we haven't run a former GG before!

[MaxQue]

Brian Topp?

It would be funny...

I think he has already announced he would not run.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'm pretty sure that the link doesn't say that the candidate is from outside Bourassa, just that they are well-known even outside Bourassa. (A Francophone reader should feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RogueBeaver]

Nah, you're right. It was my assumption, not a direct translation there.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Nah, you're right. It was my assumption, not a direct translation there.

Oh OK, fair enough.

[trebor204]

lol...

not like we haven't run a former GG before!

Even Ed Schreyer can try again, this time in Provencher

[Hatman 🍁]

Who could it possibly be? No PM city councillor represents any of the riding. And, they wouldn't be that high profile...

lol...

not like we haven't run a former GG before!

Even Ed Schreyer can try again, this time in Provencher

lol. Better luck in Brandon-Souris.

[MaxQue]

Who could it possibly be? No PM city councillor represents any of the riding. And, they wouldn't be that high profile...

The rumor is someone from the TV.

[RogueBeaver]

Dippers are recruiting Stephane Moraille, Bran Van 3000's singer, for Bourassa.

[Hatman 🍁]

How big is "Bran Van 3000" ? I've barely heard of them.